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<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Practical Approach
The “What if?” of Credit RiskManagement!
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Mohammad Fheili “Over 30 years of Experience in Banking. [email protected] (961) 3 337175
Risk & Capacity Building Specialist. Trainer in Risk, Compliance, and Capacity Building. University Lecturer: Economics, Risk, and Banking
Operations Currently serves in the capacity of an Executive (AGM)
at JTB Bank in Lebanon. Served as:
• Senior Manager & Chief Risk Officer at GroupFransabank
• Senior Manager at BankMed• Talent Development Advisor at ABL• Economist at the Association of Banks in Lebanon
[ABL] Mohammad received his college education
(undergraduate & graduate) at Louisiana StateUniversity (LSU), and has been teaching Economics andFinance for over 25 continuous years at reputableuniversities in the USA (LSU) and Lebanon (LAU).
Finally, Mohammad published over 25 articles, of thosemany are in refereed Journals (e.g., Journal of MoneyLaundering & Control; Journal of Operational Risk;Journal of Law & Economics; etc.) and Bulletins.”
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Not Because The Picture Is PrettyIt Necessarily Bears No Danger!
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Credit is a “Daring Adventure”: LendingInvolves Taking a Walk on the Wild Side!
. . . and propercredit riskmanagement willhelp you getthere Safely!
To do so:
A bank must have inplace sound stress-testing processes . . .Stress-testing shouldinvolve identifyingpossible events orfuture changes ineconomic conditionsthat could haveunfavorable effects on abank’s credit exposuresand assessment of thebank’s ability towithstand suchchanges.
If you don’t properly understand your
environment, you will not be able to [safely]
take that walk!
If you don’t properly understand your
environment, you will not be able to [safely]
make that climb!
Thus the Importance of
Stress-Testing Credit Risk understanding your [Credit] Environment: Client, Industries, Portfolio, facilities, etc.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The Credit Life Cycle
Acquisition/ Credit
Specific Customer
Service
Collect And Review
Data
CreditReview
Assess Collateral And Risk
Document Approval
Sales Risk Analysis Processing
Establishing Contact
Evaluate first customer info
Customer Meetings
Debriefing
Request documents
Obtain data & information
Completeness/ plausibility review
Follow up
Review document
Follow up with Loan Officer / Account Manager
Standardized Credit Rating
Document on other credit related factors
Inspect Object
Determine Loan-to-value
Evaluate Exposure
Data is Sufficient
Complete Loan Application
Prepare Credit rate
Handover Credit File
Follow Up
Data is Complete
Approval by Decision Makers
Check Compliance with Authority Structure
Prepare Contracts
Get Signatures
Provide Security
Disbursement Review
Disbursement
Plan Ahead
Monitor & Report
Final Resolution of the FacilityCorrelations & Loan Portfolio
Considerations
Implement On the Credit
Decision
Probing to Learn More: Financial & Risk AnalysisA bank’s credit risk management efforts are incomplete if they do not includea comprehensive stress-testing program.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The Credit Life Cycle Can Be Summed Up AsFollows:
Risk Rating Pricing Stress Testing Concentration Capital Management Etc.
What these have in common isthat they are data-driven andinformation-rich
The absence of “Relevant,Accurate, Timely, Complete andeasily accessible Data” in the CreditLife Cycle will lead to (a) Ambiguity,Uncertainty, and Ignorance in theCredit Decision-Making Process.Credit Risk Management is a Data-Driven and Information-RichProcess.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Increasing Understanding of Outcomes
Incr
easi
ng E
vide
nce
on P
roba
bilit
y Risk
Uncertainty
Ambiguity
Ignorance
Consequences are increasingly uncertain
Likelihood is Increasingly Uncertain
What Credit Risk Management is allAbout
Stress-testing Must Be
Introduced As A Major Player In The Credit
Risk Management
Arena.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Data Warehouse
If Chaos is what you’ve put in; chaos is what you will get out!
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Stress Testing Credit Risk
Stress-Testing is a Process; it isnot a One-Time Stop!Stress-Testing Forces “Order”into your Credit ApprovalProcess!
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Recent history shows us that stressfulevents occur with higher frequency inemerging markets (i.e., in countries likeLebanon) as compared to developedfinancial markets because these marketsare not only susceptible to financial riskfactors, but also to sociological andpolitical factors.
Stress-Testing is a Must in Emerging Economies
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
A Flavor of Stress-Testing
What are some of the risk factorsassociated with an encounterwith any of these two animals?
What is the probability any ofthese risks materializes?
What are probable Losses giventhe risk?
How can I guard against this (i.e.,How can I be prepared so lossesdo not cripple me)?
The Idea is not to eliminate risk; itis instead to IDENTIFY,MEASURE, and MANAGE IT.
1
2
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Just Think! Banks may have diversified their loan portfolios by giving
loans to different industries/currencies etc. However,during a stressful event, all these industries may registerhigher likelihood of default, thus nullifying the objective ofDIVERSIFICATION.
To make matters worse, during stress events riskmanagers who want to unwind positions to reduce riskconcentrations, are unable to do so because of an abruptLACK OF LIQUIDITY in financial markets. The predicamentof loan portfolios is even worse because even in ordinarybusiness conditions these portfolios are relatively far lessliquid than market portfolios.
Most risk managers hedge their portfolios to alleviate risk.However, HEDGING instruments may be rendered invalidduring stress events because key assumptions built intotheir pricing models may cease to be applicable.
GLOBALIZATION and state-of-the-art technology havehelped to spread shocks rapidly across all markets! Speedof CONTAGION is yet another dimension of risk factors.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Critical Stops in Credit ApprovalProcess!
Acquisition/ Credit
Specific Customer
Service
Collect And Review
Data
CreditReview
Assess Collateral And Risk
Document Approval
Sales Risk Analysis ProcessingCredit Approval Process
Implement On the Credit
Decision
Collect Accurate Data: Quantitative (i.e., Financial), and Qualitative. As an RM, you need to always probe for more!
You analyze the data to secure normal and complete resolution of the facility. But, as a Credit [Risk] Analyst, you are fully aware of “Uncertainty” that produces default, losses, and causes harm if not managed well.
Default
Losses
Secure the PRIMARY Sources of Repayment –i.e., Cash Flow
Secure the SECONDARYSources of Repayment –i.e., Collateral
Harm
Secure Enough CUSHION against potential fall – i.e., Provision
Losses are Harmful if andonly if you don’t PROTECTyour bank against them!
The Answer is in Stress-Testing
Credit Risk
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Critical Stops in Credit ApprovalProcess! . . . Continues
Acquisition/ Credit
Specific Customer
Service
Collect And Review
Data
CreditReview
Assess Collateral And Risk
Document Approval
Sales Risk Analysis ProcessingCredit Approval Process
Implement On the Credit
Decision
Default
Losses
Harm
In the absence of enough cushion – i.e., Provision - there will surely be a harm
This is where youStress-Test yourCredit portfolio
Credit R
isk
> Failure to perform on Obligations> Ability to perform is Impaired
What Risk Factors may contribute to an increasing probability of default?
What Risk Factors may contribute to impairment?
The uncertainty of returns from a portfolio is directly or indirectlyinfluenced by numerous variables, which are called Risk Factors.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Stress-Testing Implies that the Past is notNecessarily a Good Predictor of the Future?
Economic/Political/Legal Environment
Industry
• People• System & Processes• Data• Market Share• Cost of Input• Etc.
Obligor
Banking Sector
• People• System & Processes• Data• Loanable Funds• Cost of Funds• Etc.
The Bank FutureThe Past
Since thingswill definitelybe different inthe future,stress-TestingCredit Risk isrelevant
The absence of Stress-Testing Credit Risk implies that the futureis assumed to be very similar to the past!
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Prepare Your Bank for the Future!
Is the current level of capital enough? Enough under whatcircumstances?
How practical it is to assume “all else stay the same”? What changes may take place in the bank’s economic,
legal, regulatory, political, etc environments? How these changes may affect the bank (Losses, Liquidity,
etc.)? What is the probability these changes may materialize? Will be bank be able to deal with these changes? What segment of the portfolio will sustain the worst
damage as a result? Does the bank have the capital necessary to survive the
crisis? What if the “Shock” persisted for a longer period? Will the bank need to use any of its existing capital to deal
with the crisis? Etc.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Stress-Testing in Action
One of the Credit Risk Manager’s primaryobjectives is to measure the influence of eachrisk factor on [the volatility of] returns on thebank’s lending activities. This is Stress-Testingin action. This will help directly or indirectly in:
[Future] Pricing Provisioning Capital Allocation Profit Management Portfolio MonitoringSimply, You Are Ready For The Worst!
Stress-Testing is the process ofdetermining the effect of a changeto a portfolio or sub-portfolio dueto extreme, but realistic events.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Your Credit Risk Function Should beLandscaped as follows:
Quantitative Evaluation
Qualitative Evaluation
Internal Rating
Financial Data MitigationMatrix
Probability ofDefault - PD
Loss GivenDefault - LGD
Exposure AtDefault - EAD
Correlation
Risk Components
CalculationOf Credit
RiskAmount
(MeasurementModel of
Credit Risk)
Stress Testing
ExpectedLoss (EL)
UnexpectedLoss (UL)(Single Asset
AndPortfolio)
< Internal Rating Systems >
< Quantification of Credit Risk >
Reporting toThe Board
PortfolioMonitoring
Provisioning
Pricing
ProfitManagement
CapitalAllocation
< Internal Use >
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The Very Basic in Stress TestingCredit Risk.
123456789
10
123456789
10
Borrower’sFinancial
Data
QuantitativeRatingModel
Borrower’sQualitativeInformation
Default
Probability of Default Per
Rating G
rade
Assessing Ratings Estimation of PD
Quantitative Evaluation Qualitative Evaluation
Initial Evaluation (tentative)
Final Rating
-------
Normal
Bankrupt
Needs attention
How to set the time horizon ofassessing the creditworthinessof borrowers in assigningratings: Point-In-Time (PIT) andThrough-The-Cycle (TTC)
Two-Tier Rating System: Obligorand Facility Ratings
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Qualitative Credit Risk Assessment is not aValid Excuse for not Stress-Testing
Qualitative credit risk assessment systems use thejudgment of Credit Officers to assess the creditworthiness of obligors. This is a mature discipline, but itwill not enable the bank to arrive to a numeric measure ofthe likelihood that an obligor will default.
Credit
Worthiness
Probability
of Default
Down
Up
With a well-experienced Credit Officer,qualitative systems give a clear Indication ofDirectional Change (and it may be accurate to acertain extent)
But No Indications of the Magnitude ofChange. Only when a numeric measure of PDis known, we can calculate the Credit Value atRisk
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Prepare Your Bank: Real ChallengesUnder Basel II
Risk Weights
PD
LGD
EAD
Correlations
StandardizedApproaches
IRB FoundationApproach
IRB AdvancedApproach
Credit RiskModels
6
Supervisor
Supervisor
Supervisor
No
More
Bank
Supervisor
Supervisor
No
More
Bank
Bank
Bank
--
Much More
Bank
Bank
Bank
--
gÉ Self RegulationYÜÉÅ Compliance
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The New Basel Accord & CreditStress-Testing
Under Pillar II, Banks are: Expected to perform rigorous,
forward-looking stress testing thatidentifies possible events orchanges in market conditions thatcould adversely impact the bank.
Required to have a routine, robustprocess for stress testing andscenario analysis to support itsmeasures of capital adequacy:
Establish events or environmentalchanges that could lead to adversedevelopment.
Identify the impact of such eventsgiven the current positions.
Determine the strategy and processesfor managing its portfolio given suchevents
Process should cover such events as:Economic or Industry downturns;market events; Increased illiquidity
Under Pillar II, Banks must be ableto show that:
Current Capital Levels aresufficient to resist a “range ofsevere but plausible” events.
Different approaches are utilized inthe measurements of the Bank’soverall capital.
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Types of Credit Stress Tests
Why Do Banks PerformCredit Stress-Tests?
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE
We’ve considered every potential risk except the risks of avoiding all risks.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Why Banks Perform Credit StressTests?
Identify Reaction Of Sectors To Certain (Extreme) Events Assess The Sensitivity Of Credit Factors And Approaches
To Certain (Extreme) Events To Ensure Appropriateness Identify “ Hidden” Correlations Within Portfolio Support Portfolio Allocation Decisions/Strategy Beyond
Normal Current Conditions Evaluate Potential Capital Requirements On Long-dated
Positions Under Possible Future Credit Environments Identify A Benchmark To Create Some Awareness Of The
Current Market Situation Etc.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Types of Credit Stress Tests
1. Sensitivity Analyses2. Scenario Analyses3. Historical Scenarios4. Hypothetical Scenarios5. Event-Driven6. Portfolio-Driven7. Macroeconomic Events8. Market Events9. Worst Case / Catastrophe
Events
Even the most sophisticatedanalyses are only as good as thescenarios upon which they arebased!
Constructing a good scenarioinvolves both (a) determining theoverall impact by adjusting a set ofvariables that can influence theoutput, (b) estimating the probabilityof occurrence.
A useful scenario is (a) realistic, (b)corresponds to the approach andportfolio of exposures, (c)informative and valuable to riskmanagement objectives
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
1- Sensitivity Analyses Involves the impact of a large movement on single factor or
parameter Used to assess the effectiveness of a potential [Hedging] strategy,
etc.2- Scenario Analyses Full representation of possible future situations to which the
portfolio may be subjected Involves simultaneous, extreme moves of a set of factors. Reflects individual effects and interactions between different risk
factors, assuming a certain cause for the combined adversemovements
Used to assess particular scenarios (e.g., current forecast, worst-case) to gain better understanding of current situation.
3- Historical Based on observed events from the past (actual events) Less subjective but may be irrelevant E.g., What if the July 2006 War comes back again?!?!
Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
4- Hypothetical Plausible events that are yet to be realized More relevant. Requires expert judgment and analysis – sometimes difficult to link
with underlying factors E.g., What if there is a devaluation of the Lebanese Lira?5- Event-Driven Scenarios Scenario is based solely on a specific event independent of the
portfolio characteristics Identify risk sources/events that cause changes in market Identify effects of these changes on the risk parameters.6- Portfolio-Driven Scenarios Scenario is directly linked to the portfolio Identify risk parameters changes that result in a portfolio change Identify events that cause the parameters to change May be drawn from expert analysis or quantitative techniques
Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
7- Macroeconomic Scenarios A shock to the entire economy that will affect industries to varying
degrees Occurs external to a firm and develops over time E.g., Unemployment, recession, inflation, etc.8- Market Scenarios A shock to the financial and capital markets May be historical or hypothetical E.g., Interest Rate, Stock Market performance, Credit spread, etc.9- Worst Case / Catastrophe Scenarios Event are exogenous to the markets or economy, though impact
arises through resulting changes Often are tied to specific characteristics of portfolio or exposures E.g., Terrorism, Regulations, etc.
Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Key Steps . . . Baby Steps!
Stress-Testing Fundamentals
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Flowchart for Building a Stress-Testing Program
Report Results Take Corrective Action,
if Required Re-Assess Relevance
of Stress-Tests to newEnvironment, Portfolio
Ensure Reliable D
ata
Survey Portfolio and the Environment
Identify Risk Factors
Construct Stress-Tests
Decide M
agnitude of Factor Shock
Does the bank possess quantitative
risk measurement systems?
Yes
No
Run Stress-Testsusing obligor andportfolio risk models
Re-estimate bottomline of obligors understressful conditions
The Infrastructure of Stress-Testing
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Stress-Testing: The Infrastructure
Ensure Reliable Data Survey Portfolio & Environment Identify Risk Factors Construct Stress-Tests Decide Magnitude of Factor Shock Run Stress-Tests Report Results Re-Assess Relevance of Stress-Tests
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Ensure Reliable Data One of the most important steps in credit stress-testing is to
ensure that the data being used in risk management isaccurate and timely.
Obligor and facility specific data, market data relating to therisk factors and risk analytics (processed data used tocalculate risk numbers) used by risk models, should beaccurate and available at the appropriate time (i.e.,Timeliness).
The bank should ensure that reliable data is being capturedfor all particulars of every credit exposure, such as theprincipal, amounts repaid, interest rates, fees, collateraldetails, etc.
The bank must be able to measure credit risk of eachexposure by means of a consistent rating system and/or anaccurate PD for each rating.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Survey the Portfolio: Stress-Test should be related to thespecific features of the bank’s credit portfolios: List all thefinancial instruments present in the portfolios, as well as alllikely future inclusions.
Survey Environment: Survey the social, industrial,economic and political environment to spot potential stressfulevents. Every effort must be made to identify as manyscenarios as possible.
Once a scenario has been identified, it must be translated intomovements in the risk factors that the obligor and portfoliomodels use to arrive at the PD and/or Credit Value at Risk.
Consult Widely: Risk Managers should involve otherexperts: Relationship Managers, Line Managers, Economists,etc.
Ordering Risk Factors: The Risk Manager must arrange therisk factors by their importance in influencing the fortunes ofthe portfolio.
Survey Portfolio/Environment; IdentifyImportant Risk Factors
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Types of Risk Factors
Deteriorationin abilityand/orwillingnessto pay.
EAD PD LGD
Industry Economic Political Financial
Market Regulatory Etc.
Assumptions Holding
Periods
Correlations Transition
Matrices Volatility Credit Spread
(Main risk factor affecting Swaps, Bonds: credit risk in the Trading Book)
Obligor Environmental Model Analytics
Main Types of Risk Factors
These Are The Factors That Will Be Included In The Credit Stress-Test
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The Probability of Change in a Credit Ratingover a Chosen Interval
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
D
“A” Rating Migrates to “BBB” Rating
19.79
4.07
64.8611.24
90.81 8.33
0.70
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.11
0.00
0.00 0.00
90.65
0.000.68
0.02
What is the probability and
under what circumstances
would that transition take place?
Existing Risk G
rade
The Risk Grade Obligor/Facility/Portfolio May Migrate To
If this “Migration in Rating”occurs, what is the Impact?
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Construct Stress-Tests There are essentially two types of stress-tests, Single-
Factor and Multi-Factor Stress-Tests. As the nameimplies, only one risk factor is stressed in single-factorstress-tests while several risk factors (if not all) arestressed in multi-factor stress-tests.
Single factor shocks are appropriate at the desk orfrontline level when a trader or a relationship managerwould like to know the effect of a large move in a riskfactor on his/her position.
When assessing a portfolio’s exposure to stress events,a single factor shock is rarely appropriate and wouldprobably suffer from implausibility because when astressful event occurs, seldom does it affect one factoralone.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Decide Magnitude of Factor Shocks
One approach to use the magnitude of shocks thatactually occurred during historical stress episodes,while another is to use subjective judgment (e.g.,using the bank’s expertise).
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Run Stress TestsQuantitative Systems Once scenarios have been
constructed and themagnitude of the shock onthe risk factors has beendecided, the stress-testsshould be run and theportfolios re-valued.
If the bank has quantitativeobligor and portfolio riskmanagement systems andmodels, the stress-testscan be run by inputting thestressed values of the riskfactors into the models.
Qualitative Systems In the first step they survey
the portfolio and alsoidentify likely stressevents.
Then the Credit Analysts ofthe bank go through thefinancial statements ofeach obligor and usingtheir judgment, estimatethe bottom line of eachobligor contingent on thestressful event occurring.
Once the new bottom lineof each obligor has beenestimated, the total stressloss that the bank is likelyto incur, given the stressfulevent, is calculated.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Report The Results
Once scenarios have been constructed and portfoliosre-valued, a brief summary of results showing details ofscenarios and likely losses for each stress scenarioshould be reported to appropriate managers for action.
The stress-tests that require action must show a highdegree of granularity so that problem loans / positions /portfolios / trading and hedging strategies, can beidentified and appropriate pre-agreed risk mitigatingactions taken.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Re-Assess Relevance of Stress Tests
Stress-tests must be systematically refreshed becausefinancial markets, instruments, regulatory policies andmacroeconomic and political environment are changingall the time.
Stress-tests should be reviewed at least yearly, or morefrequently, if the portfolio or the environment changessignificantly.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Other Key Steps
1. Segmenting the Portfolio2. Identifying Risk Factors to be Stressed3. Constructing the Stress Scenarios4. Translating Scenarios into Model Drivers5. Analyzing Outputs of Stress Analyses
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
1- Segmenting the Portfolio
Understand the specialfeatures that characterize eachsegment of the portfolio (e.g.,segment according to the typeof asset).
Create Scenarios for eachSegment
Ensure that the scenarios arerelevant to all portfolio entriesper segment
Make scenarios moreapplicable and effective
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
2- Identifying Risk Factors to beStressed Exhaustive list of all the risk
factors that influence eachsegment of the portfolio shouldbe prepared.
Once the risk factors influencingeach category have beenidentified, they should be orderedby importance and grouped onthe basis of similarity.
When stress tests are designed,such groups will ensure thatwhen individual risk factors areshocked, other relevant stressfactors are not left un-stressed.
Risk factors may appear inmore than one segment or canbe uniquely identified assector-specific
Identifying these factors is akey challenge, as it effectivelydetermines the performance ofthe stress test.
The process of ordering andgrouping risk factors helps toensure that the most importantrisk factors, as well as thoserelated to them, are stressed.
E.g., Oil prices; revenues perunit; tourism; political events;war; growth in GDP; ExchangeRate; Interest Rates; Demand;etc.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
3- Constructing The Stress Scenarios
After completing the selectionprocess of risk factors, the nextstep is to construct the actualstress scenarios, whichrequires:
Researching prior situations andindustry trends
Determining appropriate andrealistic events
Evaluating which drivers areaffected under the event
Prioritizing amongst thenumerous scenarios possible
Use Bottom-Up Analysis: General Macroeconomic
Analysis Industry Specific Trends Company Specific Trends E.g., Sensitivity to oil prices;
Scenarios for flu pandemic
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
4- Translating Scenarios into ModelDrivers
Scenarios must be translated into the model drivers Requires a determination of the impact of each
scenario on each component within the model(Quantitative or Qualitative)
Impact should be parameterized as best as possibleto ensure that the event is accurately represented inthe “Stressed” output.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
5- Analyzing Outputs of StressAnalyses
The stress event is applied to the portfolio to determine“Stressed” outputs (Effect on Ratings, Probability of Default,Loss-Given Default, etc.)
Analysis of the outputs requires: Compare with the original figures Conclude if the model reacted reasonably to the adverse
economic trends Identify limitations Look for credit sense
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Elements of a Good Stress-Testing Program
Make It Acceptable, Popular, And MakeSure It Is An Integral Part Of Your CreditRisk Practices.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
The Features of a Good Stress-Testing Program A stress-test should measure
the effect of only large moves inrisk factors. Small moves oftenfalls under “Accepted Risks”.
A stress-test must be closelytied to the assets in the portfolioas well as to prevailingeconomic and politicalconditions.
A stress-test must probe forportfolio-specific weaknesses.
To improve upon theappropriateness and plausibilityof the stress tests, RiskManagers must seek opinionsfrom experts, including front-linemanagers, economists, etc.
Comprehensive stress-testingprograms should includescenarios that stress allsignificant factors at the sametime (if possible).
Top management should haveactive knowledge of, and wherepossible, involvement indesigning stress-tests, stresslimits and in drawing up plansfor remedial action; only thencan the risk managementfunction be sure ofimplementing its remedialactions.
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
It is better to report only a fewstress-test results becausefewer results make for easydigestion and prompt action.
Of the stress-tests reported, atleast a few must be of teststhat are regularly conducted,so as to allow management tounderstand the changing riskprofile of the portfolio.
Each stress-test should beaccompanied by a clear set ofpre-agreed plans of remedialaction. Such actions will bepossible only if stress-testresults are granular enough topinpoint the causes of thestress losses.
Stress-tests should also beupdated regularly becausenew financial instruments arebeing introduced all the time.
Regulatory changes as well asmacroeconomic policydecisions may change theassumptions that lie behindexisting stress-tests.
The objectives, procedures,authorities, responsibilitiesand all other aspects of thestress-testing program shouldbe drafted as a policy paperand authorized at the highestlevels of the bank, so that thestress-testing program isinstitutionalized.
The Features of a Good Stress-Testing Program
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
In ClosingChallenges & ClosingRemarks
Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili
Challenges perceived at thefundamental level Sourcing appropriate information and actual impact on
factors under historic scenarios Designing scenarios at the appropriate sector level Capturing the correlation between factors within the ratings
methodology – in both expert judgment and quantitativemodel approaches
Given the estimation/rating approach, the impact of ascenario may not be captured adequately.
Distinguishing between the impact from stress event itselfand the approach used to evaluate the creditworthiness
Complexity of the client base and the relative ease ofrepresenting the scenarios onto a firm
Ability to access data from underlying drivers acrossportfolio
Bottom analyses are difficult to aggregate.
<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660
Comments!
Questions?