Muslim Radicalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Juan Cole

www.juancole.com

Afghanistan

Ethnic Groups

• Pushtuns in South

• Hazaras in Center

• Tajiks in northeast, northwest

• Uzbeks in North

Afghanistan

• Pop. 24 mn.

• Literacy 36 %

• 30% of 7,000 schools destroyed under Taliban

• GDP $5 bn.; per capita $208 (among poorest in world)

• Life expectancy: 43

Rise of Taliban

Pakistan backs seminary students from early 90s

“Taliban”

Trained by Northwest Frontier Constabulary

Then Inter-Services Intelligence

After Taliban

• Tajik Northern Alliance dominates government

• President Karzai (a Pushtun) is weak

• Little investment by US, int’l community

• Provinces fall into hands of warlords

US, NATO

• 9,000 US troops still engaged in search and destroy

• 2003 August – ISAF in Kabul taken over by NATO.

• ISAF beginning to branch out

Taliban Commanders• Former Taliban commanders

• Saifur Rahman commanded Taliban against Operation Anaconda spring 2002

• In east, the Taliban's former deputy prime minister, Mullah Kabir, is supreme commander

• Works with with activists of the Hizb-i Islami. Ties to Inter-Services Intelligence in Pakistan

Resurgence of Taliban• 2003 June – 49 killed in

clashes between Taliban fighters and government troops in Kandahar.

• Tie between terrorists, drug running – 200,000 acres under poppy

cultivation despite ban

– 40% of economy comes from opium ($2 bn.)

Taliban Attacks

• Force of 2500 Taliban hiding out just over border in Pakistan

• 13 aid workers killed in Afghanistan in 2003

• 9 already gunned down in second half of February

• Including bombings, assassinations of UN personnel

Constitution & Elections

• 2004 January - Grand assembly - or Loya Jirga - adopts new constitution. President is stronger than Pushtun warlords and Islamists had wanted.

• Islam as religion of state.

• Question of whether elections can be held

Pakistan

• 4 Provinces and Kashmir

• Punjab• Sind• Baluchistan• NWFP

(Pushtuns)• Azad Kashmir

Pakistan Challenges

• Pop. of 145 mn. Growing 2.1% per annum• Low literacy 45%• Poor school system; madrasahs substitute• Still predominantly rural, poor• Few signs of India-style globalization• Light textiles important, disrupted by recent wars• Militant Muslim groups grew up during anti-

Soviet war, Kashmir

Musharraf• Secular minded

• Hawk on Kashmir

• 1999 coup

• Turns on Taliban Sept. 2001

• Phony referendum May 2002

• Attempt to sideline major parties Oct. 2002 backfires

• Islamists do well, hang parliament

Pakistanis Largely not Islamists

• Cautions:– Most Pakistanis are not interested in political

Islam– Strong influence of Sufi mysticism,

traditionalism in countryside– Pakistan People’s Party relatively secular– Even Muslim League more for big landlords

than for Islamism– 1971-2001 Islamist parties never get more than

3% of vote in national elections

Pakistan’s Interest in Afghanistan

• Instability blocks Turkmenistan gas pipeline

• Central Asian trade

Kashmir

• Jihadi groups trained in Afghanistan

• Could hit India in Kashmir

• Which Pakistan claims

Muslim Political Parties

• MMA main groups:

– Jama`at-i Islami

– Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam [JUI] (Deobandi)

– Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan [JUP]

Jama`at-i Islami• Fundamentalist• Initially anti-democratic• Cadre organization• Qazi Hussain Ahmad• Does well in elections for

first time in Oct. 2002• Demands return to 1973

constitution• Musharraf must take off

uniform• Denies existence of al-

Qaeda, demands end to manhunt

Jamiat Ulama-i Islam

• Radical clerics• Madrasahs trained

Taliban• Leader Fazlur Rahman• Opposes US• Wants manhunt for al-

Qaeda stopped

Radical Jihadi Groups

• Militant Organizatons– The Army of the Pious

– The Army of Muhammad

– Soldiers of the Companions

• Anti-Shiite; close to al-Qaeda

– Movement for the Imposition of Shiite Law

Army of the Pious (Lashkar-i Taibah)• Rooted in Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad

(MDI), fundamentalist organization.

• Had recruited anti-Soviet fighters in 80s

• 1990 forms LT

• 1993 enters Kashmir

• Fighters trained in madrasahs

• Suspected in Delhi Parliament attack Dec. 2001

• Banned Jan. 2002

• Leader Hafiz Md. Saeed

• Regroups, MDI separates activities in Pakistan from LT in Kashmir

• LT now underground

• Seeks Central Asian pan-Islam

Jaish Muhammad

• The Army of Muhammad– Founded 2000

– By Masood Azhar

– active in Kashmir

– Funded by Bin Laden

– 13 Dec. 2001 Delhi parliament attack

– Banned Jan. 2002

– Dec. 2003 assassination attempt on Musharraf

Army of the Companions• Sipah-i Sahabah

• Emerges in Jhang area of Panjab mid-80s

• Violently anti-Shiite

• Assassinations of Shiites, Christians

• Trained in Afghanistan with Taliban

• Headed by Azam Tariq until his assassination Oct. 2003

• Was elected from Jhang to parliament

Pakistani Army and AQ Khan

• Much smuggling of nuclear secrets happened 1989-91

• Under Mirza Aslam Beg, Chief of Staff

• (Beg denies being in charge of nuclear program)

• Khan is an Islamic Nationalist who believes it is hypocritical for US to support Israel’s bomb

• ISI links to Islamists a worry; 3-year rotations