We’re now starting to get a -y- wave in better tim e balance with the -w-, which took 88 bars to comp lete. It would be some technical perfection to see this -y- conclude at 54-55 bars (61.8% of -w-) and at a price of 1129, the 61.8% of -w- = -y-. Am I asking fo r too much? Yes, but we can dr eam, can’t we? Andy’s Technical Commentary_________ ____- X - ( Z ) “c” 1440.5 a (a) (b) -w- (c) 1113 1084.5 (c) -x- -y- 1129 S&P 500 mini Futures (180 min.) (a) (b) Only Three Waves Down from the Top It’s very difficult to see an “impulse” in this blue box, which makes it verydifficult for me to call the move up from 1084.5 an “impulse,” as so manyothers are trying to do.
We’re now starting to get a -y- wave in better time balance with the -w-, which took 88 bars to complete. It wouldbe some technical perfection to see this -y- conclude at 54-55 bars (61.8% of -w-) and at a price of 1129, the61.8% of -w- = -y-. Am I asking for too much? Yes, but we can dream, can’t we?
It’s very difficult to seean “impulse” in this bluebox, which makes it very difficult for me to call themove up from 1084.5 an“impulse,” as so many others are trying to do.
It’s really difficult to determine what exactly the pattern is up from 1084.5. Maybe it is an impulse, but it wouldrequire me to really torture the middle part of this wave to turn it into an impulse. Even the (a) wave, whileimpressive looking, was difficult to peg as an “impulse” on the very small scales. I’m going with the “unorthodox”diametric pattern, just because the “bowtie” resemblance does jump out. It doesn’t really matter too much.What does seem clear is that the pattern I’m labeling an (f) wave looks like a triangle. The thrust up from the [e]conclusion should take conclude between 1129 and 1131. So, this b-wave does appear on the verge of concluding soon.
We were looking for some resistance into the 1125 to 1129 zone. What we’re seeing doesn’t classify as a“reversal,” but the market is respecting this area as buying pressure has slowed down. The -y- structure from1084.5 is very difficult to categorize at this point. It’s NOT an impulsive move--that’s all I know for sure. Whichmeans that it must be a correction of some kind. It resembles one of those “unorthodox” diametric (bowtie)patterns that we’ve discussed before. I’m looking for some sort of reversal lower within the next 24 hours.
The move lower from the highs was clearly “corrective” in nature and not an “impulse.” Can you legitimately see five waves downfrom the peak?
Many people are attempting to call the move up from 1440.5 an “impulse,” but it’s very difficult to make that case because of how the move began.The mess of corrective congestion that kicked it off does not fit as a 1-2
All of this previous support should now be considered resistance: 1125 1129
Over the last few weeks we had been thinking the DXY would “slowdown” under the weight of all the new bullish sentiment and extremeshort positions in currencies like the Euro, the Swissy and the Pound. Itretrospect, that was an “easy call.” This market is not really showing any
signs of peaking action yet, which should be worrisome for DXY bears. If “d” wave is to alternate in time with “b,” this wave still has a couple of weeks to go. 81.70 remains a prime target for the “d” wave.
We highlighted Smith and Wesson a couple of times this year as one of the few stocks we liked, at$4.00. There’s a good chance that SWHC has completed an intermediate (B) wave and is nowlaunching into a powerful (C). A triangle does appear to have concluded at $4.16, so this area isnow key support for bullish positions. The risk for bulls is that the market is merely filling the gap leftat $5.21. Breaking above $5.21 would be a strong statement for the bullish technical case as itwould also snap the “b”-”d” downtrend line.
I’ll periodically post on Smith and Wesson because, quite frankly, I love the look of this entirepattern. It’s entirely possible that this (B)-wave takes longer to complete, but the whole pattern fromthe $7.52 highs looks VERY corrective in nature--meaning, we should get another big leg up atsome point. So, either SWHC will prove the point that Wave Analysis does not work well on stocks,and this equity will break my heart, or SWHC will launch very powerfully higher in the not distantfuture.
$3.29
( A )“c”
$7.52
“a”
a
b
c
d
e
“b”
“a”
“e”( B )
“d”
“c”
“b”
Interesting how its finding support at an EXACT 61.8%
This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of anykind. This report is technical commentary only. The author isNOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/TradingAdvisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may nottrade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The informationcontained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as tothe accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and
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Wave Symbology
"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle
<I>or <A> = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1“ or "a" = Minor 1 or a = Minute
-1- or -a- = Minuette
(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro
