NAFORMAAcchievements, key findings,recommendations

and the way forward

Nurdin Chamuya (Head FRMA, TFS) and Soren Dalsgaard (CTA NAFORMA FAO), Meeting at DPG-E, 10th June 2014.

NAFORMA Charateristics

• 62 months (2009-14)• 214 person years (47 FAO, 167 MNRT)• 6 million USD donor funding • 2 million USD counterpart contribution.• Biophysical data - 30,773 plots (118 variables),

240,000+ trees• Socioeconomic data (100 variables)

3,493 households + 1,118 Key Informants

Measurements of biophysical parameters

Direct observations

Local interviews

NAFORMA data collection

Key message: First time ever National Forest Inventory (NFI) in Tanzania. Wide range of data collected on trees, uses and users

Forests4%

Wood-lands51%Bushlands

7%

Grasslands9%

Cultivated lands25%

Other lands4%

NAFORMA – Land area55% of land area of Tanzaniais forest and woodland.

NAFORMA field inventory captures 42% more forest area than earlier Estimates.

Ground based inventory necessary for accurate estimates

New knowledge

New Knowledge

• Soil Organic Carbon

Soil Organic Carbon predictions

New Knowledge

• Soil Organic Carbon

• Biomass and Carbon

Living tree stemwood biomass and carbon by primary vegetation type

New Knowledge

• Soil Organic Carbon

• Biomass and Carbon

• Species distribution

Figure 7.5 Twenty most common tree species – all vegetation types

New Knowledge

• Soil Organic Carbon

• Biomass and Carbon

• Species distribution

• Land Use Land Cover Map (2010)

Some key figures

• Total volume of wood is 3,3 billion m3 - estimated 77.2 billion trees: – 97 % from trees of natural origin – 3 % is from planted trees.

• The average volume of wood is 37.9 m3/ha across all land cover types, large variation: – 1 m3/ha in open grassland to – 171 m3/ha in Humid Montane forest.

• The standing volume of wood per capita is 74.4m3

Some more key figures

• Half the volume is found in protected areas • Average demand is estimated at 1.39

m3/capita/year • Average sustainable supply (AAC) is estimated

at 0.95 m3/capita/year

Forest area pr capita 1984-2010

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Forest area per capitaExponential (Forest area per capita)

Hect

ares

per

capi

ta

Demand – Supply analysis of mainland Tanzania

Key messages

• Demand exceeds sustainable supply• This leads to overharvesting in accessible

forests and encroachment of protected areas• Energy and population growth are main

drivers• Solutions have to look beyond the forestry

sector

National Forest Programme3 scenarios

Dealing with the deficit

• Getting rid of deficit by 2030 – 185.000 ha plantations to be established annually

• Maintaining status quo – 109.000 ha plantations to be etsbalished annually

• BAU – Deficit grows to 47 million m3 by 2030

NFP -take home messages

• Not a uniquely Tanzanian challenge – Africa consumes 20% of the worlds wood.

• Largely driven by household energy needs, lack of affordable alternatives, population growth

• Growing wood deficit = principal challenge for the NFP • NFP 2015–24 identifies urgent need increased woodlot and

plantation efforts.

• Wood-deficit cannot be met through forestry initiatives alone. • Drivers of forest depletion to be addressed in a coordinated,

cross-sectoral manner

Population and forest area

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

PopulationExponential (Population)Forest area (ha)

Mill

ions

What will vegetation look like in 100 years time?

Will there still be room for natural vegetation outside protected areas?

Data and Information

Quote from the speech of Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism at the release of the key findings May 2013:

“…NAFORMA data is a national resource to be accessed and utilized by every ministry, researcher, Local Government Authority, NGO, Private Sector and all citizens.

Our responsibility will be to make access to the NAFORMA information as universal and as easy as possible…. “

NAFORMA datasharing

WEBSITE

Database portal

Strategic partnerships and Institutional collaborations

• FAO-Finland Programme• Finnish Forest Research institute (SUA +

TAFORI)• Open door

Examples possible collaborations

• Soil Samples

Timeline NAFORMA & NFP

Thank you