Moving IEEE into the Next Decade

Michael Lightner

2006 IEEE President and CEO

Region 10 26 March 2006

2

THANK YOU !

3

IEEE Vision

Advance global prosperity by… Fostering technological innovation Enabling members careers Promoting community

…worldwide

4

IEEE Core Focus

I like to capture our activities from an individual perspective as:

Enable technical professionals to distinguish themselves in a globally competitive environment

The ‘flip-side’ of this is our role as members of countries and regions’

IEEE members enabling their regions/countries to distinguish themselves in a globally competitive environment?

5

Population Explodes

World population continues to grow: from 2.6 billion in 1950, to 6.2 in 2002 and 9.1 billion in 2050

Less developed countries (LDCs) will drive population growth for the next five decades.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025 2050

Millions

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base

6

Other Population Challenges

Two Demographic Extremes:

Nearly 50% of the world’s population could be less than 18 years old by 2020.

In 2004, 20 percent of the people residing in Italy were over age 65; by 2020, China, Australia, Russia, Canada, and the United States will face a similar situation

Population for Selected Countries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

China Japan India France Germany Italy Spain UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Billions

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2025 2050

42 42 41 39 39 3632 24 39Median age(2002-03)

In 2002, China is the most populous country in the world and India, the second most populous. India gains population rapidly and eclipses China in total population in 2037.

Half of the world’s more developed countries (MDCs), including those in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, are expected to experience population declines over the next 50 years. The United States is the only MDC expected to be among the ten most populous countries in 2050.

MDCs will experience aging populations, while LDCs will have a “youth bulge.” Nearly 50% of the world’s population could be less than 18 years old by 2020.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base

8

Generational Differences

The Younger Generation… Perceptions of trustworthy may differ from elders' Has replaced newspapers and TV weather reports with the Internet The Internet has shaped the way they work, relax and even date. It's created a

different notion of community and new avenues for expression. More likely to go on-line to pay bills, register for classes, book travel, check TV

listings, buy movie tickets and get directions.

"My parents, before they go on road trips, get a booklet with travel directions that are printed and mailed to them. Can you imagine? Mailing away for travel directions?"

Accustomed to near-instantaneous keeping in touch — primarily via instant messaging, cell phones and e-mail.

However, far from digging a social black hole, they are using high-tech means to maintain or expand their network of relationships, to hang out with friends, to relieve boredom and even flirt.

9

Challenges (& Opportunities) In A Networked World

Increased intensity and rate of change in workplace Steady pressure on the individual Struggles balancing work and personal lives

Integration of cell phones, video, and Internet Prices fall, and globalization accelerates. Technology professionals want tools to help quickly form and

disband, coordinate actions, and share information. Self-organizing mechanisms are emerging and building a

collective, on-line body of information and intelligence.

Information sharing is tying cultures, knowledge and economies

10

Workforce Trends

Nine shifts are projected in work patterns over the next two decades:

People Work at Home Intranets Replace Offices Networks Replace the Pyramid Simultaneous work and travel Communities Become Dense New Societal Infrastructures Evolve Shared Work and Responsibility Half of all Learning is Online Education Becomes Web-based

11

The global talent pool of scientists and engineers is increasing rapidly. Business, industry and academia will continue to access this talent pool over the next decade.

Worldwide Workforce Shifts Will Continue

12

Workplace Trends

Jobs will require flexibility, creativity, lifelong learning, and interaction with others

Global marketplace demands around the clock access

The half-life of an engineer’s knowledge is estimated to be less than five years

In 10 years 90% of what an engineer knows will be available on the computer

60% of future jobs will require training that only 20% of the current U.S. work force possesses

[Workforce 2020 : Work and Workers in the 21st Century]

13

Workplace Trends: Specialization & Globalization

Specialization the size of the body of knowledge required to excel in a particular area

precludes excellence across all disciplines.

Organizations will depend on teams of task-focused, project-specific specialists.

Use of independent specialists, consultants and contractors will increase.

Globalization Globalization is shifting the source of competitive pressure and competitive

advantage

from excellence at the point of production — now more or less assumed

toward excellence in governing spatially dispersed networks of plants, affiliates and suppliers.

Top jobs will go to people who manage the large, complex adaptive systems for business.

14

A closer look at Region 10

15

2005 World Competitiveness

59.163.264.2

65.866.0

68.775.5

78.382.082.6

85.389.7

93.1100.0

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

#39 - India

#31 - China

#29 - Korea

#28 - Malaysia

#27 - Thailand

#21 - Japan

#18 - New Zealand

#11 - Taiwan

#9 - Australia

#5 - Canada

#4 - Iceland

#3 - Singapore

#2 - Hong Kong

#1 - US

Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook

Metrics•Economic performance

•Government efficiency

•Business efficiency

•Infrastructure

16

Indicators Of Technological CompetitivenessThe Gap Is Narrowing

Japan 295 China 271 Singapore 267 Australia 265 South Korea 259 Taiwan 254 New Zealand 240 Malaysia 228 India 217 Philippines 189 Thailand 179 Indonesia 150

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators 2006

Metrics:

•National orientation

•Socioeconomic infrastructure

•Technological infrastructure

•Productive capacity

17

Innovator Index: 2004

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

AustriaFinland

NetherlandsSpain

SwedenCanada

BrazilAustralia

ItalyTaiwan

UKFranceRussia

ChinaGermanyS. Korea

USJapan

Patent Applications in Thousands

Source: Thomson Scientific

18

China Population: 1,306,313,812 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…21.4%15-64yrs…71%65yrs+ …7.6%

Growth rate: .58%

Languages: Standard Chinese of Mandarin, Yue (Cantonese), We (Shanghaiese), Other

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 90.9%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $8.158 trillion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 9.2% (2005)

Labor force: 791.4 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 4.2% (2004)

Telephones – main lines in use: 263 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 269 million (2003)Internet users – 111 million (2004)

19

China 4th largest economy in the world.

Oil demand could account for 32% of global power equipment orders between 2003 and 2008.

Integrated circuits, mobile phones and computers are the driving forces behind China’s export volume.

Foreign direct investment grew 36% annually from 2002 to 2005.

2,003 higher ed institutes, 3.2 mill higher ed students, and 110K foreign students studying in China in 2004

111 million Internet users, making it the world's 2nd largest Internet country. Source: Business Week, Mar 2004

20

China Issues & Priorities Pursuing SARS vaccine – completed clinical study Clean energy sources to improve pollution

Wind turbines Solar-power terrestrial heat pumps Photovoltaic cells Chunhui cars powered by lithium & hydrogen – water vapor is

only emission Computing independence with homegrown “Godson”

computer chip Labor supply paradox

Huge supply of low-cost workers Few graduates have necessary skills for service occupation

21

Japan Population: 127,417,244 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…14.3%15-64yrs…66.2%65yrs+ …19.5%

Growth rate: .05%

Languages: Japanese

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 99%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $3.867 trillion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 2.1% (2005)

Labor force: 66.4 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 4.3% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 71 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 86.7 million (2003)Internet users – 57.2 million (2003)

22

India Population: 1,080,264,388 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…31.2%15-64yrs…63.9%65yrs+ …4.9%

Growth rate: 1.4%

Languages: Hindi (30%), English (national, political, commercial),14 other official languages

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 59.5%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $3.678 trillion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 7.1% (2005)

Labor force: 496.4 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 9% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 49 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 26 million (2003)Internet users – 18.5 million (2003)

23

India

Largest concentration of IEEE members outside the US.

World’s 2nd largest talent pool for engineers

A rising proportion of its population of ‘working age’ (15-59 years).

Known for software development and growth in knowledge-based industries.

Large pool of well-educated people skilled in the English language.

Output of trained engineering and IT professionals growing.

020406080

100120140160180200

1992199419961998200020022004

EngineersEngineers

IT professionalsIT professionals

Source: National Association of Software and Service Companies

Output of Degree Level Engineering and IT Professionals in India

(In thousands)

24

South Korea Population: 48,422,644 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…19.4%15-64yrs…72%65yrs+ …8.6%

Growth rate: .38%

Languages: Korean, English

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 67.7%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $983.3 billion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 3.7% (2005)

Labor force: 23.65 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 3.7% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 23 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 33.5 million (2003)Internet users – 29 million (2003)

25

Australia Population: 20,090, 437 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…19.8%15-64yrs…67.2%65yrs+ 12.9%

Growth rate: .87% Languages: English (79.1%), Chinese, Italian, Other

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 100%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $642.7 billion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 2.7% (2005)

Labor force: 10.42 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 5.2% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 11 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 14 million (2003)Internet users – 9.5 million (2002)

26

Australia Labor Challenges Labor Market Shift - Baby-boom generation

reaches retirement age

If labor force slows, GDP could follow

Growing labor demand = stronger incentives to learn new skills and enter new areas

Must ensure mature-age employees can acquire updated skills

Economic challenge to enable lifelong learning

27

Thailand Population: 65,444,371 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…23.9%15-64yrs…68.6%65yrs+ …7.5%

Growth rate: .87%

Languages: Thai, English, ethnic and regional dialects

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 94.9%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $545.8 billion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 4.6% (2005)

Labor force: 35.36 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 1.4% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 6.6 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 26.5 million (2003)Internet users – 6.9 million (2003)

28

Malaysia Population: 23,953,136 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…33%15-64yrs…62.4%65yrs+ …4.6%

Growth rate: 1.8%

Languages: Bahasa Melayu (official), English, Chinese, Other

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 88.7%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $248 billion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 5.1% (2005)

Labor force: 10.67 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 3.6% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 4.5 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 11 million (2003)Internet users – 8.7 million (2003)

29

New Zealand Population: 4,035,461 (July 2005 est.)

Age Structure: 0-14yrs…21.4%15-64yrs…66.9%65yrs+ …11.7%

Growth rate: 1.02%

Languages: English (official), Maori (official)

Literacy (Age 15 and over can read and write): 99%

GDP (purchasing power parity): $97.39 billion (2005)GDP – real growth rate: 2.5% (2005)

Labor force: 2.139 million (2005)Unemployment rate: 4% (2005)

Telephones – main lines in use: 1.8 million (2003)Telephones – mobile cellular: 2.6 million (2003)Internet users – 2 million (2003)

30

New Zealand

Moved up two places in 2005 World Competitiveness rating

Subsidy free economy / no price controls (environmental law prevents a higher ranking)

Good corporate citizenship and image abroad

Shortage of skilled labor/outflow of well-educated and skilled people

31

R914,269

R856,953

R10 62,533

R1- 6 218,260

R715,380

IEEE Membership

TOTAL MEMBERSHIP – 367,39531 December 2005

R1 – 39,191

R2 – 33,617

R3 – 30,576

R4 – 24,325

R5 – 29,681

R6 – 60,870 *Region 10 remains largest IEEE Region

32

IEEE Top 10 Membership Countries

2005 Rank Country

2005 Membership

% of All IEEE Mbrs

1 UNITED STATES 219,125 59.6%

2 INDIA 22,134 6.0%

3 CANADA 15517 4.2%

4 JAPAN 12,702 3.5%

5 UNITED KINGDOM 8,459 2.3%

6 CHINA (incl. HONG KONG & MACAU)

6,351 1.7%

7 AUSTRALIA 6,069 1.7%

8 GERMANY 5,941 1.6%

9 KOREA 4,072 1.1%

10 MEXICO 3,999 1.1%

5 of top 10 countries are in Region 10

33

Historical Region 10 Membership1997 - 2005

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

34

IEEE Region 10 Membership Sep 2003 - Sep 2005

42,309

54,844

39,674 39,804

16,32315,170 18,196

58,632 58,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2003 2004 2005

Higher Grade Students Total

35

IEEE Region 10 Membership Nov 2004 to Nov 2005

17436 19500

4370040383

61136 59883

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Students Higher Grade Total

Nov 2004

Nov 2005

36

IEEE Region 10 November 2005

40,383 Higher Grade members 19,500 Student members 47 Sections 288 Chapters 439 Student Branches 44 Student Branch Society Chapters

37

Challenges & Opportunities

38

Challenges of Transnationalism Understanding local laws and responding

consistently

Adhering to core values and mission

Sensitivity to national needs and interests affecting our members

Promoting community and communication nationally and globally

Creating a toolbox of products and services appropriate for each member area

39

Challenges Ahead

IEEE has been studying changes in global workplace Global growth of invention Technology business - China and India How engineers work

Changes in work patterns Anywhere, anytime, always on Multiple languages, multiple time zones

40

Challenges IEEE should anticipate the changes coming from many

countries that can reshape its markets and agendas. IEEE must globalize its thinking to anticipate new

membership needs IEEE products and services need new approaches in

partnership with national associations and consultants in the relevant countries

IEEE members will need new “adaptational” skills to help deal with the complexity

IEEE should anticipate more professionals having longer careers and working into their 70s, 80s, and 90s

It is essential for IEEE to listen to young professionals and potential members. Think about what IEEE has to offer them..

41

Helping To Promote The ProfessionIEEE Pre-university Initiatives link

engineers and educators

Pre-university Teacher In-Service Program for Sections

15 lesson plans aligned with education standards

Over 600 teachers have been trained impacting over 63,000 students

Goal is to reach another 2,000 educators by the end of 2006

IEEE Pre-University Educator / Engineer Resource Site (PEERS)

Website that fosters collaborations to help improve the pre-university teaching of science, math, and technology

42

IEEE Focus on the Future:9 Strategic Objectives

Evaluate alternative membership models that are affordable and attractive

Aggressively position IEEE as a leader in Standards in the global marketplace

Transform IEEE into a highly respected provider of continuing and professional education products, services and activities

Protect IEEE’s high value IP products from threats derived from alternative publishing business models such as open access

Make IEEE a highly visible force in global accreditation, certification, and competency demonstrations

43

IEEE Focus on the Future:9 Strategic Objectives

Evolve an IEEE-wide strategy for fast developing regions of the world with an initial focus on Mainland China

Communicate the vision and reality of the profession to both members and nonmembers using a consistent, cohesive identity that recognizes our diversity, supports our position as the preeminent global technical, educational and scientific association, and emphasizes the overall value of the IEEE

Leverage member expertise by utilizing IEEE Fellows as an elite group to develop engineering/scientific position papers that would be globally focused

Evolve IEEE’s volunteer and staff organization and its governance processes in order to effectively and efficiently achieve our strategic objectives

44

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs

IEEE is striving to build on its global nature to enhance members’ success in the global profession.

Place more emphasis on the skills engineers need to succeed in the 21st Century

Addressing global needs locally Meet local needs in education, accreditation,

professional development, information, and technology development and policy

45

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs

Providing more resources online IEL digital library – 1.3 million

documents IEEE Member Digital Library

Subscribers can download, save and print 25 articles/mo.

IEEE Enterprise for smaller businesses

Google and Yahoo searches of IEEE Xplore

CrossRef links to other journals Online tools make it easier and faster

to submit, review and publish papers with IEEE

46

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs Asia-Pacific Initiative -phase 1

Establishing a liaison office in the Peoples’ Republic of China

Legal presence to support Region/Section activities, conferences, use of IEEE Intellectual property, standards efforts

Build corporate standards memberships and an appreciation and participation of voluntary global standards

Support IEEE Computer Society Certification program

Professional Certification IEEE Computer Society software

development professional certification Exam offered at hundreds of sites in over 74

countries Measures an individual's mastery of the

fundamental knowledge required to perform the functions of an experienced software engineer across the globe

47

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs

Addressing global accreditation issues Most IEEE accreditation activities are in U.S. with ABET IEEE also serves in advisory capacity on accreditation in such

countries as Peru, Egypt Plans underway for IEEE to expand activity out of U.S. Establishing formal role in assisting accrediting bodies

worldwide Expect to work to develop model curricula Explore opportunity to serve as accrediting body

Establishing corporate partnerships to serve industry around the world

20-member Library Advisory Council 80 corporate members of IEEE Standards Association Memoranda of understanding with major corps in U.S. and

Europe

48

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global Needs

Continuing Education

Expert Now IEEE

50 one- and two-hour interactive online courses based on IEEE’s best conference tutorials

Subscriptions for corporations

Available individually to members later in 2006

IEEE Education Partners

6000 online courses from university and corporate institutions at a discount

49

Online CommunitiesEnable Global Collaborations

Over 100 in operation with 20,000+ users

Topics include Power & Energy, Embedded System, Product Safety, Ethernet P Optical Networks, Employment & Career Strategies, and more

IEEE governance--SPC;Section/Chapter volunteers

Global Section/Chapter Community enhances local progress.

50

How IEEE Is Addressing Its Global NeedsSeeding the pipeline of talent to enter

engineering and technology fields Expanding pre-university programs to

link engineers and educators and promote technical literacy

Teacher Inservice: Over 600 teachers have been trained impacting over 70,000 students

Goal is to reach 2000 more in U.S., Malaysia, Spain, Australia, South Africa in 2006

PEERS Website provides teacher resources

Fostering global collaborations between education and engineering deans (Deans Summit, 2007)

51

New Roles of IEEE for growth

Helping countries maintain their technological edge

Helping developing countries catch up Leveling the playing field

Accreditation Credentialing

52

IEEE Accreditation Initiatives

Model accreditation criteria in IEEE fields Peer institution review Accreditation services to accrediting bodies Curriculum direction Engineering education pedagogy IEEE global workshop on accreditation Comprehensive accreditation portal with reliable and

updated information

53

How Do We Function As A Transnational Organization

Member duality – belonging to global technical community and holding national citizenship.

Acting globally to promote community and communication

IEEE Sections and Regional Councils

Cooperative agreements with national societies and industry associations – working WITH, not against our societies

54

Your help is needed Gaining consensus Understanding priorities Making decisions on investments Moving forward with implementation

I ask for your help and look forward to working with you on this critical task for defining the IEEE of the next decade

55

IEEE Must Focus On…

Enabling technical professionals to distinguish themselves in a globally competitive environment…

And aggressively deliver value-added products and services to support this strategic focus.