Mosaic – Protecting the Multi-racialism of SingaporeSarita, Ivana, Andrew, Shubra

Outline

Introduction

Key Findings

Challenges faced and mitigation

Methods Used – 4 Quadrant, Scenarios

Systems Map

Wild Cards

Scenario Snapshot – Worst Case, Best Case,…

Conclusion and Way Forward

Introduction

What is Multiculturalism?

The degree of multiculturalism:

assimilation, segregation, integration

Integration

Hard & Mild

Current approach of Singapore: Hard multiculturalism (take further the ethnic differences to be preserved. This policy “supports the protection of minority rights through institutional recognition of cultural difference in the public sphere including political representations.” )

Singaporean Hard Multiculturalism

Language education

Different channel for strengthening social integrity: MENDAKI, SINDA and CDAC

CMIO : 78 % Chinese, 12% Malay, 7 % Indian, and Others

Current Trends

the Inclusiveness Index fo Singaporeans increased by 19.6 percent from 47.5 percent in 2007 to 67.1 percent in 2011

total population of Singapore is at 5.18 million. This number was composed of 3,79 residents which consisted of 3.26 million citizens and 0.53 million permanent residents (PR) and 1.39 foreigners

In the 2011, the Chinese remains at the 74 percent of the number of total residents. The Malay and the Indian are 13 percent and 9.2 respectively.

Recent IPS Survey: 2000 respondents saying that the most defining character of Singaporean-ness is respect for the practices of different races and religions; new immigrants should be well-employed and “get along with their neighbours” , keep maintaining their foreign cultures

Alerts! (key findings)

the lost of votes of the ruling party in 2011 general election was partly attributed to the issue of immigration; 52 percent of Singaporeans felt that immigration was an important issue in the election.

26 percent Singaporeans who felt that the existence of the foreigners in Singapore affected their economy

“the proportion of those who felt they were worse off by the foreigners was the highest in the 21-29 years old segment .

the proportion of those who felt they were worse off by the foreigners was the largest in the lowest income segment ($0 - $1999 and $2000 - $4999)

While the aggregate statistics remain (relatively) solid ...

Issues of social gap and youth

The Curry Case

The Slashing incident

Challenges Faced and Mitigation

Challenges

Reluctance to Accept Changes

Effectively Communicating to wide variety of Stakeholders

Gaps between Planners and Implementers

Lack of follow up and tracking of Strategic Initiatives

Complexity induced inertia for continuously adapting the scenarios

Heuristic judgement, Confirmation biases and Cognitive dissonance

Mitigation – Tools like Morphological Analysis, System Map, and Futures Map

Morphological Analysis

System Map

Methods Used – 4 Quadrant

Methods Used –Scenarios Explore many different alternatives that may emerge in the

future.

Better-prepared for facing the most uncertain and shocking surprises of the future.

Easy to understand story-like narrative with which actors can easily relate to.

The four main steps that went into our scenario building process were : Establishing the foundational assumptions upon which the

scenario is constructed Capture the vast number of possible drivers that could affect

Multiculturalism. Identify and analyse key drivers including wild cards –

Assisted by Systems Maps Test and Build complete scenarios based on these key drivers

and wild cards – assisted by Morphological Analysis

System Maps

Wild Cards

“Low Probability, High Impact Events that happen quickly” - John L. Petersen

Three key characteristics: Direct Impact on Human Condition

Has broad, large, important and sometimes fundamental implications

Moves too fast for the whole system to adjust to the shock.

Problem of Identification as there is hardly any evidence

Importance for Singapore weak signals are highly critical in maintaining the peace and stability especially because of its small size, high immigrant population, and diverse and delicate ethnic composition.

Example - Emergence of Gangs and Mafia, Cyber Crime and Cyber Terrorism, Critical Infrastructure Damage

Preferred Scenario for Singapore multiculturalism (next 30 years)

the elimination of politically-correct ethnic division among Singaporeans (CMIO) by the government and achieving a seamless integration between the different ethnic groups within the Singaporean as well as the immigrant population. However, each of this ethnic group is entitled to practice their cultural and religious activities and beliefs.

the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 + further integration of global economy -> increasing domestic demand of work forces -> foreign talent + foreign workers + immigration policy -> high influx of immigrants -> strengthen Singapore economy -> loss job opportunity for Singaporean -> destabilization of social , political and economic stability -> unconducive environment as the level of integration of this foreigners are very low -> increasing social & political engagement -> demand for limiting the number of foreign talents -> at the economic realm, certain ethnic group might have the perception that the government privilege the other ethnic group limitation in the number of immigrants -> the immigrants has to go through induction and selection process -> the maintenance of multiracial stability (the limited incoming foreign talents are given rights at par with Singaporeans) -> language barriers are reduced by the used of one single operating language for everyone. government invites their citizens to participate in the DMP -> the use of social media platform (exclusive to Singapore) -> increase socio-political participation of its citizens + immigrants -> consequently, the government can take proactive measures to address social problems -> this participative DMP leads to chaos (clash of interests) -> synergy of govt policies this experience -> Singapore govt has realized that the existence of ethnic division among Singaporeans is very detrimental.

Scenario Snapshot – Worst Case Frequent Global Economic Crisis -> Shift to Regional Trade Agreements ->

Greater Regional Stability -> Downgrading Port Security due to reduced regional security concerns -> Decrease in revenue from foreign trade -> Rising Unemployment at Ports-> Increase in organized crime (gangs/mafia) -> Use of services of such gangs by terrorist organizations -> Strict legal action against Gangs -> Misinformation spread by terrorists using social media that the Govt. is targeting a specific ethnic community -> Certain communities stage protests -> Government tries to pacify the enraged communities -> However terrorist selectively detonate bombs at critical communal establishments and successfully incite communal violence -> Govt. is accused of deliberately giving less protection to minorities-> Ethnic and Communal Violence Erupts mostly among migrant community -> The government declares a state of emergency and deports immigrants -> Home countries of immigrants protest against deportation however economic interdependence saves the day -> an uneasy calmness prevails -> Govt. gradually cuts down on immigration, but unfortunately cannot stop emigration as unemployed Singaporeans relocate to emerging markets with strong and stable domestic economies -> Govt. tries to retain talent by announcing tax cuts and housing benefits -> But extensive reputational damage results in slow and gradual recovery

Scenario Snapshot – Wild Cards

Examples :

Socio-Political Disengagement -> Emergence of Gangs and Mafia -> Corruption -> Social Media Activism -> Socio-Political Engagement -> Transparency -> Social Instability -> Racial Instability -> Government Reforms -> Participatory decision making -> Greater Nationalism -> Stable Multiracialism

Cyber Terrorism -> Critical Infrastructure Damage -> Consumer Activism -> Socio – Political Engagement -> Participative Decision Making -> Greater Political Chaos -> Reputational Damage -> Economic Instability -> Emergence of Gangs and Mafia -> Gang Wars -> Social Instability -> Govt. Clampdown -> Temporary and Uneasy Calm Prevails

Conclusion & Way Forward

•Ethnic Segregation might put a frame in the minds of Singaporeans and Immigrants that they are different from each other. This fact can be easily exploited by external disruptive agents or internal anti-social agents.

•The Singapore government should not take steps that causes communal segregation and distinguishes one from the other. Instead they should try to re-engage the society in the decision making process using a participative approach to governance and make policies which encourage seamless integrative multiculturalism.

•Way Forward: Analyze impacts of Domestic Policies on Ethnic and Communal

Stability.

Encourage Socio-Political Participation

Follow up, Track and Dynamically Modify Scenarios and Strategic Initiatives to factor the changes in the relevance of drivers.

THANK YOU!