Date post: | 09-May-2015 |
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Economy & Finance |
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KCM Divided into Three Sections
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Pending Home Sales
NAR 6/2013
100 = Historically Healthy Level
80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
January 2012 – December 2012
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 6/2013
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
ProjectedActual
Home Salesin thousands
NAR 6/2013
Median Region $0-100K$100-250K
$250-500K
$500-750K
$750K-1M $1M+
$269,600 Northeast -2.7% 3.8% 17.6% 23.9% 36.3% 24.8%
$159,800 Midwest 1.5% 19.7% 35.7% 36.2% 53.8% 48%
$183,300 South -6.3% 23.2% 36.5% 34.2% 40.6% 24.9%
$276,400 West -47% .5% 23.6% 38.1% 63.9% 49.8%
$208,000 U.S. -9.3% 14.3% 28.2% 32.8% 49.8% 36.9%
Year-Over-Year Sales by Price Point
WEST MIDWEST
SOUTH
NORTHEAST
NAR 6/2013
Median Days on Market by Type
NAR, RCI Survey 6/2013
Be Able to Address the Issue of a Possible Bubble in Housing
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Last 12 Months Since Peak
Price Changes as per Case Shiller
Case Chiller
“Inventories of existing homes are as low as they were in 2000. New-home inventories have barely budged from a 50-year low. As a consequence, there are only 5 months of inventory for existing homes and 4 months for new homes, compared with 6 months when market conditions are normal…
Moreover, housing is at least fairly valued, if not undervalued. The boom and bust in housing left house price gains far behind income and rent gains.”
Celia ChenSenior Director of the Moody's Analytics Research Staff
Moody’s Economy
Are Properties Overvalued?
28%26%
0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Income Rent House Prices
Gains as Measured Between the First Quarters of 2004 and 2013
Moody’s Economy
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/us-house-prices
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Mortgage Rate ProjectionsMortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.6%
Fannie Mae 4.6%
National Assoc of Realtors 4.8%
Freddie Mac 4.6%
7/2013
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
1/2012 – 7/2013
Federal Reserve 7/2013
Date PriceInterest
RateP&I
Last Year $200,000 3.5% $898.09
This Year $220,000 4.5% $1,114.71
Difference in Payment - $216.62
The Cost of Waiting a Year
Over 12 Months - $2,599.44
Over 30 Year Mortgage - $77,983.20
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Recent Rate Movement
3
3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
1/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27Rate 3.34 3.4 3.38 3.42 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.56 3.51 3.52 3.63 3.53 3.57 3.54 3.43 3.41 3.4 3.35 3.42 3.51 3.59 3.81 3.91 3.98 4.1 4.6
“I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5% mortgage rate.” Doug Duncan Chief Economist for Fannie Mae
Inman News
"As the economy continues to improve, we expect to see continued upward movement in long-term interest rates… At today’s house prices and income levels, mortgage rates would have to be nearly 7 percent before the U.S. median priced home would be unaffordable to a family making the median income in most parts of the country.” Frank NothaftFreddie Mac VP and Chief Economist
Freddie Mac
Rate $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86
5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95
5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02
5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11
4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24
4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43
Mortgage Amount
NAR 6/2013
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
18%
Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey 6/2013
43.8%
36%
20.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Current Homeowners First Time Buyers Investors
Breakdown of Today’s Purchasers
WSJ 6/2013
Agents Who Specialize…in a small geographic area compared to agents who list homes in a large area:
1.Were 4% more likely to sell the home2.Sell homes for 1.21% more3.Sell homes above the median price for 1.71% more4.Sell the home in 5.5 fewer days
Return on Investment
37.1
16
-12.8
52.4
-30
0
30
60
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – July 2013
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
NAR 6/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
S&P Case Shiller 6/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
-3.9%-3.5%
-2.5%-1.7%
-0.5%
0.6%1.1%
2.0%
3.6%4.3%
5.5%
6.8%
8.1%
9.3%10.2%
12.1%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 6/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 20.8%
Boston 8.1%
Charlotte 7.3%
Chicago 9.3%
Cleveland 4.8%
Dallas 7.4%
Denver 9.9%
Detroit 19.8%
Las Vegas 22.3%
Los Angeles 18.8%
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Miami 13.0%
Minneapolis 14.8%
New York 3.2%
Phoenix 21.5%
Portland 12.9%
San Diego 14.7%
San Francisco 23.9%
Seattle 11.4%
Tampa 11.3%
Washington 7.2%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 5/2013
MARKETING
Opening Doors with
POWERFUL MARKETING
8.69AverageMortgage% Rate
1972-2012
HISTORICALLY
4.29Today’s
Mortgage
% Rate
CURRENTLY In the FUTURE?
“I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5%
mortgage rate.”
- Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae 6/2013
before the financial crisis6.06 Average
after the financial crisis4.78 Average
$3,761.52The annual difference in mortgage payment (P&I) on a $250,000 home loan if rates go from 4.5 to 6.5%.
HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30 YEAR FIXED)
Freddie Mac Rates
KCM
%
Rate $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86
5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95
5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02
5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11
4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24
4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43
Mortgage Amount
z
Year-Over-Year change from NAR June 2013Single Family Residential
Condominiums & Co-ops
UP15.8%
UP 12.7%
UP11.8%
UP 13.7%
% Year-Over-Year Sales Increases by Price Point
Current % Price Change:
Source: WSJ 6/2013
4 REASONS to USE an AGENT 4 REASONS to USE an AGENT who SPECIALIZES in who SPECIALIZES in YOURYOUR AREA AREA
HOMES SELLQUICKER
HOMES SELL FOR 1.21% MORE
HOMES OVER MEDIAN PRICE SELL FOR 1.71% MORE
HOMES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SELL
http://terribuseman.wordpress.com/2013/06/13/are-we-approaching-another-housing-bubble/
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4,5Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.org
7 Year-Over-Year Sales by Price Point http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/page/4/
8 Median Days on Market by Typehttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/06/25/median-days-on-the-market-down-to-41-days-in-may/
10 Price Changes as per Case Shiller http://www.housingviews.com/2013/06/25/how-the-cities-did-in-april/
11,12Are Properties Overvalued, Gains as Measured Between the First Quarters of 2004 and 2013
http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=240711 (Paid Service)
13 The Economist Index of US House Prices http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/06/us-house-prices
15 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
16,1930 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History, Recent Rate Movement
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
20 Doug Duncan Quotehttp://www.inman.com/2013/06/24/experts-doubt-surge-in-mortgage-rates-will-derail-housing-recovery
Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
21 Frank Nothaft Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
23 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
24 Breakdown of Today’s Purchasers http://www.dsnews.com/articles/investor-activity-falls-sharply-in-may-2013-06-24
25 Agents Who Specializehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323844804578531554168068278.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_MansionWeekly
28 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
29,30,31 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CSHomePrice_Release_March-Qtr1-Results.pdf
37% Year-Over-Year Sales Increases by Price Point
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/page/4/
38 Current % Price Change http://www.housingviews.com/2013/06/25/how-the-cities-did-in-april
394 Reasons to Use an Agent who Specializes in Your Area
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323844804578531554168068278.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_MansionWeekly
40Are We Approaching Another Housing Bubble?
http://terribuseman.wordpress.com/2013/06/13/are-we-approaching-another-housing-bubble
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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