Music Like Water: why, what, when and how?

‣ Futurist‣ Strategist‣ Author & Blogger

www.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

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‣ Understand‣ Develop Ideas‣ Catalyze Changewww.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

Clients such as IBM, Google, Nokia, DDB, Deutsche Telekom,

Sony BMG, Orange / France Telecom, BBC, ITV, RTL, The

European Commission, TribalDDB, Omnicom, Siemens, Telkom

Indonesia, BOL...

What I do:

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A big “Thank You” to everyone in my NetworkMost of what I ‘know’ you have given to me.

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Knowledge grows when sh

ared

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Listening, Reading & Watching = Copying

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The value of Music is no longer (just) in the Copy

Selling ‘units’ is yesterday’s concern - and so is the

definition of a ‘Sale’Trying to maintain total control of distribution is

pointless

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The value of Music is no longer (just) in the Copy

Selling ‘units’ is yesterday’s concern - and so is the

definition of a ‘Sale’Trying to maintain total control of distribution is

pointless

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The World’s OS is Morphing

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The new OS

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Sharing? You ain’t seen nothing yet...

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The global switch from Closed to Open

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EducationTelecommunication

Media & Content

BusinessEnergy

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Yet, in Music we are approaching total Copyright Gridlock

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This is a very bad idea

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Because...

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http://mahasiah.wordpress.com/

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What does this remind you of?“France's Ministry of Culture estimates that 1,000 people a day could be cut off from

the internet under the bill. After first being sent a warning email and then a formal letter by Hadopi, those accused of illegal file- sharing for a third time could be

disconnected for up to a year and face a €300,000 fine and jail time. Even those found guilty of "negligence" for allowing others (such as their children) to pirate online

material risk a month-long internet suspension and a €1,500 fine..."

Source: The Guardian Sept 10 09

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The Music Economy is Broken The System is certified dysfunctional

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Source: Techdirt

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Let’s not confuse things

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200 Million users seems entirely realistic20 songs per day =

4 Billion plays per day @ 1 Cent USD$40 Million PER DAY in license fees for the masters

14.6 BILLION USD per year in licensing costsPlus: costs for Public Performance in 50+ countries

Plus: payments to composersPlus: technical costs = 50% of Google’s yearly $$

Why this can’t possibly work

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And this is not a unique problem

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A market-driven solution is very unlikely

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Private deals for public services?What choice did they have?

How much control does this leave them?Is this ‘fair business practice’?

But it gets worse

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A market-driven solution is very unlikely"In parallel, the two companies will be working together to protect Universal Music's intellectual property and drive a material reduction in the unauthorised distribution of its repertoire across Virgin Media's network," said a statement.

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“A new Social Contract”

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What would this look like?

First, legalize it - give permissionAll use - all pay * or otherwise generate $ value

Many kinds of payments emergeRights are public, open and standardizedLicenses are available to every business

Data-Mining and Market Access is $ value, too

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Public License + Build-in Revenues

+ Proportional Distribution

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Where will that Euro / Week come from?

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With a new Internet Music

License we don’t just sell something - we also buy something!

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A new and very lucrative Ecosystem would emerge

Flat Rates, Bundles, Revenue-Sharing

Live-Concerts, Web-Casts, Virtual Shows...

Mobile Device Applications & Software

High Definition & Premium Media

Community Premium Services

Many other New Generatives

Permission

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We don’t pay to eat all the food... we pay for access

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If we had a public music license, this would already be money in the bank!

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So why is there still so little revenue from Youtube, Myspace, Facebook...?

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• Advertisers are always 2-3 years behind• Lack of permission for legal content has

resulted in much slower adoption• Lack of public license has deterred new

investors• Mobile broadband and smart mobile

devices are just now starting to take off

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Expect rad ica l habi t changes when the techno logy actua l l y works

REVENUE

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And this would become a huge business, too

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With a public music license, the Longtail & Success in the Niches becomes very real, too

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Image: Flickr.com/WhiskersandWhispers

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Summary: my proposal *since 1999

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•Legalize it: a public, collective, open

License for the use of Music online

•Collaborative efforts to develop new,

web-native revenue streams

•A new social contract for Content

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• email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com• twitter.com/gleonhard• facebook: gleonhard• more presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for listening!

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