NAGDAR FEASIBILITY REPORT.pdf

Scott Wilson Ltd Electra Consultants

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Nagdar Hydropower Project Feasibility Report

FHC Consulting Engineers

TABLE OF CONTENTS


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TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

ABBREVIATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SALIENT FEATURES 1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 2

1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND............................................................................. 2 1.2 SCOPE OF WORK.......................................................................................... 4 1.3 NAGDAR HYDROPOWER PROJECT............................................................ 4

1.3.1 Location .......................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 Salient Features.............................................................................. 5

1.4 ACCESSIBILITY TO THE PROJECT AREA................................................... 6 1.4.1 Route Distance ............................................................................... 6

1.5 COMMUNICATION ......................................................................................... 7 1.6 ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY......................................................................... 8 1.7 PREVIOUS STUDIES ..................................................................................... 8

2 TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEYS ..................................................................................... 11

2.1 GENERAL ..................................................................................................... 11 2.2 SCOPE OF WORK........................................................................................ 11 2.3 TOPOGRAPHY OF NEELUM RIVER CATCHMENT.................................... 11 2.4 AVAILABLE TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS ............................................................ 12 2.5 DETAILED TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEY.......................................................... 12

2.5.1 Reference Grid.............................................................................. 13 2.5.2 Bench Marks and Control Points .................................................. 13 2.5.3 Horizontal Control ......................................................................... 13 2.5.4 Vertical Control ............................................................................. 14

2.6 LONGITUDINAL PROFILE OF NAGDAR NULLAH...................................... 14 2.7 TOPOGRAPHY WITH SATELLITE IMAGES................................................ 14 2.8 PREPARATION OF CONTOUR MAPS ........................................................ 15 2.9 SOFTWARE .................................................................................................. 15

3 HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENTATION.................................................................... 19

3.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................... 19 3.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE CATCHMENT ........................................................ 19 3.3 CLIMATE....................................................................................................... 21

3.3.1 Temperature ................................................................................. 22 3.3.2 Precipitation .................................................................................. 23

3.4 HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS....................................................................... 25 3.4.1 Flow Record at Various Gauging Stations .................................... 26

3.4.1.1 Flows of Neelum River at Dudhnial and Nausehri Stations....................................................... 27

3.5 ESTIMATION OF EXTENDED FLOWS AT KUNDAL SHAHI ....................... 27 3.5.1 Muzaffarabad-Kundal Shahi Correlation....................................... 28 3.5.2 Naran-Kundal Shahi Correlation ................................................... 30 3.5.3 Estimated & Measured Flows of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi ... 34

3.6 ESTIMATION OF FLOWS AT NAGDAR....................................................... 36 3.6.1 Measured Flows at Nagdar Nullah................................................ 36 3.6.2 Comparison of Flows at Nagdar ................................................... 45


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3.7 FLOW DURATION CURVE........................................................................... 46 3.8 LOW FLOWS AT THE PROJECT................................................................. 48 3.9 ESTIMATION OF FLOODS........................................................................... 49

3.9.1 Estimation of Floods by Gumble Frequency Analysis Method...... 50 3.9.2 Estimation of Floods by Log Pearson Type - III Method ............... 51 3.9.3 Estimation of Floods by Rainfall Runoff Relationship ................... 52 3.9.4 Floods Recommended at the Weir Site ........................................ 53

3.10 SEDIMENT TRANSPORT STUDIES ............................................................ 53 3.10.1 Available Sediment Data............................................................... 53 3.10.2 Sediment Load / Yield at Weir Site ............................................... 54 3.10.3 Sediment Bed Load ...................................................................... 55 3.10.4 Particle Size Distribution ............................................................... 55

4 GEOLOGICAL AND GEOTECHNICAL STUDIES................................................... 59

4.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................... 59 4.2 GEOMORPHOLOGY .................................................................................... 60

4.2.1 Topography................................................................................... 60 4.2.2 Hydrology...................................................................................... 60 4.2.3 Drainage Pattern........................................................................... 60 4.2.4 Terraces........................................................................................ 60 4.2.5 Talus Cone / Colluvial Material ..................................................... 60

4.3 REGIONAL GEOLOGY OF NEELUM VALLEY ............................................ 60 4.3.1 Geological Setting......................................................................... 60 4.3.2 Lithostratigraphy ........................................................................... 61 4.3.3 Naril Group.................................................................................... 62 4.3.4 Kundal Shahi Group...................................................................... 62 4.3.5 The Surgun Group ........................................................................ 62 4.3.6 Metamorphic Evolution ................................................................. 63 4.3.7 Tectonic Evolution......................................................................... 63

4.4 SITE GEOLOGY ........................................................................................... 64 4.4.1 Lithological Units........................................................................... 64

4.4.1.1 Soil Units .................................................................... 64 4.4.1.2 ABGM......................................................................... 64 4.4.1.3 RBGM ........................................................................ 64 4.4.1.4 ABG............................................................................ 64 4.4.1.5 RBG ........................................................................... 64

4.4.2 Rock Units..................................................................................... 65 4.4.2.1 Schists........................................................................ 65 4.4.2.2 Gneiss ........................................................................ 65 4.4.2.3 Granite ....................................................................... 65

4.5 GEOLOGICAL, GEOTECHNICAL INVESTIGATIONS AND SEISMIC STUDIES ....................................................................................... 66 4.5.1 Surface Geological Mapping......................................................... 66 4.5.2 Drilling ........................................................................................... 72 4.5.3 Test Pits ........................................................................................ 72 4.5.4 Laboratory Testing ........................................................................ 73

4.6 SEISMICTY ................................................................................................... 73 4.6.1 Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) & Associated Earthquakes. 74 4.6.2 Hazara Lower Seismic Zone (HLSZ) ............................................ 74 4.6.3 Hazara Fault Zone and Associated Earthquakes ......................... 75 4.6.4 Kashmir Balakot Earthquake of October 08, 2005..................... 75

4.7 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS ..................................................................... 76 4.8 DEAGGREGATION....................................................................................... 79


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4.9 SEISMICITY OF PROJECT AREA................................................................ 79 4.10 CATALOGUES.............................................................................................. 79

4.10.1 Number of Events ......................................................................... 79 4.10.2 Working Procedure ....................................................................... 80 4.10.3 Results .......................................................................................... 80

4.11 OVERVIEW AND INTERPRETATION OF CATALOGUE DATA .................. 80 4.11.1 Catalogue...................................................................................... 80 4.11.2 Seismogenic Depth....................................................................... 81

4.12 SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING...................................................................... 82 4.12.1 Tectonic Subdivisions of the Northwestern Himalayas ................. 82

4.12.1.1 General ...................................................................... 82 4.12.1.2 General features of the Himalayan Tectonic Regions 83

4.13 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (PSHA) ............................ 84 4.13.1 Seismic Source Models ................................................................ 84

4.13.1.1 Procedure................................................................... 84 4.13.1.2 Source Zone Parameters ........................................... 84 4.13.1.3 Seismic Source Zones of Model 1 ............................. 85 4.13.1.4 Source Zone Parameters of Model 1 ......................... 87 4.13.1.5 Seismic Source Zones of Model 2 ............................. 89

4.14 INDIVIDUAL RESULTS................................................................................. 91 4.14.1 Results of Model - 1 ...................................................................... 92

4.14.1.1 Total Hazard............................................................... 92 4.14.1.2 Deaggregation of Hazard ........................................... 92 4.14.1.3 Uniform Hazard Spectra............................................. 94 4.14.1.4 Source Contribution to Probabilistic Hazard .............. 96 4.14.1.5 Deterministic Spectra ................................................. 96

4.14.2 Results of Model - 2 ...................................................................... 97 4.14.2.1 Deaggregation of Hazard ........................................... 97 4.14.2.2 Uniform Hazard Spectra............................................. 99 4.14.2.3 Source Contribution to Probabilistic Hazard ............ 101

4.15 FINAL EVALUATION OF MCE, DBE AND OBE, ENGINEERING PARAMETERS............................................................................................ 102 4.15.1 Annual Probability of Exceedance for MCE, DBE and OBE ....... 102 4.15.2 Design Response Spectra Derived from Attenuation Laws for

Different Return Periods ............................................................. 103 4.15.3 Acceleration Response Spectra for Vertical Earthquake

Component ................................................................................. 103 4.15.4 Final Acceleration Response Spectra for Horizontal and

Vertical Earthquake Components ............................................... 103 4.15.5 Acceleration Response Spectra for Return Period of

5000, 2000, 2500 and 1000 Years.............................................. 105 4.16 CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL..................................................................... 108

4.16.1 Coarse Aggregate....................................................................... 108 4.16.2 Fine Aggregate (Sand)................................................................ 109 4.16.3 Building Stone............................................................................. 109 4.16.4 Fill Material.................................................................................. 109 4.16.5 Cement and Steel ....................................................................... 109

4.17 PRELIMINARY FOUNDATION EVALUATION............................................ 109 4.17.1 Weir Site ..................................................................................... 109 4.17.2 Connecting Channel ................................................................... 111 4.17.3 Sandtrap ..................................................................................... 111 4.17.4 Headrace Tunnel ........................................................................ 111 4.17.5 Surge Tank ................................................................................. 111


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4.17.6 Powerhouse Cavern Structure.................................................... 112 4.17.7 Access Tunnel ............................................................................ 113 4.17.8 Tailrace ....................................................................................... 114

4.18 ROCK MASS ASSESMENT........................................................................ 114 4.18.1 Rock Structure Rating (RSR)...................................................... 115 4.18.2 Geomechanics Classification or Rock Mass Rating System ...... 118 4.18.3 Rock Tunneling Quality Index, Q ................................................ 125

4.19 GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD (GLOF)............................................ 132 4.20 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 132 4.21 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 134

5 ALTERNATIVE PROJECT LAYOUT ..................................................................... 137

5.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................... 137 5.2 TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES...................................................................... 137 5.3 PROJECT LAYOUT ALTERNATES............................................................ 138

5.3.1 Alternate Project Layout - I ......................................................... 138 5.3.2 Geological Aspects Alternate - I.................................................. 138

5.3.2.1 Weir Site................................................................... 138 5.3.2.2 Headrace Tunnel...................................................... 139 5.3.2.3 Surge Tank and Pressure Shaft............................... 139 5.3.2.4 Powerhouse and Tailrace ........................................ 139 5.3.2.5 Salient Features of Nagdar Alternative - I ................ 140

5.3.3 Alternate Project Layout - II ........................................................ 140 5.3.4 Geological Aspects of Alternate - II............................................. 141

5.3.4.1 Weir Site................................................................... 141 5.3.4.2 Power Channel......................................................... 141 5.3.4.3 Powerhouse ............................................................. 141 5.3.4.4 Salient Features of Nagdar Alternative - II ............... 142

5.4 COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE LAYOUTS........................................... 142 5.4.1 Gross Head and Power Potential................................................ 142 5.4.2 Project Layout ............................................................................. 142 5.4.3 Snowfall and Landslides ............................................................. 143 5.4.4 Line of Control............................................................................. 143

5.5 SELECTED LAYOUT .................................................................................. 143 6 PROJECT SIZING AND POWER POTENTIAL...................................................... 145

6.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................... 145 6.2 HYDROLOGY ............................................................................................. 145 6.3 CAPACITY OPTIMISATION........................................................................ 146

6.3.1 Compensation Flows .................................................................. 147 6.3.2 Head Losses ............................................................................... 147

6.3.2.1 Project Benefits ........................................................ 147 6.3.2.2 Cost Estimation ........................................................ 148

6.4 MARGINAL COST ANALYSIS .................................................................... 150 6.5 SELECTED CAPACITY .............................................................................. 152 6.6 POWER AND ENERGY .............................................................................. 152

7 CIVIL ENGINEERING DESIGN .............................................................................. 160

7.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................... 160 7.2 DIVERSION WEIR ...................................................................................... 161

7.2.1 Design Considerations................................................................ 162 7.2.2 Over Flow Section....................................................................... 162 7.2.3 Flushing Channel Section ........................................................... 164


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7.2.4 Gates and Stop Logs .................................................................. 165 7.2.5 Gravel Scour ............................................................................... 165

7.3 POWER INTAKE......................................................................................... 165 7.4 CONNECTING CHANNEL .......................................................................... 166

7.4.1 Reject Weir ................................................................................. 167 7.5 DESANDER / SANDTRAP.......................................................................... 167

7.5.1 Hydraulic Steel Structures .......................................................... 168 7.5.1.1 Inlet Gate.................................................................. 168 7.5.1.2 Outlet Gate............................................................... 169 7.5.1.3 Sand Flushing Gates................................................ 169

7.6 POWER TUNNEL ....................................................................................... 169 7.6.1 Conventional Heading Method.................................................... 171

7.6.1.1 External Water Pressure .......................................... 171 7.6.1.2 Support..................................................................... 172

7.7 SURGE TANK ............................................................................................. 172 7.7.1 Excavation and Support.............................................................. 174 7.7.2 Lining .......................................................................................... 174

7.8 PRESSURE SHAFT.................................................................................... 174 7.9 ECONOMIC DIAMETER OF PRESSURE SHAFT...................................... 175 7.10 ACCESS TUNNEL TO POWERHOUSE..................................................... 175

7.10.1 Inclined Shaft to Powerhouse ..................................................... 176 7.11 POWERHOUSE .......................................................................................... 176 7.12 TAILRACE TUNNEL.................................................................................... 177

8 HYDRO-MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT.................................................................... 179

8.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................... 179 8.2 MAIN DESIGN PARAMETERS................................................................... 179

8.2.1 Discharge.................................................................................... 179 8.2.2 Head Calculation......................................................................... 180

8.2.2.1 Head Water Level .................................................... 180 8.2.2.2 Tail Water Level ....................................................... 180 8.2.2.3 Gross Head .............................................................. 180 8.2.2.4 Head Losses ............................................................ 180 8.2.2.5 Turbine Net Head..................................................... 180

8.3 PLANT CAPACITY...................................................................................... 180 8.4 TURBINE SELECTION CRITERIA.............................................................. 181

8.4.1 Net Head..................................................................................... 181 8.4.2 Range of Discharges .................................................................. 182 8.4.3 Merits of Pelton over any other Type of Turbine......................... 182 8.4.4 Number of Units .......................................................................... 182

8.4.4.1 Efficient Water Use .................................................. 182 8.4.4.2 Space Limitation for Civil Structure .......................... 184 8.4.4.3 Maintenance Viewpoint ............................................ 184 8.4.4.4 Transportation .......................................................... 184

8.5 TURBINE PARAMETERS........................................................................... 185 8.5.1 Calculations ................................................................................ 186

8.5.1.1 Specific Speed ......................................................... 186 8.5.1.2 Velocity and Diameter .............................................. 187 8.5.1.3 Pitch Circle Diameter ............................................... 188 8.5.1.4 Runaway Speed....................................................... 188

8.6 TURBINE COMPONENTS.......................................................................... 188 8.6.1 General ....................................................................................... 188 8.6.2 Turbine Runner ........................................................................... 189


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8.6.3 Turbine Shaft .............................................................................. 189 8.6.4 Casing......................................................................................... 190 8.6.5 Nozzles ....................................................................................... 190 8.6.6 Needles....................................................................................... 191 8.6.7 Jet Deflectors .............................................................................. 191

8.7 GOVERNOR SYSTEM................................................................................ 191 8.7.1 General ....................................................................................... 191 8.7.2 Governor Head ........................................................................... 192 8.7.3 Oil Pressure System ................................................................... 192

8.8 INLET VALVE.............................................................................................. 193 8.9 POWERHOUSE CRANE............................................................................. 193 8.10 COOLING AND DEWATERING SYSTEM .................................................. 194

8.10.1 Basic Requirements.................................................................... 194 8.10.2 Cooling Water System ................................................................ 194 8.10.3 Power Station Drainage System ................................................. 194

8.11 HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM................ 195 8.11.1 General ....................................................................................... 195 8.11.2 General System Description ....................................................... 196

8.11.2.1 Machine Hall ............................................................ 196 8.11.2.2 Office and Control Room Building............................ 196 8.11.2.3 Design Criteria ......................................................... 197

8.12 AUXILIARY SYSTEM.................................................................................. 197 8.12.1 Workshop Equipment.................................................................. 197 8.12.2 Auxiliary Equipment .................................................................... 197

8.12.2.1 Oil Handling Equipment ........................................... 198 8.12.2.2 Fire Fighting System ................................................ 198

8.12.3 Maintenance Tools and Spares .................................................. 198 9 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT ................................................................................... 200

9.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................... 200 9.2 GENERATORS ........................................................................................... 200

9.2.1 General ....................................................................................... 200 9.2.2 Generator Protection................................................................... 201 9.2.3 Excitation System ....................................................................... 202 9.2.4 MV Switchgear............................................................................ 202

9.3 STEP - UP TRANSFORMER ...................................................................... 203 9.3.1 General ....................................................................................... 203 9.3.2 Transformer Rating ..................................................................... 204 9.3.3 Transformer Protection ............................................................... 204

9.4 132 kV SWITCHGEAR................................................................................ 205 9.4.1 General ....................................................................................... 205 9.4.2 Circuit Breakers .......................................................................... 205

9.5 LV INSTALLATION ..................................................................................... 206 9.5.1 11/0.4 kV Switchgear .................................................................. 206

9.5.1.1 Low Voltage Auxiliary Switchgear ............................ 206 9.5.1.2 Motor Control Centers.............................................. 206

9.5.2 Station Auxiliary Transformer...................................................... 206 9.5.3 Emergency Diesel Generating Set.............................................. 207 9.5.4 Battery and Battery Charger ....................................................... 207

9.6 ELECTRICAL AUXILIARIES ....................................................................... 208 9.6.1 Electrical Lighting........................................................................ 208 9.6.2 Fire Detection and Protection System ........................................ 208


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9.7 TRANSMISSION LINE ................................................................................ 208 9.7.1 Dispersal of Power...................................................................... 208 9.7.2 Transmission Line Route ............................................................ 209 9.7.3 Main Specifications of T/L Material ............................................. 209

9.7.3.1 Transmission Line Towers ....................................... 209 9.7.3.2 Conductor................................................................. 209 9.7.3.3 Insulators.................................................................. 209 9.7.3.4 Shield Wire............................................................... 209 9.7.3.5 Construction ............................................................. 209

10 INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EXAMINATION ......................................................... 211

10.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 211 10.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE OBJECTIVES OF PROPOSAL............................ 211

10.2.1 Land Use and Industrialisation.................................................... 212 10.2.2 Regulatory Framework- Industrialisation .................................... 212

10.2.2.1 Deregulation of the Economy................................... 212 10.2.2.2 Infrastructure Facilities ............................................. 212 10.2.2.3 Incentives ................................................................. 212

10.2.3 Environmental Legal Framework ................................................ 213 10.3 PAKISTAN ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACT (PEPA) 1997 ............ 213 10.4 GUIDELINES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT............................. 213 10.5 GUIDELINES FOR PUBLIC CONSULTATION........................................... 214 10.6 DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS................ 214

10.6.1 Existing (Baseline) Condition of the Biophysical and Socio-Economic Environment, Trends & Anticipated Future Environmental Conditions ........................................................... 214

10.6.2 Environmentally Sensitive Areas of Special or Unique Value..... 215 10.6.2.1 Physical Resources.................................................. 215 10.6.2.2 Ecological Resources............................................... 215

10.7 ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES ..................................................................... 216 10.7.1 Overview ..................................................................................... 216 10.7.2 Forests ........................................................................................ 216

10.7.2.1 Moist Deodar Forests............................................... 217 10.7.2.2 Western Mixed Coniferous Forest............................ 217 10.7.2.3 Reserve Forests....................................................... 217 10.7.2.4 Medicinal Plants ....................................................... 217 10.7.2.5 Vegetation in the Weir Area ..................................... 218 10.7.2.6 Vegetation at Powerhouse Area .............................. 218

10.8 NATURAL FAUNA ...................................................................................... 219 10.8.1 Mammals .................................................................................... 219 10.8.2 Reptiles and Amphibians ............................................................ 219 10.8.3 Insects, Butterflies and Vectors .................................................. 219 10.8.4 Birds and Fowl (Avifauna) Communities..................................... 220 10.8.5 Aquatic Ecology .......................................................................... 220

10.9 PROTECTED AREAS ................................................................................. 221 10.9.1 Overview ..................................................................................... 221 10.9.2 National Parks............................................................................. 221 10.9.3 Wildlife Parks .............................................................................. 221 10.9.4 Wildlife Sanctuaries .................................................................... 222 10.9.5 Private Game Reserves.............................................................. 222

10.10 QUALITY OF LIFE ...................................................................................... 222 10.10.1 Socio-Economic Values .............................................................. 222


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10.11 EVALUATION OF IMPACTS AND MITIGATION MEASURES................... 223 10.12 BASELINE ENVIRONMENTAL DATA / STATUS ....................................... 224

10.12.1 Noise........................................................................................... 224 10.12.2 Ambient Gases ........................................................................... 224 10.12.3 Particulate Matter........................................................................ 224 10.12.4 Water Quality .............................................................................. 224

10.13 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS..................................................................... 225 10.13.1 Impacts During Construction....................................................... 225

10.13.1.1 Air Quality................................................................. 225 10.13.1.2 Noise and Vibration.................................................. 225 10.13.1.3 Soils ......................................................................... 226 10.13.1.4 Waste ....................................................................... 226 10.13.1.5 Construction Spoil .................................................... 226 10.13.1.6 Use of Hazardous and Toxic Materials .................... 227 10.13.1.7 Layout of Construction Camps, Workshops and

Labour ...................................................................... 227 10.13.1.8 Water Use / Quality .................................................. 227

10.13.2 Impacts During Operation ........................................................... 228 10.13.2.1 Air............................................................................. 228 10.13.2.2 Greenhouse Gases .................................................. 228 10.13.2.3 Noise ........................................................................ 228 10.13.2.4 Water Quality ........................................................... 229 10.13.2.5 Compensation Water ............................................... 229 10.13.2.6 Impact on Microclimate ............................................ 230

10.14 BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS.............................................................................. 230 10.14.1 Biological Impacts During Construction ...................................... 230

10.14.1.1 General Impacts on Flora......................................... 230 10.14.1.2 General Impacts on Fauna....................................... 231 10.14.1.3 Impacts on Aquatic Life............................................ 232 10.14.1.4 Construction Spoil .................................................... 232

10.15 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS................................................................... 232 10.15.1 Involuntary Resettlement of Project Affected People.................. 232 10.15.2 Employment Generation During Construction Phase ................. 232 10.15.3 Cultural Heritage and Archaeology ............................................. 233 10.15.4 Recreation Activities ................................................................... 233

10.16 IMPACT IDENTIFICATION FOR OPERATIONAL PHASE......................... 233 10.16.1 Electricity Generation.................................................................. 233 10.16.2 Employment Generation During Operational Phase................... 233 10.16.3 Provision of Associated Facilities................................................ 234 10.16.4 Agricultural Impacts .................................................................... 234 10.16.5 Landscape and Visual Amenity................................................... 234

10.17 ENVIRONMENT MANAGEMENT PLAN, ENVIRONMENTAL MITIGATION MEASURES, MONITORING PLAN, SOCIAL MANAGEMENT PLAN AND PROPOSED TRAINING.............................................................................. 235 10.17.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 235 10.17.2 Organisation and Implementation ............................................... 235 10.17.3 Resettlement Action Plan (RAP)................................................. 236

10.17.3.1 Resettlement Principles and Objectives................... 236 10.18 PUBLIC CONSULTATIONS........................................................................ 237 10.19 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 237


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11 COST ESTIMATES................................................................................................. 239 11.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 239 11.2 ESTIMATION OF QUANTITIES.................................................................. 239 11.3 UNIT RATES ............................................................................................... 240 11.4 ESTIMATION OF PROJECT COSTS ......................................................... 241 11.5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT MITIGATION COST...................................... 242 11.6 CIVIL WORKS............................................................................................. 242 11.7 ELECTRICAL AND MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT....................................... 243 11.8 TRANSPORTATION AND SHIPMENT ....................................................... 243 11.9 ERECTION, COMMISSION AND TESTING CHARGES ............................ 243 11.10 ENGINEERING AND SUPERVISION ......................................................... 243 11.11 PROJECT DIRECTOR ADMINISTRATION ................................................ 244 11.12 IMPORT DUTIES ........................................................................................ 244 11.13 CONTINGENCIES ...................................................................................... 244 11.14 INTEREST DURING CONSTRUCTION...................................................... 244 11.15 TOTAL PROJECT COST ............................................................................ 244

12 CONSTRUCTION PLANNING ............................................................................... 247

12.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 247 12.2 CONSTRUCTION PLANNING .................................................................... 247 12.3 DESCRIPTION OF WORKS ....................................................................... 248

12.3.1 Preliminary Works....................................................................... 248 12.3.2 Site Installation and Mobilisation................................................. 249 12.3.3 Construction of Camps ............................................................... 249 12.3.4 Diversion Weir............................................................................. 249 12.3.5 Power Intake, Connecting Channel and Sandtrap...................... 250 12.3.6 Headrace Tunnel ........................................................................ 250 12.3.7 Surge Tank ................................................................................. 250 12.3.8 Pressure Shaft ............................................................................ 251 12.3.9 Access Tunnel to Cavern............................................................ 251 12.3.10 Powerhouse and Tailrace Tunnel ............................................... 251 12.3.11 Electro-Mechanical Equipment ................................................... 251

13 FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ............................................................ 253

13.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 253 13.2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 254

13.2.1 Methodology ............................................................................... 255 13.2.2 Thermal Power Plant Parameters............................................... 255 13.2.3 Fuel Cost..................................................................................... 256 13.2.4 Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Cost.................................... 256 13.2.5 Service Life ................................................................................. 257 13.2.6 Assumptions ............................................................................... 257

13.2.6.1 Discount Rate........................................................... 258 13.2.6.2 Standard Conversion Factor .................................... 259 13.2.6.3 Annual Energy Benefits............................................ 259 13.2.6.4 Project Economic Costs ........................................... 259

13.2.7 Result of the Thermal Equivalent................................................ 260 13.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 260

13.3.1 Capital Cost ................................................................................ 260 13.3.2 Capital Structure ......................................................................... 261

13.3.2.1 Local Currency Financing ........................................ 261 13.3.2.2 Foreign Currency Financing..................................... 261

13.3.3 Results of the Financial Analysis ................................................ 261


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13.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS............................................................................ 262 13.5 UNIT COSTS............................................................................................... 263 13.6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 263

14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................... 265

14.1 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 265 14.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 266


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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure - 1.1: Location Map Six (6) Hydropower Projects in AJ&K Figure - 3.1: Catchment Area of Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.2: Mean Monthly Temperature at Muzaffarabad Figure - 3.3: Mean Annual Temperature at Muzaffarabad Figure - 3.4: Annual Precipitation at Muzaffarabad Figure - 3.5: Mean Monthly Precipitation at Muzaffarabad Figure - 3.6: Yearly Rainfall at Dudhnial Figure - 3.7: Mean Monthly Rainfall at Dudhnial Figure - 3.8: Location Map of Hydrological Stations Figure - 3.9: Mean Annual Flows (m3/s) Neelum River at Muzaffarabad Figure - 3.10: Specific Flows - Neelum River at Muzaffarabad & Jagran River at Kundal

Shahi and Thunian Figure - 3.11: Specific Flows Curve Muzaffarabad vs Kundal Shahi Figure - 3.12: Mean Annual Flow - Kunhar River at Naran 1960-2000 Figure - 3.13: Specific Flows - Kunhar River at Naran and Jagran River at Kundal Shahi 1982-84 Figure - 3.14: Specific Flows Kunhar River at Naran and Jagran River at Kundal Shahi 1994-96 Figure - 3.15: Relationship between Specific Flows at Naran andKundal Shahi for

Summer Period Figure - 3.16: Relationship between Specific Flows at Naran and Kundal Shahi for

Winter Period Figure - 3.17: Estimated and Measured Flows of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi -1983 Figure - 3.18: Estimated and Measured Flows of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi -1995 Figure - 3.19: Mean Monthly Flows Jagran River at Kundal Shahi Figure - 3.20: Rating Curve - Nagdar Nullah at Gauge Site Figure - 3.21: Mean Monthly Flows Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.22: Mean Annual Flows Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.23: Flow Duration Curve for Average Year Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.24: Flow Duration Curve for Dry Year Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.25: Flow Duration Curve for Wet Year Nagdar Nullah Figure - 3.26: Gumble Extreme Value Type-I (Method of Moments) Figure - 3.27: Flood Estimation with Log Pearson Type-III Figure - 3.28: Flood Hydrograph at proposed Nagdar Weir Site Figure - 3.29: Sediment Rating Curve Figure - 4.1: Geological Map of NE Pakistan & AJK showing the Principal Trust,

Tectonic Units, Hazara-Kashmir and Nanga Parbat Santaxes Figure - 4.2: Geological Map of Neelum Valley and AJ&K Figure - 4.3 a): Rose Diagram Showing Stereographic Projection ofJoint Sets in Granitic

Gneiss Figure - 4.3 b): Rose Diagram Showing Stereographic Projection of Joint Sets in Schist Figure - 4.4 a): Rose Diagram Showing Location of Poles of Joint Sets in Granitic Gneiss Figure - 4.4 b): Rose Diagram Showing Stereographic Projection of Joint Sets in Granitic

Gneiss Figure - 4.5 a): Composite Pole Plot Showing Location of Joint Sets in Granitic Gneiss Figure - 4.5 b): Rose Diagram Showing Stereographic Projection of Joint Sets in Schist


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Figure - 4.6: Situation (red: investigated area, pink dot: Nagdar Hydropower Project 34.390820 N / 73.54591400E)

Figure - 4.7: Working Catalogue of Investigated area, Time Span: from 25 A.D until December 2008; White Circle - Site Location

(N: 34.390812 / E: 73.544914); for Data Source Figure - 4.8: Hypocenter Depths in the Working Catalogue (Cross-Section from South to North) Figure - 4.9: Tectonic map of North-Western Himalaya (Greco 1989) Figure - 4.10: Seismic Source Zones of Model 1 (Approx. 400x400 km Corresponding to Investigated Area); White Circle: Nagdar Project Site (34.390812 N / 73.545914 E) Figure - 4.11: Seismic Source Zones of Model 1, Project site (34.390812 N / 73.545914 E) Figure - 4.12: Regression for the source zone characteristic of Zone 1 of Model 1 Figure - 4.13: Regression for the Source Zone Characteristic of Zone 2 of Model 1 Figure - 4.14: Overview of activity of seismic source zones of Model 1 Figure - 4.15: Seismic Source Zones of Model 2, project site (34.390812 N / 73.545914 E) Figure - 4.16: Overview of activity of seismic source zones of Model 2 Figure - 4.17: PSHA for PGA (at Period of 0.03 s); 5% damping, Model Figure - 4.18 Presents the Results of Magnitude-Distance Deaggregation for an

Annual Probability of Exceedance of Approximately 1 / 10,000, 1 / 145, 1 / 145 and 1 / 2500.The Magnitude is Truncated at M = 5. Figure - 4.18: Deaggredation at the Amplitude 1.13 Representing an Annual Probability

of Exceedance of Approximately 1 / 10,000; Frequency = 100 Hz (at PGA), Model 1 Figure - 4.19: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 10,000; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.20: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 2500; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.21: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 475; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.22: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 145; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.23: Hazards by Seismic Source for PGA, Model 1 Figure - 4.24: DSHA for Fractile = 0.5; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.25: DSHA for Fractile = 0.84; 5% Damping, Model 1 Figure - 4.26: Deaggredation at the Amplitude 0.692 Representing an Annual

Probability of Exceedance of Approximately 1 / 10,000; Frequency = 100 Hz Figure - 4.27: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 10,000; 5% Damping, Model 2 Figure - 4.28: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 /

475; 5% damping, Model 2 Figure - 4.29: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 2500; 5% Damping, Model 2 Figure - 4.30: Uniform Hazard Spectra for an Annual Probability of Exceedance of 1 / 145; 5% Damping, Model 2 Figure - 4.31: Hazards by Seismic Source for PGA, Model 2 Figure - 4.32: Acceleration Response Spectra for Horizontal and Vertical Components

of MCE, Probability of Exceedance 1 / 10,000 years (5% Damping) Figure - 4.33: Acceleration Response Spectra for Horizontal and Vertical Components

of DBE, Probability of Exceedance 1 / 475 years (5% Damping).


xiv



Figure - 4.34: Acceleration Response Spectra for Horizontal and Vertical Components of OBE, Probability of Exceedance 1 / 145 years (5% Damping)

Figure - 4.35: Acceleration Response Spectra for Horizontal and Vertical Components, Probability of Exceedance 1 / 5000 years (5% Damping)




Figure - 6.1: Mean Monthly Flows at Proposed Nagdar Weir Site Figure - 6.2: NPV vs Design Run-off-River Base Case Figure - 6.3: Cost/kWh Run-off-River Base Case Figure - 6.4: B/C Ratio Run-off-River - Base Case Figure - 6.5: Estimated Mean Monthly Power Figure - 6.6: Estimated Mean Monthly Energy Figure - 8.1: Flow Duration Curve Figure - 8.2: Turbine Selection Chart


xv



LIST OF TABLES

Table - 1.1: Capacities and Location of Six Hydropower Projects as per TOR Table - 2.1: Bench Marks / Control Points Table - 2.2: Coordinates of Bench Marks / Control Points Table - 3.1: Long Term Climatic Stations in Jhelum River Basin Table - 3.2: Hydrological Stations with Long Term Records Table - 3.3: Specific Flows of Various Gauging Stations Table - 3.4: Low Flows at Nagdar Nullah Table - 3.5: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (May and June 2009) Table - 3.6: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (July and August 2009) Table - 3.7: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (September & October 2009) Table - 3.8: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (November & December 2009) Table - 3.9: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (January and February 2010) Table - 3.10: Daily Flow Data at Nagdar Nullah (March and April 2010) Table - 3.11: Measured and Estimated Flows at Nagdar Table - 3.12: Flow Duration Values Nagdar Nullah Table - 3.13: Extended Mean Monthly Flows at Nagdar Nullah Table - 3.14: Ratio of Specific Discharge (l/s/km2) at Jagran and Muzaffarabad of High Flow Period Table - 3.15: Flood at Nagdar Nullah in Different Return Periods Table - 3.16: Estimation of Flood with Log Pearson Method Table - 3.17: Comparison of Flood Estimates Table - 3.18: Partical Size Distribution Analysis at Nausehri (1991-1996) Table - 4.1: Discontinuity Survey Data of Nagdar Hydropower Project Table - 4.2: Source zone characteristics of Model 1 Table - 4.3: Source Zone Parameter of Model 2 Table - 4.4: Acceleration response spectra for MCE, DBE and OBE Table - 4.5: Acceleration Response Spectra for 5000, 2000, 2500 and 1000 Return

Pediods Table - 4.6: Rock Structure Rating System (After Bieniawski 1989) Table - 4.7: Rock Structure Rating System (After Bieniawski 1989) Table - 4.8: Rock Mass Rating System (After Bieniawski 1989) Table - 4.9: Rock Mass Rating System (After Bieniawski 1989) Table - 4.10: Guideline for Excavation in Support of 10m Span Rock Tunnels in

Accordance with the RMR System (After Bieniawski 1989) Table - 4.11: Classification of Individual Parameters used in the Tunneling Quality

Index, Q Table - 4.12: Classification of Individual Parameters used in the Tunneling Quality

Index, Q Table - 6.1: Comparison of Cost Table - 6.2: Normal Cost Run-off-River Option Table - 6.3: 10% Increased Cost Option Table - 6.4: Reduced Flows Option Table - 7.1: Water Level Profile Table - 7.2: Hydraulic Calculation for Overflow Weir Table - 7.3: Hydraulic Calculation for Undersluice Table - 7.4: Hydraulic Calculation for Sandtrap Table - 7.5: Hydraulic Calculation for Surge Tank


xvi



Table - 7.6: Hydraulic Calculations for Pressure Shaft Table - 8.1: Comparison of Basic Data Table - 8.2: Comparison of Basic Data Table - 8.3: Design Data Table - 11.1: Major Quantities of Civil Works Table - 11.2: Summary of Cost Estimates Table - 11.3: Deatiled Cost Estimates Table - 11.4: Cash Flow Table - 12.1: Implementation Schedule Table - 13.1: Economic Analysis Table - 13.2: Financial Analysis Table - 13.3: Sensitivity Analysis Table - 13.4: Cost per KWh and kW


a



ABBREVIATIONS


b



ABBREVIATIONS

- AZAD JAMMU AND KASHMIR AJ&K - HYDRO ELECTRIC BOARD HEB - AIR HANDLING UNITS AHUs - ALKALI SILICA REACTION ASR - ALTERNATING CURRENT AC - AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF STATE HIGHWAY AND AASHTO TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS - AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE AISI - AMERICAN SOCIETY OF HEATING, REFRIGERATION ASHRAE - AND AIR CONDITIONING ENGINEERS - AMERICAN STANDARD FOR TESTING AND MATERIALS ASTM - AMPERE A - ANGULAR BOULDER GRAVEL MATERIAL WITH ABGM APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF FINES - BENCH MARK BM - BENEFIT-COST RATIO B/C - COMPAGNIE FRANCAISE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT CFG DE LA GEOTHERMIE ET DES ENERGIES NOUVELLES - CONTROL POINT CP - CROSS LINKED POLYETHYLENE XLPE - CUBIC METER PER SECOND m3/s or cumec - DEGREE CELSIUS C - DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS DSHA - DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL DEM - DIRECT CURRENT DC - DRAWING Dwg - ECONOMIC INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN EIRR - ELECTROMAGNETIC DISTANCE MEASUREMENT EDM - ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL MANAGEMENT AND ESMMP MONITORING PLAN - ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN EMP - ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT UNIT EMU - ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY EPA - EUROPEAN MATERIAL HANDLING FEDERATION FEM - FINANCIAL INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN FIRR - FOREIGN COMPONENT FC - GENERAL TOPOGRAPHIC SHEET GT Sheet - GIGAWATT HOUR GWh - GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOOD GLOF - GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM GPS - HAZARA KASHMIR ASYNTAXIS HKS - HAZARA LOWER SEISMIC ZONE HLSZ - HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITIONING HVAC - HECTARE ha - HERTZ (Frequency) Hz


c



- HIMALAYAN FRONTAL THRUST HFT - HYDRO POWER PROJECT HPP - INDUS - KOHISTAN SEISMIC ZONE IKSZ - INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EXAMINATION IEE - INTEREST DURING CONSTRUCTION IDC - INTERNATIONAL ELECTRO-TECHNICAL COMMISSION IEC - JHELUM FAULT JF - KARACHI INTER-BANK OFFERED RATE KIBOR - KILO VOLT kV - KILOMETER km - KILOVOLT AMPERE kVA - KILOWATT HOUR kWh - LINE OF CONTROL LoC - LITERS PER SECOND PER SQUARE KILOMETER l / s / km2 - LITERS PER SECOND PER PERSON l /s / person - LITERS PER SECOND PER SQUARE METER l / s / m2 - LOCAL COMPONENT LC - LONDON INTER-BANK OFFERED RATE LIBOR - MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST MBT - MAIN CHAKWAL THRUST MCT - MAIN KARAKORRAM THURST MKT - MAIN MANTLE THRUST MMT - MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE MCE - MAXIMUM DESIGN EARTHQUAKE MDE - MEAN SEA LEVEL msl - MEGAVOLT AMPERE MVA - MEGAWATT MW - METER ABOVE SEA LEVEL m asl - METER PER SECOND m/s - METER m - MILLIMETER mm - NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER REGULATORY AUTHORITY NEPRA - NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY STANDARDS NEQS - NET PRESENT VALUE NPV - NET PRESENT WORTH NPW - NITROGEN OXIDES NOX - OIL NATURAL AIR FORCED ONAF - OIL NATURAL AIR NATURAL ONAN - OPERATING BASIC EARTHQUAKE OBE - OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE O&M - PAKISTANI RUPEES Pak. Rs. / PKR - PARTS PER MILLION ppm - PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION PGA - PEAK GRUOND VELOCITY PGV - PERCENT % - PLAIN CEMENT CONCRETE PCC - POLY VINYL CHLORIDE PVC


d



- POWER LINE CARRIER PLC - PROBABLISTIC SESMIC HAZARD AHALYSIS PSHA - PROJECT AFFECTED PEOPLE PAP - REINFORCED CEMENT CONCRETE RCC - RESIDUAL FURNACE OIL RFO - REVOLUTION PER MINUTE rpm - ROCK MASS RATING RMR - ROCK QUALITY DESIGNATION RQD - ROCK STRUCTURE RATING RSR - ROUNDED BOULDER GRAVEL MATERIAL WITH RBGM APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF FINES - SALT RANGE THRUST SRT - SANDSTONE SS - SHUTTLE RADAR TOPOGRAPHY MISSION SRTM - SILICON CONTROLLED RECTIFIER SCR - SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESMENT SIA - SQUARE KILOMETER km2 - STANDARD BENCH MARK SBM - STANDARD CONVERSION FACTOR SCF - SULFUR HEXAFLOURIDE SF6 - SULPHUR OXIDES SOX - SUPERVISORY CONTROL AND DATA ACQUISITION SCADA - SURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY PROJECT SWHP - SURVEY OF PAKISTAN SOP - TERMS OF REFERENCE TOR - THYRISTOR CONTROLLED RECTIFIER TCR - TRANSMISSION LINE T/L - UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY USGS - UNITED STATES DOLLAR US $ - UNIVERSAL TRANSVERSE MERCATOR UTM - WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY WAPDA - WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY WAPDA-GTZ IN COLLABORATION WITH GERMAN AGENCY FOR TECHNICAL COOPERATION - WORLD GEODETIC SYSTEM WGS - ZANSKAR SHEAR ZONE ZSZ


e



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


f



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. PROJECT LOCATION

The proposed Nagdar hydropower project is identified in the lower 6 km stretch of Nagdar nullah, near Keran village in the Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir in Pakistan. Nagdar nullah is a right bank tributary of Neelum River located in Neelum district with its confluence located about 92 km North East of Muzaffarabad city. The project layout has been planned on the right bank of Nagdar nullah with diversion weir intake, sandtrap, low pressure headrace tunnel, surge shaft, pressure shaft and pressure tunnel leading to underground powerhouse. The tailrace will be free flow tunnel. An access tunnel is provided for handling of plant and equipment transportation to the powerhouse.

The weir intake is proposed 200 m downstream of Shelyath Nar while the powerhouse near Danjar village about 4 km downstream of Nagdar nullah confluence with Neelum River. The coordinates and elevations of weir and powerhouse are listed below.

Site Latitude Longitude Elevation

(m asl)

Weir 34 41 18 73 54 20 1950

Powerhouse 34 39 09 73 55 00 1480

The project area is accessible from Muzaffarabad via main Neelum road up to Keran village. The weir site is accessible by jeepable road leading to Neelum village then following along the Nagdar nullah. Nagdar valley from Keran village becomes inaccessible during winter months due to snowfall and the road leading to proposed weir site needs to be widened. Construction of bridge over Danjar nullah will also be required for an access to the powerhouse area and handling of plant and equipment.

2. HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENTATION

The mean monthly flows measured on Jagran River for short period and correlated with long term gauging station of Kunhar River at Naran. With four years data of Jagran River at Kundal Shahi, empirical equations have been developed and used for estimation of flows at Nagdar. The catchment area at Naran, Kundal Shahi and Nagdar weir site is 1036 km2, 430 km2 and 82 km2 respectively. A long term gauging station of Neelum River at Muzaffarabad was also checked but the correlation with smaller catchment like Kundal Shahi was not as appropriate as with Naran.


g



A gauge has been established at Nagdar nullah on April 26, 2009 and flow measurements have been carried out by the Consultants. Low flows observation at Nagdar nullah by SWHP, WAPDA were carried out in past years. The estimated and observed flows are matching and considered realistic comparing specific flows at Kundal Shahi and Thunian on Jagran River. The estimated mean monthly flows are graphically presented in the following Figure.

The mean monthly flows vary from 1.07 to 14.68 m3/s with mean annual value of 5.44 m3/s. The design flood for weir is taken as 204 m3/s for a return period of 1000 year.

Long term data available at nearest hydrological station Nausehri, has been considered to assess the suspended and bed sediment load at Nagdar Hydropower Project by developing a relationship between flows and sediment concentration in ppm as given below.

Y = 1.881X0.841

Where Y = sediment concentration (PPM) X = discharge (m3/s)

The particle size distribution at the diversion site has also been estimated as stated below:

Sand 13% Silt 64% Clay 23 %


h



Sediment measurements at the proposed site should be arranged in future to strengthen this estimate and to take necessary measures in designing the scheme so that the flows to the powerhouse carry the minimum sediments.

3. TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEYS

With the commencement of studies, control points / bench marks were established along the stretch of interest of Nagdar nullah. A longitudinal profile survey was carried out to estimate the head available for power generation. Thus a detailed topographic survey has been carried out in the area of all important structures of the scheme. Topographic survey has been carried out for weir area and surge to powerhouse and tailrace area. A total area of 88 hectares was surveyed by traversing with EDM. All the data was computerized and maps of appropriate scales with 2 m contour interval were derived. Topographic maps for tunnel alignment, covering area of 185 hectares, have been prepared with help of high resolution satellite images and digital elevation model.

4. GEOLOGY

Rocks of metamorphic origin are exposed at weir site in Nagdar valley with thin cover of morainic material comprising of angular boulders and gravel with sand and appreciable amount of fines. Phyllites and schists are major rock types in the Nagdar valley. The headrace tunnel alignment shall apparently pass through in the rocks comprising of schists and granitic gneiss with igneous intrusions at places.

It is envisaged that no major problem is expected during the process of tunnel excavation. The surge tank and pressure shaft would be excavated in rocks comprising mainly of granitic gneiss (metamorphic). The rocks are moderately weathered and sparsely jointed. The powerhouse proposed as underground structure near Danjar village will be excavated in sound rock like granodiorites, phyllites and schists. The downstream portion of initial 150 m portion of tailrace would be in soft rock while the later portion to powerhouse would be in sound rock.

A sub-surface investigation plan was recommended by the Consultants which will be conducted through third party. The investigation plan includes sub-surface drilling and laboratory testing. The data so obtained will be utilised for detailed designing of the structures involved in the project.

Construction materials do not pose any problem. Cement and steel are locally manufactured in the country. The aggregates (sand and gravel) are abundantly available at site or can be manufactured by processing the required excavations.


i



5. PROJECT LAYOUT AND POWER POTENTIAL

The power and energy has been optimised considering the project benefits and cost. The project net benefits are maximum for a design discharge of 9 m3/s. With design discharge and net head of about 464 m, the installed capacity would be 35 MW and it would generate annual energy of 146.05 GWh with the plant factor 47.64%.

6. CIVIL STRUCTURES

The whole project layout would be located on the right bank of Nagdar nullah. The weir is ungated over flow structure with an undersluice for the sediment flushing. The weir has been planned with crest elevation at 1956 m asl, about 5.6 km upstream of confluence of Nagdar nullah with Neelum River. A design discharge of 9 m3/s would be diverted through surface sandtrap and 3840 m low pressure headrace tunnel would lead towards Danjar village. Headrace tunnel would be shotcrete lined with diameter of 3.1 m.

The surge shaft would be located at the end of headrace tunnel and before start of pressure tunnel. A 680 m long pressure shaft including pressure tunnel with 2.1 m diameter would connect with underground powerhouse. The turbine axis is proposed at 1486 m asl. Tailrace tunnel would be free flow, 537 m long and a 25 m long tailrace channel would discharge outflows into Danjar nuallh. An access tunnel of about 505 m is provided for handling of plant and equipment.


j



7. ELECTRO-MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT

Four number of Horizontal Pelton turbines, each with a capacity of 8.75 MW have been proposed with following parameters:

Total Number of Units : 4 Type of Turbine : Pelton, 2 jet Design Head : 464 m Rated Speed (n) : 600 rpm

The powerhouse will be equipped with auxiliary mechanical equipment for smooth operation as well as maintenance. Four generators, each of 10.30 MVA have been proposed. Power factor would be 0.85 and generation will be at 11 kV. Each generator will be feeding to one step up transformer of 10/13 MVA capacity. The power would be transmitted through 132 kV lines to a new grid station at Authmuqam and then to Muzaffarabad grid station.

8. PROJECT COST AND ECONOMIC / FINANCIAL VIABILITY

Based on estimated quantities and updated unit rates that project cost including transportation, erection, engineering and supervision, project administration, import charges including interest during construction has been worked as PKR 5688.959 million with foreign exchange component of PKR 3448.102 million. The cost for civil works has been estimated as PKR 2383.651 million; whereas, cost for electro-mechanical equipment is PKR 1176.506 million. The price index has been taken as of May 2010 with foreign currency exchange rate of 1.00 US$ = Rs. 85.0. The proposed project would require a period of 48 months for implementation.

The estimated cost of the project would produce cheap energy with tariff of Rs. 6.496/kWh. This hydropower scheme is an economically viable with EIRR and FIRR as 27.78% and 14.30% respectively and with B/C of 1.75 to meet the local area power demand and to connect it with National grid at low rate tariff.

9. ENVIRONMENT

On the basis of the field findings during the Initial Environmental and Social Impact Examination study, it can be concluded that the proposed Nagdar Hydropower Project will not have any significant adverse impacts on the local population or any segment of the environment provided the mentioned recommendations and mitigation measures suggested in study are fully implemented during construction and by the plant management in letter and spirit.


k



SALIENT FEATURES


l



SALIENT FEATURES

NAGDAR HYDROPOWER PROJECT

1 GENERAL

Project Location About 92 km from Muzaffarabad city, on right bank of Nagdar nullah which is a right tributary of Neelum River

2 HYDROLOGY

Catchment Area at Weir Site 82 km2 Mean Annual Flow 5.44 m3/s Design Discharge 09 m3/s Designed Flood (1000 years) 204 m3/sec

3 TOPOGRAPHY

Gross Head 470 m Net Head 464 m

4 CIVIL STRUCTURES

4.1 DIVERSION WEIR

Type of Intake Lateral Intake Height above River Bed 6 m Length of the Crest 14 m Crest Elevation 1956.0 m asl Length of Weir 14 m Type of Stilling Basin Roller Bucket

4.2 CONNECTING CHANNEL

Cross Section (Internal) 2.5 m x 2.3 m, RCC Velocity 2.19 m/s Length of the Channel 40 m

4.3 SANDTRAP

Number of Chambers 2 Clear Width of each Chamber 4 m Length of Chamber 54 m


m



4.4 HEADRACE TUNNEL

Cross Section (Internal) 2.8 m x 3.1 m Type of Section Horse Shoe Length of the Tunnel 3840 m Lining Partially Lined

4.5 SURGE TANK

Diameter 6 m Depth 32 m

4.6 PRESSURE SHAFT AND PRESSURE TUNNEL

Diameter 2.1 m Length 680 m

4.7 POWERHOUSE

Type Cavern Length 62.6 m Width 14.6 m Height 18 m Access Tunnel 505 m Tailrace Tunnel 537 m Tailrace Channel 25 m

5 ELECTRO-MECHANICAL

Type of Turbine Pelton with Horizontal Axis, 600 rpm No. of Units Four (04) Installed Capacity 35 MW Firm Power (95 % of time) 3.4 MW Annual Energy Generated 146.05 GWh Plant Factor 47.64 % Generation Voltage 11 kV Voltage of Dispatch 132 kV


n



6 COST AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY

Project Cost (With Trans+IDC) US$ 66.929 million Foreign Components US$ 40.566 million Project Economical IRR 27.78% Project Financial IRR 14.30% Benefit / Cost Ratio 1.75 Unit Cost (US cent/ kWh) 7.643 Unit Cost (Rs./ kWh) 6.496

7 CONSTRUCTION PERIOD

Preliminary Works One (1) Year Construction of Civil and

E&M Works Four (4) Years


1



1 INTRODUCTION


2



1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

Neelum River is a right bank tributary of Jhelum River with its confluence at Domel in Muzaffarabad. Neelum River is fed by a network of major tributaries on its right bank along its stretch from Taobut to Muzaffarabad. These tributaries generally run in North to South direction with catchment areas ranging from 80 to 400 km2. Gagai Nar, Shounter nullah, Janawahi nullah, Surgan nullah, Dowarian nullah, Luat nullah and Nagdar nullah are major tributaries. High specific discharge and steep gradient of the main river as well as that of its tributaries offer promising hydropower sites in the valley. A number of potential hydropower sites were identified on the lower part of the catchments; whereas, the sites on the upper catchment are yet to be identified and firmed up.

Hydro Electric Board (HEB) of the Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K) has signed a Consultancy Agreement in November 2008 with M/s Fida Hussain Chaudhary FHC Consulting Engineers, Lahore in association with M/s Scott Wilson Limited of United Kingdom and M/s Electra Consultants, Peshawar. The scope of services includes the preparation of the feasibility study reports, detailed technical / engineering designs, tender documents and preparation of the site investigation documents for the six (6) high head medium sized hydropower sites namely; Nagdar, Luat, Dowarian, Shounter, Janawahi and Taobut. All of these sites are located on the right bank of Neelum River in District Neelum.

The three sites; namely Nagdar, Luat and Dowarian were identified earlier by a French Firm CFG in 1986, while the remaining three sites were identified by Hydro Electric Board of the Government of Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir as mentioned in the Terms of Reference (TOR). During the preliminary site identification studies; the name of the schemes where the sites have been identified, their approximate locations from Muzaffarabad and the preliminary estimated installed capacities are given as under:

Table - 1.1: Capacities & Location of Six Hydropower Projects as per TOR

Sr. No. Site Estimated Capacity

as per TOR Distance from Muzaffarabad

1 Nagdar 18 MW 92 km 2 Luat 25 MW 95 km 3 Dowarian 35 MW 105 km 4 Shounter 20 MW 160 km 5 Janawahi 05 MW 175 km 6 Taobut 05 MW 185 km


3



The location map of the schemes is shown in the Figure - 1.1.

Figure - 1.1: Location Map Six (6) Hydropower Projects in AJ&K

LOCATION MAP

Nagdar

Luat

Dowarian

Janawahi Shounter Taobut


4



Nagdar and Luat sites are in the close vicinity of Line of Control (LOC) between Pakistan and India, while the other sites are located at quite a distance to it. Nagdar and Luat are located close to Keran village, which is a historical village divided by the Line of Control.

1.2 SCOPE OF WORK

As per the Terms of Reference, the Consultants have to accomplish the following main tasks during the study.

Review of the existing data and reports; Carry out topographic survey and other fieldwork to investigate the

physical and geological environment of potential site;

Hydrological, sediment and power potential studies; Develop alternative layout plans of the scheme; Select the optimal configuration of the components of the scheme; Power dispersal / transmission system plan; Undertake environmental and social impact assessment; Prepare realistic cost estimates and evaluate the economic and

financial performance;

Prepare implementation programme; Prepare detailed and comprehensive Feasibility Study Reports,

Detailed Designs / Drawings and Tender Documents.

1.3 NAGDAR HYDROPOWER PROJECT

1.3.1 Location

The project area is located on the lower part of Nagdar nullah near Keran village in Neelum valley approximately 92 km from Muzaffarabad. The project location is shown in Dwg. No. 1-1 and accessibility to the project area is shown in Dwg. No. 1-2.

The coordinates of weir and powerhouse site are listed below:

Site Latitude Longitude Elevation

(m asl)

Weir 34 41 18 73 54 20 1950

Powerhouse 34 39 09 73 55 00 1480


5



The proposed project site has been identified in the lower 6 km stretch of Nagdar nullah. The nullah has an estimated catchment area of about 91 km2, located between elevations 1508 m asl and 4760.9 m asl in the North East of Neelum village. Nagdar nullah has perennial flows arising out of the snow and glacial melt.

1.3.2 Salient Features

Nagdar Hydropower Project was identified as run-off-river scheme with design discharge available in summer months. The project would be connected to National grid, therefore the project has been planned to its optimum capacity.

The weir intake has been proposed about 200 m downstream the confluence of Shelyath Nar with Nagdar nullah and powerhouse would be underground near Danjar village. The project layout has been proposed on the right bank of Nagdar nullah with surface sandtrap, low pressure tunnel, surge tank, pressure shaft, underground powerhouse and tailrace tunnel. The water would be discharged into Danjar nullah, a small right bank tributary of Neelum River, located 3 km downstream of Keran village.

The salient features of the project area are as under:

Design Capacity = 35 MW Design Discharge = 9 m3/sec Gross Head = 470 m Mean Annual Energy = 146.05 GWh Plant Factor = 47.64% Low Pressure Headrace Tunnel = 3840 m Headrace tunnel diameter = 3.1 m Pressure Shaft Length = 420 m Pressure Tunnel Length = 260 m Pressure Shaft and Diameter = 2.1 m Tailrace Length = 537 m No. & Type of Units = 4 Pelton turbines, 600 rpm


6



1.4 ACCESSIBILITY TO THE PROJECT AREA

The project area is accessible from Muzaffarabad via main road running along Neelum River. The Line of Control (LoC) is close to the main road at Tithwal, Authmuqam and Keran village. The project area is accessible from Muzaffarabad city by metalled Neelum valley road up to Keran village, by a jeepable road to Neelum village and then to Nagdar nullah. The Nagdar valley road from Keran village onwards becomes quite inaccessible during winter months due to snowfall, and it also needs to be widened.

There is no road available along Nagdar nullah, as it has a steep gradient. However the Nagdar site can be accessed by rough jeepable track using 4 x 4 vehicles from Keran village or on foot along the Nagdar nullah. The road from Keran village leads to Neelum village and then crosses Nagdar nullah at about 3 km from its confluence with the Neelum River. The powerhouse area is accessible from Danjar nullah. From main road along Neelum River to the inlet of access tunnel, about 400 m road needs to be widened.

Transportation between Islamabad and Muzaffarabad city is possible by buses and trucks throughout the year. The road distance from Islamabad to Muzaffarabad via Murree and Kohala is 154 km. The road distance from Islamabad to Murree is 74 km and the road is wide, metalled and in very good condition. From Murree to Muzaffarabad, the road distance is about 80 km. From Islamabad to Muzaffarabad, a good condition car or jeep takes about 3 hours. Buses and trucks also travel at this high elevation road through Murree city. The road in Murree and Kohala areas has a number of short and sharp bends.

There is another route from Islamabad to Muzaffarabad via Abbottabad and Mansehra. The road is metalled and all types of vehicles can operate throughout the year. This route is relatively longer and passes over low height areas as compared with that of via Murree and Kohala. In case of snowfall or severe weather conditions, Abbotabad Mansehra route is used.

1.4.1 Route Distance

Karachi Docks to Rawalpindi The distance from Karachi to Lahore to Rawalpindi via National Highway is 1520 km.

Karachi to Islamabad (Motorway Entrance) The distance from Karachi to Lahore to Islamabad via Motorway up to junction of GT road with Islamabad road is1625 km.


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The transportation via Motorway, although 105 km longer, is recommended due to better road conditions as compared to route by National Highway.

From Rawalpindi / Islamabad to Muzaffarabad Road There are many sharp turns on this route in mountainous area of Murree and Kohala.

The distance via this route from Islamabad National Highway road crossing to Muzaffarabad is 154 km.

From Islamabad to Muzaffarabad via Abbotabad & Mansehra The distance from Islamabad road to Muzaffarabad is 182 km.

The condition of the road from Garhi Habibullah crossing with Mansehra Balakot road is not good. There are many sharp turns at entry to Muzaffarabad, and in Muzaffarabad the road passes through busy trade centres. These obstacles may be faced by the loaded ten wheelers on way to Muzaffarabad.

From Muzaffarabad to Keran Village in Neelum Valley The distance from Muzaffarabad to Keran village is 89 km.

The road condition from Muzaffarabad to Nausehri is generally quite poor. The road from Muzaffarabad to Authmuqam is being widened and the construction works are in progress. From Tithwal to Keran, the road condition is better than the downstream sections but it also requires improvement for transportation of heavy equipment.

1.5 COMMUNICATION

Muzaffarabad city, being central place of AJ&K has good communication services. There is postal and telegraph facilities. Telephone services for main places of AJ&K, main towns / cities of down country and internet services are available. Pakistan Television (PTV) and other regional channels can be seen via satellite.

As regards communication services, the district of Neelum with Headquarter at Authmuqam has postal and telephone services. The city is connected with international direct dialing system.


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Neelum valley is considered as remote area with respect to level of communication and accessibility. For transportation of the heavy equipment, railway broad gauge track from Karachi to Rawalpindi 1500 km can be considered. The remaining 236 km up to Keran village can be traveled on the Rawalpindi - Muzaffarabad road and then in Neelum valley to project area on truckable metalled road.

1.6 ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY

The electric power is supplied from nearby power station at Kundal Shahi and Jagran - I. There is no existing small power station in Nagdar nullah that can provide electric power for the Nagdar valley. Considering the population located on either banks of Nagdar nullah, the area needs to be connected with medium size power plant or with the National Grid.

1.7 PREVIOUS STUDIES

As stated earlier, Nagdar is one of the hydropower sites identified by a French firm CFG in 1986. The Consultants received a copy of report from HEB, named as Neelum valley Hydroelectric Development Program, Feasibility Report prepared in February 1989.

The report covers four potential sites namely; Nagdar, Luat, Dowarian and Jagran studied at identification level. Some preliminary site investigations like hydrologic observations, field survey, geological mapping and laboratory testing were carried out.

The Consultants reviewed the CFG report and observed the following:

The project location and project layout is not indicated on any map. The location of weir and powerhouse is not described even in the text. The field investigations, topographic survey and hydrologic

observations carried out for identified layout has not been appended in the report.

One general flow duration curve for tributaries of Neelum River was prepared and included in the report. The basis of design discharge selection is not mentioned.

The project layout is proposed with headrace tunnel, penstock and surface powerhouse. Nagdar nullah confluence with Neelum River is located close to Line of Control where surface structures are not safe.

Headrace tunnel diameter has been proposed as 2.5 m. The execution of 2.5 m diameter and 2.584 km long tunnel is practically very difficult and would be costly.


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The project cost was estimated as Rs. 430 million (~US $ 24.0 million) to generate 10.7 MW. Estimated IRR = 19%.

As the study was carried out before construction of 30.5 MW Jagran-I, therefore the field information about hydrological and geological data was limited. Presently, there is need to improve the field information and optimize the capacity of the scheme.

The Consultants identified the present project layout of Nagdar Hydropower Project to achieve the following objectives:

The project layout with technically sound weir and powerhouse location; The project layout should be optimized to transmit surplus power to

main load centres of AJ&K;

The project layout should be economical to develop; The project layout must be placed at safe location;

All necessary field data has been collected and presented in this report.

For comparison purpose the salient features of Nagdar Hydropower Project are compared as under:

Parameter As per

previous study (CFG)

As per present study by the Consultant

Gross Head 310 m 470 m

Net Head 295 m 464 m

Design Discharge 4.5 m3/s 9 m3/s

Installed Capacity 18 MW 35 MW

Length of Headrace Tunnel 2584 m 3840 m

Inside Diameter 2.5 m 3.1 m

Length of Penstock 528 m 680 m

Average Energy (April September) 71 GWh 127 GWh

Average Energy (October March) 24 GWh 19.05 GWh

Yearly Average Energy 95 GWh 146.05 GWh

Scott Wilson

Date post:	07-Mar-2016
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