NAFTA & EU Compared DrlazinWords

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My E-books:

1.("NAFTA and The European Union Compared" AND "Dr. Olga Lazin")

Emerging World Trade Blocs: The North American Free

Trade Area and the European Union Compared

By

Olga M. Lazin, UCLA

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Let us compare for the early 1990s:

(a) the 15 countries comprised in the European Union (data for which here

include three countries that are to join in January 1995),

(b) the six Eastern European countries likely to join the European Union in the

long term under the Europe Agreement,(1)

(c) the EU constituencies; 27 countries to date

(d) EU and NAFTA countries compared,

(d) major world trading blocs, especially Mercosur which is being courted by

both NAFTA and EU, and

(f) the NAFTA schedule for managing the opening of duty-free trade by item for

each of the three countries.

Data on the major trade blocs are included in order to show the context in which

NAFTA and EU discuss expansion. The Europe Agreement to unite the continent

east and west was signed on October 5, 1992, at Luxembourg; and the EU's

negotiations to develop a special relationship with Mercosur have acquired

importance by mid-1994 as Mercosur debates how closely to try to relate to

NAFTA.

Comparison is presented in five tables. Tables 1, 2, and 3 cover population, GNP,

GNP/C, and export share in GNP for the EU, Eastern Europe, and NAFTA. Table

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4 covers the same data for major trade blocs. Table 5 shows the relative

importance of the major trade blocs, using the USA as reference point. Table 6

presents the current situation of economic blocs as through statistics for six

countries, Japan standing as its own economic bloc.

Table 1 allows us to examine the ranges in country size for population. ReunitedGermany has the largest population, 81 million. Italy and the U.K. follow as the

second and third largest countries, virtually tied at 58 million persons. Germany's

population is 207 times larger than the smallest country--Luxembourg has only

389,000 persons. In terms of GNP, Germany is 134 higher than that of

Luxembourg

Given such disparities in size, is it "fair" that the EU member countries have

disproportionate voting rights which are weighted in favor of small countries?

(For shares of voting rights, see Appendix A.) One good argument for such

weighting is that Luxembourg has the highest GNP/C of EU's (US$ 35,260) and

the highest export share in GNP (94%). Spain has a larger population (39 million)

but has EU's lowest export share in GNP (17%). Such complexities explain why

weighted voting rights are not as arbitrary as first glance might have us believe. In

any case big countries have enough votes that it takes the votes of many small

countries to reach the present blocking minority of 23 votes, a total which once

the EU reaches 15 countries will be 26 votes. (2)

Table 2 shows ranges in size for the six countries of Eastern Europe seeking to

join the EU. Poland has the highest GNP (US$ 75 billion), much higher than thatof EU member Ireland (US$ 42 billion). Unfortunately Poland is weak in exports,

which amount to 19% of its GNP. Hungary's advantage is due to its earlier

leadership among the former communist countries in carrying out economic

reform, its GNP/C being 54% higher than that of Poland.

The relationship of Poland to "smaller" countries is interesting. Although Poland

has 4 times the population of Bulgaria's 9 million, Poland has the lowest export

share of GNP. Bulgaria has the second largest export share in GNP (45), after the

Czech Republic, which leads both in export share in GNP (58) and also in GNP/C(US$ 2,440) as compared to the rest of the Eastern European countries.

With regard to the two poorest countries seeking to join the EU, the poor

economic performance of Romania is noteworthy. The Romanian GNP is hardly

double that of the Slovak Republic (US$ 10 billion), yet the two countries are

equal in GNP export share (28%). Romania's trade with Eastern Europe collapsed

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in 1991 along with the COMECON trading organization. Subsequent growth in

trade with the West has been slow, and current-account deficits of more than US$

billion have been recorded in each of the last four years. In terms of population,

Romania is 4 times larger than that of the Slovak Republic (5.3 million). The

legacy of a high-inflation environment and modest growth accounts for the

Romanian currency's very small purchasing power. Despite all thesesshortcomings Romania became a full member of EU in ten years, that is

December 1st, 2007.

The Slovak Republic with its small population and economy calls our attention.

How can it hope to compete in an expended EU? Although its population is only

5 million and its GNP is only US$ 10 billion, Slovakia has a relatively high level

of export in GNP, 60% higher than the larger Romania.

Given the above disparities, interests within the EU have been divided into five

"constituencies." (3) (See Chart 1.) The "Core" constituency is France and

Germany (which founded in 1951 the European Coal and Steel Community to

rebuild war-torn Western Europe). To this core are appended Belgium, Holland,

and Luxembourg, too close geographically and too small economically to avoid

being drawn into the orbit of power.

The second EU constituency is made of the "free traders" Britain and Denmark

(both of which joined the EU in the early 1970s). Britain leads the way to open a

common market of goods, services, capital, and people while at the same time

trying to prevent the rise in Europe of any singly powerful country.

The EU third constituency involves the poorer, newly democratic members

admitted in 1980s (Greece, 1981; Portugal and Spain, 1986), each seeking to

modernize their economies in order to guarantee against a resurgence of any

authoritarian rule. This expansion widened the gap between richer and poorer

countries, the latter including Ireland and to some extent Italy.

The fourth constituency involves Eastern Europe, which freed itself from Russian

rule after 1989. It sees admission to the EU, proposed for the year 2000 byGermany, as guarantee against the resurgence of Russian authority in the region.

The fifth EU constituency involves the European Free Trade Association

(Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden), which has realized, except for Norway, that

it must not be left out of the EU as it expands to include even Eastern Europe.

Indeed Austria may move directly into the Core.

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Given the divergent interests of these five constituencies, two models offer future

direction to solve the problem of disunity within unity. The British model, which

seeks to give more or less equal weight to, the concentric circles depicted in Chart

1, thus encourage cooperative diversity; and the German-French model, which

seeks to move forward with monetary union and unified foreign policy focused

on the center circle in Chart 1. The idea that Britain may resist France andGermany by refusing to join the EU monetary union has prompted The

Economist to write:

If Britain stays out, only to change its mind later {as it did about the EU], it

leaders may seem as silly as Churchill now seems, for this comment on the

founding of the European Coal and Steel Community 43 years ago: 'I love France

and Belgium but we must not allow ourselves to be pulled down to that level." (4)

Turning now to a comparison of the EU and NAFTA, several factors emerge. The

population of the two trade blocks is about the same (363.3 million for NAFTA,

345.0 million for the 12 EU countries, and 368.8 for the 15 countries in 1992).

With regard to economic differences, Germany emerges as having the biggest

sheer economic power, followed by France and Italy within the EU.

Noticeable is that the USA has the highest GNP among all countries (US$ 5.9

trillion) and the highest GNP/C within NAFTA (US$ 23,120).

Comparing the countries with lowest export share of GNP in each unit, NAFTA's

Mexico with only 14% has much less than the EU's Greece, which stands at 23%.Romania and the Slovak Republic have twice Mexico's export share in GNP.

With regard to the power of population and GNP, the index in Table 5 is based on

the fact that the most important country is the USA, which equals 100. while

Mexico has one-third of the U.S. population, but only 5% of GNP.

Table 5 shows why Japan is often seen as the economic "enemy" of both NAFTA

and the EU, its power being concentrated in one county which has established a

web of trade dependency worldwide. Its GNP/C is 21% higher than that of theUSA.

Japan's accumulation of world trade capital is one of the reasons why so many

other countries are trying to compete globally by implicitly forming trade blocks.

NAFTA gives the USA, Canada and Mexico the possibility of expanding

international and international trade at Japan's expense.

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The USA dwarfs most of the Western hemisphere in terms of GNP, except for

Canada, which reaches 84.3% of the U.S. total. (See Table 5.) Although the

European Union is 48% larger in population than the USA, its GNP/C is only

89% of the U.S. amount.

In establishing itself as FTA linchpin in the Americas, (5) Mexico has done so inspite of the fact that it has only one-third of the U.S. population, 5% of the U.S.

GNP, and 15.3% of the U.S. GNP/C at the same time, however the NAFTA

framework enhances Mexico's tremendously as U.S. business investment has

arrived with new impetus beginning in 1994, especially after the national "defeat"

of the Chiapas rebels in August at ballot boxes almost everywhere in Mexico.

In relation to the USA, Mexico's GNP/C exceeds by 3.5% that of Mercosur's

12.8% share of the USA's GNP/C, while Germany, with about the same

population as Mexico, has 96% of U.S. GNP/C, raising the average for the EU to

80% of the same figure.

To further this comparison, let us note the fact that since 1994 the New York

Times (NYT) is carrying a regular comparison of the NAFTA-EU-Japan

economic situation for competition (See Table 6.) To represent the EU, the NYT

gives Britain and Germany; to represent NAFTA, it gives all three partners; to

represent global competition, it gives Japan.

The bottom line for global competition is shown in the 1993 manufacturing wage

gap given in Table 7. With five leading countries of Western Europe trying tocompete under a burden of hourly scale averaging nearly US$ 21, Japan and the

United States nearly tied in the US$ 16 hourly range, and the Asian "tigers"

(Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong) averaging about US$ 5

hourly, two facts are clear. Mexico with its US$ 2.41 hourly manufacturing

average is the attractive partner wherein factories can be established in the

Western Hemisphere. Eastern Europe with its US$ .90 is the equivalent area of

the future for the European Union.

Although Germany is moving important manufacturing funds into Romania, forexample, the EU has yet to formally bring Eastern Europe into a formal

relationship like that enjoyed by Mexico with NAFTA. Eastern Europe as a whole

(except for the Czech Republic) awaits the opening of it economies, which remain

largely non-market as is shown in Appendix B.

The NAFTA model for opening its three countries over 15 years provides a much

easier process than that faced by Eastern Europe of having to integrate into the

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EU on a complete basis and mostly all at once. The effect of NAFTA integration

on Mexico, the USA and Canada is shown in Table 8, which divides the process

into the following time frames for elimination of tariffs: immediately as of

January 1, 1994, and within 5, 10 years, and 15 years.

With regard to immediate action by Mexico, it eliminated duties on all U.S. andCanadian products not made in Mexico, that is on 43 percent of its purchases in

those two countries. Although most of Mexicos purchases seemingly come from

the USA (63.4 percent in 1992) and little from Canada (1.0 percent), the reality is

that much of the Canada-Mexico trade is lost statistically when it passes through

the USA where it becomes incorporated into U.S. trade data.

The USA took immediate action to eliminate duties on nearly 50 percent of

Mexican imports and Canada 19 percent of Mexican imports. Canadas actions

involved a complete opening to Mexican textiles (including thread, cloth, and

clothing), which in 1992 reached about 17 million dollars in value. (Mexican

textile exports to the USA were 56 times greater.)

CONCLUSION

NAFTA and the EU differ greatly in three major ways. The EU goes beyond

NAFTA's trading plan to include free movement of citizens as workers and

students; and EU seeks eventual unification of such potentially controversial

areas as currency, foreign policy, and military coordination.

The second difference is that NAFTA has the trading edge to expand beyond

Mexico into Latin America. Not only do the USA and Mexico have large trade

experience with the region that dwarfs that of the EU, but Mexico has made the

many agreements that at once make expanded trade possible as well as require it

to make multilateral sense of its many bilateral agreements. Canada has far to go

in developing trade beyond the USA, and both countries face stiff competition

from Japan. Under Mexico's leadership in bringing about the integration of the

Americas, however, NAFTA seems well positioned to compete with the EU as it

takes its first serious steps to develop relations with Mercosur.

The third major difference is that the "core" for NAFTA is the USA, for EU it is

two countries. With Mitterrands term coming to an end in France and Jacque

Delors not only retiring as the unifying head of the European Commission but

declining to be the front-runner to replace Mitterrand as president of France, the

question is whether or not Germany can count on either a dynamic concept of the

EU or France as traditional ally as it seeks ever greater EU unity on all fronts.

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Sumario de provisiones delTratado de Libre Comercio de America del Norte

(TLC) y la UninEuropea (UE)

TLC UE

MetasUn mercado de comercio

de bienes

Criterios transnacionalespara crear,

paso a paso, una unin poltica,

econmicay de poblacin.

Actividad

Cada miembro establecesu

propia politico externa

sujeta a negociaciones.

El Consejo de Ministros(el

principal rgano de toma de

decisiones con representacinde

todos los paises) toma decisiones

aplicable.s a todos los miembros.

Moneda Cada miembro tienesupropia moneda.

Los miembros han establecido una

unidad monetaria comn (el ECU)

pero coda pasmantiene an su

propia moneda. Bajo el Tratado de

MaastricL, seprogram que el ECU

se volvlera la nica unidad

moneuriapara 1999

Aranceles

Cada paLconserve sus

propias regulaciones

arancelaria.

Los miembros se unieron en un

slo mercado a partir del 1 de enero

de 1993. Capital,bienes y servicios

circulan entre los paises de la UE.

Existe el compromiso para abolir

los controles de migracin interna,pero algunospaises han pospuesto

su cumplimiento.

Transporte

Autoriza a camionesy

cargueros comunes para

circular entre paises. (El

trfico camioneroen

cruzar la frontera

mexicana libremente para

1999.)

Se estableciuna poltica comn

para un bloque sin fronteras y la

apertureto total de las rutas de

transporte, excepto el trfico

camionero,que est prohibido Los

Alpes suizos y austracos.

EmpleoLos trabajadoresno estn

incluidos.

Los trabajadorespueden moverse

libremente entre los paises

miembros.

MigracinyCiU

adana

Slo profesionistas,persona

de negocios e

inversionistas aenen el

Los ciudadanos delos paises de la

UE tienen garantizada la libertad de

movimiento y residencia.Los

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derecho de trabajar en

losestados miembros.

ciudadanos votan par el Parlamento

Europeo en su lugar de

residenciasin importer su

ciudadana. Estn siendo

introducidos pasaportesde color

tinto en to da la UE.Acuerdos de

comerciocon otros

pases no

mlembros

No cubiertos.

Los acuerdos de comercio son

firmados par la Unin, no por

pases individuales.

Polticaexterna No cubierta.

Los miembros estncomprometidos

con una poltica externa comn,

pero pocuspaises buscan en

realidad su cabal cumplimiento.

Inflacinyadministrac in

macroeconmica

No incluidas.Los pulses miembrosdeben

adherirse a los lmites mximos.

Competencia y

calldadNo cubiertas.

Los miembros acordaronestablecer

estrategias comunes para hacer a

todos Los pases

igualmentecompetitivos. Las

normac de calidad.son mnimac.

Proteccinalconsumidor No cubierta.

Los miembros seadhieren a

regulaciones estndar que estnsiendo establecidas.

Politica social No cobierta.

Se aplican criteriosestndar a todos

los paises (por ejemplo, la

seguridad social).

Legislacion de

impuestos

Cubre sloel Tratado de

Doble Impuesto.

Establece una pauta estndar para

todos los miembros. Se otorgan

privilegios especialespara ayudar

en las area econmicamente

necesitadas tale. como EspaayPortugal. Finlandia y Austria se

beneficiarn al volverse miembros.

Medio ambiente

Los participantesestn

estableciendo estndares

comunes en Los tratados

Iaterales

Los miembros hanestablecido una

poltica externa de estndares y

medidas.

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Salud No cubierta.Los miembroshan establecido un

programa comn

Educacin

Aunque el TLC esuna

unin economica, ha

surgido un acuerdo lateral,

pero no al mismonivel quepara el programa

ERASMUS.

Establece programasde intercambio

para estudiante de educacin

superior y profesoresunlversitarios.

El programa ERASMUS apoya alos estudiantes que estudienhaste

un afio en otro pais de la UE.

Defensa No cobierta.

Los miembros buscandesarrollar

una poltica comn de seguridad.

Se ha establecidoun sistema militar

comn, pero coda pais conserve su

propia milicia.

1. Indicadores de poblacion, produccion y exportacionesde Union Europea 1

Pais

Poblacion

(

m

il

es

)

Producto interno

bruto(mi

llones dedolares)

Produtcto

inter

no

brut

o per

capita

(dol

ares)

Proporcion del

producto

interno

bruto

dedicadoala

exportacio

n

Alemania2 80,553 1,846,064 23,030 24

Austria 7,906 174,767 22,110 41

Belgica 10,039 209,594 20,880 73

Dinamarca 5,166 133,941 25,930 37

Espana 39,077 547,947 14,020 17

Finlandia 5,062 116,309 22,980 22

Francia 57,338 1,278,652 22,300 23

Grecia 10,454 75,106 7,180 23

Irlanda 3,536 42,798 12,100 62

Italia 57,844 1,186,568 20,510 20

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Luxembourgo 389 13,716 35,260 94

Paises Bajos 15,167 312,340 20,590 54

Portugal 9,843 73,336 7,450 35

Reino Unido 57,701 1,024,769 17,760 24

Suecia 8,707 233,209 26,780 2815 paises 368,782 7,269,116 19,6583 27c

12 paises 347,107 6,978,040 20,1034 25c

1. Indicadores de poblacion, produccion y exportacionesde Europa Oriental

Pais

Poblacion

(m

il

e

s

)

Producto interno

bruto(mil

lones de

dolares)

Produtcto

inter

nobruto

per

capit

a

(dola

res)

Proporcion del

productointerno

bruto

dedicadoa

la

exportacio

n

Bulgaria 8,952 11,906 1,330 45

Hungria 10,202 30,671 3,010 33Polonia 38,365 75,268 1,960 19

Republica

Checa10,383 25,313 2,440 58

Republica

Slovaca5,346 10,249 1,920 28

Rumania 22,865 24,865 1,090 28

Total 96,113 178,272 1,854a 305

1. Indicadores de poblacion, produccion y exportacionesde America del Norte

Pais Poblacion

(

m

il

Producto interno

bruto(mill

ones de

dolares)

Produtcto

intern

o

bruto

Proporcion del

producto

interno

bruto

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e

s

)

per

capita

(dolar

es)

dedicadoa la

exportacion

Canada 27,844 565,787 20,320 25

Estados

Unidos255,414 5,904,822 23,120 11

Mexico 84,967 294,831 13,470 14

Total 368,225 6,765,440 18,374a 126

1. Principales bloques de comercio mundial7

BloqueCome

rcial

Miembros

Poblacion

(mill

on

es)

Producto interno

bruto(millo

nes de

dolares)

Produtcto interno

brutoper

capita

(dolares)

TLC 3 363.3 6,404.2 17,622

SICA 6 29.5 36.0 1,222

ACS 25 198.7 474.0 2,386

G3 3 137.8 377.7 2,740Pacto Andino 5 93.8 160.1 1,707

MERCOSUR 4 191.6 544.1 2,840

Union Europea815 368.8 7,269.1 19,658

Union Europea 12 345.0 6,144.0 17,809

APEC 13 1,961.0 11,135.1 5,678

TLC

Mexico 83.3 282.5 3,391

Estados Unidos 252.7 5,610.8 22,203

Canada a 27.3 510.8 18,711

SICA

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Costa Rica 3.1 5.6 1,796

ACS

Cuba 10.7 26.9 2,500

G3

Colombia 33.6 41.7 1,241

Pacto Andino

Venezuela 20.2 53.4 2,644

MERCOSUR9

Brazil 151.4 414.1 2,735

Chile6 13.4 31.3 2,336

Union Europea

Alemania 79.6 1,692.0 21,256

APEC

Japon 124.0 3,337.0 26,911

As of 2010 we have now 27 countries contained within the EU.

Statistics from source: Olga M. Lazin, Mexico as

Linchpin for Free Trade in the Americas, in Statistical Abstract of

Latin America, vol. 31, 2001.

1. Population and economic power index from devepoed countries (Indice de

poblacion y poder economico de las principales unidades de comercio

mundial) in 2010

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Area Population/Poblation GNP GNP/C

Mexico 33.0 5.0 15.3

Canada 10.8 9.1 84.3

MERCOSUR 75.8 9.7 12.8Alemania 31.5 30.2 95.7

EU 147.6 131.5 89.1

Japon 49.0 59.5 121.2

To conclude on a general note, NAFTA is more equitably positioned in terms of

internal wage gap between countries than is the EU. For NAFTA, the U.S.

manufacturing wage rate is 6.8 time larger than Mexico. For the EU, the existinggap between the highest wage-paying Western Germany and the lowest paying

Portugal is 5.4, but the potential gap once EU expands into Eastern Europe is 36.6

times--the difference between West Germany and Bulgaria.

Equity is not the only issue, however, and indeed inequity in this case may help

Eastern Europe attract capital in the competition for ever cheaper manufacturing

sites in an era of globalization.

Crossing back over the Atlantic, Mexico has taken up a leading role in requiringbetter Labor laws and environmental standards which are to be perfected within

NAFTA, otherwise the second bigger free trade alliance will remain only a mere

customs union.

RECENT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS:

1. Obama agrees to reinstate Bush pilot program for Mexico trucks and drivers

to enter USA, thus potentially ending WTO authorization of tariffs to punish

U.S. for having violated NAFTA.

2. Mexico is now benefiting from the electrical and hybrid car boom in the USA,

U.S. auto companies have made Mexico their assembly/manufacturing base also

because of Maquiladora legal advantages.

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3. Auto and other manufacturing companies in EU countries (or other countries

which do not have an FTA (Free Trade Area) with NAFTA or the USA are

taking advantage of the fact that Mexico is the only country that has an FTA

with NAFTA, thus EU countries, e.g., use Mexico as their

manufacturing/assembly base to send their exports from Mexico to the USA asMexican exports.

4. Mexico is still the only country to have an FTA with both NAFTA and the

EU.

Canada is far from an accord with EU because each of the 27 EU countries will

have to approve of that FTA.

5. European and Asian countries are using Mexico as the base to export to

Central and South Americas as well as the Caribbean.

6. Many companies who left for China have returned to Mexico which has more

secure legal system, does not demand co-ownership, and has much, much lower

transport costs. Further, U.S. Executive can fly from many U.S.

cities and still be in the same time zone and not suffer from long-flight jetlag to

Asia.

7. The Asian fresh vegetable market for export to USA is based on Mexico's

West Coast. (The Dominican Republic failed for Asian exporters, owing to

infrastructure and transport issues into the USA as well as time delay to reach

the American West Coast where the Asian population has grown exponentially.)

7. Many U.S. Companies requiring high-tech industrial skills have moved back

to Mexico from the Caribbean (where they moved when the USA signed FTAswith that area.) Caribbean countries tend to lack high-tech advantages. Plus

hurricanes are very disruptive.

B. CONTINUING PROBLEM:NAFTA FLAGS

1. Labor rights and double taxation issues for workers

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are not included and far from inclusion.

2. Public safety issues for executives and employees are of great concern to

foreign companies.

Olga Lazin 2011

-----

Footnotes

(1)Desmond Dinan, Ever Closer Union? An Introduction to the European

Community (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1994), p. 479.

(2)

Currently 54 votes out of 76 total are needed to obtain a "qualified"

(decisive) majority; once the number of countries reaches 15, the decisive

majority will be 62 votes out of 87 total. the U.K.'s concern is that even if it

were to be joined by Germany and Holland to form a "liberal group," they

could not form a blocking minority even though they have 40% of the vote

between them. See Appendix A and "The European Union Survey," The

Economist, October 22, 1994, p. 20.

(3)

"The European Union: Back to the Drawing Board," The Economist,

September 10, 1994, pp. 21-23.

(4)

Ibid, p. 23.

(5)

See James W. Wilkie and Olga Lazin, "Mexico as Linchpin for Free Trade

in the Americas," Background Study prepared for PROFMEX-ANUIES

Conference on "Mexico and the Americas," Puerto Vallarta, Mexico,November 13-16, 1994,

(6) Olga Lazin, http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/8467402-what-is-

new-with-nafta, March 16, 2011

Copyright 2011 Olga Lazin-Andrei

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Playa del Carmen, 2011. March

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P3180200

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P3180185

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253 above

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Con Guillermo, Manager.

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