MVS Mainstem Forecast Model Update:

NETMISS2

by

Joel Asunskis, P.E.Hydraulic Engineer, St. Louis District Water Control

U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers

October 30, 2007

MVS Mainstem Forecast Model Update:

NETMISS2

by

Joel Asunskis, P.E.Hydraulic Engineer, St. Louis District Water Control

U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers

October 30, 2007

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

St. Louis DistrictSt. Louis District

10 rivers

5 lock & dam sites

5 Corps lakes

750 miles of levees

92 flood control systems

416 miles of navigable channel

70 pumping plants

162 recreation areas

1 hydropower plant

10 rivers

5 lock & dam sites

5 Corps lakes

750 miles of levees

92 flood control systems

416 miles of navigable channel

70 pumping plants

162 recreation areas

1 hydropower plant

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

MVS L&D OperationsMVS L&D Operations

MVS is unique in the way its Locks & Dams are operated within MVD• Pool Instructions:

L&D 24: “Remain at 446.2 +/- 0.1”L&D 25: “Lower to 429.7 +/- 0.1 by 1800”

• Special Conditions:Rapidly changing flows at Pools 24 and 25 can require

pools to go from maximum regulated to minimum regulated pool in less than a 24-hour period (449.0-445.5 and 434.0-429.7).

MVS is unique in the way its Locks & Dams are operated within MVD• Pool Instructions:

L&D 24: “Remain at 446.2 +/- 0.1”L&D 25: “Lower to 429.7 +/- 0.1 by 1800”

• Special Conditions:Rapidly changing flows at Pools 24 and 25 can require

pools to go from maximum regulated to minimum regulated pool in less than a 24-hour period (449.0-445.5 and 434.0-429.7).

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MVS L&D OperationsMVS L&D Operations

Mel Price is unique in the way it operates within MVS• Last dam before open-river conditions• Low Water:

At approximately 5ft. gate restrictions applyAt approximately 2ft.

With approved deviation, change maximum regulated pool to 419.5.

24-hr monitoring of upstream locks and Missouri flows. Water Control issues every gate change as needed

24-hrs/day. Coordination with RIAC intensifies.

Mel Price is unique in the way it operates within MVS• Last dam before open-river conditions• Low Water:

At approximately 5ft. gate restrictions applyAt approximately 2ft.

With approved deviation, change maximum regulated pool to 419.5.

24-hr monitoring of upstream locks and Missouri flows. Water Control issues every gate change as needed

24-hrs/day. Coordination with RIAC intensifies.

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

Hinge Point OperationHinge Point Operation

Play Hinge Point Video

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Goals Of NETMISS 2Goals Of NETMISS 2

Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on:• Hinge Point Levels• Tail Water Levels• Reach profiles/stages

Take advantage of the new routing technologies and Algorithms (HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta)

To improve upon operational forecasting

Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on:• Hinge Point Levels• Tail Water Levels• Reach profiles/stages

Take advantage of the new routing technologies and Algorithms (HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta)

To improve upon operational forecasting

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

NETMISS2NETMISS2

A Visual Basic 6.0 application• Utilizes the Unsteady Flow routing capabilities of

HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta• Data Storage in HEC-DSS

A Visual Basic 6.0 application• Utilizes the Unsteady Flow routing capabilities of

HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta• Data Storage in HEC-DSS

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

NETMISS2NETMISS2

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

MVS System ExtentsMVS System Extents

Salt River

Cuivre River

Illinois River

Meramec River

Chain of Rocks

Kaskaskia River

Big Muddy River

Ohio River

Missouri River

St. LouisLock 27

Q

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MVS Model ExtentsMVS Model Extents

Salt River

Cuivre River

Illinois River

Meramec River

Chain of Rocks

Kaskaskia River

Big Muddy River

Ohio River

Missouri River

St. Louis

L&D 24 Pool

L&D 25 Pool

MP L&D Pool

Middle Mississip

pi/

Lower Model

Lock 27

Q

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

Boundary ConditionsBoundary Conditions

HEC-RAS Model

Uniformly Distributed Lateral Inflow

U/S BC Flow

D/S BC Stage

Tributary BC Flow

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InputInput

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Model Input

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

L&D 24 InputL&D 24 Input

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Model Input

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

L&D 24 Pool EstimateL&D 24 Pool Estimate

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Open River Rating Curve ShiftOpen River Rating Curve Shift

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Guide Curve Editor

Guide Curve Editor

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Open River Rating CurveEditor

Open River Rating CurveEditor

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AnalysisAnalysis

Analysis and Model Execution

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HEC-RAS ExecutionHEC-RAS Execution

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Calibration ModeCalibration Mode

Calibration Mode

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N-Factor ManagmentN-Factor Managment

In HEC-RAS 4.0 there is a limit in the number of flow/n-factor adjustments• Restricted to 30 values• Requires a larger flow interval between factors for a wide

range of model operation

NETMISS2 has a n-Factor repository for each model that expands allows each model to have up to 256 intervals.• Tribs –> 600 – 1000 cfs• Illinois –> 1000 cfs• Missouri –> 1000 cfs• Upper Mississippi –> 5000 cfs• Lower Mississippi –> 5000 cfs

In HEC-RAS 4.0 there is a limit in the number of flow/n-factor adjustments• Restricted to 30 values• Requires a larger flow interval between factors for a wide

range of model operation

NETMISS2 has a n-Factor repository for each model that expands allows each model to have up to 256 intervals.• Tribs –> 600 – 1000 cfs• Illinois –> 1000 cfs• Missouri –> 1000 cfs• Upper Mississippi –> 5000 cfs• Lower Mississippi –> 5000 cfs

One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation

N-Factor ManagementN-Factor ManagementChecks Flow range RAS Time Window

Goes to Netmiss2 N-Factor Repository and Gathers n-factors based on the 30 factor limit

Places 30 Factors in model Plan File for Model execution and calibration

When n-Factors change in the model the changes are sent to the Netmiss2 n-Factor repository and the repository is updated

MODEL EXECUTION

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Hinge Point Check And Forecasting

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Hinge Point Analysis WindowHinge Point Analysis Window

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Open River BalancingOpen River Balancing

1. Approximate OR Level With Rating Curve – Model Computes L&D 24 Q

Q Q

2. Simulate Downstream Model Profile – Compute D/S TW Level

TW

TW

Swell Head

3. (TW + Drawdown) to find new Target L&D 24 Pool

PL

4. Use New Target Pool To Compute new Q

Q

PL

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O O

Open River and TW Balancing

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Forecast ReportForecast Report

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Forecast Report

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Current Status of NETMISS 2Current Status of NETMISS 2

Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on:• Hinge Point Levels• Tail Water Levels• Reach profiles/stages

On-going evaluation of NETMISS 2 versus current operational forecast model.

Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on:• Hinge Point Levels• Tail Water Levels• Reach profiles/stages

On-going evaluation of NETMISS 2 versus current operational forecast model.