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Nagpur Class- Project Management- Final

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    FUNDAMENTALS

    OFPROJECT MANAGEMENT

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    What is a Project?

    Temporary with a beginning and end

    Creates a unique product, service orresult

    Progressive elaboration

    Done for a purpose

    Has interrelated activities

    Temporary ;Unique;Progressive elaboration

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    Temporary

    Definite beginning and end End is reached when the project objectives

    have been achieved

    Market window

    Ad hoc team

    DEFINATION

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    Unique Something new

    no two projects are the same, some degree of customizationis there

    Size does not matter New airliner Bring a new drug to market

    Requires progressive elaboration Progressive

    Proceeding in steps Continuing steadily in increments

    Elaboration Worked out with care and detail Developed thoroughly

    Distinguishing characteristics first broadly defined will becomemore explicit and detailed as the team develops a betterunderstanding

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    Characteristics of a Project Conflict

    Project mgr. full of conflict; projectscompete with functional dept. forresources & people

    Project members conflicting forprojects resources & leadership roles insolving problems; deal with clients &

    org. Individuals conflict two bosses at the

    same time; different objectives &priorities

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    Characteristics of a Project

    Purpose Project

    usually a one-time activity with a set ofdesired end result

    can be divided into subtasks, which requiredcoordination & control

    Life Cycle Project life cycle

    slow beginning progress to a buildup of sizepeak begin decline finally must terminate

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    Characteristics of a Project

    Interdependencies Projects interact with other project being carried out

    simultaneously by parent org., but always interacts withthe parents standard, ongoing operations, etc.

    The patterns of interaction between functional dept.may change.

    e.g:

    Project mgr- keep these interactions clear & maintain

    Marketing

    Finance

    Manufacturing

    Finance

    Marketing

    Beginningofproject

    Intermediate of project End ofproject

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    Projects Vs Business ProcessTemporary has a

    beginning and an

    end

    Produces a uniqueoutput or

    deliverables

    Has no pre-definedwork assignment

    On going- thesame process isrepeated over andagain

    Produces the sameoutput each timethe process is run

    Has a predefinedwork assignment

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    Projects Vs Operations

    Projects Performed by

    people

    Constrained bylimited resources

    Planned,executed and

    controlledTemporary

    Unique

    Operations Performed by

    people

    Constrained bylimited resources

    Planned, executedand controlled

    Ongoing Repetitive

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    Programmes VsProgrammes Vs

    ProjectsProjects

    Programme is simply a collection ofseveral inter-related projects, each project

    in a programme has its own objectives and

    contributes to the objectives of the

    programme

    Projects are simply manageable

    components of a programme so arranged to

    meet the objectives of the programme

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    PROGRAM

    PROJECT2PROJECT1

    TASKS1

    ORK PACKAGES1

    TASKS2 TASKS1 TASKS2

    WORK PACKAGES1WORK PACKAGES2

    WORK UNITS1 WORK UNITS1WORK UNITS2WORK UNITS3

    WORK PACKAGES2

    WORK UNITS2

    A Project is:

    a unique set of coordinated activities, with definite starting and finishing

    points undertaken by an individual or organization to meet specific

    objectives within defined schedule, cost ad performance parameters

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    INTRODUCTION TO PROJECTMANAGEMENT

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    Project Management

    Application of skills tools and techniquesto meet or exceed

    stakeholders expectations while using

    resources efficiently &effectively and meeting projectrequirements

    Establishing clear and achievableobjectives

    Balancing the competing demands for

    quality, scope, time andcost.

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    Managing a Project

    includes: Identifying the requirements

    Establishing clear and achievable

    objectives Balancing the competing demands for

    quality, scoop, time, and cost

    Adapting specifications, plans, andconcerns of the stakeholders

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    Who is a stakeholder? Project manager

    Customer

    Performing organization

    Sponsor

    Team

    Internal/external

    End user

    Society, citizens

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    Need of Project

    Management Projects worth billions of rupeesundertaken every year. Effectivemanagement has bearing on overall

    growth of national economy. Experience with regard to project

    management is mixed. Someprojects completed before time andmost others completed with time andcost overrun.

    Time, resource, cost management

    are sine-qua-non of project

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    Advantages of ProjectManagement

    Better control & better customer relationsShorter development times, lower costs,

    higher quality & reliability, higher profitmargins

    Sharper orientation towards results, betterinterdepartmental coordination & higherworker morale

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    Disadvantages of Project Management

    Increased organizational complexity Increase the likelihood that organizational policy being

    violated project mgr being autonomous Higher costs, management difficulties, low personnel

    utilization PM is difficult even when everything goes well - whatmore if things go badly

    Project organization is the only feasible way toaccomplish certain goals - literally not possible to

    design & build a major weapon system in a timely &economically acceptable manner, except throughproject organization i.e. applying PM tools

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    Why ProjectsFail

    Lack of user involvement

    Lack of management system

    Lack of well-defined deliverables

    Poor communications

    Poor change management Incorrect technical architecture

    Inadequate planning

    Lack of sponsorship & functional

    commitment Inability to manage risk and

    uncertainty

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    Management Processes

    Planning

    Organising

    Leading Controlling

    Planning

    Organising

    Leading

    Controlling

    The POLC ModelThe POLC Model

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    Defined Life Cycles

    Concept

    Planning

    Execution

    Termination

    Effort

    Cost

    St f P j t M t

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    Stages of Project ManagementMaturity

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    Project Initiation

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    DeliverablesReview

    LessonsLearned

    PostImplementation

    ProjectCompletion

    Manage Cost,Schedule,

    Resource Variance

    ControlChanges

    ManagePerformance toRequirements

    ManageRisk

    PhaseAssessment

    Manage andControl Project

    Project Request

    Project Start Up

    Project Charter

    PhaseAssessment

    Manage TechnicalPerformance

    Control Changes

    Manage ProjectTeam

    Manage Quality/Performing toRequirements

    Manage Risk

    PhaseAssessment

    Closing

    Detailed Project LifeCycle

    Review ProjectRequirements

    BuildProject Team

    Conduct ProjectKickoff Meeting

    Baseline ProjectPlan

    PhaseAssessment

    Develop ProjectPlan

    Initiating Planning ControllingExecuting

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    Project Initiation

    Project Request Scope and objectives

    Business case

    Preliminary resource estimates

    Review & Authorization

    Requests prioritized and funded

    Project Charter

    Developed after requestapproval

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    The Project Charter

    PurposeRecognizes existence of the

    project

    Describes the project at a highlevel

    Explains the business need forproject

    Authorizes use of resources forplanning

    Organization and timing

    Completed after an approvedro ect re uest

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    The Project Charter

    Content Project description

    Business background

    Project scope

    Objectives (ROI if notin request)

    Deliverables

    Constraints Assumptions

    Planning budget

    Typical Participants Business Area

    Manager

    Project Manager

    Steering Committee

    Core Project Team

    Others if relevant

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    Project Planning

    Purpose: to determine

    What needs to bedone

    Who will be involvedHow objectives will be

    met

    When it will be

    implementedHow much it will cost

    Project Plan

    Statement of Work

    Project Organization

    Work BreakdownStructure

    Schedule

    Resource

    requirementsStandards and

    Procedures

    Communications

    Risk Management

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    ProjectPlanning

    Integration Management Scope Management

    Time Management

    Cost Management

    Quality Management

    Resource Management Environment

    Participants

    Tools

    Communications Management

    Risk Management

    Procurement Management

    Planning includes forecast of resource requirements of

    people, materials and equipment, forecast of financialrequirements and provision of milestones againstwhich progress can be measured.

    All project management expertise areas are needed inplanning:

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    Plan should

    provide information in a readily understood form.

    be realistic.

    be flexible.

    serve as a basis for progress monitoring thecontrol.

    be comprehensive.

    PlanningPrinciples

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    Whole set of activities to be identified( work break down

    structure)

    Activities to be arranged in correct order or logicalsequence

    Approaches for time estimates based on sound resource

    planning-Deterministic where previous experience is available( CPM)

    -Probabilistic where no experience available oruncertainty (PERT)

    - Time estimates are made for each activity on athree-way basis:

    -Optimistic time

    -Most Likely time

    Work Planning

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    Bar Charts also known as Gantt charts. Network analysis by Critical Path Method (CPM) or Programme

    Evaluation & Review Technique(PERT)

    provides a means to predict time required for completion

    identifies activities whose execution is crucial(criticalactivities)

    serves as guide for shortening if completion is to beadvanced

    provide basis for scheduling of subcontractor&materialdelivery

    serve basis for scheduling of manpower,finance &equipment

    makes possible rapid evaluation of alternative const.Methods

    PlanningTechniques

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    Project plan development

    Project plan execution

    Integrated change management

    Processes required to ensure that the various

    elements of the project are properlycoordinated:

    Integration Management

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    Scope Management

    Initiation

    Scope planning Scope definition

    Scope verification

    Scope change control

    Processes required to ensure that the projectincludes all of the work required, and only the

    work required, to complete the projectsuccessfully:

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    Time Management

    Activity identification

    Activity sequencing Activity duration

    Estimating

    Schedule development

    Schedule control

    Processes required to ensure timely

    completion of the project:

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    Cost Management

    Financial resourceplanning

    Cost estimating

    Cost budgeting Cost control

    Processes required to ensure that the project is

    completed within the approved budget:

    Task Hours Rate Cost

    Project

    Management

    200 (1 person @2hrs a wk for 100

    wks)

    40 8000

    Requirements

    150 (10 people @1 hrs a wk for 12wks + 1 person for30 hrs)

    35 5250

    Design 320 (1 person @40 hrs a wk for 8wks)

    40 12800

    Development

    640 (2 people @40 hrs a wk for 8

    wks)

    30 19200

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    Resource Budgeting

    Task Hours Rate Cost

    Project

    Management

    200 (1 person @ 2hrs a wkfor 100 wks)

    40 8000

    Requirements 150 (10 people @ 1 hrs awk for 12 wks + 1 personfor 30 hrs)

    35 5250

    Design 320 (1 person @ 40 hrs awk for 8 wks)

    40 12800

    Development 640 (2 people @ 40 hrs awk for 8 wks)

    30 19200

    Testing 480 (3 people @ 40 hrs awk for 4 wks)

    30 14400

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    Quality Management

    Chartering

    Quality planning

    Quality assessment

    Quality control

    Processes required to ensure that the project willsatisfy the needs for which it was undertaken:

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    Organizational planningTeam recruitment

    Team development

    Processes required to make the most effective useof the people involved with the project:

    HR Management

    Communications

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    CommunicationsManagement

    Communications planning

    Information distribution

    Performance reporting Administrative closure

    Processes required to ensure timely and appropriategeneration, collection and dissemination, storage and

    ultimate disposition of project information:

    Audience Who needs toknow?

    Message What do theyneed to know?

    Intent Why do theyneed to know?

    Media How are theygoing to know?

    Timeframe When arethey going to know?

    Responsibilities Who isdelivering the message?

    Goals:

    No surprises

    Up and down thechain

    Repetition,

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    Risks and Constraints

    Constraints are known in advance budget

    schedule

    people

    the real world

    facilities and equipment

    Constraints should be well-documented in the SOWas part of the scope statement

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    Risk management planning

    Risk identification Qualitative Risk Analysis

    Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Risk response planning

    Risk monitoring and control

    Processes required to systematically identify,

    analyze, and respond to project risks:

    Risk Management

    Reactive managing surprises,

    putting out fires Proactive risk avoidance, buyoff riskRisk management

    Identify it

    Analyze it Plan for it (mitigation planning)

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    Types of Risk

    All of the risks in a project are either: known risks

    predictable risks

    unpredictablerisks

    l definitions of risk involve two characteristic1)Uncertainty: an event may or may not happen

    2)Loss: an event has unwanted consequences or

    losses

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    Basics of Risk Management

    Identify the risks Analyse probabilityand impact

    Determine the

    importance Agree high risk list

    Documentresponse plan

    Accept the riskAvoid the risk

    Monitor and develop contingency planTransfer the risk

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    Procurement planning

    Solicitation planning

    Source selection

    Contract administration

    Contract close-out

    Processes required to acquire goods and servicesfrom outside the performing organization:

    Procurement Management

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    Change Management

    A set of formal procedures that provide for the orderly control ofchange in

    a dynamic environment:

    Addedfunctionality

    Incorrectassumption

    Imposed delays

    New standards /practices

    Environmentalterations

    Extended approval

    times

    Change includes:

    Change management does not prohibit or inhibitchange!!

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    Departure from the estimated project cost is known as variance(not the statistical variance).

    Called unfavorable if planned amount exceeded favorable if lesscost incurred than planned

    Variance analysis is to be done for each activity in the network,where cost overrun occurs and they are to be done separatelyfor the

    (i) Use of resources (such as material & labor)

    (ii) Prices of the above resources.

    This enables to pinpoint actual cause of cost overrun for takingcorrective action or any further misuse of any resources

    Variance Analysis

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    CONFLICT RESOLUTION

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    Why do Projects Fail?

    Hughes (1986) identified three mainreasons for projects failing.a lack of understanding of project

    management tools and an over relianceon project management software

    communication problemsfailure to adequately adjust to changes

    that occur during the course of theproject

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    Change and Conflict

    Successful Projects bring about ChangeThe forces within an organisation that resist change are:

    Personal Many people resist change!

    Organisational Structures and System may not suitthe Changes that are beingintroduced

    Environmental The culture, values and beliefs may beturned on theirhead.

    Complexity and /or

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    Project Management

    Complexity and /orUnfamiliarity

    Complex projects will have a number ofactivities running in parallel.

    Some parts of the project will need other

    parts of the project to be completedbefore they can begin or progress.

    Some projects will require a feasibilitystage before the completion of adetailed plan.

    Project Contingency

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    Project ContingencyPlanningPlanning for and anticipating the unforeseen, orthe possibility that things may not go as expected,is called 'contingency planning'.

    Contingency planning is vital in any task when

    results and outcomes cannot be absolutelyguaranteed.

    Often a contingency budget needs to be plannedas there are usually costs associated.

    Contingency planning is about preparing fall-back actions, and making sure that leeway fortime, activity and resource exists to rectify or

    replace first-choice plans.

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    Conflict Resolution

    Ensure Buy in from core stakeholders

    Participation and active support from allstakeholders

    Communicate At the end of your successful project hold a review

    with the team. Ensure you understand what happened and why. Reflect on any failures and mistakes positively,

    objectively, and without allocating personal blame. Reflect on successes gratefully and realistically.

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    The Transition Curve

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    Work Breakdown Structure

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    DefinitionA WBS displays and defines the product, orproducts, to be developed and/or produced. Itrelates the elements of work to be accomplishedto each other and to the end product.

    A WBS can be expressed down to any level ofinterest.

    However the top three levels are as far as anyprogram or contract need go unless the itemsidentified are high cost or high risk. Then, and onlythen, is it important to take the work breakdownstructure to a lower level of definition.

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    What else is a WBS used for Insuring that we didnt forget anything

    Matching staff skills to tasks

    Assignment of responsibilities

    Tracking progress via milestones

    We cannot know that coding is 90% complete untilcoding is finished

    Communicating the big picture

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    Example WBS

    E l WBS f I t t

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    Example WBS for IntranetProject

    C o n c e p

    D e s i g n U s e

    D e s i g n S e r

    D e v e l o p S

    S u p p o r t I n f

    W e b S i t

    D e s i g n

    D e v e l o p P

    a n d L i n k

    D e v e l o p

    F u n c t i o n

    C o n t e n t

    M i g r a t i o n / I

    T e s t i n g

    W e b S i t

    D e v e l o p m

    R o l l O u t S u p p o r t

    I n t r a n e t P

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    WBS Rules Avoid too much detail

    break down until a group can do the activity in a week ormonth - a work package

    Only specify what you can manage

    Limit depth of indention to manageable level

    Use regular milestones Helps measure progress

    Break it down one level at a time

    Clearly describe each detailed level Make it a team effort

    Leverage past projects

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    Tool & Technique -WBS

    Bottom-up approach

    This is the most appropriate method for projects involving untested

    methods and approaches OR where team members have not performed

    similar projects before

    Generate all activities you can think of that will have to be done and group

    into categories

    Identifying Work

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    Identifying WorkComponents

    SOW

    Experience / Other WBSs

    Standards Documentssuch as IEEE 1074

    Methods for Developing a

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    Methods for Developing aWBS

    Bottom-up approach (usingBrainstorming)

    This is the most appropriate method forprojects involving untested methods andapproaches OR where team membershave not performed similar projects before

    Generate all activities you can think ofthat will have to be done and group intocategories

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    Gantt Charts

    Gantt Charts are extremely useful projectmanagement tools.

    You can construct a Gantt Chart using MS/Excel

    or a similar spreadsheet.

    Every activity has a separate line.

    You can colour code the time blocks to denote

    type of activity

    You can schedule review and break points.

    At the end of each line you can show as many

    cost columns for the activities as you need.

    G h l

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    Project Management

    Gantt chart example

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    Project Team

    T k A t

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    Task Assessment

    Individual components of WBS needs tobe defined clearly

    Scope and methodology of Task Lifecycle

    critical

    Resource allocation a critical component

    of the function

    N d f T

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    Need for a Team Projects rely on effective teamwork and team

    members should be selected on the bases oftheir:

    Relevant experience

    Technical knowledge

    Appreciation of project objectives

    Creative and innovative ability

    Enthusiasm and commitment

    Ability to work as a member of a team Ability to communicate

    Level of available of resources

    Project Organization -

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    Project Organization Overview

    Functional Organization

    Matrix Organization

    Projectized Organization

    Balanced Matrix Organization

    Organic Projectized Organization

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    Functional Organization

    Director

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff

    Functional

    Manager

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Light colored boxes:involved in projects

    Project Coordination

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    Specialists grouped by function

    Difficult to cross functional lines

    Barriers exist on horizontalinformation flow

    Functional emphasis loyalties may

    impede completionFunctional Manager: An individual responsible foractivities in a specializeddepartment or function

    Functional Organization

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    Light colored boxes:

    involved in projects

    Project Coordination

    Director

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff

    Functional

    Manager

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Manager of

    Project Managers

    Project Manager

    Project Manager

    Project Manager

    Matrix Organization

    M t i O i ti

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    Multiple-command system Individuals from functional areas

    assigned on temporary basis to Project

    Manager Individuals return to functional

    organization

    Careful plans and procedures needed tominimize effects of dual reporting

    Matrix Organization

    Project Manager: An individual responsible formanaging a project

    Matrix Organization

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    Advantages

    Visible objectives Efficient utilization of resources Better co-ordination Better information flow

    Retention of home after project

    DisadvantagesMore than one boss

    Complex structure to controlDiffering priorities of Project Manager and

    Functional ManagerDuplication of effort

    Conflict

    Matrix Organization

    Projectized Organization

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    Director

    Project

    Manager

    Staff

    Project

    Manager

    Project

    Manager

    Staff Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Project Coordination

    Light coloredboxes: involved inprojects

    Projectized Organization

    Projectized Organization

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    Emerges from functional when latterimpedes progress

    Line of authority is the Project Manager

    Uncertainty where to go on completionof project

    Tendency to retain assigned personnel

    too long

    Functional Managers feel threatened aspeople are removed from their areas

    Projectized Organization

    Balanced Matrix

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    Director

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff

    Functional

    Manager

    Functional

    Manager

    Staff Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Staff

    Project Manager

    Project Coordination

    Balanced MatrixOrganization

    Light coloredboxes: involved in

    projects

    Organization

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    PMA

    PMB

    PMC

    FM

    A

    FMB

    FMC

    Organization

    zOrganization

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    Organization Core teams

    Strategic alignments

    Functional and project managers work as ateam

    Department /division boundaries are immaterial

    Requires permeating trust up and down

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    PROJECT SCHEDULING

    TECHNIQUES

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    PERT/CPM

    PERT Program Evaluation and Review TechniqueDeveloped by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile

    projectDeveloped to handle uncertain activity times

    CPM Critical Path MethodDeveloped by Du Pont & Remington Rand

    Developed for industrial projects for whichactivity times generally were known

    Todays project management software packageshave combined the best features of bothapproaches.

    PERT/CPM

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    PERT/CPM

    PERT/CPM is used to plan the scheduling of individualactivities that make up a project. Projects may have as many as several thousand

    activities. A complicating factor in carrying out the activities is

    that some activities depend on the completion ofother activities before they can be started. Project managers rely on PERT/CPM to help them

    answer questions such as: What is the total time to complete the project?

    What are the scheduled start and finish dates foreach specific activity?

    Which activities are critical and must becompleted exactly as scheduled to keep theproject on schedule?

    How long can noncritical activities be delayed

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    Project Network

    A project network can be constructed to model theprecedence of the activities.

    The nodes of the network represent the activities.

    The arcs of the network reflect the precedence

    relationships of the activities. A critical path for the network is a path consisting

    of activities with zero slack.

    Slack is the amount of time that noncritical

    activities can be delayed without increasing theproject completion time.

    Immediate predecessor(s) is (are) activities thatmust be completed immediately before the currentactivity can begin.

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    The Critical Path

    A path through a network is one of the routesfollowing the arrows (arcs) from the start node tothe finish node.

    The length of a path is the sum of the (estimated)durations of the activities on the path.

    The (estimated) project duration or projectcompletion time equals the length of the longest

    path through the project network.This longest path is called the critical path. (If

    more than one path tie for the longest, they all arecritical paths.)

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    Project Network Discussion

    Project networks are not unique. A projectnetwork is considered valid provided allprecedence relationships are preserved.

    Mohawks project network shows that no activitiesprecede activities A and B. For this reason an arcgoes directly from start to these activity nodes.

    The immediate predecessors of each node is (are)displayed on the network by arcs leading fromthese immediate predecessors to the node.

    Also notice that activity H is the only activity thathas an arc that goes directly to the finish node.ONLY ACTIVITIES THAT ARE NOT IMMEDIATEPREDECESSORS TO ANY OTHER NETWORK

    ACTIVITIES MAY HAVE A LINK DIRECTLY TO THE

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    Project Network Example

    Bridge City Developers is coordinating the construction ofan office complex. As part of the planning process, thecompany generated the following activity list. Draw aproject network that can be used to assist in the scheduling

    of the project activities.Activity A B C D E F G H IJ

    Immediate

    Predecessor --- --- --- A,B A, B D E C CF,G,H,I

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    Finish

    Start

    H

    G

    FD

    EB

    C

    J

    I

    A

    Overall Procedure for

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    Overall Procedure for

    solving a Project Network1. Determine the sequence of activities.

    1. Construct the network or precedence

    diagram.2. Starting from the left, compute the

    Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF)time for each activity.

    3. Starting from the right, compute theLate Finish (LF) and Late Start (LS)time for each activity.

    4. Find the slack for each activity.

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    Project Network Notations

    t Duration of an activity

    ES The earliest time an activity canstart

    EF The earliest time an activity can

    finish (EF= ES + t)

    LS The latest time an activity can startand not delay the project

    LF The latest time an activity can finish

    and not delay the project

    Slack The extra time that could be madeavailable to an activity without delayingthe project (Slack= LS ES)

    Critical Path The sequence(s) of activities with no

    Earliest Start and Finish

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    Times Earliest Start Time = the maximum of the

    earliest finish times of all activitiesimmediately preceding activity i. (This is 0for an activity with no predecessors.)

    Earliest Finish Time = (Earliest Start Time) +(Time to complete activity i ).

    The project completion time is the maximum ofthe Earliest Finish Times at the Finish node.

    Latest Finish Time

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    Latest Finish TimeLatest Finish Time Rule: LF = Smallest LS of the

    immediate successors.The immediate successors for a node are all nodesthat immediately follow the current node.

    Procedure for obtaining latest times for allactivities:

    1. For each of the activities that link directly to thefinish node, set LF equal to project completiontime.

    2. For each activity whose LF value has just beenobtained, calculate LS = LF (the time to

    complete the current activity)3. For each new activity whose immediate successors

    now have LS values, obtain its LF by applying thelatest finish time rule. Apply step 2 to calculate itsLS.

    4. Repeat step 3 until LF and LS have been obtained

    PERT/CPM WITH UNCERTAIN

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    PERT/CPM WITH UNCERTAIN

    ACTIVITY TIMES Experience and historical data can be used for projects thathave be completed in the past (such as home andapartment construction) to provide accurate activity timeestimates.

    In many cases, however, projects are new or unique andactivity times are uncertain. In these cases estimatingactivity times could be difficult.

    When there is uncertainty associated with activity times,they are often best described by a range of possible values

    instead of one specific time estimate. Uncertain activity times are treated as random variables

    with associated probability distributions. These distributionallows us to form probability statements about thelikelihood of meeting a specific completion date.

    Three time estimates are collected for each activity to

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    In the three-time estimate approach, the time to complete

    an activity is assumed to follow a Beta distribution. An activitys mean completion time is:

    t = (a + 4m + b)

    6

    a = the optimistic completion time estimate b = the pessimistic completion time estimate m = the most likely completion time estimate

    Uncertain Activity Times

    Uncertain Activity Times

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    An activitys completion time variance is:

    a = the optimistic completion time estimate

    b = the pessimistic completion time estimate

    m = the most likely completion time estimate

    ( )b a

    6

    2

    Uncertain Activity Times

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    EarthMover is a manufacturer of roadconstruction

    equipment including pavers, rollers, andgraders. The

    company is faced with a new

    project, introducing a new

    line of loaders. Management

    is concerned that the project might

    take longer than 26 weeks to

    com lete without crashin some

    Example: EarthMover, Inc.

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    Immediate

    CompletionActivity Description PredecessorsTime (wks)

    A Study Feasibility --- 6

    B Purchase Building A4

    C Hire Project Leader A3

    D Select Advertising Staff B6

    E Purchase Materials B3

    F Hire Manufacturing Staff B,C 10

    G Manufacture Protot e E,F 2

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    PERT Network

    64

    310

    3

    6

    2 6

    8

    C

    Start

    D

    E

    I

    A

    Finish

    H

    G

    B

    F

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    Earliest/Latest Times

    Activity ES EF LS LF SlackA 0 6 0 6 0 *B 6 10 6 10 0 *C 6 9 7 10 1D 10 16 16 22 6E 10 13 17 20 7F 10 20 10 20 0 *

    G 20 22 20 22 0 *H 22 28 24 30 2I 22 30 22 30 0 *

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    Critical Activities

    C

    Star t

    D

    E

    I

    A

    Fin ish

    H

    G

    B

    F

    6644

    331010

    33

    66

    22 66

    880 60 6

    0 60 6

    10 2010 20

    10 2010 20

    20 2220 22

    20 2220 22

    10 1610 16

    16 2216 22 22 3022 30

    22 3022 30

    22 2822 28

    24 3024 306 96 9

    7 107 10

    10 1310 13

    17 2017 20

    6 106 10

    6 106 10

    Crashing

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    Deterministic times are more prone tochanges

    Lat minute changes by clients, unforeseensituations make crashing away of life

    We need to crash the activities of someproject to ensure timely completion

    Crashing

    Project Crashing

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    Project Crashing

    Rules: only crash critical activities

    crash the cheapest critical activity first

    assume each task can be crashed one dayat a time (simplifying assumption, but notnecessary)

    all critical paths must decrease by one

    day, in order for the project duration todecrease by one day

    Crashing example

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    Crashing Sample Network

    1 2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    73

    6

    10

    11

    8

    5

    6

    0

    ritical Path = 3 + 6 + 8 + 6 = 23 Time Units

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    Crashing An Example

    Activity NormalTime

    NormalCost

    CrashTime

    CrashCost

    Slope Max

    Crsh Tm

    1-2 3 50 2 70

    2-3 6 80 4 1602-4 10 60 9 90

    2-5 11 50 7 150

    3-6 8 100 6 1605-7 5 40 4 70

    6-7 6 70 6 70

    Cost/Time Slope

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    Cost/Time Slope

    Step1 compute a cost /time slope that canbe crashed.

    Slope is defined as

    Slope = (Crash cost Normal cost)/(CrashTime Normal time)

    Slope is the Cost Per day of crashing aproject

    Slope is negative which means As timerequired for a project or task is reduced,cost is increased

    Cost/Time Slope

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    / p

    In the above activity 6-7 can not be

    crashed Calculating the slope this way might give

    the impression that activities can becrashed in increments of one day

    But this is not true Example An activity could be carried out

    in eight days or Four days (No

    intermediary times are possible)The crash has to be four days in this case

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    Crashing Sample Network

    1 2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    750

    80

    100

    70

    Normal Project Total Cost = $50 + $80 + $100 + $70+

    $60 + $50 + $40 =

    $450

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    Crashing

    First task Develop a table or graphof cost of the project as a function of

    the projects various completiondates

    Starting with the normal schedule,

    crash selected activities one at atime, to decrease the projectduration at the minimum additionalcost

    Crashing

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    g

    Two principles1. Focus on critical path when trying to

    shorten the duration of the project. (withthe exception that the resource needed

    for one activity, not on the critical pathis needed for another project)2. when shortening a project duration,

    select the least expensive way to do it.

    AOA example is easier to illustratethan AON

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    Crashing An Example

    Activity NormalTime

    NormalCost

    CrashTime

    CrashCost Slope

    Max

    Crsh Tm

    1-2 3 50 2 70 -20 1

    2-3 6 80 4 160 -40 2

    2-4 10 60 9 90 -30 1

    2-5 11 50 7 150 -25 4

    3-6 8 100 6 160 -30 2

    5-7 5 40 4 70 -30 1

    6-7 6 70 6 70 0 0

    C hi S l N t k

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    Crashing Sample Network

    1 2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    750

    80

    100

    70

    Normal Project Total Cost = 50 + 80 + 100 + 70 +60 + 50 + 40 =

    450

    Critical Path = 23 Days

    3

    68

    6

    60

    50 40

    10

    11 5

    C hi S l N k

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    Crashing Sample Network

    1 2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    770

    80

    160

    70

    Crashed Project Total Cost = 70+ 80 + 160 + 70 +60 + 50 + 40 =

    530

    Critical Path = 23 Days

    2

    66

    6

    60

    50 40

    10

    11 5

    CrashedPath = 20 Days

    C hi S l k

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    Crashing Sample Network

    1 2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    770

    160

    160

    70

    Crashed Project Total Cost = 70+ 160 + 160 + 70 +60 + 50 + 40 =

    610

    Critical Path = 23 Days

    2

    46

    6

    60

    50 40

    10

    11 5

    CrashedPath = 18 Days

    Crashing Sample Network

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    Further crashing of CP is not possibleas we have used up the complete

    (maximum) crash time possible. Crashing other paths will not shorten

    the project duration

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    RESOURCE ALLOCATION

    The Resource Allocation

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    Problem

    A shortcoming of most schedulingprocedures is that they do not addressthe issues of resource utilization andavailability

    Scheduling procedures tend to focuson time rather than physical resources

    Time itself is always a critical resourcein project management, one that isunique because it can neither beinventoried nor renewed

    The Resource Allocation

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    ProblemThe extreme points of the relationship betweentime use and resource use are these: Time Limited: The project must be finished by

    a certain time, using as few resources aspossible. But it is time, not resource usage, that

    is criticalResource Limited:The project must be finished

    as soon as possible, but without exceedingsome specific level of resource usage or some

    general resource constraint If all three variables - time, cost, specifications -

    are fixed, the system is over determined

    Resource Loading

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    Resource Loading Resource loading describes the amounts of

    individual resources an existing schedule requiresduring specific time periods

    The loads (requirements) of each resource type arelisted as a function of time period

    Resource loading gives a general understanding ofthe demands a project or set of projects will makeon a firms resources

    Is an excellent guide for early, rough project

    planning Because the project action plan is the source of

    information on activity precedence's, durations,and resources requirements, it is the primary inputfor both the project schedule and its budget

    Resource Leveling

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    Resource Leveling Resource leveling aims to minimize the period-by-period

    variations in resource loading by shifting tasks within theirslack allowances

    When resources are leveled, the associated costs also tendto be leveled

    The project manager must be aware of the cash flowsassociated with the project and of the means of shiftingthem in ways that are useful to the parent firm

    Resource leveling is a procedure that can be used foralmost all projects, whether or not resources are

    constrained

    The purpose is to create a smoother distribution ofresource usage

    Several advantages include: -

    Constrained Resource

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    SchedulingThere are two fundamental approaches to

    constrained allocation problems:

    Heuristic Methods

    Optimization Models

    Heuristic approaches employ rules of thumbthat have been found to work reasonably wellin similar situations

    Optimization approaches seek the bestsolutions but are far more limited in theirability to handle complex situations and largeproblems

    Heuristic Methods

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    Heuristic Methods Heuristic approaches to constrained

    resource scheduling problems are in wide,general use for a number of reasons: 1. They are the only feasible methods of

    attacking the large, nonlinear, complex

    problems that tend to occur in the real world ofproject management

    2. While the schedules that heuristics generatemay not be optimal, they are usually quite

    good- certainly good enough for most purposes

    Heuristic Methods

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    Most heuristic solution methods start

    with the PERT/CPM schedule and analyzeresource usage period by period,resource by resource

    In a period when the available supply of aresource is exceeded, the heuristicexamines the tasks in that period andallocates the scarce resource to them

    sequentially, according to some priorityrule

    Technological necessities always takeprecedence

    Heuristic Methods

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    Heuristic Methods Common priority rules:

    As soon as possibleAs late as possible

    Shortest task first

    Most resources firstMinimum slack first

    Most critical followers

    Most successorsArbitrary

    Heuristic Methods

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    Most priority rules are simple adaptations of theheuristics used for the traditional job shopscheduling problem of production/operationsmanagement

    Most heuristics use a combination of rules: aprimary rule, and a secondary rule to break ties

    As the scheduling heuristic operates, one of twoevents will result:

    The routine runs out of activities before it runsout of resources

    The routine runs out of resources before allactivities have been scheduled

    Optimizing Methods

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    Optimizing MethodsThe methods to find an optimal solution to

    the constrained resource scheduling

    problem fall into two categories:

    Mathematical programming

    Enumeration

    Mathematical programming can be thought

    of as liner programming (LP) for the most

    part Linear programming is usually not feasible for

    reasonably large projects where there may be a dozenresources and thousands of activities

    Multiproject Scheduling &

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    Resource AllocationThe most common approach to scheduling

    and allocating resources to multipleprojects is to treat the several projects as ifthey were each elements of a single large

    project Another way of attacking the problem is to

    consider all projects as completely

    independentTo describe such a system properly,

    standards are needed by which to measurescheduling effectiveness

    Multiproject Scheduling &

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    Three important parameters affected by project

    scheduling are:

    Schedule slippage Resource utilization

    In-process inventory

    The organization (or the project manager) must select

    the criterion most appropriate for its situation

    p j gResource Allocation

    Multiproject Scheduling and

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    Resource Allocation Schedule slippage, often considered the

    most important of the criteria, is the timepast a projects due date or delivery datewhen the project is completed

    Resource utilization is of particular concernto industrial firms because of the high costof making resources available

    The amount of in-process inventoryconcerns the amount of work waiting to beprocessed because there is a shortage ofsome resource

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    PROCUREMENTMANAGEMENT

    Estimate Resource Costs

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    Develop cost estimates for:internal & external labor (hrs,rates)

    materials

    supplies

    contractsspecial costs

    refined during thecourse of the project ,

    definitive just priorto construction

    Estimate

    ROM + 100% or -50%

    Intermediate +or - 30%

    Definitive + or

    - 20%

    Organize and Acquire

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    Staff

    K r i s t e n D u u s

    O I S O v e r s i g h t

    M a u r e e n C a s t e r l i n e

    B u s i n e s s S p o n s o r

    D e b r a H e r r l i

    P r o j e c t M a n a g e r

    ( 1 0 0 % )

    B r y a n N e a l yS y s t e m

    A r c h i t e c t u r e T e a m

    L e a d ( 5 0 % )

    P e t e H a l eA p p l i c a t i o n

    D e v e l o p m e n t T e a m

    L e a d ( 1 0 0 % )

    3 C o n t r a c t

    D e v e l o p e r s

    4 B u s i n e s sA n a l y s t s

    T i n a S e s h a d r iT e c h n i c a l

    R e s o u r c e ( a s

    n e e d e d )

    P o l i c y a n d P r a c t i c e

    T e a m ( S t e e r i n g

    C o m m i t t e e )

    1 C o n t r a c t S y s t e m s

    I n t e g r a t i o n /

    D a t a b a s e

    D e v e l o p e r

    Determine What to Procure &When

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    WhenProcurement planning

    determines:whether, what, and how much,

    how and when,

    how to manage solicitations,selection, contract administration,and closeout

    Procurement documents:SOW - Statement of Work

    RFP - Request for Proposal

    Evaluation Criteria

    Actual solicitationis part of execution

    Build Budget & SpendingPlan

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    PlanBudgeting involves assigning the costestimates to all the tasks creating a costbaseline.

    Jan Feb Mar June So on

    Internal Labor 5,000 5,000 5,000 6,000 10,000

    External Labor 7,000 15,000 15,000

    HW/SW 3,000 20,000 20,000

    Contracts 9000 30,000

    Training 5,000 5,000 5,000

    Total 10,000 10,000 15,000 50,000 80,000

    Budget/Spending Plan

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    Project Monitoring andControl

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    LevelofA

    ctivity

    Start FinishTime

    Initiate

    Execute

    Close

    Monitoringand Control

    Plan

    Project Monitoring & Control

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    Monitor & Control Project Work Integrated Change Management

    Scope Verification & Control Prevent scope creep!You didnt budget for it!

    Schedule Control & Update Critical path monitoring Reschedule as needed to

    optimize resources Cost Control Quality Control Manage Project Team

    Make staffing updates arerequired

    Performance Reporting Communicate with Stakeholders

    & Executives Risk Monitoring & Control

    Risk Planning & Risk Mitigation Contract Administration

    Project Control

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    Project control taking correctiveactions to keep the project on targettoward meeting its performance goals(time, cost, deliverables)

    The project manager has finalresponsibility for project control

    There are many ways to exert control;the PM must decide which is mostappropriate

    Resource allocations, fundingdecisions, personnel assignments,

    change in priorities

    Project Control 3 Steps

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    Project Control 3 Steps

    1. Measuring & Monitoring Identifying/tracking key performancemetrics

    1. Evaluating

    Analyzing causes of problems and potentialcorrective actions

    1. Correcting Taking corrective actions to bring project

    performance back in line with goals

    Measuring & MonitoringSystem

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    yMany issues must be decided for a good

    measuring and monitoring system What should be measured and monitored? How should it be measured?

    Who should monitor it? How should it be monitored? When should it be monitored? Where should info be stored? Who should have access to info?

    Project Reports as a ControlTool

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    oo Reports are one way to give many

    different people a chance to look forpotential problems

    They also can keep everyone updatedabout the current project status

    Everyone concerned with the projectshould receive reports containing info.relevant to issues under their control

    What types of info. should an engineerworking on a project receive, vs. seniormanagement?

    When should these reports be provided?

    Resource Allocation

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    Resource allocation can be used as acontrol mechanism

    Allocating more, less, or differentphysical resources can affect theprogress of activities, and can affecttheir cost and/or the quality ofoutputs/deliverables as well

    Assigning more, less, or differentemployees also can affect projectperformance

    Allocating more or less funds to anactivity is yet another way to affectproject performance

    Resource Conflicts

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    Sometimes a limited resource is needed(at the same time) by several activitiesin one project or by different activitiesin multiple projects (so some of the

    activities must wait) Setting priority rules for which activity

    get the constrained resource first canbe a means of project control

    In the case of multiple projects, thegoals and importance of all the projectsshould be considered

    Resource Conflict Rules

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    Example: Suppose two tasks from different

    projects need to use the radiation testinglab chamber at the same time. Whichgets it first?

    task with the least slack time task that needs the least time in the lab

    task that needs the most time in the lab

    task with the most following activities task from the more important or profitable

    project

    arbitraryflip a coin

    Project Accelerating/Crashing

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    Project crashing (or accelerating aproject) is another way to exert projectcontrol

    Crashing a project means shortening

    its duration, or speeding it up (doing itquicker)

    Unfortunately, this almost always costsmore

    Sometimes crashing is done becauseearlier activities were delayed; othertimes it is done because the customer is

    willin to trade a hi her cost for a

    Resource Loading

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    For each resource during each timeperiod, determine the total amount ofresource time required by all activitiescombined

    Compare this total time with thecapacity of the resource during eachtime period

    Identify resources that are over-utilized(or overloaded) during any time period

    What should be done about it?

    Resource Leveling

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    Re-scheduling some activities toeliminate resource overloading incertain time periods

    Try to delay activities that have extraslack time firstthis will not delay theproject

    If that doesnt work, then activities mustbe delayed which will delay the projectdue date

    Popular project management software

    Project Tracking Tools

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    Popular project management softwareallows you to easily track cost andschedule performance as the projectprogresses

    This provides a useful tool for projectcontrol

    The current cost and schedule status mustbe entered routinely (daily or weekly)

    For each activity, you must estimate:actual cost so far, and percent complete

    Earned Value Analysis is a commontracking tool that provides performance

    Earned Value Analysis

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    Earned Value Analysis compares thecurrent project status with the original(baseline) plan

    It computes several performance

    metrics for individual activities and forthe entire project

    It focuses on cost and scheduleperformance

    Its a useful tool for project control

    Popular project management softwarecomputes these metrics

    Earned Value

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    Earned Value Earned Value for a task = (budgeted

    cost of task)*(% completion of task) Its often difficult to estimate %

    completion of a task; 4 approaches oncetask is started:assume 50% completion until task is

    finishedassume 0% until task is finisheduse % of budgeted cost or time used so

    farbest guess of knowledgeable person

    (best)

    Earned Value for the entire project is

    Earned Value Metrics

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    BCWSBudgeted Cost of Work Scheduled(PV) baseline cost of scheduled work

    ACWPActual Cost of Work Performed

    (AC) actual cost of work actually performed so far

    BCWPBudgeted Cost of Work Performed(EV) budgeted cost of work actually performed so far

    Cost variance (CV) = BCWP ACWP

    Schedule variance (SV) = BCWP BCWS

    Earned Value Chart

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    3 lines on chart:Baselineplanned cost over time

    (BCWS)Actual Cost line (ACWP)

    Earned Value line (BCWP) Schedule variance (negative is bad) Cost variance (negative is bad) Example chart on next slide

    describe project performance in thisexample

    Earned Value Chart 1

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    Time

    Now

    Rup

    ees

    Schedulevariance

    Costvariance

    Cost schedule plan

    (baseline)

    ACWP

    BCWP

    BCWSActual cost

    Value completed (Earned Value)

    PerformanceCostSched.

    Earned Value Chart 2

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    Time

    Now

    Rup

    ees

    BCWSbaseline

    ACWP

    BCWP=EV

    PerformanceCostSched.

    Earned Value Chart 3

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    Time

    Now

    Rup

    ees

    BCWSbaseline

    ACWP

    BCWP = EV

    PerformanceCostSched.

    Earned Value Metrics

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    BCWSBudgeted Cost of Work Scheduled(PV) baseline cost of scheduled work

    ACWPActual Cost of Work Performed

    (AC) actual cost of work actually performed so far

    BCWPBudgeted Cost of Work Performed(EV) budgeted cost of work actually performed so far

    Cost variance (CV) = BCWP ACWP

    Schedule variance (SV) = BCWP BCWS

    CPI and SPI

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    CPI and SPI

    CPI and SPI give the sameinformation as cost variance andschedule variance, except as aratio instead of as a Rupeedifference

    Cost Performance Index (CPI)

    CPI = BCWP / ACWP (or EV /AC)

    Schedule Performance Index (SPI)

    SPI = BCWP / BCWS (or EV /

    Example

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    pExample: Budgeted cost for finished task =

    Rs 850;Actual cost to date = Rs 550; Task is 70%

    complete,

    but was scheduled to be 80% complete by

    nowBCWS = 0.8*(Rs 850) = Rs 680 PV

    (baseline)

    BCWP = 0.7*(Rs 850) = Rs 595 EV

    ACWP = Rs 550 ACCost variance = BCWP ACWP = + Rs 45

    (good)

    Schedule variance = BCWP BCWS = - Rs 85

    bad

    ETC and EAC

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    Two more cost metrics are ETC and EAC

    Estimated (remaining cost) To CompletionETC = (BAC BCWP) / CPI

    (note: Microsoft Project does not divide byCPI)

    BAC = budgeted cost at completion =Rs 850

    ETC = (850 595) / 1.082 = Rs 235.67

    Estimated (total cost) At CompletionEAC = ETC + ACWPEAC = 235.67 + 550 = Rs 785.67

    Scope Creep

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    Scope C eep PM must be cautious of scope creep. Why?

    Most common cause is due to the client orproject team wanting to enhance theprojects deliverables

    The later that changes are made, the moredifficult and costly they become

    Scope creep is welcome if it lowers costs orenhances the firms competitiveness

    A change control system allows the PM toassess the impacts and desirability ofpotential changes before deciding toimplement them

    Change Control System

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    Review suggested changes Assess all impacts to project goals Evaluate advantages and disadvantages Consider alternative changes that are

    better Allow responsible parties to make

    decision in light of all information Communicate changes to everyone

    involved Implement changes Summarize all changes and impacts in

    report

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    Project Risk

    Management

    Sample Risk Register/ Risk Analysis

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    No. Rank Risk DescriptionCategory RootCause

    Triggers PotentialResponses

    RiskOwner

    Probability Impact Severity Status

    R44 1

    R21 2

    R7 3

    Project severity = expectation (1-10) *impact (1-10)

    When should risk analysis be formed?

    Is not a time activity Periodic update and reviewed

    Calculating Severity

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    Problem Expectation

    Impact Severity

    Staff 6 5 30

    Late delivery of

    hardware

    5 8 40

    Communication andNetworks problem

    5 5 25

    Project severity = expectation (1-10) * impact (1-10)

    Qualitative Risk Analysis

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    Assess the likelihood and impact ofidentified risks to determine theirmagnitude and priority.

    Risk quantification tools andtechniques include:Probability/impact matrixes

    The Top Ten Risk Item Tracking

    Expert judgment

    Probability/Impact Matrix

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    Aprobability/impact matrix

    orchart

    lists therelative probability of a risk occurring on one side ofa matrix or axis on a chart and the relative impactof the risk occurring on the other.

    List the risks and then label each one as high,medium, or low in terms of its probability ofoccurrence and its impact if it did occur.

    Can also calculate risk factors:

    Numbers that represent the overall risk of specificevents based on their probability of occurring andthe consequences to the project if they do occur.

    Sample Probability/ImpactMatrix

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    Matrix

    Sample Probability/Impact Matrix forQualitative Risk Assessment

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    High-, Medium-, and Low-RiskTechnologies

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    g

    Top Ten Risk Item Tracking

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    Top Ten Risk Item Tracking is aqualitative risk analysis tool that helps toidentify risks and maintain an awarenessof risks throughout the life of a project.

    Establish a periodic review of the top tenproject risk items.

    List the current ranking, previous ranking,number of times the risk appears on thelist over a period of time, and a summaryof progress made in resolving the riskitem.

    Example of Top Ten Risk ItemTracking

    Monthly Ranking

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    Monthly Ranking

    Risk Item This

    Month

    Last

    Month

    Number

    of Months

    Risk Resolution

    Progress

    Inadequate

    planning

    1 2 4 Working on revising the

    entire project plan

    Poor definition

    of scope

    2 3 3 Holding meetings with

    project customer and

    sponsor to clarify scope

    Absence ofleadership

    3 1 2 Just assigned a newproject manager to lead

    the project after old onequit

    Poor cost

    estimates

    4 4 3 Revising cost estimates

    Poor time

    estimates

    5 5 3 Revising schedule

    estimates

    Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Of f ll li i i k

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    Often follows qualitative riskanalysis, but both can be donetogether.

    Large, complex projects involving

    leading edge technologies oftenrequire extensive quantitative riskanalysis.

    Main techniques include:Decision tree analysisSimulationSensitivity analysis

    Decision Trees and ExpectedMonetary Value (EMV)

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    Monetary Value (EMV) A decision tree is a diagramming analysis

    technique used to help select the bestcourse of action in situations in which future

    outcomes are uncertain. Estimated monetary value (EMV) is the

    product of a risk event probability and therisk events monetary value.

    You can draw a decision tree to help findthe EMV.

    Expected Monetary Value(EMV)

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    (EMV)

    Sensitivity Analysisi i i l i i h i d

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    Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to

    show the effects of changing one or morevariables on an outcome.

    For example, many people use it to

    determine what the monthly payments for aloan will be given different interest rates orperiods of the loan, or for determining break-even points based on different assumptions.

    Spreadsheet software, such as Excel, is acommon tool for performing sensitivityanalysis.

    Sensitivity Analysis for DeterminingBreak-Even Point

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    Risk Response Planning

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    After identifying and quantifying risks,you must decide how to respond tothem.

    Four main response strategies fornegative risks:Risk avoidance

    Risk acceptanceRisk transference

    Risk mitigation

    General Risk Mitigation Strategiesfor Technical, Cost, and ScheduleRisks

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    Risks

    Response Strategies forPositive Risks

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    Risk exploitation Risk sharing

    Risk enhancement

    Risk acceptance

    Residual and SecondaryRisks

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    Risks

    Its also important to identify residual andsecondary risks.

    Residual risks are risks that remain afterall of the response strategies have been

    implemented. Secondary risks are a direct result of

    implementing a risk response.

    Risk Monitoring and Control

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    Involves executing the risk management process torespond to risk events.

    Workarounds are unplanned responses to riskevents that must be done when there are nocontingency plans.

    Main outputs of risk monitoring and control are:

    Requested changes.

    Recommended corrective and preventive actions.

    Updates to the risk register, project managementplan, and organizational process assets.

    Resu ts o Goo Pro ect R sManagement

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    Unlike crisis management, goodproject risk management often goesunnoticed.

    Well-run projects appear to be almosteffortless, but a lot of work goes intorunning a project well.

    Project managers should strive tomake their jobs look easy to reflectthe results of well-run projects.

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    PROJECT CLOSURE

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    LevelofA

    ctivity

    Start FinishTime

    Initiate

    Execute

    Close

    Monitoringand Control

    Plan

    Project Close Out Successful transition into the

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    Successful transition into the

    organizations ongoing operation Administrative close-out

    Evaluating the project

    Compiling lessons learned Contract close-out activities

    Project ClosingProject Closing Involves gaining stakeholder and customer

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    Involves gaining stakeholder and customer

    acceptance of the final products andservices.

    Even if projects are not completed, they

    should be formally closed in order to reflecton what can be learned to improve futureprojects.

    Outputs include project archives and

    lessons learned, which are part oforganizational process assets.

    Most projects also include a final report and

    presentation to the sponsor or senior

    Closing a ProjectIs the project ready for close-out and/or

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    s e p ojec eady o c ose ou a d/o

    transition?Is the Change management plan up-to-date?Are the deliverables / outputs complete and

    acceptable based on the quality standards?

    Is the documentation (training manuals, userguides, evaluation reports, etc.) ready forhand-over?

    Make sure Phase / Milestone reviews are

    captured, summarized and maintained in aBody of Knowledge.

    Closing a Project Obtain approvals proof of completion

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    Ensure user and stakeholder satisfaction Lessons learned

    Improve estimates for future projects

    Improve project methodologies

    Recognize team members and contributions

    Evaluate project success according to (1) time, (2) cost(3) quality and (4) scope (deliverables)

    Establish transition plan for those providing ongoing

    implementation in local context

    Assess next steps if any

    Project Close-Out Report What is it? The Project Close Out Report formalizes

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    What is it? The Project Close Out Report formalizes

    closure of the project. This process assures that theAccountable Executives, Business Sponsor andStakeholders have formally accepted the product orservice by verifying that the outcomes met all thedeliverables outlined in the Project Scope of Work.

    Summarily, the Project Close Out Report assesses projectsuccesses and areas for growth, and ensures that lessonslearned/deliverable documents have been entered intoappropriate databases.

    Why use it? The bookend counterpart to the ProjectCharter & Justification/Project Scope of Work, the ProjectClose Out Report ensures that all protocols necessary forproject completion are followed. Furthermore, it helpsensure that the projects shared learnings are passed onto the Partnershipand future projects.

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    PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN

    COMPLEX ENVIORNMENT

    NEW AVENUES PERT-based models not well suited for the present day multi-

    project environment

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    project environment.

    Complex models of "projects" cause unnecessary costs and lowmaneuverability in several cases.

    PM experts try to identify different "lightweight" models, like AgileProject Management methods.

    Event Chain Methodology

    Event chain methodology is an uncertainty modeling and

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    gy y gschedule network analysis technique that is focused on

    identifying and managing events and event chains thataffect project schedules.

    Event chain methodology helps to mitigate the negativeimpact of psychological heuristics and biases, as well as toallow for easy modeling of uncertainties in the project

    schedules. Event chain methodology is based on thefollowing major principles.

    Probabilistic moment of risk: An activity (task) in most reallife processes is not a continuous uniform process. Tasksare affected by external events, which can occur at some

    point in the middle of the task.

    Event chains: Events can cause other events, which willcreate event chains. These event chains can significantlyaffect the course of the project. Quantitative analysis isused to determine a cumulative effect of these event chains

    Event Chain Methodology

    Critical events or event chains: The single events or the

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    Critical events or event chains: The single events or the

    event chains that have the most potential to affect theprojects are the critical events or critical chains ofevents. They can be determined by the analysis.

    Project tracking with events: If a project is partiallycompleted and data about the project duration, cost, andevents occurred is available, it is possible to refineinformation about future potential events and helps toforecast future project performance.

    Event chain visualization: Events and event chains can be

    visualized using event chain diagrams on a Gantt chart.

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    Project Auditing

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    Project Auditing

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    A major vehicle for evaluation is theproject audit, a more or less formal inquiryinto any aspect of the project

    A project audit is highly flexible and may focuson whatever matters senior managementdesires

    The evaluation of a project must have credibility

    in the eyes of the management group for whomit is performed and also in the eyes of theproject team on whom it is performed

    Evaluation Benefits of ProjectAudit

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    A successful project evaluation viaaudit can help an organization: Identify problems earlier

    Clarify performance, cost, and timerelationships

    Improve project performance

    Locate opportunities for future technological

    advances Evaluate the quality of project management

    Reduce costs

    Need for Project Audit

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    Organizational Benefits Speed the achievement of results

    Identify mistakes, remedy them, and avoid

    them in the future Provide information to the client

    Reconfirm the organizations interest in, andcommitment to, the project

    Purposes of Evaluation - Goals of theSystem

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    Evaluation often makesrecommendations that relate toancillary, unplanned, but important

    contributions to the project and itsparent: Improve understanding of the ways in which

    projects may be of value to the organization

    Improve processes for organizing andmanaging projects

    Provide a congenial environment in whichproject team members can work creatively

    Purposes of Evaluation Other ProjectAudit Outcomes

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    Ancillary goals Identify organizational strengths and

    weaknesses in project-related personnel,

    management, and decision-making techniquesand systems

    Identify risk factors in the firms use ofprojects

    Improve the way projects contribute to theprofessional growth of project team members

    Identify project personnel who have highpotential for managerial leadership

    Purposes of Evaluation - Goals ofthe System

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    A successful project evaluation canhelp an organization: Identify problems earlier

    Clarify performance, cost, and timerelationships

    Improve project performance

    Locate opportunities for future technological

    advances Evaluate the quality of project management

    Reduce costs

    Purposes of Evaluation - Goals ofthe System

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    A successful project evaluation can help anorganization (cont.): Speed the achievement of results Identify mistakes, remedy them, and avoid them in the future Provide information to the client Reconfirm the organizations interest in, and commitment to,

    the project

    Evaluation often makes recommendations thatrelate to ancillary, unplanned, but importantcontributions to the project and its parent: Improve understanding of the ways in which projects may be

    of value to the organization Improve processes for organizing and managing projects Provide a congenial environment in which project team

    members can work creatively together

    Purposes of Evaluation - Goals ofthe System Ancillary goals

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    Ancillary goals Identify organizational strengths and

    weaknesses in project-related personnel,management, and decision-making techniquesand systems

    Identify risk factors in the firms use ofprojects

    Improve the way projects contribute to theprofessional growth of project team members

    Identify project personnel who have highpotential for managerial leadership

    The Project Audit

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    The project audit is a thoroughexamination of the management of aproject, its methodology and

    procedures, its records, itsproperties, its budgets andexpenditures and its degree ofcompletion

    The formal report may be presentedin various formats, but should, at aminimum contain comments on somespecific points

    The Project Audit Six parts of a project audit:

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    1. Current status of the project 2. Future status

    3. Status of crucial tasks

    4. Risk assessment

    5. Information pertinent to other projects 6. Limitations of the audit

    It is far broader in scope than a financialaudit and may deal with the project as awhole or any component or set ofcomponents of the project

    Depth of the Audit

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    Time and money are two of the mostcommon limits on depth of investigationand level of detail presented in the audit

    report Accumulation, storage, and

    maintenance of auditable data areimportant cost elements

    Two often overlooked costs are the selfprotective activity of team membersduring an audit, and the potential forproject morale to suffer as a result of a

    Depth of the Audit

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    There are three distinct and easilyrecognized levels of project auditing:General audit - normally most constrained by

    time and resources and is usually a brief review

    of the project touching lightly on the six partsof an audit

    Detailed audit - usually conducted when afollow-up to the general audit is required

    Technical audit - generally carried out by aqualified technician under the direct guidanceof the project auditor

    T


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