ISFHAN Equity Research | Indonesia 12 August 2019 Morning Call Market PULSE Research Team (+62 21) 2970 9430 Key Indonesia Indices Close Chg % Chg JCI 6,282 7.5 0.1 Agricultural 1,374 22.6 1.7 Mining 1,628 21.9 1.4 Basic Industry 834 4.9 0.6 Misc Industry 1,210 -17.7 -1.4 Consumer 2,358 -0.3 0.0 Property 483 -0.4 -0.1 Infrastructure 1,197 -1.8 -0.2 Finance 1,283 3.1 0.2 Trade & Svc 801 -0.6 -0.1 Manufacturing 1,496 -1.0 -0.1 Latest Previous Vol (b) 10.5 11.2 Value (IDR t) 5.6 0.2 Top % gainers Close % Chg INCO 3,250 4.5 ANTM 1,065 4.4 JPFA 1,610 2.9 Top % losers Close % Chg SCMA 1,285 -3.4 BBNI 7,925 -2.5 ASII 6,775 -1.8 Most active Close % Chg TLKM 4,210 0.0 BBRI 4,290 0.9 BBCA 30,025 -0.1 Market Data Latest % Chg IDR/USD 14,223 -0.2 Dow Jones Index 26,287 -0.3 S&P 500 2,919 -0.7 Oil Price (USD/bbl) 54 -0.7 Gold Price (USD/oz) 1,497 0.3 Coal Price (USD/mt) 68 0.1 CPO Price(MYR/mt) 2,141 3.3 Economic Statistics Latest *Previous GDP growth YoY (%) 5.05 5.07 CPI inflation (%) 3.32 3.28 7-day Reverse Repo rate (%) 5.75 6.00 *Previous month for CPI & 7-day Reverse Repo rate, quarter for GDP OCBC Sekuritas Key Ideas Trade: Indonesia plans higher dairy tariff to retaliate EU Nickel: Indonesia’s president seeks input on early nickel ore export ban Stocks to Watch TPMA IJ: Co struggles to handle coal transport demand AALI IJ: Co prepares US$ 100 million standby loan in anticipating CPO prices NISP IJ: Co records 2% loan growth in 1H19 BBRI IJ: Co cuts loan interest rate by 50 bps Daily Chart Views JCI Index – Fall: Potential correction as last price still below near term resistance (R: 6,300 | S: 6,210) LSIP – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the forming of Two White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,220 | S:1,125 – Entry:1,160-1,175) BNGA – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the forming of White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,130 | S:1,050 – Entry:1,065-1,085) WTON – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though forming Black candle pattern but decrease in volume ( R:570 | S:500 – Entry:515-525) ASII – Buy on Weakness: Potential to fall supported by the forming of Tweezer Top pattern ( R:7,000 | S:6,425 – Entry:6,500-6,625) HMSP – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though forming of Black Marabozu but decrease in volume ( R:2,980 | S:2,830 – Entry:2,850-2,870) Sources: PTOS,IDNfinancials, Bloomberg and other sources
Transcript
ISFHAN
Equity Research | Indonesia
12 August 2019
Morning Call
Market PULSE Research Team
(+62 21) 2970 9430
Key Indonesia Indices
Close Chg % Chg
JCI 6,282 7.5 0.1
Agricultural 1,374 22.6 1.7
Mining 1,628 21.9 1.4
Basic Industry 834 4.9 0.6
Misc Industry 1,210 -17.7 -1.4
Consumer 2,358 -0.3 0.0
Property 483 -0.4 -0.1
Infrastructure 1,197 -1.8 -0.2
Finance 1,283 3.1 0.2
Trade & Svc 801 -0.6 -0.1
Manufacturing 1,496 -1.0 -0.1
Latest Previous Vol (b) 10.5 11.2
Value (IDR t) 5.6 0.2
Top % gainers Close % Chg
INCO 3,250 4.5
ANTM 1,065 4.4
JPFA 1,610 2.9
Top % losers Close % Chg
SCMA 1,285 -3.4
BBNI 7,925 -2.5
ASII 6,775 -1.8
Most active Close % Chg
TLKM 4,210 0.0
BBRI 4,290 0.9
BBCA 30,025 -0.1
Market Data Latest % Chg
IDR/USD 14,223 -0.2 Dow Jones Index
26,287 -0.3 S&P 500
2,919 -0.7 Oil Price (USD/bbl)
54 -0.7 Gold Price (USD/oz)
1,497 0.3 Coal Price (USD/mt)
68 0.1 CPO Price(MYR/mt) 2,141 3.3
Economic Statistics Latest *Previous
GDP growth YoY (%) 5.05 5.07
CPI inflation (%) 3.32 3.28
7-day Reverse Repo rate (%) 5.75 6.00
*Previous month for CPI & 7-day Reverse Repo rate, quarter for GDP
OCBC Sekuritas
Key Ideas
Trade: Indonesia plans higher dairy tariff to retaliate EU
Nickel: Indonesia’s president seeks input on early nickel ore export ban
Stocks to Watch
TPMA IJ: Co struggles to handle coal transport demand
AALI IJ: Co prepares US$ 100 million standby loan in anticipating CPO prices
NISP IJ: Co records 2% loan growth in 1H19
BBRI IJ: Co cuts loan interest rate by 50 bps
Daily Chart Views
JCI Index – Fall: Potential correction as last price still below
near term resistance (R: 6,300 | S: 6,210)
LSIP – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the forming
of Two White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,220 | S:1,125 – Entry:1,160-1,175)
BNGA – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the
forming of White candle pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,130 | S:1,050 – Entry:1,065-1,085)
WTON – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though
forming Black candle pattern but decrease in volume ( R:570 | S:500 – Entry:515-525)
ASII – Buy on Weakness: Potential to fall supported by the
forming of Tweezer Top pattern ( R:7,000 | S:6,425 – Entry:6,500-6,625)
HMSP – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound though forming
of Black Marabozu but decrease in volume ( R:2,980 | S:2,830 – Entry:2,850-2,870)
Sources: PTOS,IDNfinancials, Bloomberg and other sources
OCBC Sekuritas Research Indonesia Equities
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Market Snapshot
Global Market: Shares in Asia traded lower Monday morning following a volatile week for global markets last week as growing trade war fears dented investor sentiment. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4% in early trade, South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.12%. Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.18%. Markets in Japan, India and Singapore are closed for public holidays. Trump told reporters on Friday the U.S. is not ready to strike a trade deal with China. “China wants to do something, but I’m not doing anything yet,” Trump said. “Twenty-five years of abuse. I’m not ready so fast.” Both sides are set to resume trade negotiations in Washington in early September. At the same time, a new 10% tariff on additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods are due to go into effect beginning Sept. 1. All eyes continue to be on the yuan, with Beijing fixing the yuan weaker than the psychologically important level of 7 per dollar last week with the imminent new tariffs. The offshore yuan traded at 7.1016 against the dollar on Monday morning. The U.S. dollar traded at 97.507 against a basket of its peers Monday morning, after coming off levels near 98.00 at the start of the previous week. Oil prices traded down, with U.S. crude off 0.51% to $54.23 a barrel and global benchmark Brent down 0.53% to $58.23. Last week, energy prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday supported by a drop in European inventories and OPEC output cuts. That followed even as the International Energy Agency reported demand growth was at its lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Source: CNBC
News Headlines
Indonesia plans higher dairy tariff to retaliate EU
Trade Ministry is seeking to raise the duty for dairy products to the same level of EU’s palm biodiesel import tariff of 8%-18%, but it’s also open to raise further to 20%-25%, according to a top official.The policy meant as retaliation over EU’s plan on palm diesel import tariff which affects Indonesia among others, Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita tells reporters in Jakarta on Friday.Indonesia may need to look for other dairy product suppliers, such as Australia, New Zealand, U.S. or India.“EU can impose something to us as long as the parameter is fair, but if the parameter is not fair, then that is an act of protectionism and trade war. We can’t just be quiet when there is unfairness,” says Lukita. Source:Bloomberg
Indonesia’s president seeks input on early nickel ore export ban
President Joko Widodo is asking suggestions from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on the possibility of early nickel ore export ban, according to a top official.The plan requires thoughtful consideration as it will hurt exports, Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita tells reporters in Jakarta on Friday. Source:Bloomberg
Trans Power struggles to handle coal transport demand
PT Trans Power Marine Tbk (TPMA) admits that it has been struggling to handle the ever-rising coal transport demand.“We had to rent vessels because our utilisation had reached 100%,” TPMA Finance Director and Corporate Secretary Rudi Sutiono told Kontan.co.id, Thursday (8/8).Currently, the company’s fleet consists of 35 tugboat and barge sets as well as three crane barges. High demand has forced the company to lease four to five tugboat and barge sets.Thus, TPMA plans to acquire one new tugboat and barge set as a strategy to increase the company’s net profit. “Leasing means we have to pay rents and causes our profit margin to drop,” said Mr Sutiono. Source:IDNfinancial&Kontan
Astra Agro prepares US$ 100 million standby loan in anticipating CPO prices
To anticipate the company's performance due to declining crude palm oil prices, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) has pocketed a standby loan worth US$ 100 million or equivalent to Rp 1.43 trillion.Astra Agro Lestari's President Director, Santosa said that the funding process was almost complete. "Almost closing, the value is US$ 100 million," Santosa said as quoted by CNBC Indonesia.The loan has a tenor of five years. In 2019, the company will allocate capital expenditure of Rp 1.5 trillion. Source:IDNfinancial&CNBC Indonesia.
Bank OCBC NISP records 2% loan growth in 1H19
PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP) recorded loan growth of 2% year on year (yoy) in the first semester of 2019. NISP President Director Parwati Surjaudaja said that the loan realisation is the lowest during her 29-year career in the bank. According to Ms Surjaudaja, the slowdown was caused by fluctuating macroeconomic conditions both domestically and overseas in the first six months of the year. Nonetheless, the company remains optimistic that it can achieve this year’s loan growth target of 10%.As reported by Kontan.co.id, due to the loan growth NISP’s net interest income (NII) only grew 2% yoy to Rp 3.21 trillion, while its net interest margin (NIM) ratio was corrected 0.2% to 4% yoy. Source:IDNfinancial&Kontan
BBRI cuts loan interest rate by 50 bps
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) or BRI has lowered its loan interest rate for micro, retail, and consumer segments by 50 basis points (bps) as a response to Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy of slashing rates by 25 bps.BRI CEO Suprajarto said that lower loan interest rate is expected to boost the company’s loan growth in the micro and retail segments.“In addition to loan digitisation to accelerate loan services, BRI is also adjusting rates so that we can have more room for higher loan growth with a quick loan process and affordable rates,” said Mr Suprajarto in an official statement, Thursday (8/8). Source:IDNfinancial
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