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Mortality differentials in Russian biggest cities and their surrounding territories Aleksei Shchur National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia) Berlin, 14 May 2019
Mortality differentials in Russian biggest cities
and their surrounding territories
Aleksei Shchur
National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia)Berlin, 14 May 2019
Spatial patterns of mortality and longevity in Russia: what is known so far
Alongside low life expectancy, Russia is characterized by a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in mortality
”South-west to north-east” mortality gradient across Russian regions first identified by Andreev (1979) and Shkolnikov
(1987) remains.
This gradient is usually explained via geographical differences in socio economic development, natural conditions and
alcohol consumption
Recent (since mid-2000-s) improvements in Russia did not lead to significant reductions of interregional mortality
differentials
As mortality levels across Russian regions converged at middle age, disparities at older age widened, the latter was
fueled by fast mortality reductions at old ages in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg [Timonin et al. 2016]
Moscow and Saint-Petersburg two biggest Russian cities concentrating almost 15% of total Russian population has
enjoyed since the 2000-s considerably lower mortality than national average
Like in most other Eastern European countries, urban areas in Russia experience lower mortality than the countryside
Yet, except for Moscow and saint-Petersburg we do not know much about mortality in other Russian biggest cities with at
least a million residents, and whether they are in avanguard of mortality reductions in their regions
Introduction to Russian biggest cities
• There are 15 cities in Russia with a population of over a million people (within administrative borders)
• They are quite evenly distributed across the inhabited part of the country
• They concentrate 23% of total Russian population, and this share is growing fast
• All these cities are “capital cities”, or administrative centers, of their respective regions
0,77
0,37
0,16
0,47
0,23
Distribution of Russian population (in 2016) among ...
the rest of Russia
Moscow
Saint-Petersburg
Other cities with over a million residents
Life expectancy at birth (in 2015-2017) in Russian biggest cities and their surrounding territories, by region
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
males
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
females
Periphery
Core
Suburbs*
RUS national average**
1. Rostov region 2. Volgograd region 3. Voronezh region
4. Moscow region 5. Samara region 6. Saint-Petersburg
7. Tatarstan 8. Nijnij Novgorod region 9. Bashkiria
10. Chelyabinsk region 11. Sverdlovsk region 12. Perm krai
13. Omsk region 14. Novosibirsk region 15. Krasnoyarsk region
* only for Moscow and Saint-Petersburg regions ** excl. Moscow, Saint-Petersburg and North Caucaus
Clusters of regions by magnitude of a gap in life expectancy between the “centers”
and the “periphery”, from a minimum value to the maximum
Decomposition of difference in life expectancy at birth by age between the “center” and the “periphery”, by cluster-regions
Males Females
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster I - Δe0 = 1,21 (all ages)
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster II - Δe0 = 2,4 (all ages)
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster III - Δe0 = 3,38 (all ages)
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster VI - Δe0 = 4,2 (all ages)
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
Saint-Petersburg - Δe0 = 2,71 (all ages)
-0,4
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
Moscow - Δe0 = 5,2 (all ages)
-0,40
0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster I - Δe0 = 1,13 (all ages)
-0,40
0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster III - Δe0 = 2,94 (all ages)
-0,40
0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
cluster II - Δe0 = 1,9 (all ages)
-0,40
0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
Saint-Petersburg - Δe0 = 1,16 (all ages)
-0,40
0,00
0,40
0,80
1,20
1,60
2,00
0-1
4
15
-29
30
-44
45
-59
60
-74
75
+
Moscow - Δe0 = 2,71 (all ages)
Decomposition of difference in life expectancy at birth by causes of death between the core and the periphery, population-weighted average across 13 regions (excl. Moscow and Saint-Petersburg
areas)
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,350
1-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
-79
80
-84
85
+
year
s o
f LE
at
bir
th
Males Δe0 = 2,85 (all causes)
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0
1-4
5-9
10
-14
15
-19
20
-24
25
-29
30
-34
35
-39
40
-44
45
-49
50
-54
55
-59
60
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
-79
80
-84
85
+
year
s o
f LE
at
bir
th
females Δe0 = 2,08 (all causes)
-0,500,000,50
0
Age 80+ Residuals Non-amenable cancer Non-amenable CVD-sAmenables Alcohol & injures HIV & hepatitis
Life expectancy at birth (in 2015-2017) by a city size
60
65
70
75
80100000-
250000
250000-
500000
500000-
1000000
1000000+
Moscow
males
60
65
70
75
80
100000-
250000
250000-
500000
500000-
1000000
1000000+
Moscow
females
maximum
median
minimum
Rus_average
Gaps in life expectancy at birth
between administrative
centers and their respective regions (excl. cities with a population of over 100 000 residents)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
Factors
• Education structure
• Selective migration
• Population change
• Housing amenities (sewage, water supply and hot water supply)
• Population size (for cities)
• Urbanity (for peripheries)
• Density (for peripheries)
