MPR 2008:2 03.06.2008. 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The...

MPR 2008:2

03.06.2008

1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90%75%50%Repo rate

Source: The Riksbank

2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

90%75%50%CPI

Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank

3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

690%75%50%GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Oil price, outcome

Futures, average up to and including 16-01-2008(MPR 2008:1)Futures, average up to and including 11-04-2008(MPU April 2008)Futures, up to and including 27-06-2008 (MPR2008:2)

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

5. Nominal and real oil priceUSD per barrel (Brent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 050

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Oil priceReal oil price

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbanken

6. Commodity pricesUSD, annual percentage change

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

00 02 04 06 08-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100FoodOther agricultural productsMetalsTotaly

Source: The Economist.

7. CPI and GDP in OECDAnnual percentage change

Sources: OECD and the Riksbank

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5GDP, OECD

CPI, OECD

8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole

Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9Unit labour costsProductivityLabour costs per hour


9. Actual and trend productivity growth in

the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPR 2008:2

MPR 2008:1

HP-trend


10. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI

Annual percentage change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Mortgage costs (4.5%)Energi (8.9%)Food (16.8%)

Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.

11. CPI, outcome and forecasts on different occasions


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5MPR 2008:2MPU April 2008MPR 2008:1

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

12. Food prices at different stagesAnnual percentage change

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60The Economist commodity price index for food

Food in the ITPI

Food in the CPI

Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden.

13. CPI and CPIFAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPICPIF


14. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally adjusted data

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 103800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000Labour force (EU definition)Labour force (ILO definition)

Employed (EU definition)Employed (ILO definition)


15. Percentage of unemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Unemployment (ILO definition)

Unemployment (EU definition)


16. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated

as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7GDP according to NA 2007:3Forecast, MPR 2008:1GDP according to NA 2007:4Forecast April 2008GDP according to NA 2008:1Forecast, MPR 2008:2


17. Growth in the World and SwedenAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

SwedenThe World

Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

18. GDP for the United States and the euro area

Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

USA

Euro area

Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

19. ExportsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual

rate

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MPR 2008:1

MPR 2008:2


20. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92 = 100


120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136TCW-indexTCW-prognos PPR 2008:2TCW-prognos PPR 2008:1

21. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08 jul/080

1

2

3

4

5

6Variable mortgage rateExpected repo rateDifference between variable mortgage rate and expected repo rate

Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank

22. Households' disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio

Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Consumption (left scale)Disposal income (left scale)Saving ratio (right scale)


23. InvestmentsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual

rate

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

MPR 2008:1

MPR 2008:2


24. Public sector consumption expenditureAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage

of GDP

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1022

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30Annual percentage change (left scale)

Percentage of GDP (right scale)


25. General government net lendingProportion of GDP, per cent

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Financial balance

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

26. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions

Per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

MPR 2008:2

MPU April 2008

Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

Table 1. Inflation, annual average

Annual percentage change, () = Latest MPU


2007 2008 2009 2010

CPI 2.2 3.9 (3.5) 3.5 (2.8) 2.3 (2.3)

CPIX 1.2 3.0 (2.6) 2.8 (2.4) 2.0 (2.0)

CPIX excl. energy 1.5 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1)

CPI with fixed interest rate 1.5 3.1 (2.8) 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.2)

Table 2. Inflation. 12-month rate

Annual percentage change. () = Latest MPU


Sept. 07 Sept. 08 Sept. 09 Sept. -10 Sept. 11

CPI 2.2 4.6 (3.8) 3.0 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) 2.1

CPIX 1.0 3.8 (3.2) 2.4 (2.3) 2.0 (1.9) 1.9

CPIX excl. energy 1.4 2.4 (2.4) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1) 2.0

CPI with fixed interest rate 1.3 3.9 (3.3) 2.7 (2.5) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1

Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change. unless otherwise specified.

( ) = Latest MPU

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

*Per cent of labour force

2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP. world 4.9 (4.9) 4.0 (3.8) 3.9 (4.0) 4.4 (4.5) Crude oil price Brent. USD/barrel. annual

average 73 (73) 123 (103) 137 (102) 136 (100)

Exchange rate. TCW index. annual average 125.2 122.8 (123.3) 121.9 (122.4) 121.9 (122.5)

Repo rate. annual average 3.5 4.4 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3)

General government net lending. percentage of GDP

3.4 (3.4) 3.1 (2.9) 1.3 (1.4) 0.9 (0.9)

GDP 2.7 (2.6) 2.1 (2.6) 1.2 (1.8) 2.7 (2.8)

GDP. calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.4) 1.4 (1.9) 2.4 (2.5)

No. of employed. 15-74 2.5 1.4 (1.1) -0.4 (-0.1) -0.1 (0.0)

Unemployment. 15-74 (EU definition) 6.1 5.9 (6.0) 6.5 (6.2) 6.5 (6.3)

Hourly wage in economy as a whole 3.3 (3.4) 4.4 (4.5) 3.7 (3.8) 3.8 (3.8)

Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = Latest MPU


Q 2 2008

Q 3 2008

Q 4 2008

Q 3 2009

Q 3 2010

Q3 2011

Repo rate 4.25 4.5 (4.3) 4.8 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) 4.4

27. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6Main scenario

Lower interest rates

Higher interest rates


28. CPIAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0



Main scenario


29. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

Main scenarioLower interest ratesHigher interest rates

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankBlack lines show average GDP growth in the periods 1981-2007 and 1998-2007; 2, 3 and 3.2 per cent.

30. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

Main scenario



Source. The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Main scenario




32. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Lower interest rates


Main scenario


33. Labour market gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Main scenarioLower interest ratesHigher interest rates


34. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4



Main scenario


35. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1170

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

Main scenario




36. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

98 99 01 02 04 05 07 08 10 113

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11



Main scenario


37. Commodity price index excluding energy

Index, USD

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 1380

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Lower commodity pricesMain scenario

Sources: The Economist and the Riksbank.

38. GDP, scenario with lower commodity prices


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Lower commodity pricesMain scenario


39. Repo rate, scenario with lower commodity prices

Per cent, quaterly average

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

Lower commodity prices

Main scenario


40. CPI, scenario with lower commodity prices


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Lower commodity prices

Main scenario


41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growth and higher inflationPer cent, quaterly average

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

Lower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario


42. CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Lower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario


43. GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Lower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario


44. Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower growth and higher inflation

Percentage deviation from the HP trend

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Main scenario


45. Labour market gap, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation

Percentage deviation from the HP trend

-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0


Main scenario


46. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread)

Basis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/080

50

100

150

200

250Euro area

USA

UK

Sweden

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

47. Basis-spread and Ted-spreadPer cent

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 apr/08 jul/083.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0Treasury bills

Interbank rate

Expected monetary policy

TED-spread

Basis-spread

Source: Reuters Ecowin

48. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread)

Basis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


20

40

60

80

100

120

Sweden

Euro area

USA

UK

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

49. Monetary policy expectations in the United States

Per cent

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/111.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0Fed funds 27 June 2008

Fed funds

Fed funds 23 April 2008

Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

50. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area

Per cent

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/111.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Refi

Refi 27 June 2008

Refi 23 April 2008

Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank.Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

51. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market

participants.Per cent

Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the RiksbankNote. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/11

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Repo rate

Forward rate curve (STINA/FRA/Swaps) 16-06-2008 27 June2008Forward rate curve (STINA/FRA/Swaps) 16-06-2008 23 April2008Survey, Prospera average, 6 June 2008

Survey, Prospera average, 2 April 2008

52. Two-year interest ratesPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

jan/07 apr/07 jul/07 okt/07 jan/08 maj/080

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

SwedenEuro areaUSAUK

Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.

53. Long-term interest ratesPer cent

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 20082.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Sweden

Euro area

USA

Source: Reuters Ecowin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

54. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Repo rateInterbank rateMortgages - SBABMortgages - average

55. Exchange rate movementsSEK per euro and dollar

5

6

7

8

9

10

jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08 jul/085

6

7

8

9

10

SEK/EUR

SEK/USD


56. Stock market movementsIndex, 1 January 1999=100

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0850

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250Euro area (Euro Stoxx)

OMX 30, Sweden

S&P 500, USA


57. The money supplyAnnual percentage change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-5

0

5

10

15

20

25M0

M2

M3


58. Households’ new saving in deposit accounts or shares and unit trusts, quarter

SEK billion

Note. The households’ new saving is the net amount households invest in their deposit accounts or unit trusts, or in the net purchase of

shares, during a quarter. Four-quarter moving average.

Source: Statistics Sweden

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

mar-04 sept-04 mar-05 sept-05 mar-06 sept-06 mar-07 sept-07 mar-08

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40Deposit accounts

Aktier och aktiefonder

59. Purchase price coefficient in Sweden as a whole

C/I ratio

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

03 04 05 06 07 081.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Source: Statistics Sweden

60. House prices and total lending to Swedish householdsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly observations of lending to households.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

House prices

Lending to households

61. Employment and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Private consumption

Employment

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

62. Economic indicators for the euro areaIndex, December 2005 = 100, and annual percentage

change

86

90

94

98

102

106

110

114

118

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10European Commission Economic Sentiment (left scale)

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (right scale)

Sources: European Commission and OECD

63. Confidence indicators for households Net figures

-30

-20

-10

0

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-30

-20

-10

0

10

Euro areaUKGermany

Source: European Commission

64. ConsumerpricesAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

5USAUKEuro area

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, OECD and Statistics Sweden

65. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

1

2

3

4Excl. energy, food, alcohol, tobaccoExcl. energyTotal

Source: Eurostat

66. Confidence indicators in the business sector

Seasonally adjusted balance

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Manufacturing industryRetail tradePrivate service industriesConstruction

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

67. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Housing

Business sector excluding housing

Public authorities

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

68. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

ImportsExports

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Three-month moving averages

69. Retail sales and household consumption


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Households’ total consumptionHouseholds’ consumption of retail goodsRetail sales

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the National Institute of Economic Research

70. Household expectations of the futureNet figures

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Confidence indicator

Unemployment

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

71. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices

Thousands, seasonalöly adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 080

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24New vacancies (left scales)

Unfilled vacancies (left scale)

Redundancy notices (right scale)

Source: Swedish Public Employment ServiceNote. Three month moving average.

72. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labourft

Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Manufacturing industryRetail tradePrivate service industriesBusiness sectorConstruction sector

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

73. Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data

75

80

85

90

95

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 0875

80

85

90

95Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry

NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

74. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6GDPHours workedEmployment

Sources:Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent thr Riksbank's forecast

75. Different agents’ expectations of inflation

two years aheadAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

1

2

3

4Purchasing managersSocial partners

Money market agents

Source: Prospera Research AB

76. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations of inflation

one year aheadAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPIHouseholds, Statistics SwedenHouseholds, NIERCompanies, NIER

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

77. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation)

Percentage points

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Break-even inflation


78. The Economist’s commodity price index for food

USD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

50

100

150

200

250

300Food prices

Source: The Economist.

79. Prices of goods and services in the CPIAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Services (43.5%)Goods excluding energy and food (26.3%)

Source: Statistics SwedenNote. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.

80. Different measures of underlying inflation


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPIXTRIM85CPIX excluding energy

CPIX excluding energy and foodUND24


81. Inflation in Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percenatge change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Euro area, HIKPSweden, HIKPSweden, CPI

Sources:Eurostat and Statistics SwedenNote: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.

82. Food prices for consumers in Sweden and the euro area


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Sweden

Euro area

Sources: Eurostat and Statistics SwedenNote: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.

83. CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0USA, CPI

Euro area, HICP

Sweden, HICP

Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note. HICP for the euro area and Sweden and the CPI for the USA

B1. The repo rate and the interest rate index in the CPI

Per cent for the respective indices, January 1995 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Interest rate index (left scale)

Repo rate (right scale)


B2. Capital stock index in the CPI and the property price index for single-family

dwellings Annual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20Capital stock indexProperty price index for single-family dwellingsProperty price index for single-family dwellings - 40 quarters' moving average


B3. CPI, CPIX and CPIF, outcomes and forecasts


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 02 04 06 08 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPI

CPIF

CPIX


B4. The CPI excluding certain goodsAnnual percentage change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

95 96 97 98 99 00 01-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8CPI excluding meat, electricity, heating oil, interest rates, petrol, fruitand vegetables and telecom (78%)Meat, electricity, heating oil, interest rates, petrol, fruit and vegetablesand telecom (22%)CPI

Source: The Riksbank (Inflation Report 2001:2)

B5. The CPIX including and excluding energy


0

1

2

3

4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

1

2

3

4

CPIXCPIX excluding energy


Note Broken lines represents the forecasts from Inflation report 2003:1

B6. Nominal and real one-year interest rates 1996-2008

Per cent

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8One-year real interest rateRealised one-year real interestrateNominal one-year interest rate

Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.

B7. Real repo rate according to the Riksbank's forecasts

Per cent, quarterly data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Real repo rateForecast, real repo rate, MPR 2008:2Forecast, real repo rate, MPU April 2008Nominal repo rateForecast, nominal repo rate, MPU April 2008Forecast, nominal repo rate, MPR 2008:2

Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.

B8. The companies’ answers to questions about price developments

Net figures

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep Dec Maj-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

OutcomesExpectations


Table A1. Inflation, 12-month figures

Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR


Sept. 07 Sept. 08 Sept. 09 Sept. -10 Sept. -11

CPI 2.2 4.6 (3.6) 3.0 (2.5) 2.2 (2.3) 2.1

CPIX 1.0 3.8 (2.9) 2.4 (2.2) 2.0 (2.0) 1.9 CPIX excl. energy 1.4 2.4 (2.6) 2.2 (2.3) 2.1 (2.2) 2.0

CPI with fixed interest rate 1.3 3.9 2.7 2.2 2.1

Table A2. Change in the CPI compared to the CPIX

Annual percentage change and percentage points, ( ) = Latest MPR


2007 2008 2009 2010

CPIX 1.2 3.0 (2.5) 2.8 (2.2) 2.0 (2.0)

Effects of changes in mortgage interest expenditure 0.9 0.8 (0.8) 0.6 (0.4) 0.3 (0.3)

Effects of changes in indirect taxes and subsidies 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 (0.0)

=CPI 2.2 3.9 (3.4) 3.5 (2.5) 2.3 (2.3)

Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts

Per cent, annual average, ( ) = Latest MPR


2007 2008 2009 2010

Repo rate 3.5 4.4 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) Real repo rate 1.1 1.6 2.6 10-year rate 4.2 4.3 (4.5) 4.7 (4.8) 5.0 (5.0) Exchange rate, TCW index, 19 November 1992=100 125.2 122.8 (124.1) 121.9 (123.1) 121.9 (122.9)

General government net lending 3.4 (3.1) 3.1 (2.3) 1.3 (1.7) 0.9 (1.6)

Table A4. International conditions I


Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010

USA 2.2 (2.2) 1.4 (1.7) 1.6 (2.5) 3.0 (3.1) Japan 2.0 (1.9) 1.4 (1.5) 1.5 (1.6) 1.6 (1.5)

Euro area 2.6 (2.7) 1.7 (1.7) 1.2 (2.0) 1.9 (2.1)

OECD 2.7 (2.7) 1.8 (2.1) 1.8 (2.5) 2.6 (2.7) TCW-weighted 2.8 (2.8) 1.8 (1.9) 1.4 (2.1) 2.0 (2.3)

World 4.9 (4.8) 4.0 (4.1) 3.9 (4.2) 4.4 (4.3)

CPI 2007 2008 2009 2010

USA 2.9 4.3 (2.6) 2.8 (1.8) 2.2 (2.2) Japan 0.0 1.0 (0.2) 1.0 (0.4) 0.5 (0.5) Euro area (HICP) 2.1 3.7 (2.5) 2.7 (2.1) 2.3 (1.9) TCW-weighted 2.0 3.6 (2.4) 2.5 (1.9) 2.1 (1.9) OECD 2.4 3.4 (2.3) 2.6 (2.0) 2.2 (2.1)

2007 2008 2009 2010

Crude oil price. USD/barrel Brent 73 (73) 123 (89) 137 (87) 136 (86) Swedish export market growth 3.9 (4.3) 5.1 (5.8) 3.9 (6.2) 5.7 (6.4)

Table A5. GDP by expenditure



*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

2007 2008 2009 2010

Private consumption 3.0 (3.1) 2.2 (2.7) 2.0 (2.9) 3.0 (3.2) Public consumption 1.1 (0.3) 0.4 (1.0) 1.0 (0.4) 1.2 (1.1) Gross fixed capital formation 8.0 (8.0) 5.6 (4.4) 1.1 (1.9) 2.6 (2.4) Inventory investment, contribution * 0.7 (0.9) -0.6 (-0.1) 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) Exports 6.0 (5.0) 6.6 (5.5) 3.4 (4.8) 5.6 (5.9) Imports 9.6 (9.0) 6.5 (6.2) 4.4 (5.1) 5.6 (5.9) GDP 2.7 (2.5) 2.1 (2.4) 1.2 (2.0) 2.7 (2.8) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.1) 1.4 (2.2) 2.4 (2.5)

Table A6. Production and employment

Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = Latest MPR

Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

*Per cent of labour force

2007 2008 2009 2010

Population, aged 16-64 0.9 (0.9) 0.8 (0.4) 0.4 (0.5) 0.2 (0.1) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.1) 1.4 (2.2) 2.4 (2.5) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted

3.5 (3.2) 1.3 (1.0) -0.5 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1)

Employed (EU definition) 2.5 (2.5) 1.4 (1.1) -0.4 (0.2) -0.1 (0.1) Labour force (EU definition) 1.5 (1.5) 1.2 (0.8) 0.2 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1)

Unemployment, 15-74 (EU definition) 6.1 (6.1) 5.9 (5.9) 6.5 (5.9) 6.5 (5.8) Labour market programmes* 1.8 (1.8) 1.8 (1.8) 1.8 (1.9) 1.9 (1.8)

Table A7. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as

a wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) =

Latest MPR

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

*Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points

2007 2008 2009 2010

Hourly wage, NM 3.3 (3.6) 4.4 (4.2) 3.7 (4.0) 3.8 (3.8) Hourly wage, NA 3.3 (3.8) 4.7 (4.5) 4.0 (4.3) 4.0 (4.1) Employer’s contributions* 0.4 (-0.1) -1.2 (0.0) 0.7 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour costs, NA 3.7 (3.8) 3.5 (4.5) 4.7 (4.3) 4.1 (4.1) Productivity -0.6 (-0.4) 0.6 (1.1) 1.9 (2.1) 2.4 (2.4)

Unit labour cost 4.3 (4.2) 2.9 (3.3) 2.8 (2.2) 1.6 (1.6)

Table A8. Repo ratePer cent, annual average


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Main scenario 2.2 3.5 4.4 4.9 4.6 Lower interest rates 2.2 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3

Higher interest rates 2.2 3.5 4.6 5.5 5.1

Table A9. CPIAnnual percentage change


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



Table A10. Real repo ratePer cent


2006 2007 2008 2009 Main scenario 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.6 Lower interest rates 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.3

Higher interest rates 0.1 1.1 2.1 4.1

Table A11. GDPAnnual percentage change. seasonally adjusted

data


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Main scenario 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.4 2.4 Lower interest rates 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.6


Table A12. Number of hours worked

Annual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Main scenario 2.0 3.5 1.3 -0.5 0.0 Lower interest rates 2.0 3.5 1.4 -0.1 0.1

Higher interest rates 2.0 3.5 1.3 -0.9 -0.3

Table A13. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 years old,

according to ILO definitionPercentage of the labour force. seasonally adjusted data


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



Table A14. Lower commodity prices

Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

2007 2008 2009 2010 Commodity prices, index USD 202 (202) 229 (241) 202 (240) 198 (240) Crude oil price, Brent, USD/barrel 73 (73) 111 (123) 97 (137) 102 (136) GDP 2.9 (2.9) 1.9 (1.9) 1.4 (1.4) 3.0 (2.4) CPI 2.2 (2.2) 3.7 (3.9) 2.0 (3.5) 1.5 (2.3) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.3 (4.4) 3.6 (4.9) 3.7 (4.6) Real repo rate* 1.1 (1.1) 2.3 (1.6) 2.1 (2.6) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.8 (1.8) 1.4 (1.4) 2.3 (2.0) TCW-weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 3.3 (3.4) 2.0 (2.5) 1.9 (2.1)

TCW-weighted interest rate* 4.3 (4.3) 4.0 (4.2) 4.1 (4.8) 4.0 (4.5)

*Per cent, annual averageNote. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Commodity prices refer to commodities excluding oil products. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.

Table A15. Lower growth, higher inflation

Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified


*Per cent, annual averageNote. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.

2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP 2.9 (2.9) 1.8 (1.9) 1.0 (1.4) 2.5 (2.4) CPI 2.2 (2.2) 4.0 (3.9) 4.1 (3.5) 2.5 (2.3) Repo rate* 3.5 (3.5) 4.6 (4.4) 5.6 (4.9) 5.2 (4.6) Real repo rate* 1.1 (1.1) 1.5 (1.6) 3.0 (2.6) TCW-weighted GDP 2.8 (2.8) 1.7 (1.8) 1.0 (1.4) 2.1 (2.0) TCW-weighted CPI 2.0 (2.0) 3.6 (3.4) 3.4 (2.5) 2.8 (2.1)

TCW-weighted interest rate* 4.3 (4.3) 4.4 (4.2) 5.5 (4.8) 5.1 (4.5)

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