Multi-Tier Framework Survey Kenya

Preliminary Results for 14 underserved counties in Kenya

May 9, 2017

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Ministry of Energy &

Petroleum, Kenya

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Part 1 – Overview of the Approach

Introduction: Profile of Kenya

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• Unitary state under a Presidential system with some functions devolved to 47 counties led by Governors

• Population: 46 million, GDP: US$ 63.4 Billion, GDP per capita US$ 1,377 (Source: World Bank, 2015)

• About 4.8 million HH (FY 2015/6) connected up from 2.3 million (FY 2012/3) (Source: Kenya Power, 2016)

• 64% of the population have access to grid electricity (MoEP, 2017 estimates)

• Installed capacity at 2,341 MW (Source: Kenya Power 2016)

Key Aspects of the MTF Survey

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- Moving from a binary approach of measuring electricity access (electrified vs non-electrified) to evaluating this based on MTF’s six attributes of (i) peak capacity, (ii) availability, (iii) reliability, (iv) quality, (v) legality and (vi) safety

- Target including oversampling:

Key Outputs of the MTF Survey

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• 7,331 interviews were completed (6,025 households, 477 education facilities, 150 health facilities, 133 government offices, 246 worship centers and 305 focus group discussions).

• Extensive dataset covering various aspects including (1647 possible Qs):

- basic demographics, occupation,

- access to finance,

- grid based electricity and non-grid based electricity,

- energy for cooking and other thermal applications

- energy consumption and costs,

- total household consumptions

- exposure to indoor air pollution,

- attitudes towards modern energy, among others.

• 1591 interviews were completed in the 14 underserved counties. This is the focus of this presentation.

Lessons from the MTF

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• Backend automation: Minimize opportunities for human errors (CAPI, ODK, GIS tools etc.)

• Training approaches: All questions are equal but some are more equal than others

• Layers of verification: GIS maps, use independent verifiers, random calls to respondents, duration of the interviews etc.

• Standardize but consider the local context: For example, (i) Types of questions “do you own land”, “how much rent would you receive”; (ii) Use local enumerators and entities; (iii) Train locally; (iv) Data collection team should also be the data cleaning team (the case of US$ 1.5 connections)

• Limit interview duration to 1 hour: Validate through pre-testing

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Part 2 – Summary of Findings (14 Counties ONLY)

Power Sector: Vision

• Grid connectivity is limited to the Mombasa-Nairobi-Kisumu corridor and remains nascent and uneconomical for the project area

• Historical focus on centralized grid extension

• National electrification rate of Kenya is 64% -aiming for universal electrification by 2020

• Last Mile Connectivity Program plans to achieve 70% electrification

• The presentation features results only from the 14 underserved counties and not the entire county

Transform Kenya into a newly

industrializing, middle-income

country providing a high quality of

life to all its citizens.

Access to competitively-priced,

reliable, quality, safe, and

sustainable energy is essential

for achievement of the vision.

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The 14 Underserved Counties

• Higher incidence of poverty and low income levels• Highly dispersed population (including pastoralist communities)• About 20% of Kenya’s population live in the underserved counties• Total population estimated to be 1.2 million households, off-grid population

is 650,000 households

Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey

Traditional Binary Approach (Grid Only)

57%

10%

3%

14%10%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5

61%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No Electricity Access Electricity Access

Multi-tier Framework Approach

A few grid connected HH are

in Tier 0

Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey (Rural vs Urban)

68%

13%

2%

7%5% 5%

39%

7%4%

23%

16%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5

Rural Urban

Over 50% of urban HH are in tier 3+

Findings: Grid Alternatives (Solar Devices)

1

2

1

2

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Urban Rural Urban Rural

Grid access No grid access All HHs

SL users SLS users

SHS users HH with multiple systems

Solar Lanterns (SL)

Solar Lighting Systems (SLS)

Solar Home Systems (SHS)

% HH with SL comparable in rural grid connected & non-

connected HH

33% of HH have at least solar device

Findings: Duration of Use & Satisfaction

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3

• Over 70% of all solar devices acquired in the last 3 years• 52% of SHS owners report being satisfied or very satisfied• 45% of SLS and lanterns report being satisfied or very satisfied

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Rural Urban TOTAL

Years using solar

less than 1 1-3 years more than 3 years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Rural Urban Total

% satisfied or very satisfied

solar home system solar lantern and solar lighting systems All devices

Findings: Appliance Ownership

1

4

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

at least one mobile phone

tv

radio

refrigerator

fan

High mobile phone ownership linked to high demand for solar devices

Findings: Use of Mobile Money

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5

More households have an mobile money account than own a mobile phone

1

5

• 89% of HHs use mobile money

for multiple applications:

• Sending and/or receiving

money to/from family &

friends

• Topping up credit

• Transferring credit to family

or friends

• Paying bills

Findings: Solar PV Acquisition

1

6

The rest acquired through cash sales

1

6

Solar Lanterns (SL)

Solar Lighting Systems (SLS)

Solar Home Systems (SHS)

7%

1%5%

32%34%

4%

0%

20%

40%

SL SLS SHS

Findings: Lighting for off-grid (Non-Solar)

1

7

1

71

7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Urban rural TOTAL

not grid/mini-grid connected and not solar

kerosene dry cells w/torches

candles generators

rechargable batteries no lighting source

Unelectrified households still rely mostly on kerosene, followed by dry cells/torches

Findings: Cost of Replaceable Energy Services

1

8

1

81

8

1

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Urban

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Rural

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total

• Over 30% of unelectrified households already pay over $5 a month for lighting, cell phone charging and dry cell batteries

• But 50% pay less than $2 a month - affordability is an issue

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Consultants:

• EED Advisory Limited (www.eedadvisory.com)

• Stockholm Environment Institute (www.sei-international.org)