Morgan Stanley - company.airbus.com · Morgan Stanley Airbus Commercial Update Mark Pearman Wright...

Morgan Stanley Airbus Commercial Update

Mark Pearman Wright

Head of Corporate & Investor Marketing

2012-09 Morgan Stanley Commercial update

V5

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Gross order comparison over the last 15 years


Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Airbus

Boeing

August

Annual gross orders


Deliveries comparison over the last 15 years


Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Airbus

Boeing

Annual deliveries

Smooth production increase following order intake


Airbus is the market leader


Delivery leadership follows order leadership

Gross orders

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Deliveries

Orders

% share since 1995


2012 Airbus orders, deliveries and backlog

A320 Family 346 285 3,398 current engine option 143 285 1,939

new engine option 203 1,459

A330/A340 49 65 325

A350 XWB 16 558

A380 4 14 176

Total 415 364 4,457


Data end August 2012

Orders Deliveries Backlog


Order backlogs


Combined backlog of 8,510 aircraft

Data end August 2012

Airbus Boeing

A320ceo 1,939 737NG 2,111

A320neo 1,459 737 MAX 649

A330/A340 325 767/777 414

A350 XWB 558 787 800

A380 176 747 79

4,457 4,053

The market-leading A380 Five years in Service



A380 values steadily increasing


Average of first half published values of : ASG, AVITAS, AVAC, ASCEND and MBA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

New Aircraft Base Value evolution from 2008-2012

Datum

777-300ER

A380


Capital markets embrace A380 value

Emirates A380 financing deal (July 2012)

• Debt-financing for 4 A380s sourced with EETC in US capital markets

• Doric Alpha: borrower and issuer of equipment notes, leasing aircraft to Emirates.

• First EETC using A380 as collateral

• Very successful (3 times oversubscribed)

• A3 rating from Moodys

• All A380s in service are financed by usual market sources

Banks and capital markets see the A380 as a strong asset

A330 – A350XWB: Complementary twins

Data to end August 2012


A330: ~1,200 firm orders

A350XWB: 558 firm orders


A350-800 to -900

Alafco 12

TAM 12

ILFC 6

Grupo Synergy 10

CIT 3

TAP 12

Asiana 2

Total 57

787-8 to -9 conversions

Air New Zealand 4

ALAFCO 4

LCAL 5

Continental 12

ILFC 40

Vietnam Airlines 16

Air China 15

ANA 19

KAL 10

JAL 10

Total 135

A350 XWB / 787 order conversions


A definite trend towards larger aircraft

End August 2012

188 aircraft upsized so far


A350-1000: Optimised dimensions

Designed as an intermediate twin-aisle


Wing span and aircraft length: 2 key dimensions

Code E capability ensures access to more than 1200 gates at the top 50 airports

Only the larger A380 is an efficient user of the fewer Code F gates * ICAO airport compatibility regulations

76m*

10.5m*

65m*

7.5m*


A330, A350 XWB families are complementary


Complete fleet solutions, matching network requirements today and tomorrow

Seats

Range

A350-1000

A350-900

A330-300

A330-200

A350-800


A330 – a record breaker


More than 780 A330s sold since 787 launch*

Open demand for ~500 A330s thru’ 2020 *26th of April 2004. Net orders as of end August 2012

Source GMF 2012 – Open Demand beyond: current backlogs & for new models maximum production capacity

781


A330 Enhancements beyond 235t MTOW


400nm more range, 2% less fuel,

1,300t less CO2 per year per aircraft

Increase to 240t MTOW Aerodynamic package

Fuel burn reduction 1%

Load Alleviation

Function

Engine fuel burn

improvement 1%


3 years later 0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

A330, The right aircraft, right now!


A330 can generate significantly more value than a 787-9

Based on 15 year period to 2025, 0% fuel escalation, 3% cost escalation, 2% revenue escalation, 10% discount rate, excludes ownership

75% passenger load factor, 50% of cargo capacity is filled, 2.5 USD/USg Fuel price, 2000nm sector, Typical Airline 2012 rules

2027

Delta PV

+$63m

Cumulative contribution to profit ($ millions)

The best keeps getting better



A320 Family – Fleet evolution by region


3,400 order backlog

Total: 8,600 firm orders Source: Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service and stored Passenger fleet.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

China

Asia

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Latin America and Caribbean

Australasia

North America

A320Family fleet size evolution by region

5,200

deliveries


90% single-aisle fleets still with their initial operators

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Owned Leased Owned Leased

1 operator

2 operators

3 operators

4+ operators

Page 21

Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service passenger fleet.

Owned includes finance leased

All data cleaned for mergers

Similar numbers of aircraft have moved from their initial operator despite a larger A320 fleet with more on operating lease

In-service fleet (Year of Manufacturer 1997-2011)

Fle

et S

ize

/ s

tatu

s e

nd

of 2

011

99%

77% Still at 1st

operator Still at 1st

operator

Single aisle movements and lease placements - CSMI - Ref. PR1247291 - Issue 1

98%

Still at 1st

operator

81%

Still at 1st

operator

Same

behaviour

as 737NG

Better

retention at

1st lessee

737NG series A320 Family


Sharklets flight test campaign progressing well

Sharklets ahead of target

with 1st delivery Dec 2012

• MSN1 flight test completed with 380 hrs

• Line-fit A320 CFM & IAE flight test

nearing completion after 170 hrs

• A320CFM Type Certification

end November

• Next: A321CFM 1st flight October

A319CFM 1st flight November

More

range

+100nm

Better take-off

More

payload

+500kg

Fuel

savings

up to 3.5%

Lower cost

Less CO2


Strong customer endorsement for Sharklets

Orders from 40 customers worldwide


The A320neo is real

The A320neo is on track

Sharklets New engines

• More than 500hrs of flight testing

• Fuel savings confirmed

•1st pylon part produced

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 26

A320neo – 15% Fuel burn improvement...


… across the whole Family

• Double digit reduction in fuel burn

A319 A319neo A320 A320neo A321neo A321


Cash Operating Cost Comparison


Which aircraft is 20% more expensive per seat

than the A321neo? 3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

Relative C.O.C. per trip (%)

A321neo

A321ceo

Relative C.O.C

per seat (%)


Cash Operating Cost Comparison


The 787 is much less efficient than the A321neo on routes <3000nm

3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

Relative C.O.C. per trip (%)

A321neo

A321ceo

Relative C.O.C

per seat (%)

787-8


A320neo has been clearly endorsed by the Industry

Mid July 2012

A320neo is the preferred market option

Undisclosed

1429 firm orders from 27 customers 650 firm orders from 6 customers


Airbus today

A320ceo Sharklet EIS on track end 2012

A320neo firm sales approaching 1,500

A330 production increasing, with operator base nearing 100

A350 XWB final assembly started, with ~550 orders to fulfill

A380 firmly installed as the aircraft of preference wherever flown



© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the

delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be

used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting

grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.


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