2014-15

P R E S E N T S

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD SEEDSURVEY REPORT

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

Mustard seed (RMSeed) is the second most important oil seed crop in India after soybean. It accounts for nearly 20- 22% of the total oilseeds produced in the country. Mustard seed is grown with a different consumption pattern in the country. Indian mustard is mainly used for extraction of mustard oil while black mustard is mainly used as a spice. White mustard is used as fodder crop or as green manure. Though the varieties grown under the Brassica family are different depending on the country, the trend in international futures prices in canola and rapeseed has an impact on domestic mustard seed as India is a major edible oil importing country.

Rapeseed mustard includes eight different species viz. Indian mustard, toria, yellow sarson, brown sarson, gobhi sarson, karan rai, black mustard and taramira, which are cultivated in 53 countries across the world.

Mustard Seed is a Rabi season crop sown during Oct-Nov and harvested during March -April. Marketing season starts from March and end during Feb. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are the major producing states.

INTRODUCTION

CROP CHARACTERISTICS

Country Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

India

China

EU

Canada

Sowing Season Growth Period Harvesting

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

In India, mustard seed is mainly grown in North-West parts of India. Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are the major producing states in the country. The production from Rajasthan is highly monsoon dependent. The other significant producers are Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat, West Bengal and Assam.

Total area under RMSeed and associate crops in India for the year 2013-14 is 71.30 lakh hectares. It has increased by 5.6% as compared to previous year.

Total production of RMSeed and associate crops in India for the year 2013-14 is 73.00 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.

Average yield for the year 2013-14 is 1023 kg/hectare as against 1007 kg/hectare during the year 2012-13. It has increased by 1.5% as compared to previous year.

Edible Oil production in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.6% over past six years led by growth in Soybean Oil (3.4%) and Rapeseed Oil (3.8%).

INDIAN SCENARIO

STATEWISE IMPORTANT RMSEED TRADING CENTERS

MAJOR PRODUCING STATES IN INDIA

Rajasthan43%

UP14%

MP11%

W. Bengal6%

Haryana8%

Gujarat4%

Others14%

Rajasthan UP MP W. Bengal

Haryana Gujarat Others

Rajasthan UP MP Haryana Gujarat Sriganganagar Agra Pohari Gohana Thara Tonk Aligarh Guna Revari Mansa Kota Haathras Morena Ateli Dhanera Baran Jhansi Dabra Hissar Patan Niwai Kosikalan Lashkar Sirsa Tharad Bundi Lalitpur Tikamgarh Meham Siddhpur Alwar Saharanpur Sheopur Kalan Bhattu Kalan Jamnagar Kotputali Hapur Bina Adampur Visnagar Kherli Kanpur Kolaras Bhiwani Deesa (Bhidi) Sawai Madhopur Mathura Shivpuri Fatehabad Palanpur Fatenagar Varansi Gotegaon Uklana Bhabhar Hindoun Alot Loharu Talod Itava Bhind Farukh Nagar Halvad Bharatpur Datia Ding Dehgam Goluwala Satna Elanabad Mehsana Surathgarh Narsinhgarh Taura Panthawada

Source: USDA

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

India is the fourth producer of RMSeed contributing to around 11 % of world’s total production. India produces around 65 lakh tonnes of RMseed and around 26 lakh tonnes of RMseed oil and 35 lakh tonnes oil cake.

The production in India has been witnessing an increasing trend since the 2001-2014 decade due to increasing usage of RMSeed oil in food. Moreover, strong domestic demand for RMSeed oil was also one of the reasons for rise in production. Rajasthan alone contributes 43% of the total RMseed production in India.

INDIAN PRODUCTION OF RMSEED

INDIA RMSEED AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD

SURVEY MAP

Source: USDA

Source: Google Maps

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

MAJOR PRODUCING STATES IN INDIA

Rapeseed Growing Area Map

INDIA

LEGEND

Minor growing areas

Major growing areasMap not to scale

DELHI

MYANMAR

Source: www.mapsofindia.com

MAJOR PRODUCING AREAS IN RAJASTHAN

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

LEGEND

International BoundaryState BoundaryDistrict BoundaryMajor Growing AreaDistrict Headquater

Map not to scale

Source: www.mapsofindia.com

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

IMAGES OF THE MUSTARD CROP IN RAJASTHAN & GUJARAT

Sumerpur Mandi, Pali

Shivganj, Sirohi

Sanchor, Jalore | Difference between Early andLate sowing crop

Alwar

Sriganganagar | 15 day crop

Bikaner

Dausa | Crop damaged due to high temperature

Sawai Madhopur

Revadar, Sirohi

Total area under RMSeed in India for the year 2013-14 is 64.54 lakh hectares. It has increased by 2.2% as compared to previous year.

Total production of RMSeed in India for the year 2013-14 is 72.82 lakh tonnes. It has increased by 9.5% as compared to previous year.

Average yield for the year 2013-14 is 1128 kg/hectare as against 1053 kg/hectare during the year 2012-13. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.

INDIAN CROP SCENERIO 2013-14

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

Bharatpur | Excellent crop Jaipur

Bhartpur | Crop cannot growth due to high temperature

Banaskantha

Radhanpur

Patan

We undertook a survey of Mustard Seed crop in growing areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan.

In Gujarat, the districts of Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mehsana, Patan, Gandhinagar, Surendra Nagar and Ahmedabad were covered.

In Rajasthan, the districts of Jalore, Sirohi, Pali, Jaipur, Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Karauli, Bharatpur and Alwar were covered.

This exercise involved visiting Mustard Seed fields, interacting with nearly 100 farmers, physical brokers and RMSeed crop scientists of Mustard research centre at Bharatpur, Rajasthan and Krishi Vigyan Kendra - Deesa Gujarat, Jalore, Rajasthan and Dausa, Rajasthan.

RMSeed sowing for 2014-15 season is expected at 60.18 lakh hectares, which is lower by 4.36 lakh hectares from last year. Lower sowing in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh this season pulled down the all India sowing figure.

Rapeseed & Mustard: Area coverage during Rabi 2014-15 is lower by 4.36 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of Rabi 2013-14.

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

STATEWISE AREA, YIELD AND PRODUCTION IN INDIA 2013-14

PROGRESS OF RMSEED SOWING IN 2014-15

RELIGARE CROP SURVEY REPORT

Source: SEA

2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14Rajasthan 26.74 29.27 1171 1286 31.31 37.64Uttar Pradesh 7.68 10.26 1146 1100 8.80 11.29Madhya Pradesh 8.05 7.79 893 851 7.19 6.63Haryana/PB 5.90 5.70 1251 1350 7.38 7.70Gujarat 2.14 2.33 1449 1680 3.10 3.91West Bengal 4.80 4.10 688 600 3.30 2.46Chhaattisgarh 1.45 0.67 717 807 1.04 0.54Others 6.39 4.42 681 600 4.35 2.65Total 63.15 64.54 1053 1128 66.48 72.82

Area (lakh Ha)

Yield (kg/ha)

Production (lakh tonnes)State

-4.3662.08 60.18 58.17 54.07 64.54 57.11

Normal Area (5 Years Average)

Area sown as on (Lakh Ha.) Coverage area

2013-14

Coverage area

2012-13

Changed Compared

to 20134.12.2014 27.11.2014 20.11.2014

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI

Rajasthan farmers sowed near 25.84 lakh hectares vs. 29.27 lakh hectares last season. Low prices, around Rs 2900-3000 per 100 Kg of Mustard Seed during sowing is the primary reason for lower sowing, farmers said. Secondary reason for fall in sowing in Rajasthan was delay in monsoon arrival. Also delayed harvesting of kharif crops ensured a delayed sowing of Mustard crop. Higher temperature during sowing period also had an adverse impact on the sowing. Farmers also indicated that a shift to sowing Barley was undertaken this time as that fetched higher rates.

Gujarat farmers sowed near 1.88 lakh hectares vs 2.33 lakh hectares last season. Delay in monsoon during sowing time is the major reason for lower sowing, farmers said. Delayed harvesting of the cotton crop too delayed the sowing for Mustard in Gujarat.

Madhya Pradesh farmers sowed nearly 6.40 lakh hectares vs 7.79 lakh hectares last season. Lower rates and delayed arrival of the monsoon were again the primary reasons for the lower crop sowing. Also late harvesting of the kharif crops delayed the sowing in this state also.

Uttar Pradesh farmers sowed near 11.32 lakh hectares vs 10.26 lakh hectares last season. Rains in this stage during the sowing period had a favorable impact on the sowing for this state—resulting in higher acreage.

Haryana farmers sowed near 5.25 lakh hectares vs 5.45 lakh hectares last season. Delayed harvesting of kharif crops and delayed arrival of the monsoon rains were again the primary reasons for the fall in area in Haryana.

West Bengal farmers sowed near 4.25 lakh hectares vs 4.10 lakh hectares last season. Assam farmers sowed near 2.27 lakh hectares vs. 2.42 lakh hectares last season.

Visiting the RM fields of Gujarat and Rajasthan, one got a sense that the physical traders/brokers were very pessimistic about this year’s crop. Physical traders were concerned that due to deficient rains and a phase of severe hot weather, the productivity may decrease. Farmers were not as pessimistic but were concerned about the negative impact of the hot wave on yields. Scientists however were confident that the yields were as good as if not better than last season and were expecting a good crop.

During 2013-14, rapeseed production for Canada, EU-27, China, and India increased. The area and production of mustard seed have been increasing consistently. Being an important source of oil and protein meal, mustard seed is grown across the world.

The area of mustard seed has decreased from 36.30 million hectares to 36.15 million hectares in 2013-14. It has decreased by 0.5% as compared to previous year while the production has increased from 62.91 million tonnes to 67.92 million tonnes with a CAGR of 11% during the period 2013-14.

European Union (27) is the leading producer of mustard seed in the world accounting for 35% of the world production - followed by Canada (21%), China (22%) and India (11%). EU, China and Canada all together account for 82% of the world mustard seed production during 2013-14. Higher rapeseed production for Canada, Australia, China and Ukraine more than offsets lower production for EU-27 which was caused by the weather vagaries. The purposes of both the rapeseed and mustard seed is similar which makes it important to throw light on the major global producers of these two crops which gives a clear idea about global supplies.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tonnes, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million bushels reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million bushels from last month but still the highest since 2006/07.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $340 to $380 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends reflecting lower-than-expected early season vegetable oil prices and lower petroleum prices.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower seed. Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 million tonnes with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes mainly on increased production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tonnes based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Other changes include increased sunflower seed production for EU and reduced peanut production for Argentina. Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised yields.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.3 million tonnes, up 0.8 million tonnes from last month. Soybean exports account for most of the change with higher projections for the US, Paraguay, Ukraine, and Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from last month and 23.5 million tonnes above year-earlier levels. Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the US.

LATEST USDA REPORT (10.12.2014)

TECHNICAL LEVELS

RETAIL RESEARCH

MUSTARD CROP SURVEY REPORT 2014-15

Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_rcl.html

NCDEX April contract

S1

3200-3250

S2

3000-3050

R1

3840-3880

R2

4200

research@religare.com, agri.research@religare.com

h