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My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

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<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660 Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Practical Approach The “What if?” of Credit Risk Management!
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Page 1: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Practical Approach

The “What if?” of Credit RiskManagement!

Page 2: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Mohammad Fheili “Over 30 years of Experience in Banking. [email protected] (961) 3 337175

Risk & Capacity Building Specialist. Trainer in Risk, Compliance, and Capacity Building. University Lecturer: Economics, Risk, and Banking

Operations Currently serves in the capacity of an Executive (AGM)

at JTB Bank in Lebanon. Served as:

• Senior Manager & Chief Risk Officer at GroupFransabank

• Senior Manager at BankMed• Talent Development Advisor at ABL• Economist at the Association of Banks in Lebanon

[ABL] Mohammad received his college education

(undergraduate & graduate) at Louisiana StateUniversity (LSU), and has been teaching Economics andFinance for over 25 continuous years at reputableuniversities in the USA (LSU) and Lebanon (LAU).

Finally, Mohammad published over 25 articles, of thosemany are in refereed Journals (e.g., Journal of MoneyLaundering & Control; Journal of Operational Risk;Journal of Law & Economics; etc.) and Bulletins.”

Page 3: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Not Because The Picture Is PrettyIt Necessarily Bears No Danger!

Page 4: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Credit is a “Daring Adventure”: LendingInvolves Taking a Walk on the Wild Side!

. . . and propercredit riskmanagement willhelp you getthere Safely!

To do so:

A bank must have inplace sound stress-testing processes . . .Stress-testing shouldinvolve identifyingpossible events orfuture changes ineconomic conditionsthat could haveunfavorable effects on abank’s credit exposuresand assessment of thebank’s ability towithstand suchchanges.

If you don’t properly understand your

environment, you will not be able to [safely]

take that walk!

If you don’t properly understand your

environment, you will not be able to [safely]

make that climb!

Thus the Importance of

Stress-Testing Credit Risk understanding your [Credit] Environment: Client, Industries, Portfolio, facilities, etc.

Page 5: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The Credit Life Cycle

Acquisition/ Credit

Specific Customer

Service

Collect And Review

Data

CreditReview

Assess Collateral And Risk

Document Approval

Sales Risk Analysis Processing

Establishing Contact

Evaluate first customer info

Customer Meetings

Debriefing

Request documents

Obtain data & information

Completeness/ plausibility review

Follow up

Review document

Follow up with Loan Officer / Account Manager

Standardized Credit Rating

Document on other credit related factors

Inspect Object

Determine Loan-to-value

Evaluate Exposure

Data is Sufficient

Complete Loan Application

Prepare Credit rate

Handover Credit File

Follow Up

Data is Complete

Approval by Decision Makers

Check Compliance with Authority Structure

Prepare Contracts

Get Signatures

Provide Security

Disbursement Review

Disbursement

Plan Ahead

Monitor & Report

Final Resolution of the FacilityCorrelations & Loan Portfolio

Considerations

Implement On the Credit

Decision

Probing to Learn More: Financial & Risk AnalysisA bank’s credit risk management efforts are incomplete if they do not includea comprehensive stress-testing program.

Page 6: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The Credit Life Cycle Can Be Summed Up AsFollows:

Risk Rating Pricing Stress Testing Concentration Capital Management Etc.

What these have in common isthat they are data-driven andinformation-rich

The absence of “Relevant,Accurate, Timely, Complete andeasily accessible Data” in the CreditLife Cycle will lead to (a) Ambiguity,Uncertainty, and Ignorance in theCredit Decision-Making Process.Credit Risk Management is a Data-Driven and Information-RichProcess.

Page 7: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Increasing Understanding of Outcomes

Incr

easi

ng E

vide

nce

on P

roba

bilit

y Risk

Uncertainty

Ambiguity

Ignorance

Consequences are increasingly uncertain

Likelihood is Increasingly Uncertain

What Credit Risk Management is allAbout

Stress-testing Must Be

Introduced As A Major Player In The Credit

Risk Management

Arena.

Page 8: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Data Warehouse

If Chaos is what you’ve put in; chaos is what you will get out!

Page 9: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

Stress Testing Credit Risk

Stress-Testing is a Process; it isnot a One-Time Stop!Stress-Testing Forces “Order”into your Credit ApprovalProcess!

Page 10: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Recent history shows us that stressfulevents occur with higher frequency inemerging markets (i.e., in countries likeLebanon) as compared to developedfinancial markets because these marketsare not only susceptible to financial riskfactors, but also to sociological andpolitical factors.

Stress-Testing is a Must in Emerging Economies

Page 11: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

A Flavor of Stress-Testing

What are some of the risk factorsassociated with an encounterwith any of these two animals?

What is the probability any ofthese risks materializes?

What are probable Losses giventhe risk?

How can I guard against this (i.e.,How can I be prepared so lossesdo not cripple me)?

The Idea is not to eliminate risk; itis instead to IDENTIFY,MEASURE, and MANAGE IT.

1

2

Page 12: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Just Think! Banks may have diversified their loan portfolios by giving

loans to different industries/currencies etc. However,during a stressful event, all these industries may registerhigher likelihood of default, thus nullifying the objective ofDIVERSIFICATION.

To make matters worse, during stress events riskmanagers who want to unwind positions to reduce riskconcentrations, are unable to do so because of an abruptLACK OF LIQUIDITY in financial markets. The predicamentof loan portfolios is even worse because even in ordinarybusiness conditions these portfolios are relatively far lessliquid than market portfolios.

Most risk managers hedge their portfolios to alleviate risk.However, HEDGING instruments may be rendered invalidduring stress events because key assumptions built intotheir pricing models may cease to be applicable.

GLOBALIZATION and state-of-the-art technology havehelped to spread shocks rapidly across all markets! Speedof CONTAGION is yet another dimension of risk factors.

Page 13: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Critical Stops in Credit ApprovalProcess!

Acquisition/ Credit

Specific Customer

Service

Collect And Review

Data

CreditReview

Assess Collateral And Risk

Document Approval

Sales Risk Analysis ProcessingCredit Approval Process

Implement On the Credit

Decision

Collect Accurate Data: Quantitative (i.e., Financial), and Qualitative. As an RM, you need to always probe for more!

You analyze the data to secure normal and complete resolution of the facility. But, as a Credit [Risk] Analyst, you are fully aware of “Uncertainty” that produces default, losses, and causes harm if not managed well.

Default

Losses

Secure the PRIMARY Sources of Repayment –i.e., Cash Flow

Secure the SECONDARYSources of Repayment –i.e., Collateral

Harm

Secure Enough CUSHION against potential fall – i.e., Provision

Losses are Harmful if andonly if you don’t PROTECTyour bank against them!

The Answer is in Stress-Testing

Credit Risk

Page 14: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Critical Stops in Credit ApprovalProcess! . . . Continues

Acquisition/ Credit

Specific Customer

Service

Collect And Review

Data

CreditReview

Assess Collateral And Risk

Document Approval

Sales Risk Analysis ProcessingCredit Approval Process

Implement On the Credit

Decision

Default

Losses

Harm

In the absence of enough cushion – i.e., Provision - there will surely be a harm

This is where youStress-Test yourCredit portfolio

Credit R

isk

> Failure to perform on Obligations> Ability to perform is Impaired

What Risk Factors may contribute to an increasing probability of default?

What Risk Factors may contribute to impairment?

The uncertainty of returns from a portfolio is directly or indirectlyinfluenced by numerous variables, which are called Risk Factors.

Page 15: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Stress-Testing Implies that the Past is notNecessarily a Good Predictor of the Future?

Economic/Political/Legal Environment

Industry

• People• System & Processes• Data• Market Share• Cost of Input• Etc.

Obligor

Banking Sector

• People• System & Processes• Data• Loanable Funds• Cost of Funds• Etc.

The Bank FutureThe Past

Since thingswill definitelybe different inthe future,stress-TestingCredit Risk isrelevant

The absence of Stress-Testing Credit Risk implies that the futureis assumed to be very similar to the past!

Page 16: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Prepare Your Bank for the Future!

Is the current level of capital enough? Enough under whatcircumstances?

How practical it is to assume “all else stay the same”? What changes may take place in the bank’s economic,

legal, regulatory, political, etc environments? How these changes may affect the bank (Losses, Liquidity,

etc.)? What is the probability these changes may materialize? Will be bank be able to deal with these changes? What segment of the portfolio will sustain the worst

damage as a result? Does the bank have the capital necessary to survive the

crisis? What if the “Shock” persisted for a longer period? Will the bank need to use any of its existing capital to deal

with the crisis? Etc.

Page 17: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Stress-Testing in Action

One of the Credit Risk Manager’s primaryobjectives is to measure the influence of eachrisk factor on [the volatility of] returns on thebank’s lending activities. This is Stress-Testingin action. This will help directly or indirectly in:

[Future] Pricing Provisioning Capital Allocation Profit Management Portfolio MonitoringSimply, You Are Ready For The Worst!

Stress-Testing is the process ofdetermining the effect of a changeto a portfolio or sub-portfolio dueto extreme, but realistic events.

Page 18: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Your Credit Risk Function Should beLandscaped as follows:

Quantitative Evaluation

Qualitative Evaluation

Internal Rating

Financial Data MitigationMatrix

Probability ofDefault - PD

Loss GivenDefault - LGD

Exposure AtDefault - EAD

Correlation

Risk Components

CalculationOf Credit

RiskAmount

(MeasurementModel of

Credit Risk)

Stress Testing

ExpectedLoss (EL)

UnexpectedLoss (UL)(Single Asset

AndPortfolio)

< Internal Rating Systems >

< Quantification of Credit Risk >

Reporting toThe Board

PortfolioMonitoring

Provisioning

Pricing

ProfitManagement

CapitalAllocation

< Internal Use >

Page 19: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The Very Basic in Stress TestingCredit Risk.

123456789

10

123456789

10

Borrower’sFinancial

Data

QuantitativeRatingModel

Borrower’sQualitativeInformation

Default

Probability of Default Per

Rating G

rade

Assessing Ratings Estimation of PD

Quantitative Evaluation Qualitative Evaluation

Initial Evaluation (tentative)

Final Rating

-------

Normal

Bankrupt

Needs attention

How to set the time horizon ofassessing the creditworthinessof borrowers in assigningratings: Point-In-Time (PIT) andThrough-The-Cycle (TTC)

Two-Tier Rating System: Obligorand Facility Ratings

Page 20: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Qualitative Credit Risk Assessment is not aValid Excuse for not Stress-Testing

Qualitative credit risk assessment systems use thejudgment of Credit Officers to assess the creditworthiness of obligors. This is a mature discipline, but itwill not enable the bank to arrive to a numeric measure ofthe likelihood that an obligor will default.

Credit

Worthiness

Probability

of Default

Down

Up

With a well-experienced Credit Officer,qualitative systems give a clear Indication ofDirectional Change (and it may be accurate to acertain extent)

But No Indications of the Magnitude ofChange. Only when a numeric measure of PDis known, we can calculate the Credit Value atRisk

Page 21: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Prepare Your Bank: Real ChallengesUnder Basel II

Risk Weights

PD

LGD

EAD

Correlations

StandardizedApproaches

IRB FoundationApproach

IRB AdvancedApproach

Credit RiskModels

6

Supervisor

Supervisor

Supervisor

No

More

Bank

Supervisor

Supervisor

No

More

Bank

Bank

Bank

--

Much More

Bank

Bank

Bank

--

gÉ Self RegulationYÜÉÅ Compliance

Page 22: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The New Basel Accord & CreditStress-Testing

Under Pillar II, Banks are: Expected to perform rigorous,

forward-looking stress testing thatidentifies possible events orchanges in market conditions thatcould adversely impact the bank.

Required to have a routine, robustprocess for stress testing andscenario analysis to support itsmeasures of capital adequacy:

Establish events or environmentalchanges that could lead to adversedevelopment.

Identify the impact of such eventsgiven the current positions.

Determine the strategy and processesfor managing its portfolio given suchevents

Process should cover such events as:Economic or Industry downturns;market events; Increased illiquidity

Under Pillar II, Banks must be ableto show that:

Current Capital Levels aresufficient to resist a “range ofsevere but plausible” events.

Different approaches are utilized inthe measurements of the Bank’soverall capital.

Page 23: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

Types of Credit Stress Tests

Why Do Banks PerformCredit Stress-Tests?

Page 24: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE

We’ve considered every potential risk except the risks of avoiding all risks.

Page 25: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Why Banks Perform Credit StressTests?

Identify Reaction Of Sectors To Certain (Extreme) Events Assess The Sensitivity Of Credit Factors And Approaches

To Certain (Extreme) Events To Ensure Appropriateness Identify “ Hidden” Correlations Within Portfolio Support Portfolio Allocation Decisions/Strategy Beyond

Normal Current Conditions Evaluate Potential Capital Requirements On Long-dated

Positions Under Possible Future Credit Environments Identify A Benchmark To Create Some Awareness Of The

Current Market Situation Etc.

Page 26: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Types of Credit Stress Tests

1. Sensitivity Analyses2. Scenario Analyses3. Historical Scenarios4. Hypothetical Scenarios5. Event-Driven6. Portfolio-Driven7. Macroeconomic Events8. Market Events9. Worst Case / Catastrophe

Events

Even the most sophisticatedanalyses are only as good as thescenarios upon which they arebased!

Constructing a good scenarioinvolves both (a) determining theoverall impact by adjusting a set ofvariables that can influence theoutput, (b) estimating the probabilityof occurrence.

A useful scenario is (a) realistic, (b)corresponds to the approach andportfolio of exposures, (c)informative and valuable to riskmanagement objectives

Page 27: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

1- Sensitivity Analyses Involves the impact of a large movement on single factor or

parameter Used to assess the effectiveness of a potential [Hedging] strategy,

etc.2- Scenario Analyses Full representation of possible future situations to which the

portfolio may be subjected Involves simultaneous, extreme moves of a set of factors. Reflects individual effects and interactions between different risk

factors, assuming a certain cause for the combined adversemovements

Used to assess particular scenarios (e.g., current forecast, worst-case) to gain better understanding of current situation.

3- Historical Based on observed events from the past (actual events) Less subjective but may be irrelevant E.g., What if the July 2006 War comes back again?!?!

Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues

Page 28: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

4- Hypothetical Plausible events that are yet to be realized More relevant. Requires expert judgment and analysis – sometimes difficult to link

with underlying factors E.g., What if there is a devaluation of the Lebanese Lira?5- Event-Driven Scenarios Scenario is based solely on a specific event independent of the

portfolio characteristics Identify risk sources/events that cause changes in market Identify effects of these changes on the risk parameters.6- Portfolio-Driven Scenarios Scenario is directly linked to the portfolio Identify risk parameters changes that result in a portfolio change Identify events that cause the parameters to change May be drawn from expert analysis or quantitative techniques

Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues

Page 29: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

7- Macroeconomic Scenarios A shock to the entire economy that will affect industries to varying

degrees Occurs external to a firm and develops over time E.g., Unemployment, recession, inflation, etc.8- Market Scenarios A shock to the financial and capital markets May be historical or hypothetical E.g., Interest Rate, Stock Market performance, Credit spread, etc.9- Worst Case / Catastrophe Scenarios Event are exogenous to the markets or economy, though impact

arises through resulting changes Often are tied to specific characteristics of portfolio or exposures E.g., Terrorism, Regulations, etc.

Types of Credit Stress Tests . . . Continues

Page 30: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

Key Steps . . . Baby Steps!

Stress-Testing Fundamentals

Page 31: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Page 32: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Flowchart for Building a Stress-Testing Program

Report Results Take Corrective Action,

if Required Re-Assess Relevance

of Stress-Tests to newEnvironment, Portfolio

Ensure Reliable D

ata

Survey Portfolio and the Environment

Identify Risk Factors

Construct Stress-Tests

Decide M

agnitude of Factor Shock

Does the bank possess quantitative

risk measurement systems?

Yes

No

Run Stress-Testsusing obligor andportfolio risk models

Re-estimate bottomline of obligors understressful conditions

The Infrastructure of Stress-Testing

Page 33: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Stress-Testing: The Infrastructure

Ensure Reliable Data Survey Portfolio & Environment Identify Risk Factors Construct Stress-Tests Decide Magnitude of Factor Shock Run Stress-Tests Report Results Re-Assess Relevance of Stress-Tests

Page 34: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Ensure Reliable Data One of the most important steps in credit stress-testing is to

ensure that the data being used in risk management isaccurate and timely.

Obligor and facility specific data, market data relating to therisk factors and risk analytics (processed data used tocalculate risk numbers) used by risk models, should beaccurate and available at the appropriate time (i.e.,Timeliness).

The bank should ensure that reliable data is being capturedfor all particulars of every credit exposure, such as theprincipal, amounts repaid, interest rates, fees, collateraldetails, etc.

The bank must be able to measure credit risk of eachexposure by means of a consistent rating system and/or anaccurate PD for each rating.

Page 35: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Survey the Portfolio: Stress-Test should be related to thespecific features of the bank’s credit portfolios: List all thefinancial instruments present in the portfolios, as well as alllikely future inclusions.

Survey Environment: Survey the social, industrial,economic and political environment to spot potential stressfulevents. Every effort must be made to identify as manyscenarios as possible.

Once a scenario has been identified, it must be translated intomovements in the risk factors that the obligor and portfoliomodels use to arrive at the PD and/or Credit Value at Risk.

Consult Widely: Risk Managers should involve otherexperts: Relationship Managers, Line Managers, Economists,etc.

Ordering Risk Factors: The Risk Manager must arrange therisk factors by their importance in influencing the fortunes ofthe portfolio.

Survey Portfolio/Environment; IdentifyImportant Risk Factors

Page 36: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Types of Risk Factors

Deteriorationin abilityand/orwillingnessto pay.

EAD PD LGD

Industry Economic Political Financial

Market Regulatory Etc.

Assumptions Holding

Periods

Correlations Transition

Matrices Volatility Credit Spread

(Main risk factor affecting Swaps, Bonds: credit risk in the Trading Book)

Obligor Environmental Model Analytics

Main Types of Risk Factors

These Are The Factors That Will Be Included In The Credit Stress-Test

Page 37: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The Probability of Change in a Credit Ratingover a Chosen Interval

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC D

AAA

AA

A

BBB

BB

B

CCC

D

“A” Rating Migrates to “BBB” Rating

19.79

4.07

64.8611.24

90.81 8.33

0.70

0.03

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.14

0.11

0.00

0.00 0.00

90.65

0.000.68

0.02

What is the probability and

under what circumstances

would that transition take place?

Existing Risk G

rade

The Risk Grade Obligor/Facility/Portfolio May Migrate To

If this “Migration in Rating”occurs, what is the Impact?

Page 38: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Construct Stress-Tests There are essentially two types of stress-tests, Single-

Factor and Multi-Factor Stress-Tests. As the nameimplies, only one risk factor is stressed in single-factorstress-tests while several risk factors (if not all) arestressed in multi-factor stress-tests.

Single factor shocks are appropriate at the desk orfrontline level when a trader or a relationship managerwould like to know the effect of a large move in a riskfactor on his/her position.

When assessing a portfolio’s exposure to stress events,a single factor shock is rarely appropriate and wouldprobably suffer from implausibility because when astressful event occurs, seldom does it affect one factoralone.

Page 39: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Decide Magnitude of Factor Shocks

One approach to use the magnitude of shocks thatactually occurred during historical stress episodes,while another is to use subjective judgment (e.g.,using the bank’s expertise).

Page 40: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Run Stress TestsQuantitative Systems Once scenarios have been

constructed and themagnitude of the shock onthe risk factors has beendecided, the stress-testsshould be run and theportfolios re-valued.

If the bank has quantitativeobligor and portfolio riskmanagement systems andmodels, the stress-testscan be run by inputting thestressed values of the riskfactors into the models.

Qualitative Systems In the first step they survey

the portfolio and alsoidentify likely stressevents.

Then the Credit Analysts ofthe bank go through thefinancial statements ofeach obligor and usingtheir judgment, estimatethe bottom line of eachobligor contingent on thestressful event occurring.

Once the new bottom lineof each obligor has beenestimated, the total stressloss that the bank is likelyto incur, given the stressfulevent, is calculated.

Page 41: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Report The Results

Once scenarios have been constructed and portfoliosre-valued, a brief summary of results showing details ofscenarios and likely losses for each stress scenarioshould be reported to appropriate managers for action.

The stress-tests that require action must show a highdegree of granularity so that problem loans / positions /portfolios / trading and hedging strategies, can beidentified and appropriate pre-agreed risk mitigatingactions taken.

Page 42: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Re-Assess Relevance of Stress Tests

Stress-tests must be systematically refreshed becausefinancial markets, instruments, regulatory policies andmacroeconomic and political environment are changingall the time.

Stress-tests should be reviewed at least yearly, or morefrequently, if the portfolio or the environment changessignificantly.

Page 43: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Other Key Steps

1. Segmenting the Portfolio2. Identifying Risk Factors to be Stressed3. Constructing the Stress Scenarios4. Translating Scenarios into Model Drivers5. Analyzing Outputs of Stress Analyses

Page 44: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

1- Segmenting the Portfolio

Understand the specialfeatures that characterize eachsegment of the portfolio (e.g.,segment according to the typeof asset).

Create Scenarios for eachSegment

Ensure that the scenarios arerelevant to all portfolio entriesper segment

Make scenarios moreapplicable and effective

Page 45: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

2- Identifying Risk Factors to beStressed Exhaustive list of all the risk

factors that influence eachsegment of the portfolio shouldbe prepared.

Once the risk factors influencingeach category have beenidentified, they should be orderedby importance and grouped onthe basis of similarity.

When stress tests are designed,such groups will ensure thatwhen individual risk factors areshocked, other relevant stressfactors are not left un-stressed.

Risk factors may appear inmore than one segment or canbe uniquely identified assector-specific

Identifying these factors is akey challenge, as it effectivelydetermines the performance ofthe stress test.

The process of ordering andgrouping risk factors helps toensure that the most importantrisk factors, as well as thoserelated to them, are stressed.

E.g., Oil prices; revenues perunit; tourism; political events;war; growth in GDP; ExchangeRate; Interest Rates; Demand;etc.

Page 46: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

3- Constructing The Stress Scenarios

After completing the selectionprocess of risk factors, the nextstep is to construct the actualstress scenarios, whichrequires:

Researching prior situations andindustry trends

Determining appropriate andrealistic events

Evaluating which drivers areaffected under the event

Prioritizing amongst thenumerous scenarios possible

Use Bottom-Up Analysis: General Macroeconomic

Analysis Industry Specific Trends Company Specific Trends E.g., Sensitivity to oil prices;

Scenarios for flu pandemic

Page 47: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

4- Translating Scenarios into ModelDrivers

Scenarios must be translated into the model drivers Requires a determination of the impact of each

scenario on each component within the model(Quantitative or Qualitative)

Impact should be parameterized as best as possibleto ensure that the event is accurately represented inthe “Stressed” output.

Page 48: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

5- Analyzing Outputs of StressAnalyses

The stress event is applied to the portfolio to determine“Stressed” outputs (Effect on Ratings, Probability of Default,Loss-Given Default, etc.)

Analysis of the outputs requires: Compare with the original figures Conclude if the model reacted reasonably to the adverse

economic trends Identify limitations Look for credit sense

Page 49: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

Elements of a Good Stress-Testing Program

Make It Acceptable, Popular, And MakeSure It Is An Integral Part Of Your CreditRisk Practices.

Page 50: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Page 51: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

The Features of a Good Stress-Testing Program A stress-test should measure

the effect of only large moves inrisk factors. Small moves oftenfalls under “Accepted Risks”.

A stress-test must be closelytied to the assets in the portfolioas well as to prevailingeconomic and politicalconditions.

A stress-test must probe forportfolio-specific weaknesses.

To improve upon theappropriateness and plausibilityof the stress tests, RiskManagers must seek opinionsfrom experts, including front-linemanagers, economists, etc.

Comprehensive stress-testingprograms should includescenarios that stress allsignificant factors at the sametime (if possible).

Top management should haveactive knowledge of, and wherepossible, involvement indesigning stress-tests, stresslimits and in drawing up plansfor remedial action; only thencan the risk managementfunction be sure ofimplementing its remedialactions.

Page 52: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

It is better to report only a fewstress-test results becausefewer results make for easydigestion and prompt action.

Of the stress-tests reported, atleast a few must be of teststhat are regularly conducted,so as to allow management tounderstand the changing riskprofile of the portfolio.

Each stress-test should beaccompanied by a clear set ofpre-agreed plans of remedialaction. Such actions will bepossible only if stress-testresults are granular enough topinpoint the causes of thestress losses.

Stress-tests should also beupdated regularly becausenew financial instruments arebeing introduced all the time.

Regulatory changes as well asmacroeconomic policydecisions may change theassumptions that lie behindexisting stress-tests.

The objectives, procedures,authorities, responsibilitiesand all other aspects of thestress-testing program shouldbe drafted as a policy paperand authorized at the highestlevels of the bank, so that thestress-testing program isinstitutionalized.

The Features of a Good Stress-Testing Program

Page 53: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

In ClosingChallenges & ClosingRemarks

Page 54: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

Organizational Planning & Development SpecialistMohammad I. Fheili

Challenges perceived at thefundamental level Sourcing appropriate information and actual impact on

factors under historic scenarios Designing scenarios at the appropriate sector level Capturing the correlation between factors within the ratings

methodology – in both expert judgment and quantitativemodel approaches

Given the estimation/rating approach, the impact of ascenario may not be captured adequately.

Distinguishing between the impact from stress event itselfand the approach used to evaluate the creditworthiness

Complexity of the client base and the relative ease ofrepresenting the scenarios onto a firm

Ability to access data from underlying drivers acrossportfolio

Bottom analyses are difficult to aggregate.

Page 55: My 1999 stress testing of credit risk

<<[email protected]>> <<[email protected]>> Lebanon (961) 3 337175 or 71 585660

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