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Mortality and Causes of Death in the City of Zurich Cornelia Schwierz, Judith Riegelnig and Klemens Rosin Statistik Stadt Zürich Acknowledgements: Valentina Lapteva and Olivier Bachem ETH Zurich http://www.r-project.org/
Statistik Stadt Zürich 16-18.10.2013 Schweizer Statistiktage, Basel
Outline
1. Facts on Mortality in Zurich 2. Modelling Mortality 3. Causes of Death 4. Other Effects on Mortality
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Motivation: Population Scenarios
Basis for • City administration • City planning • Schools, child care • Public transport • Health care • Homes for the elderly • … Requirement: scenarios at district level, age-specific
Stadt Zürich Statistik Stadt Zürich
Projections 2013-2025
Population (t) = Population (t-1) + births - deaths + immigration - emigration
Model Part: Demography
Stadt Zürich Statistik Stadt Zürich
Calculate deaths in model as deaths = mortality rate * population Motivation: Desire to model mortality rates accurately, e.g. for cohorts 65+ or 80+
Motivation: Population Scenarios
+/- naturalisation +/- relocation within city
Mortality Rates, Zurich 1900-2011
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---- deaths per 1000 inhabitants
---- Percentage (%) of inhabitants over 60 years
Mortality: Age and Sex
Mortality rate Deaths per year
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Male Female
Male Female
Age Age
Mortality: Age and Sex
Log(mortality rate) Deaths per year
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Male Female
Male Female
Age Age
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2. MODELS FOR PREDICTION a. Simple Approach b. Systematic Comparison
Age-specific Mortality Rates over Time
Simplest model: continue the trend into the future. Specific assumptions (e.g., infants) are possible.
Mortality rate (log10)
Systematic Model Comparison Valentina Lapteva and Olivier Bachem
Goal Compare different methods for predicting mortality rates
and evaluate the quality of the predictions.
Stadt Zürich Statistik Stadt Zürich
Model criteria • Robustness of parameter estimates and forecasts • Plausibility of forecasts • Implementation and parsimony (as simple as possible)
Analysis
1. Consider three parametric models
2. Estimate the model parameters with the data for the years 1994 to 2008
3. Forecast the mortality rates for the years 2009 to 2011 4. Compare the different mortality models using
performance measures
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The Models
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where
(i.e. APC model)
The parametric models for the mortality rate m(t,x) are of the form:
Performance Measures
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Three performance measures investigated: • Discrepancy of predicted and observed values
• Log-Likelihood of the fitted model
• Number of parameters
Main Causes of Death in the City of Zurich
Stadt Zürich Statistik Stadt Zürich
Female
Male
Age
Age
All others External causes (accidents, murder); without drugs and suicide Suicide
Respiratory system Dementia Cancer
Circulatory diseases and diseases of the heart
Temporal Trends
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Dea
ths
per 1
000
inha
bita
nts
45-to-64 years 65-to-84 years 85 years and above
Female Male
Circulatory diseases
Cancer
Cancer Types
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Females Males
Digestive system Lungs, larynx, trachea Genitals (prostate, breast)
Urinary system
Lymph system
Other types
Suicides
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Females Males
Poison
Falls
Poison
Firearms
Strangulation
(31 cases)
(78 cases)
(67 cases) Strangulation
(164 cases)
(236 cases)
(240 cases)
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4. OTHER EFFECTS ON MORTALITY not implemented in mortality model
Marital Status and Mortality
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Mor
talit
y ra
te (p
er 1
000)
Females Males Divorced Unmarried Married Widowed
Age
Mortality and Taxed Income / Property
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Mor
talit
y ra
te (p
er 1
000)
Females (married) Males (married)
Age
Property in 1000 CHF
Mortality Rate: Sex and Nationality
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female
male
Swiss German, Austrian European (other)
Other
Age
Log(
mor
talit
y ra
te)
Meteorology, People aged 80+
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Monthly mean Temp (°C) deat
hs p
er 1
000
inha
bita
nts
Multiple linear regression Winter min Temp + windchill Summer Temp span + humidity
R2 ~ 30%
Summary
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Modelling: − Lee-Carter and APC models seem feasible. − Performance comparable to simple linear trend. Mortality: Life expectancy increases. − Current median age at death 86 years (f) and 81
years (m). − Decreasing trends in mortality for circulatory diseases
and cancer. Causes of Death: − Interpretation of causes difficult (data quality,
multimortality,...). − What will affect future mortality?
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References
Stadt Zürich Statistik Stadt Zürich
1) «Sterben in Zürich» 2) «Bevölkerungsszenarien Stadt Zürich» 3) Statistical Models
http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/statistik