MTS 2016 – 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013

MTS 2016 – 2021Process

MTS Workshop23 May 2013

Slide 1

Outline

• MTS Process: Calendar and Deliverables; Objectives of the discussion

• The scope of the MTS and relationship with other Strategic exercises

• Situational analysis

• Macro-environment

• The Refugee profile

• Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and salaries)

• Income

• Vision

• Next steps Slide 2

Calendar, Related Strategic Processes, Scope of the MTS

mts - may 2013 3

Calendar (1/2)

STAGE 1: May – June 2013 (Consultation with senior management and external stakeholders; development of an MTS “Outline” and calendar)

Situational analysis / assumptions (macro environment; refugee profile; cost drivers; income)

Vision developedCalendar for MTS development

STAGE 2: July 2013 – January 2014 (Programmatic/operational strategic response; deepened consultation, continued participation in related strategic planning processes, and development of a MTS “Blueprint”)

Log-frame developmentGoals/Strategic Objectives determined. Identification of key indicators (goal/objective level)High-level implications of new vision on programmes, operations, structures. Review of partnershipsRisk analysis conducted

Slide 4

Calendar (2/2)

STAGE 3: February – March 2014 (Validation by new CG; updating building blocks)

Internal and external consultations Testing/revalidation of assumptions/ scenarios. Risk management plans developed'Costing / Valuation' of the MTS STAGE 4: April – June 2014 (Finalization)Drafting, finalization, publication of the MTSDesign operational/management reform plans for the period July 2014 –

December 2015

STAGE 5: July 2014 – December 2015 (Preparation)Complete log-frame, indicators, methodology of measurement. Programmatic and Organizational ReformsOrganizational reformsBiennium Implementation Plans and Budgets for 2016 - 2017 STAGE 6: 2016 - 2021 (Implementation)

Slide 5

Related Strategic processes

Post 2015 Development Agenda- MDG’s still resonate as essential building blocks- Need to improve, deepen, refine: Focus on quality- Inequality must be addressed. More disaggregation of data

required. - More integrated approaches. - Environmental sustainability. - More ambitious, universal and transformational development

agenda required. - Need to retain measurability and clarity.

Other global processes: - UN System Wide Action Plan on Gender- UN System Wide Action Plan on Youth

National Development Plans and UNDAF- National Development Plans are important references for UNRWA.- UNRWA is a member of UNCTs, and is involved with UNDAF on

issues/matters of common interest/intervention.

Slide 6

MTS – what it is and what it is notMust be ambitious but not overly aspirational

Must inform/guide decision-making, planning and programming

Includes: Vision, Strategic Objectives, Indicators and Targets, Risk analysis, Relationship to other actors (partnerships)

Includes key projects or areas for project interventions (as opposed to GF-funded).

Includes commitment to Emergency Response Capacity

Includes ‘emergency’ interventions where the context foresees continuation of an emergency/crisis throughout the strategic period.

Excludes reference to management reforms/initiatives already underway and due for completion prior to the Strategic period

Will guide adjustments to management systems to facilitate MTS implementation.

Slide 7

Developing a Strategic Plan

mts - may 2013 8

Developing a strategic plan

Four main factors to be taken into account as a basis for strategic planning:

- Macro-environmental factors (political, security, economic etc)

only insofar as they relate to UNRWA.

- The Refugee Profile: the high-level needs of the refugees

- The Cost of Operating (mainly salaries and numbers of employees)

- The income we receive

Slide 9

Macro-environment

mts - may 2013 10

Macro-environment

The Agency cannot create a medium-term strategy around a scenario or based on assumptions that are not considered realistic by external stakeholders. This can be a challenging and politically-sensitive task. It is important that the Agency receive the guidance of the Advisory Commission membership on arriving at an agreed and acceptable strategic planning option, with an understanding of contingencies/ adaptability based on realistic risks and opportunities.

Slide 11

Macro-environment

Regional

Limited hope of a political solution to the plight of refugees.

Region will continue to be characterized by on-going tension and conflict, requiring UNRWA to engage in different levels of human development, recovery and humanitarian activities.

Challenge will remain to mobilize sufficient resources to enable UNRWA to achieve goals and targets on all three levels – human development, recovery, humanitarian.

Slide 12

Macro-environment

West Bank:

• Continues to experience crisis with economic, social, political, institutional and humanitarian dimensions.

• The political climate not expected to change dramatically, either positively or negatively regarding the needs of the refugees or UNRWA’s operations.

• High unemployment rates and food insecurity expected to continue among Palestine refugees.

• Access and permit restrictions within the camps could lead to higher incidence of poverty.

Syria:

• Widespread instability experienced in 2013 may be quelled during the MTS period. • The Agency’s operations will be focused on humanitarian interventions, repatriation,

reconstruction/recovery interventions and eventually to a return to human development operations.

• The Agency’s ability to make significant headway on programmatic reforms (apart from those focusing on improved emergency response) during the early part of the MTS period will be modest.

• Should hostilities cease, developmental needs of the refugees in almost all respects will be higher than prior to the conflict.

Slide 13

Macro-environment

Gaza:

• Gaza remains physically and economically isolated from the West Bank and its neighbours.

• An economic blockade largely in place continues to affect movement of people and goods.

• This may pose challenges to poverty mitigation programming. • Lack of opportunity and experience in a young and growing population with

high unemployment may have an effect on utility of Human Development activities.

• The security environment continues to be characterized by periods of relative calm, punctuated with conflict.

• Political engagement, and humanitarian and reconstruction assistance continue to provide some elements of stability.

• Food insecurity is assumed to remain in the 40-60% range and unemployment in the 30-50% range during the planning period.

• Demographic projections indicate a continued and increasing need for humanitarian assistance in the form of food and cash-for-work and other programmes.

Slide 14

Macro-environment

Lebanon:

• Lebanon will continue to host refugees seeking safety from the conflict in Syria for as long as it continues.

• UNRWA will continue to be focused on humanitarian interventions more than on-going programmatic reforms.

• UNRWA will be able to resume full programmatic interventions when the conflict in Syria ceases and Palestine Refugees from Syria can return voluntarily.

• Nahr el Bared Camp (NBC): Reconstruction continues as priority – more than half of the camp will be completed prior to the MTS period.

• Displaced NBC residents will continue to depend primarily on UNRWA to address their more acute relief needs.

• Infrastructure and shelter needs will remain high within refugee camps. • The political landscape will continue to challenge the rights of Palestine

refugees prolonging existing protection gaps. • Poverty and food insecurity amongst the refugee population will continue to

be high.

Slide 15

Macro-environment

Jordan:

• Expected that Jordan will continue to host the largest numbers of registered Palestine refugees in UNRWA’s area of operations.

• Those who live in refugee camps will remain dependent on UNRWA for human development services.

• UNRWA will continue to address humanitarian interventions to those PRS who have fled from Syria, for as long as the Syrian crisis continues.

• Domestic reforms will continue in an environment where tensions among communities, including Palestine Refugees, may increase.

Slide 16

Summary from Day 1

More detail required of consultations to be carried out in Stage 2 (July – November)

Need to better define the deliverables over the coming months – including the November AdCom (including annotated Table of Contents). Will be discussed further this afternoon.

Slide 17

The description of the macro-environment in Jordan needs to be revised to exclude mention of domestic reforms, and to make clear that UNRWA’s services are not restricted to refugees in refugee camps.

The macro-environment descriptions need to be consistent insofar as they refer to the situation vs the Agency’s operations.

Summary from Day 1 (con‘t)

Regarding the relationship of the MTS with the Agency’s emergency/humanitarian work:

- MTS should deal with the Agency’s core human development programmes.- Need to include the importance of having capacity in the Agency to respond to chronic or acute emergency situations. This capacity should be built around the Agency’s strengths in humanitarian response. Mention of capacity building. - The Agency’s response in emergencies can/should be guided by principles set out in the MTS. - It must be clear that the Agency’s General Fund and core project streams should not be used to fund emergency interventions.

Slide 18

Outline

• MTS Process: Calendar and Deliverables; Objectives of the discussion

• The scope of the MTS and relationship with other Strategic exercises

• Situational analysis

• Macro-environment

• The Refugee profile

• Agency Cost drivers (mainly staff numbers and salaries)

• Income

• Vision

• Next steps Slide 19

Cautionary Note

mts - may 2013 20

Forecasting the future

Cautionary note: Challenges/dangers of relying on past trends to forecast the future.

• Unreliability of old statistics• Uncomparability of statistics• Past trends need to be subjected to great scrutiny and understood in

detail before they can be reliable indicators of the future.

Slide 21

Forecasting the future (cont.)

Examples of the difficulty of relying on the past for making future predictions:

-The inclusion of Married-to-Non-Refugee (MNR)’s in 2010 (a policy change that was endorsed by the Advisory Commission) in all Fields other than Jordan resulted in a dramatic spike in new registrations. This distorts the 10 year average. -“Registered” refugee numbers are higher (some cases, like Lebanon, significantly so) than actual resident refugees. Forecasting the future by applying past percentages using the “Registered” population will give exaggerated results. -Staff numbers experienced a significant, one-off (and not-to-be-repeated), increase in 2009 largely as a result of the decision in Gaza Field to reduce average class sizes from 1 teacher : 50 students to 1 teacher : 40 students. This decision was made in response to a perceived crisis in educational quality standards and was, by and large, endorsed by all external stakeholders. -Education and Health historical figures may not be entirely accurate. The Agency is still in the process of developing and rolling-out information management systems for Health Centres and Schools. -A change in accounting standards (UNSAS to IPSAS) in 2010 – 2011 – 2012 make it impossible to compare non-staff expenditure in the period prior with the period after.

Slide 22

Refugee Profile

mts - may 2013 23

Refugee profileDemographics JFO LFO SFO WBFO GFO Agency

10-yr ave growth# registered

‘02-’11 2.1% ’12 2.11m

1.90.474m

2.60.528m

3.60.895m

3.51.26m

2.7%5.2m

Host pop’n growth 2.2 (2010) 0.70 (2011) 2.0 (2010) 2.6 (2012) 3.5 (2012) -

2021 projected reg.2012-21 ↑

2.54m.434m

0.561m.087m

0.666m.137m

1.23m.335m

1.72m.458m

6.7m1.5m↑

2012:Gender

Female 49.0%Male 51.0%

48.851.2

51.448.6

49.550.5

49.150.9

49.3%50.6%

Ages 6-14 (basic ed.)2021 projected

19.4%492,994

12.871,859

16.1107,402

17.6217,623

20.4352,390

18.4%1,234,943

(increase of 227,000)

Ages 15-24 (youth)2021 projected

19.6%498,143

17.497,630

17.5116,995

10.1124,829

21.5371,178

19.7%1,321,356

(increase of 295,000)

Infant mortality rateHost IMR

22.618

19.08

28.213

19.518.2

20.222.4

22.0 -

Host literacy rate Host life expectancy

89.173

89.673

89.176

91.971

91.971

--

Slide 24

Agency Cost Drivers

mts - may 2013 25

Agency Cost Drivers

Three main drivers of cost:

- Numbers of Staff employed

- Cost of Staff (salaries)

- Key non-staff costs

Slide 26

Numbers of Staff Employed

JFO LFO SFO WBFO GFO Agency

10-yr ave. staff ↑Refugees ∆

‘01-’11 1.7%2.1%

2.11.9

2.82.6

2.53.5

5.13.5

3.2%2.7%

Pupil enrolment ∆Education staff

‘01-’11 -1.5%1.2%

-2.72.6

0.12.8

-1.02.3

1.75.2

0.0%3.1%

Education costs ↑ vs. with reform

‘11-’21 US$19mUS$14m

Health visits ∆Health staff

‘01-’11 2.9%2.1%

2.10.9

0.02.4

5.23.4

4.96.5

3.4%4.0%

Health direct costs ↑ vs. with reform

‘11-’21 10.1%6.4%

31.416.2

24.914.1

14.46.6

8.32.7

14.6%7.5%

Ave. change of G10 S10 salary

3.97% 6.98 8.3 4.3 3.42 5.39%

Consumer Price Index

‘02-’11 4.9% 3.8 6.5 4.5 4.5 5.0%

Purchase Orders (‘12)

876 815 699 1,131 1,717 5,238

Slide 27

Workforce Trends

mts - may 2013 28

Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)

Slide 29


Slide 30


Slide 31

Teachers vs Refugees (cumulative growth)

Slide 32


Slide 33


Slide 34

Health Staff vs Refugees (cumulative growth)

Slide 35


Slide 36


Slide 37

Sanitation vs Refugees (cumulative growth)

Slide 38


Slide 39


Slide 40

Projections

Slide 41

Staff Salaries

mts - may 2013 42

Staff Salaries

Slide 43

average change of a grade 10, step 10 salary (2002-2013)

.

Staff Salaries

Slide 44


.

Staff Salaries

Slide 45


.

Staff Salaries

Slide 46


.

Percentage of Salary Increases - Agency Wide 2000-2012

Slide 47

Source: HRD, UNRWA-Donor Compensation Briefing, 7 April 2013

total compensation packageSalaries and Supplementary Allowance given to select levels / occupations, mainly health and sanitation services to reach comparator levels.

Slide 48

Comment: The above demonstrates that the opportunity exists in some Fields for the Agency to apply new methods in the application of the existing Pay policy to not give comparable increases in salary vis – a –vis host countries while still remaining above the comparator.

education cost drivers

Slide 49 of 16

health cost drivers

Slide 50 of 16

COMMENT: Reduction resulting, in part, from the purchase of cheaper medications from Syrian sources

GF Cash Flow 2010 - 2013

mts - may 2013 51

Cash flow 2010 - 2013

Slide 52 of 16

UNRWA Cash Flows Amount in $m

2010 2011 2012 2013 Actual Actual Actual F/COpening Balance 18.1 79.5 32.9 6.5 Cash Inflows Donor Inflows 531.0 494.1 529.0 510.2 PSC 21.5 26.2 21.9 20.0 Other Income 17.3 3.6 1.8 0.8 Total Cash Inflows 569.8 523.9 552.7 531.0 Outflows GFO (192.7) (198.6) (212.3) (203.9)LFO (69.5) (69.8) (76.4) (83.3)SFO (43.0) (48.0) (48.6) (41.4)JFO (109.6) (101.6) (119.3) (126.4)WBFO (88.7) (95.7) (94.0) (93.7)Others (4.9) (56.9) (28.5) (55.5) Total Outflows (508.4) (570.5) (579.1) (604.2) Surplus/Deficit 79.5 32.9 6.5 (66.7)

Cash flow 2010 - 2013

Slide 53 of 16

Summary of cash flows

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013

Actual Actual Actual F/C *

Inflows 570 524 553 531

Outflows 508 571 579 604

* From April 2013 Forecast, i.e cash deficit - $67m

See next slide

Cash flow 2010 - 2013

Slide 54 of 16

2010:

1. There was an foreign exchange (FX) gain of $18m which decreased cash outflows. 2. There was a one-off prior period adjustment of $14m which also served to decrease cash outflows.

2011:

3. There was an additional $14m cash outflow because of the appreciation of the NIS. 4. Increased staff costs added a further $9m.

GF income projections & historical funding trends

Separate Presentation

mts - may 2013 55

summary of morning discussions

mts - may 2013 56

Summary of morning discussions

It is difficult to predict the future. The hosts have made a couple red lines clear. Universal

access to schools and health centres. Must deliver quality services. Emergency activities must not compete for limited GF resources.

Salaries for teachers, health staff and sanitation staff will continue to be the main part of the Agency’s budget.

The number of staff will continue to grow because the main driver – number of refugees – is growing. The pace of increase will depend on several factors.

Although opportunity exists to adjust the way in which the Agency applies its pay policy to reduce the financial pain, the cost of a large workforce will grow.

Non-staff costs are expected to grow but opportunities exist with partners – including some hosts (e.g., solid waste, rent).

We can make quality improvements using the staff we have. But cost efficiencies from the reforms will not be enough to solve the financial problems.

Slide 57

Summary of morning discussions

There is no one-size fits all solution to the problem. We can do more on resource mobilization but it will

be difficult to achieve the optimistic funding scenario without changing the product being sold.

Selling education and health alone will not be enough. We need more money for the General Fund and core projects to ensure we are providing quality education and quality health accessible to all refugees.

Provided that the financial crisis does not force short-term dramatic changes, we have the time to make strategic shifts.

Strategic goals need to be set that will help resource mobilization efforts.

Slide 58

Vision and Goals for the Strategic Period

mts - may 2013 59

Vision vs Goals

Vision: Aspirational. Reflective of the Agency’s mandate.

Strategic Goals: What, concretely, do we want to be achieved by 2021?

Slide 60

Vision

The Agency’s vision is for every Palestine refugee to enjoy the best possible standards of human development, especially:

• attaining his or her potential individually and as a family and community member;

• being an active and productive participant in socio-economic and cultural life; and

• feeling assured that his or her rights are being defended, protected and preserved.

Does this adequately describe what the Agency stands for?

Has poverty mitigation grown as an imperative to frame existing activities in the foreseen context?

Slide 61

Goals for the current (2009 – 2015) MTS Period

• A long and healthy life;• Acquired knowledge and skills;• A decent standard of living;• Human rights enjoyed to the fullest extent

possible.

Should these goals be revisited, and/or other goals added to capture on-going emergency and universality?

Slide 62

Some questions to guide discussion

Possible inclusion of a commitment to universal access to quality Basic Education and to quality Basic Health.

Definition of “Basic Health” – is it clear? Is there a need to be more specific about the areas of priority intervention – e.g., non-communicable diseases.

What does it mean to provide access to “quality” Education and Health?

Possible need to reflect on the Agency’s role in mitigating poverty. Need to include specific target groups to suit the Agency’s strengths?

Reference to Youth?

Emergency-prepared and Emergency-ready. Reference to the advancement of refugee rights?

Slide 63

Next Steps

mts - may 2013 64

Next Steps for June AdCom

June AdCom: - Assumptions/scenario on macro environment- Cost drivers – trends and forecasts. - Income projections- Mandate, vision, strategic goals for the Strategic

Period. - Proposed components of strategic goals or

possible strategic goals themselves. - MTS Calendar – now to 31 December 2015

Slide 65

Next Steps for November AdCom

Deliverables for November AdCom: - Develop High Level Logical Framework

(Objectives, Indicators, Baselines, Targets)- Programmatic response and reform (how

operations would be adjusted to a new set of objectives)

- Organizational structures/systems and reform- Partnerships- Risk Analysis- Preliminary Costing*

Consultations: - Internal management- External stakeholders - Refugees

Slide 66

Costing the MTS

What is required to provide a “cost” of the MTS?

- What we are trying to achieve. What targets are we setting for ourselves.

- Costing some elements of the MTS is relatively easy.

“Costing” needs also to include core complementary projects.

Slide 67

Date post:	04-Jan-2016
Category:	Documents
Upload:	alessandra-tandy
View:	45 times
Download:	5 times

MTS 2016 – 2021 Process MTS Workshop 23 May 2013

Documents