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2-Jul-2013
Morning Matters
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WHAT’S INSIDE
On The Platter
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB: FVTHB 254-Buy): Company Update
KBANK’s 2Q13 results are likely to show steady growth in loans, non-
interest/net fee income and NIM, while its provisions are likely to normalize
from 1Q13’s one-off counter-cyclical uptick. Management has guided for
two exceptional transactions with a negative net effect of ~1.2% on our
FY13 earnings forecast. However, as the impact is immaterial and deemed
non-core, we keep our forecasts as well as THB254.6 FV (ROE: 21.9%,
COE: 11.0%, growth rate: 5.0%). Still a BUY.
MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
CK Power pulls plug on IPO over volatility.
AoT pushes for passenger fee hike.
Telenor to launch Myanmar 3G.
Rice back at Bt15,000.
Digital TV licences.
BOT to issue 5 new banking licenses. ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
Thailand: Lowest inflation in June clouds consumer confidence.
Indonesia: May inflation rate eases to 5.47% y-o-y.
China: Manufacturing gauges fall as slowdown persists.
Japan: Manufacturers optimistic for first time in two years.
EU: Manufacturing output contracts less than estimated.
US: Construction spending rises, led by residential projects.
US: Manufacturing rebounds as orders pick up.
SET Intra-Day Graph
Source: Bloomberg
Key Market Indices (28 June 2013)
Value Chg % Chg % YTD
SET 1451.90 5.45 0.4% 4.3%
SET50 982.99 4.03 0.4% 4.0%
SET100 2167.21 7.75 0.4% 4.3%
Dow Jones 14974.96 -49.53 -0.3% 14.3%
S&P500 1614.96 1.76 0.1% 13.2%
Nasdaq 3434.49 32.63 1.0% 13.7%
FTSE 6307.78 64.38 1.0% 7.0%
FSSTI 3140.93 22.90 0.7% -0.8%
Hang Seng 20803.29 363.21 1.8% -8.2%
Nikkei 13946.42 732.87 5.5% 34.0%
KLCI 1775.14 23.57 1.3% 5.1%
SHANGHAI SE 1995.24 45.23 2.3% -12.1%
JCI 4777.45 101.70 2.2% 10.7%
SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F
PE (x) 14.2 16.7 13.4
P/BV (x) 1.8 2.3 2.2
Yield (%) 4.1 3.0 3.3
Key Statistics
SET Value by investor Type: Daily
Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)
Institution 4,467.98 7,540.13 -3,072.15
Proprietary 6,746.96 7,246.36 -499.40
Foreign 19,073.67 13,866.84 5,206.82
Retail 28,627.12 30,262.39 -1,635.27
SET Value by investor Type
MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 28,617.80 70,222.66
Proprietary -2,547.69 -6,934.86
Foreign -55,492.29 -76,584.55
Retail 29,422.17 13,296.75
SET50 Index Future
Long Short Net MTD YTD
Institution 7,984 8,156 -172 5,352 13,205
Foreign 6,079 5,437 642 1,579 -12,840
Local 13,726 14,196 -470 -6,931 -365
Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%)
167.9 -1,798.5 -2,523.8 -221.2
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Media Highlights
CK Power pulls plug on IPO over volatility.
CK Power (CKP), a power development arm of the construction firm Ch. Karnchang Plc, has emerged as the first company
this year to put off plans for an initial public offering after a wild swing in the Thai stock market. CKP has decided to postpone
indefinitely its planned IPO, previously set for this month. Had it proceeded with the plan, CKP would have been the first Thai
holding company whose main business is abroad to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Asia Plus Securities serves as
one of CKP's underwriters. Others are Bualuang Securities, KT Zmico Securities and SCB Securities. The Thai stock market
has plunged by 12% from the year's peak of 1,643.43 at the market close on May 21 on signs that the US Federal Reserve is
prepared to scale down its stimulus scheme.(Bangkok Post)
AoT pushes for passenger fee hike.
Airports of Thailand (AoT) urged authorities to allow it to hike the passenger service charge (PSC) at airports for the first time
in six years. The state-owned firm, which runs the kingdom's six key airports including Suvarnabhumi, wants the long sought-
after rise to be 800 baht, up from 700, for international passengers, and 150 baht, up from 100, for domestic travellers. The
fee hike would take effect at the end of this year. If approved by the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), it would result in 2
billion baht in incremental revenue for AoT, which already booked the increase in its 2013 revenue projection. PSC accounts
for 45% of AoT's revenue, or roughly 13 billion baht a year.(Bangkok Post)
Telenor to launch Myanmar 3G.
Telenor Group, the major shareholder of Thailand's Total Access Communication (DTAC), plans to introduce commercial third-generation (3G) mobile service in Myanmar next year after winning a licence in a highly competitive tender. The Norwegian firm aims to complete the nationwide roll-out of its 2G and 3G network using high-speed packet access (HSPA) technology within five years under an undisclosed investment. Telenor will also install 4G-ready base stations using long-term evolution technology for Myanmar to match the sophistication of leading networks worldwide, said Glenn Mandelid, communications director of Telenor Asia.(Bangkok Post) Rice back at Bt15,000.
The Yingluck government has given in to pressure from farmers by maintained the Bt15,000 per tonne pledging price for the second rice crop in the 2012/13 harvest year. But it has left the price for the next harvest year open for a cut. After the National Rice Policy Committee meeting yesterday, Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the decision was based on the finance available, as well as the well-supported stockpile release plan by new Commerce Minister Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisal. But the price for next year would be reset, taking the global market and forex rate moves into consideration. The price would be announced some time ahead of the next harvest year, so farmers can make a decision if they want to grow more rice or switch to other crops that could generate more cash. (The Nation) Digital TV licences.
Around 32 broadcasters, telecom operators, and content providers yesterday took part in the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC)'s pre-mock up auction of 24 licences to commercially operate digital terrestrial TV broadcasting service. Among them are Nation Broadcasting Corp, MCOT, InTouch, TrueVisions, Media Studio, Channel 7, GMM Grammy, Mono Production, RS, Spring News, Voice TV, Thairath TV, Post Publishing. The other is Bangkok Media Broadcasting, which is mainly owned by Prasert Prasathongosot, founder and CEO of Bangkok Airways, which is interested to bid for a HD licence. The committee is expected to open for prospect bidders to buy the bid document in August and to call the bid in September or October. Of total 24 licences, seven are High Definition variety channel licences, seven for Standard Definition (SD) variety channel licences, seven SD news channel licences, and three SD kid channel licences.(The Nation) BOT to issue 5 new banking licenses.
Foreign banks are allowed a bigger presence in Thailand, with the invitation to set up subsidiaries that can open up to 20
branches and 20 off-premise ATMs. Bank of Thailand on Friday issued the announcement, inviting interested foreign banks to
establish subsidiaries here. Licenses will be awarded to five banks. Applications are welcomed from July 2 until the end of this
year. The application review process is expected to complete by the middle of 2014. The newly incorporated subsidiaries
must have at least Bt20 billion minimum paid-up capital. (The Nation)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Economic Highlights
Construction spending in the US climbed in May, led by the strongest expenditures on residential projects in more than four years. Outlays grew by 0.5% to an USD874.9bn annualized rate, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. Spending on housing climbed to the highest level since October 2008. A pickup in residential real estate is helping to offset weakness in non-residential construction, giving economic growth a lift. (Bloomberg)
American manufacturing rebounded in June as orders picked up, while factory reports from Japan to the UK pointed to stabilization in the global economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s US manufacturing index climbed to a three-month high of 50.9 from 49 in May, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said yesterday. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The production gauge rose to 53.4 last month from 48.6 in May. A measure of new orders increased to 51.9 from 48.8, and the gauge of export demand advanced to 54.5 from 51 the month prior. (Bloomberg)
Thailand: Lowest inflation in June clouds consumer confidence.
Inflation in June crawled at its slowest pace in almost four years, prompting concern for spending confidence among
consumers, although the moderate price rises here were within the scope of other countries in the region. The ministry
reported that the consumer price index in June grew 2.25% y-o-y, the lowest reading in 43 months since November 2009, due
mainly to the mild increase in foods and goods prices. The CPI was up 0.15% from the previous month. YTD, inflation rose
2.7%, below the ministry's target range of 2.8-3.4% this year. (Bloomberg)
Indonesia: May inflation rate eases to 5.47% y-o-y.
Indonesia's annual inflation rate index unexpectedly eased in May, in line with soft prices for food and jewellery, but worries
about inflationary pressure remained ahead of a possible government decision to cut fuel subsidies to narrow a budget deficit.
Headline inflation was 5.47%, versus April's 5.57%. On a monthly basis, May headline inflation fell 0.03%, compared with
April's 0.1% contraction. Bank Indonesia expects inflation to be around 3.5-5.5% this year, but has said it could rise as high as
7.76% if the government does raise subsidized fuel prices.(Reuters)
China: Manufacturing gauges fall as slowdown persists.
Two gauges of China’s manufacturing fell in June, underscoring a sustained slowdown in the nation’s economy as policy
makers seek to rein in financial speculation and real-estate prices. An official Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 50.1,
the lowest level in four months, from 50.8, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
said yesterday. A private PMI from HSBC Holdings and Markit Economics was 48.2, the weakest since September.
(Bloomberg)
Japan: Manufacturers optimistic for first time in two years.
Big Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic for the first time since September 2011, indicating confidence in Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe’s reflationary policies even after stock market volatility. The quarterly Tankan index for large manufacturers rose to
plus four in June from minus eight in March, the Bank of Japan said yesterday. A positive figure means optimists outnumber
pessimists. Large companies from all industries plan to increase capital spending 5.5% in this fiscal year as the government
looks to promote business investment.(Bloomberg)
EU: Manufacturing output contracts less than estimated.
Euro-area manufacturing output contracted less than initially estimated in June, adding to signs the currency bloc’s economy is
beginning to emerge from a record-long recession. A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area increased to 48.8 last
month from 48.3 in May, Markit Economics. The gauge has been below 50, indicating contraction, since July 2011. The PMI
data followed an encouraging euro-zone economic confidence report for June that recorded the biggest jump since July
2010.(Bloomberg)
US: Construction spending rises, led by residential projects.
US: Manufacturing rebounds as orders pick up.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Outperform
Current Target Upside/
Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f
ADVANC Buy 282.00 293.00 3.9 22.5 4.4
CPN Buy 45.00 73.00 62.2 16.0 1.4
DTAC Buy 115.00 122.00 6.1 20.6 3.0
INTUCH Trading Buy 87.00 104.00 19.5 18.4 4.9
THAI Buy 24.70 42.60 72.5 11.6 3.2
CPF Buy 25.75 38.00 47.6 31.4 2.2 .
Underperform
Current Target Upside/
Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f
BJC Sell 50.00 57.00 14.0 25.5 1.3
TVO Buy 18.40 28.00 52.2 7.4 9.3
OISHI Sell 123.00 130.00 5.7 36.3 2.8
BIGC Neutral 186.50 198.00 6.2 24.5 1.2
MAJOR Sell 21.00 18.50 -11.9 19.9 4.5
28 27 26 25 24 28 27 26 25 24
1 ADVANC 638.5 341.8 553.5 587.8 129.1 MAKRO -167.1 -53.9 218.9 12.1 4.8 INTUCH 6,469.2 KBANK -6,167.9 INTUCH 41,769.9 SCC -7,996.2
2 KBANK 610.0 909.3 -1,507.1 -1,307.5 -292.5 CK -108.1 149.2 -16.3 -9.9 -9.5 ADVANC 4,733.3 PTTGC -1,490.5 ADVANC 13,128.6 BANPU -3,134.8
3 INTUCH 406.2 329.1 371.5 450.1 1,575.3 GLOBAL -77.5 37.2 -3.5 -0.3 -4.6 DTAC 1,752.0 SCC -1,268.6 DTAC 11,914.4 LH -2,533.6
4 KTB 331.8 137.9 1.5 21.3 -134.9 TMB -44.8 -34.8 -50.3 25.2 14.3 MAKRO 1,058.2 BAY -1,208.9 PTTEP 7,591.5 KBANK -1,697.7
5 PTT 283.4 112.4 107.7 -74.0 -232.3 MALEE -19.1 -3.4 8.4 -1.9 2.3 MINT 780.7 PTT -940.5 PTT 7,246.0 SIRI -1,167.0
6 SCB 281.8 -63.8 245.9 -175.6 -400.7 CENTEL -17.8 25.2 1.7 -5.7 -7.4 ROBINS 672.8 PTTEP -832.1 PTTGC 6,915.1 DEMCO -684.4
7 BBL 257.8 172.9 25.9 -84.1 146.0 BIGC -17.6 23.2 -4.4 40.3 12.3 GLOW 543.1 BBL -720.2 BAY 6,829.1 CK -575.3
8 SCC 255.5 -136.3 -210.4 -78.7 -61.6 SPCG -11.4 14.6 -16.5 -26.1 -0.3 STEC 494.7 KTB -653.5 MAKRO 4,186.1 UV -435.8
9 CPALL 207.3 -8.5 -36.8 -98.5 -104.7 HEMRAJ -11.2 8.8 -3.7 0.7 -13.0 SPALI 486.6 LPN -649.4 TMB 3,788.8 IRPC -360.2
10 BAY 188.0 119.0 -86.6 -159.1 91.0 AIM -10.1 -0.0 0.0 4.7 -0.0 BEC 435.1 BGH -615.2 TOP 3,470.0 RML -328.8
11 PTTEP 174.6 -10.9 -258.2 1.6 -157.3 TISCO -9.9 -7.7 11.5 -77.4 -36.8 CPN 418.6 AOT -553.4 BIGC 3,192.2 BLA -295.1
12 PTTGC 162.0 11.4 46.1 -19.7 -15.1 MBK -8.3 -5.9 1.3 -6.6 -0.3 TUF 406.2 SCB -480.0 CPALL 3,002.9 ASP -266.0
13 CPN 138.1 -15.4 -35.1 218.7 224.5 DELTA -7.4 13.7 31.7 0.1 57.8 THAI 379.4 QH -471.0 TCAP 2,893.6 QH -249.5
14 BGH 136.6 99.1 75.8 16.4 -75.8 SCCC -5.8 8.8 16.0 1.4 3.0 SIRI 355.0 TISCO -447.4 THAI 2,800.2 MINT-W4 -238.0
15 MINT 122.9 80.7 15.0 -12.1 -64.2 NWR -5.7 0.3 0.7 -0.4 -3.3 DELTA 314.9 BTS -383.1 CPN 2,680.8 STPI -198.4
16 SIRI 91.6 37.5 113.3 17.0 4.3 LOXLEY -5.1 13.0 4.9 -1.7 6.8 HMPRO 307.2 JAS -321.1 SPALI 2,617.7 LRH -197.0
17 TCAP 82.1 88.1 170.9 50.6 0.6 PTL -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -2.7 -3.5 LH 195.5 THCOM -301.4 MINT 2,591.0 TRC -196.0
18 TICON 69.9 44.1 30.2 25.1 23.2 CNS -2.6 -1.8 0.0 -0.0 0.0 THRE 193.6 CPALL -234.2 BBL 2,539.0 GUNKUL -176.5
19 HMPRO 65.4 43.9 4.0 -12.5 5.4 SPALI -2.6 18.6 57.1 8.8 -7.4 BIGC 170.3 CPF -225.8 TUF 2,487.2 NOBLE -159.2
20 GLOW 62.8 91.8 21.2 69.9 13.0 MFEC -2.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 BCP 157.8 SCCC -219.4 CPF 2,181.3 SINGER -154.1
% % of % of
Turn. paidup paidup
1 TMB 22.92 1 TISCO-P 66.16 65.86
2 BAY 35.14 2 BBL 30.57 29.99
3 IEC 5.04 3 KBANK 27.54 28.50
4 SIRI 10.82 4 SPALI 23.17 17.94
5 KTB 10.43 5 E-W1 21.12 22.27
6 AIM 4.57 6 INTUCH 20.62 5.41
7 TRUE 8.04 7 THRE 20.28 15.50
8 LH 41.48 8 SPCG-W1 18.61 13.31
9 HEMRAJ 51.55 9 LPN 18.16 21.73
10 QH 5.61 10 GOLD-W1 17.71 14.87
11 BLAND 0.56 11 LH 17.28 21.18
12 PLE 8.36 12 TWFP 16.15 24.77
13 GEN-W4 1.93 13 DTAC 15.94 13.33
14 IRPC 12.56 14 TCAP 14.90 12.60
15 JAS 3.17 15 THIP 14.50 12.64
16 MINT 27.78 16 AP 14.37 12.92
17 HMPRO 5.88 17 BAY 14.19 13.89
18 INTUCH 9.70 18 PRANDA 13.75 14.59
19 SPALI 29.74 19 LALIN 13.72 13.53
20 KBANK 30.05 20 TISCO 13.34 13.69
Source : SET.OR.TH
6,972,500
-3,480,112
7,549,200
6,498,200
2,566,171 10,115,371
5,114,900
13,580,50010,276,500
7,818,700 2,125,500
13,180,700
8,480,122
9,147,800 4,032,900
10,999,4004,501,200
5,000,010 13,480,132
8,469,600 6,497,000 14,966,600 1,972,600
10,717,500 3,614,800 14,332,300
8,000,000 1,997,000
7,102,700
3,304,000
377,396,684 315,525,949 2,367,811,000
1,277,816,397 190,373,980 161,065,653
4,656,000
843,803,210
1,159,700 1,011,300
410,889,679 4,983,029
99,645,251 800,621,625
9,944,200 5,693,200
55,906,500 59,270,000
113,181,600
106,812,247 3,199,425
-172,3924,434,892 8,697,392
8,533,175
6,719,900 2,063,900
5,866,300 2,666,875
4,262,500
8,783,800
825,000,000
406,666,954
2,859,920,138
861,845,002
111,592,900
367,964,647
6,074,143,747
2,123,251,472 10,025,921,523 1,732,119,793
1,535,416 2,354,634 9,506,055
1,475,698,768
418,421,323
268,010,336 320,609,239
74,114,598 74,970,598
3,512,494,860
279,999,581
712,351,165 544,461,149
52,106,100 37,278,800
661,290,001 173,363,101
10,579,800
10,048,300 9,097,977
2,564,000 20,245,300
26,237,484 16,355,616
19,146,277 950,323
22,809,300 -17,681,300 3,206,420,305
21,296,550 4,940,934
17,905,300 -3,254,300
14,936,400 7,224,000 22,160,400 7,712,400
7,325,500
1,716,553,249
-48,716,504
347,000,000
2,393,260,193
397,781,292
77,281,246 73,282,042
28,918,100 307,949,569 31,960,100 3,042,000 35,002,100
572,486,791 5,426,642
659,212,097 682,155,834
583,586,819 24,756,858 54,940,358
198,000 48,914,504 49,112,504
NetBuy Sell Total
1,908,842,894
35,329,000 54,892,396 22,400 22,300 90,221,396 -19,563,396
30,183,500
33,858
2-Jan-13
Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell
2 Jan- 28 Jun 133-28 Jun 13
2 July 2013
Jun13 Jun 13
Total Volume Shares
(Last)
NVDR Shrs. Paid up CapitalNVDR Shrs.
28-Jun-13
Most Active Volume (shares) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)
NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date
Most Active Values (Btmn)
THAI NVDR : Top Ranking
See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM
Platform 1
Company Update, 2 July 2013
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) Buy (Maintained) Financial - Banks Target Price: THB254
Market Cap: USD14,712m Price: THB191
Retaining Growth Targets
Macro
3.00
Risks
2.00
Growth
2.00
Value
3.00
84
88
92
95
99
103
107
110
114
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Kasikornbank Plc (KBANK TB)
Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jul-12
Aug
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan-1
3
Mar-
13
May-1
3
Vo
l m
Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 1,803m/59.7m
Cons. Upside (%) 24.6
Upside (%) 33.0
52-wk Price low/high (THB) 160 - 221
Free float (%) 69
Shareholders (%)
Thai NVDR Co Ltd 28.7
State Street Bank and Trust 7.9
State Street Bank Europe 4.5
Shariah compliant
Keith Wee 603 9207 7638
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Net interest income (THBm) 46,744 56,491 63,581 70,618 77,500
Reported net profit (THBm) 20,047 24,226 35,260 43,901 49,754
Net profit growth (%) 36.1 20.8 45.5 24.5 13.3
Recurrent net profit (THBm) 20,047 24,226 35,260 43,901 49,754
Consensus EPS (THB) 8.4 10.1 14.7 17.5 20.3
EPS (THB) 8.4 10.1 14.7 18.3 20.8
DPS (THB) 2.50 2.50 4.42 5.50 6.24
Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.9 3.3
Return on average equity (%) 15.7 16.7 20.8 21.9 21.3
Return on average assets (%) 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1
P/E (x) 22.8 18.9 13.0 10.4 9.2
P/B (x) 3.39 2.95 2.47 2.12 1.82
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
KBANK’s 2Q13 results are likely to show steady growth in loans, non-interest/net fee income and NIM, while its provisions are likely to normalize from 1Q13’s one-off counter-cyclical uptick. Management has guided for two exceptional transactions with a negative net effect of ~1.2% on our FY13 earnings forecast. However, as the impact is immaterial and deemed non-core, we keep our forecasts as well as THB254.6 FV (ROE: 21.9%, COE: 11.0%, growth rate: 5.0%). Still a BUY.
Keeping growth targets. KBANK’s Management is retaining its full-year
2013 growth and key profitability targets despite the Thai Government’s lower economic growth outlook for the year. Management is still confident of achieving the following key operating 2013 targets: i) loans growth of 9%-11%, ii) non-interest income growth of up to 15%, iii) gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of below 2.4%, iv) net interest margins (NIMs) of 3.4%-3.6%, and v) a cost-to-income ratio of 45%. Despite fears of domestic economic slowdown and risks to global economic growth, Management emphasized that KBANK’s asset quality trend remains intact given its well diversified loans portfolio. In fact, the group has among the most well-diversified loans portfolios in the industry of 35% SME, 31% corporate, 26% retail and 8% others.
Provision to normalize downwards. The relatively sharp 22% pullback
in KBANK’s share price from its peak was partially driven by concerns over asset quality in its SME portfolio. However, apart from asset quality deterioration on a single corporate account, its overall NPL remained benign, with its gross NPL ratio likely to remain stable at 2.3%, and below the Group’s targeted 2.4% level. KBANK currently has a relatively healthy loans loss coverage ratio of 138% following its 1Q13 prudential provisioning. Despite the expected uptick in NPLs in 2Q13, the massive prudential provisions in 1Q13 of THB3.5bn (implying credit cost 104bps), provides room for a downward normalization in provisions to approximately THB2.0bn (implying credit cost 60bps) in 2Q13. As such, we believe that the market is unlikely to react negatively to the marginal uptick in 2Q13 absolute NPLs as it does not represent a systemic risk, since the Group’s provisions buffers are more than sufficient to mitigate the uptick.
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Marginally slower 5M annualized loans growth. The Group’s annualized 5M2013
loans growth of 8.8% is marginally below its full-year target of 9%-11%, with annualized growth of both SME (+4.1% vs FY13F’s 10%-12%) and retail (+6.0% (vs FY13F’s 10%-13%) being the two key drags. However, given that 1Q is typically slower due to lumpy repayments, and the current 8.8% annualized growth is approaching our full-year loans growth target of 10.5%, we believe that the seasonal uptick in 2H loans growth should be sufficient to bring full-year loans growth closer to our estimates. Focus on sustainable fee income growth – Growth set to surpass targets.
Despite slower 5M YTD annualized loans growth, the Group is on track to surpass its 15% non-interest income growth target for 2013. Given the prevailing industry-wide NIM pressure and the capital-intensive nature of driving excessive loans growth, the Group will strive to channel growth into less capital-intensive and higher ROE fee income and bancassurance, for which growth is expected to outpace that of net interest income in FY13. In 1Q13, The Group’s non-interest income expanded at a faster 13.3% q-o-q and 16.7% y-o-y vs its net interest income, which rose by a slower 1.2% q-o-q. KBANK has traditionally seen seasonal weakness in 1Q sequential non-interest income growth due to the seasonally high base in 4Q. As such, the robust growth in 1Q13 was certainly a pleasant surprise. Our recent update with Management suggests that the promising 1Q13 growth trend is sustainable despite the relatively high base effect in FY12, with the upcoming 2Q13 results likely to reflect a robust growth trend. Note that Management has a relatively conservative non-interest income growth target of 15% for FY13, despite 1HFY13 likely to come in at a stronger 17%-18% growth and 2H being typically a stronger non-interest income growth season.
Figure 1: KBANK’s net fee income growth trend Figure 2: Rising non-interest income ratios
18.23
20.64
24.47
(+14.0%)
(+13.2%)
(+18.6%)
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
200.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012
THB bn
Net fee income
62.2%62.4% 61.0%
37.8%
37.6%
39.0%
75.14
90.50
104.29
(+23.9%)
(+20.4%)
(+15.2%)
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
200.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012
THB bn
Net interest income Non interest income
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Figure 3: KBANK’s non-interest income growth trend by segment
Figure 4: 78% of KBANK’s non-interest income in stable fee income and bancassurance segments
0.7 0.8 1.4
3.95.4
7.30.60.8
0.6
18.2
20.6
24.5
0.7
1.2
1.4
4.5
5.2
5.6
28.39
34.00
40.70
(+31.2%)
(+19.8%)
(+19.7%)
2.3%
3.5%
3.4%
64.2%
60.7%
60.1%
13.6%15.9%
18.0%
2.3% 2.3% 3.5%
2.1%2.4%
1.5%
15.7%
15.3%
13.6%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
200.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012
THB bn
Dividend income
Insurance income
Gain on investment
Net Fee and service income
Other operating income
Gain on trading and FX transactionSeries8
Series10
Series11
Series12
Series13
Series14
Other operating income, 3%
Net Fee and service income,
60%
Insurance income, 18%
Dividend income, 3%
Trading income, 15%
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Cross-selling efforts not optimized yet. Despite the Group’s impressive increase in
average product hold ratio from 1.69 in 2007 to 2.82 in 2012, we note that there remains significant upside to raise product hold levels within its consumer segment. Although this segment represents approximately 60% of total deposit base by value, it has the lowest hold ratio among its three core customer segments – consumer, SME and corporates. There is currently a large disparity between product hold rates within its affluent consumer segment and the middle to mass market segments. The affluent segment could exhibit product hold rates of as much as 4.0, while those of the mass and middle market segments range between 1.0 and 2.0. Given the country’s rising affluence, relatively low insurance penetration rates in Thailand, and the Group’s aggressive plan to expand new distribution and convenience channels this year, we see ample scope to raise product hold rates further in the consumer segment. This will indirectly boost its fee income, wealth management and insurance income growth.
Impressive growth lifts ROEs despite NIM pressure. KBANK delivered an
impressive three-year fee income and insurance income CAGR of 15.6% and 34.2% respectively from 2009 to 2012. This bolstered the Group’s ROEs from 13% in 2009 to 21% in 2012 despite NIMs compressing by 20bps over the same period. Note that 78% of the Group’s fee income base is non-loan related – comprising fee income from ATM transactions, money transfers, credit card merchant fees, bancassurance and asset management.
Figure 5: KBANK’s product hold by customer segment Figure 6: KBANK’s non-interest income breakdown by customer segment
1.712.17
2.482.82 2.86 2.69 2.80
1.44 1.83 2.1 2.12 2.142.56
3.04
2.673.12 3.11 3.3
3.54
4.41 4.591.69
2.15
2.46
2.78 2.812.69
2.82
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 (new)
2012 (new)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Retail SME Corporate Average Product Holding
Mass, 11%
Multi-Corporate Biz, 15%
Large Corporate Biz, 10%
Medium Biz, 15%Small & Micro Biz,
15%
High Net Worth Individual, 2%
Aff luent, 6%
Middle Income, 26%
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Two extraordinary items to be booked in 2Q13F. KBANK will recognize two
extraordinary items in 2Q13: i) the revision in its K-Transformation plan and a subsequent change in the IT vendor relating to its deposit platform will result in KBANK making provisions expense of around THB1.6bn, and ii) the reversal of an excess loan loss provision expense amounting to about THB1.1bn that it provided for 10 years ago for bad debt transferred to Thai Asset Management Corporation (TMAC). The negative net effect of the two exceptional transactions amounts to approximately THB500m, or 1.2% of our FY13 earnings forecast. As the impact is immaterial and deemed as non-core, we make no changes to our forecasts. Expected core 2Q13F net profit of THB11.0bn (+17% y-o-y and +9% q-o-q).
Excluding the abovementioned exceptional items, KBANK is expected to report a core earnings growth of 23% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q. Even if we were to factor in the impact of the two exceptional items on its 2Q13 earnings, the Group is still expected to post a commendable 12% y-o-y growth in 2Q13 earnings and 15% y-o-y growth in 1HFY13 earnings. Key growth driver of the upcoming 2Q13 results include lower loans loss provisions, solid fee income growth in excess of 15%, and a stable NIM of 3.5%. Maintain BUY; valuations still attractive. The recent selloff in KBANK’s share price
presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate on weakness as valuations are no longer demanding with PB/V of 2.1x and P/E of 10.3x vs ROEs in excess of 20%. KBANK’s focus on sustainable high ROE fee income and NIMs preservation, rather than aggressive loans growth that may pressure margins, should provide upside surprise to its FY13 ROEs and earnings.
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Interest income 62,272 83,693 96,174 109,615 121,400
Interest expense (15,528) (27,202) (32,593) (38,997) (43,899)
Net interest income 46,744 56,491 63,581 70,618 77,500
Non interest income 28,394 34,004 40,705 50,224 59,984
Total other income 28,394 34,004 40,705 50,224 59,984
Total operating income 75,138 90,495 104,286 120,842 137,484
Total costs x depn & amortn (34,907) (39,612) (43,435) (48,310) (56,408)
Operating EBITDA 40,231 50,884 60,851 72,532 81,076
Depreciation and amortisation (3,096) (3,407) (3,499) (3,709) (4,118)
Total costs (38,003) (43,019) (46,934) (52,019) (60,526)
Operating profit 37,135 47,477 57,352 68,823 76,958
Total provision charges (6,701) (7,346) (8,390) (9,919) (10,203)
Post-provision operating profit 30,434 40,131 48,962 58,904 66,755
Income from associates 6 13 20 24 28
Pre-tax profit 30,440 40,144 48,981 58,927 66,783
Taxation (9,094) (13,962) (11,136) (12,964) (14,692)
Profit after tax 21,346 26,183 37,845 45,963 52,091
Minority interests (1,299) (1,957) (2,585) (2,062) (2,337)
Profit after tax & minorities 20,047 24,226 35,260 43,901 49,754
Reported net profit 20,047 24,226 35,260 43,901 49,754
Recurring net profit 20,047 24,226 35,260 43,901 49,754
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Balance Sheet Employment Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Net cust loans/assets (%) 67.3 68.1 61.9 64.2 64.0
Net earning assets / assets (%) 89.9 89.9 92.3 92.6 93.8
Non-earning assets/assets (%) 10.1 10.1 7.7 7.4 6.2
Net cust loans/cust deposits (%) 94.7 94.4 92.4 93.7 94.4
Equity / assets (%) 8.7 9.0 8.9 9.7 10.1
Equity / gross cust loans (%) 12.5 12.8 13.9 14.6 15.2
Equity & provns / gross cust loans (%) 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.9 18.5
Asset risk weighting (%) 73.1 73.7 65.7 67.0 67.3
Liquid funds / cust deposits (%) 34.6 34.6 48.0 44.4 46.1
Provision charge / avg cust loans (%) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Provision charge / avg assets (%) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Total write-off / avg cust loans (%) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Total write offs / average assets (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Reported NPLs / net cust loans (%) 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3
Estimated NPLs / net cust loans (%) 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3
SP chg / avg cust loans (%) -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
GP charge / average cust loans (%) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
Total provn chg / avg cust loans (%) -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8
Reported NPLs / gross cust loans (%) 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
Estimated NPLs / gross cust loans (%) 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
Total provisions / gross cust loans (%) 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Total provisions / reported NPLs (%) 111.0 127.1 131.8 139.6 145.1
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total gross loans 1,076,982 1,210,924 1,326,732 1,480,426 1,645,702
Securities - total 251,080 264,143 382,163 423,073 510,577
Other interest earning assets 97,560 111,969 249,979 210,974 230,476
Total gross interest earning assets 1,425,622 1,587,036 1,958,874 2,114,472 2,386,755
Total provisions (35,416) (38,328) (41,422) (48,935) (54,097)
Net loans to customers 1,041,566 1,172,596 1,285,310 1,431,491 1,591,604
Total net interest earning assets 1,390,206 1,548,708 1,917,452 2,065,538 2,332,658
Cash & accrued interest 32,457 53,211 35,127 44,240 35,502
Total investments 14,519 13,575 11,170 9,422 6,722
Tangible fixed assets 39,009 38,666 40,565 42,663 42,337
Intangible assets 20,196 21,269 24,867 26,412 25,869
Other assets 50,278 47,517 48,262 42,254 43,286
Total non-interest earning assets 156,459 174,238 159,991 164,992 153,716
Total assets 1,546,665 1,722,945 2,077,443 2,230,529 2,486,374
Broad deposits 1,133,100 1,295,569 1,565,384 1,644,005 1,800,791
Other interest-bearing liabilities 88,932 70,303 87,394 79,564 88,226
Total interest-bearing liabilities 1,222,032 1,365,873 1,652,778 1,723,569 1,889,018
Deferred tax liability 1,777 1,063 1,546 1,546 1,546
Other non-interest bearing liabilities 177,368 189,044 222,297 271,939 324,744
Total non-interest bearing liabilities 179,145 190,107 223,842 273,485 326,290
Total liabilities 1,401,177 1,555,980 1,876,621 1,997,054 2,215,308
Share capital 23,933 23,933 23,933 23,933 23,933
Retained earnings reserve 111,010 130,866 161,013 191,744 226,710
Shareholders' equity 134,943 154,799 184,946 215,676 250,643
Minority interests 10,545 12,167 15,876 17,799 20,423
Total equity 145,488 166,965 200,822 233,475 271,066
Total liabilities & equity 1,546,665 1,722,945 2,077,443 2,230,529 2,486,374
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Cust deposit growth (%) 12.8 12.9 12.0 9.8 10.4
Broad deposit growth (%) 10.8 14.3 20.8 5.0 9.5
Growth in IBLs (%) 10.9 11.8 21.0 4.3 9.6
Return on interest earning assets (%) 4.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4
Cost of funds (%) 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Net interest spread (%) 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0
Net interest margin (%) 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
Interest return on average assets (%) 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3
Return on average equity (%) 15.7 16.7 20.8 21.9 21.3
Return on average assets (%) 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1
EPS growth (%) 36.1 20.8 45.5 24.5 13.3
Bv per share growth (%) 12.5 14.7 19.5 16.6 16.2
Operating profit growth (%) 22.9 27.8 20.8 20.0 11.8
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
SWOT Analysis
Industry leading SME player with highest NIM profile among large banks in Thailand
Structural expansion in ROEs is backed by stable customer driven non-interest income flows
Strong cross-selling abilities with one of the highest product cross-selling hold rates in the industry
Margin compression on its SME business as larger banking competitors start to expand market share within this segment
Regulators tighten measures on consumer loans
Ability to raise fee income from fast-expanding consumer banking franchise
Low insurance penetration rates in Thailand and its relatively strong bancassurance franchise provides ample growth opportunities to help drive fee income growth
Its SME customers may face higher NPL risk in periods of economic uncertainty given their weaker balance sheet capacity
Its SME customers are mainly in the small segment rather than middle market segment
-10%
-1%
7%
16%
24%
33%
41%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)
0%
3%
6%
9%
13%
16%
19%
22%
25%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
P/BV (x) vs ROAE
P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile KBANK is a full-fledged financial institution with principal activities that include commercial banking, insurance, investment banking, treasury and others.
Huge potential to tap into Thailand's
under-penetrated consumer banking
markets in the fast-expanding provincial
economies.
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) 2 July 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
Recommendation Chart
21
71
121
171
221
271
Jul-08 Oct-09 Jan-11 Apr-12
Price Close
NR
177
189
238
255
234
235
254
Recommendations & Target Price
Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Prof it Not Rated
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2013-05-10 Buy 254 219
2013-04-22 Buy 235 208
2013-04-09 Buy 234 197
2013-01-21 Buy 255 195
2013-01-11 Buy 255 195
2012-10-18 Buy 255 175
2012-10-16 Buy 238 176
2012-07-19 Buy 189 163
2012-04-19 Buy 189 158
2012-03-29 Buy 177 157
Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg
8
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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9
Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 30 June 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 30 June 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)
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