Nail 02 2015 pdf

February, 2015 l The NAIL 1

2 The NAIL l February, 2015



The official magazine ofHome Builders Association

of Middle Tennessee

PresidentTrey Lewis

Vice PresidentRandall Smith

Secretary/TreasurerJohn Zelenak

Executive Vice PresidentJohn Sheley

Editor and DesignerJim Argo

StaffConnie NicleyPat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by theHome Builders Association of MiddleTennessee, a non-profit trade associationdedicated to promoting the Americandream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomesmanuscripts and photos related to theMiddle Tennessee housing industry forpublication. Editor reserves the right toedit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send addresschanges to: HBAMT, 9007 OverlookBoulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.Phone: (615) 377-1055.

THE

NAIL


FEATURES

9A More Robust Year for

Housing in 2015 A boost in single family production is

expected in 2015 according to economists speaking at the International Builders’

Show in Las Vegas last month.

10Home Show this month at

Nashville Fairgrounds The Nashville Home Show returns to

the State Fairgrounds this month, Friday through Sunday, Feb 20-22nd.

DEPARTMENTS

6News & Information

17SPIKE Club Report

18February Calendar

18Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER:The 2015 Nashville Home Show returns to

the State Fairgrounds this month. More details on page ten.


Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 11.6 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

481,000 units, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“This uptick is in line with what our builders are telling us in surveys and on the ground — that they are seeing in-creased traffic and more serious buyers in the market for single-family homes,”

said Tom Woods, chairman of the Na-tional Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo.

“After a slow start to 2014 precipitated by bad weather conditions, new home sales have ramped up in the second half of the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “We can expect this momentum to continue into 2015 with the release of pent-up demand, particularly as existing home owners are trading up.”

The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 219,000 in December, which is a 5.5-month supply at the current sales pace.

Regionally, new home sales rose 53.6 percent in the Northeast, 17.7 percent in the South and 3.1 percent in the West. Sales dropped 11.5 percent in the Midwest. n

New home sales rise 11.6 percent in December

NEws&INfo

We can expect this momentum to continue into 2015 with the release of pent-up demand, particularly as existing home owners are trading up.


Led by solid gains in single-family hous-ing production, nationwide housing starts rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted

annual rate of 1.089 million units in December, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department. For the year, overall housing starts topped 1 million units.

“Today’s figures continue to be in line with our recent surveys, as builders have been be-coming increasingly optimistic,” said Kevin Kelly, NAHB chairman.

“With overall starts ending the year above 1 million units for the first time since 2007, we ex-pect this momentum to carry forward in 2015,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “A growing labor market and strengthening econ-omy will spur steady growth in single-family housing production in the year ahead.”

Single-family housing production rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000 in December while multifamily starts edged 1 percent lower to 361,000 units.

Combined single-family and multifamily production was up in three out of four regions in December. The Northeast posted a 12.5 percent gain, the South was up 8.8 percent and the West registered a 5.8 percent increase. The Midwest posted a 13.3 percent decline.

Overall permit issuance was down 1.9 per-cent in December to a rate of 1.032 million. Single-family permits rose by 4.5 percent to 667,000 units while multifamily permits fell 12 percent to a rate of 365,000 units.

Regionally, permits were mixed in December. The Midwest and South posted gains of 6.7 percent

and 9.6 percent, respectively, while the Northeast and West dropped 16.8 percent and 20.5 percent.

Builder confidence declines one pointBuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes declined one point to 57, ac-cording to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index re-leased recently. This marks the third straight month

that the index has hovered in the upper 50s range. “After seven months above the key 50 bench-

mark, builder sentiment is reflecting the gradual improvement that is occurring in many markets throughout the nation,” said Kelly.

“January’s HMI reading is in line with our forecast as we head into the new year,” said Crowe. “Steady economic growth, rising con-sumer confidence and a growing labor market will help the housing market continue to move forward in 2015.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The sur-vey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospec-tive buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI component gauging current sales con-ditions remained unchanged at 62 in January while the index measuring expectations for future sales dropped four points to 60 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell two points to 44.

Looking at the three-month moving aver-ages for regional HMI scores, the West rose by four points to 66, the Midwest registered a three-point gain to 57 and the Northeast was up two points to 47. The South dropped two points to 58. n

Housing starts rising, builders confidence holding steady

As Millennials begin to enter the home buying market in larger numbers, homes will get a little smaller, laundry rooms

will be essential, and home technology will be-come increasingly prevalent, said panelists during an IBS press conference on home trends and Mil-lennials’ home preferences.

NAHB Assistant Vice President of Research Rose Quint predicted that the growing numbers of first-time buyers will drive down home size in 2015. Three million new jobs were created in 2014, 700,000 more than the previous year “and the most since 1999,” Quint said. At the same time, regula-tors have reduced downpayment requirements for first-time buyers from 5 percent to 3 percent and home prices have seen only moderate growth.

“All these events lead me to believe that more people will come into the market, and as younger, first-time buyers, they will demand smaller, more affordable homes.” Quint said.

Quint also unveiled the results of two surveys: one asking home builders what features they are most likely to include in a typical new home this year, and one asking Millennials what features are most likely to affect their home buying decisions.

Of the Top 10 features cited by home builders, four have to do with energy efficiency: Low-E win-dows, Energy Star-rated appliances and windows and programmable thermostats. Top features: a master bedroom walk-in closet and a separate laundry room.

Least likely features include high-end out-door kitchens with plumbing and appliances and two-story foyers and family rooms.

When asked what features fill their “most-wanted” shopping list, a separate laundry room clearly topped the list, with 55 percent re-sponding that they just wouldn’t buy a new home that didn’t have one. Storage is also important, with linen closets, a walk-in pantry and garage storage making the Top 10 – along with Energy

Star certifications. In fact, this group is willing to pay 2-3 percent more for energy efficiency as long as they can see a return on their power bills.

A whopping 75 percent of this generation wants to live in single-family homes, and 66 per-cent of them prefer to live in the suburbs. Only 10 percent say they want to stay in the central city.

Panelist Jill Waage, editorial director for home content at Better Homes and Gardens, discussed Millennials’ emphasis on the importance of out-door living and that generation’s seamless use of technology, and how those two trends play into their home buying and home renovation decisions.

Because they don’t have as much ready cash as older home owners, Millennials seek less ex-pensive, low-maintenance choices like a brightly painted front door, strings of garden lights, and landscaping that needs less watering and mowing.

They’re also very comfortable with their smart-phones and tablets, and seek ways to control their heating and air-conditioning and security and lighting as well as other electronics from their phones. “They want to use their brains for other things, not for remembering whether they adjusted the heat or closed the garage door,” Waage said. n

Millenials seek smaller houses, won’t sacrifice details



A more robust year for housing in 2015A strengthening labor market, low interest rates, improving

mortgage availability and growing pent-up demand will help to significantly boost single-family housing produc-tion in the year ahead and move the housing recovery to

higher ground, according to economists speaking at the International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas last month.

With economic growth near 4 percent for the last half of 2014 and employment gains averaging more than 250,000 per month last year, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said these are the primary factors that have helped consumer confidence jump back to pre-recession levels.

“The signs point to a more robust year for housing,” Crowe said. “Household balance sheets are returning to normal levels, home owners’ equity is increasing and significant pent-up demand is rising. More than

7 million existing home sales were postponed or lost during the down-turn; and while some are lost forever, we should see some catch-up.”

The ForecastNAHB is projecting 993,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.7 percent from last year’s total of 930,000 units.

Single-family production is expected to rise 26 percent in 2015 to 804,000 units. “While a good beginning, this is still well below a normal level of 1.3 to 1.4 million single-family starts,” Crowe said.

On the multifamily front, NAHB is anticipating 358,000 starts in 2015, up 2 percent from 352,000 last year.

The sale of new single-family homes is expected to hit 564,000 this year, a 29.3 percent increase above last year’s (continued on page 17)


Home Show returns to fairgroundsIf you are in the market for home improvement products or ser-

vices, or if you are a company that provides home improvement products and services, don’t miss the 2015 Nashville Home Show! The annual event returns to the State Fairgrounds this

year for a busy three-day weekend kicking off Friday, February 20th. The Home Show is an annual event and has been a middle Ten-

nessee tradition for over forty years. Everyone enjoys attending the show and taking part in the wide variety of activities that are avail-able each day. In addition to all the vendor exhibit booths, attendees will find informative product demonstrations and daily educational seminars covering a variety of home care and home décor topics. See the seminar schedule on page eleven for a full listing of all the terrific opportunities being offered during the show.

If you are interested in purchasing exhibit space at the 2015 Home Show please visit www.hbamt.org and download the registration forms, or find the one-page form on page thirteen of this issue. A layout of the event show floor indicating booth availability (at time of this publication) can be found on pages fourteen and fifteen of this issue. For more exhibit booth information please contact Connie Nicley at [email protected]. For more information about the show visit at www.hbamt.org. n

WHENFebruary 20-22 (Friday through Sunday)

Fridsy and Saturday: 9 AM to 8 PM Sunday: 10 AM to 5 PM

WHERE

State Fairgrounds, Nashville, Tennessee500 Wedgewood Avenue, 37203

HOWAdults: $10 per person | Children under 12: Free

Tickets available at the gate

MORE INFO(615) 377-1055 | www.hbamt.org


SEMINAR SCHEDulEMark your calendars now for these fun and informative seminars being held at the 2015

Home Show. Seminars are free to attend with your admission!

FridAy10 A.M. - ready, Set, Go! On the road To Aging - Aging in Place Transition Services, Sara Beth Warne11 A.M. - Landscaping with Tennessee Native Plants - David Lynn Cook, Davidson County Extension AgentNoon - Spring, Summer, Fall & Winter Vegetable Gardening in Middle Tennessee - David Lynn Cook, Davidson County Extension Agent1 P.M. - The Energy of Change: your Key to a Stress-free Home - Gail Adkins, Change-Magic2 P.M. - Five Ways to Make More Money Selling real Estate (builders & realtors) - Michelle Moore, The Power of Real Estate Show3 P.M. - The Color Wheel: Understanding and Using Color as an Element of Landscape design - David Lynn Cook, Davidson County Extension Agent4 P.M. - Options for today’s kitchens with LEd - Brad Dobson, Hermitage Lighting5 P.M. - The Ease and Advantage of Purchasing a New Home - Trey Lewis, Ole South Builders6 P.M. - Green Building/Urban development - Renee Condre, Beth Haley Design7 P.M. - What Homes are Worth & Why - Kevin Pellatiro, Benchmark Realty

SATUrdAy

9 A.M. - Cabinets 101, Everything you Want to Know About Cabinets But Were Afraid to Ask - Barbara French, French’s Cabinet Gallery10 A.M. - Window Coverings: From Simple to divine - Bohnne Jones, Decorating Den Interiors 11 A.M. - designing your Perfect Outdoor Kitchen - Crystal Watson, Embers Grill & Fireplace StoreNoon - Selling your Home? is it ready For its Close Up? - Carol Bass, The Decorating & Staging Academy1 P.M. - Seven Things Every Home Seller Should do Before Listing Their House - Michelle Moore, The Power of Real Estate Show2 P.M. - Finding the Key to Calm - Lesley Clavijo & Denise W. Iroler, Chaotically Creative3 P.M. - Make A Change With Paint…And More - Rosemary Anderson Palmer, Not Just Paper and Paint4 P.M. diy & Craft Projects you Can Complete in An Hour or Less - Jenna LaFevor, Rain on a Tin Roof 5 P.M. - How to Make a Monogrammed doormat: Personalize yours with Style - KariAnne Wood, Thistlewood Farms6 P.M. - How to decorate with Boxes - Shirley Horowitz, Davishire Interiors7 P.M. - The Secrets to a Kale Salad that People Will Eat and The Secret to Making a Southern Fluffy Biscuit - Angela Pomone Roberts, Spinach Tiger food blogger

SUNdAy10 A.M. - Trends in Glass, Stone, Porcelain, Ceramic Tile For your Perfect Look - Gina Hewlett, Louisville Tile11 A.M. - Container Gardening - Barbara Wise, LSINoon - Flower Gardening - Barbara Wise, LSI1 P.M. - identifying your Home Purchasing Power - Tonya Esquibel, Summit Funding2 P.M. - dynamic dogwoods for your Home - Patrick Larkin, Cheekwood3 P.M. - Making a Home for Life: Things to Consider for Aging in Place - Cindy Natsch & Denise Becker, A Better Nest4 P.M. - Pet rescue Across the Country - Pilots & Paws







sPIKE REPoRT

Fifteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitmentnumbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of December 31, 2014.

Top 20 Big Spikes

Jim Ford 912Virgil Ray 821Bill King 776Mitzi Spann 688Terry Cobb 566Jim Fischer 566John Whitaker 408James Carbine 339Jennifer Earnest 331Dan Stern 306Kevin Hale 287Tonya Jones 271Reese Smith III 260David Crane 257Steve Moody 219Sonny Shackelford 218Trey Lewis 190Davis Lamb 187Cyril Evers 182Jackson Downey 174

Life Spikes

Tim Ferguson 171Jim McLean 164Louise Stark 163Harry Johnson 146Steve Cates 140C.W. Bartlett 138James Franks 132Tonya Alexander 128Sam Carbine 120Steve Hewlett 119Carmen Butner 108B.J. Hanson 102Dave McGowan 101Johnny Watson 101Julie DuPree 87Jeff Zeitlin 87Duane Vanhook 86Jordan Clark 85Erin Richardson 76Jeff Slusher 70John Baugh 68Wiggs Thompson 67Don Bruce 62Jim Ford, Jr. 62Hill McAlister 57Beth Sturm 55Joe Morgan 54John Broderick 53Gerald Bucy 53Michael Dillon 51David Hughes 50Lori Fisk-Conners 49Al Davis 47Sheila Rawlings 47Bernie Laine 46Greg Langley 46Benny Sullivan 46

Andrew Neuman 45Bryan Edwards 44Kay Russell 44John Ganschow 42Peggy Krebs 40David Lippe 38Andy Wyatt 37Chuck Clarkson 36Frank Miller 36Brad Butler 35Al Hacker 34Christina Cunningham 33Ray Edwards 32Dan Strebel 32Steve Wheeley 30Alvin Basel 29

Spikes

Don Mahone 19Marty Maitland 19Justin Hicks 18Jess Dillon 16Tracy Lomax 14Derenda Sircy 12Frank Tyree 12Pam Smith 10Randall Smith 10Don Alexander 9

(continued from page 9) 436,000 in sales.Meanwhile, residential remodeling activity is expected to register

a 3 percent gain this year over 2014.The ongoing housing recovery will see single-family starts steadily climb

from 49 percent of normal production at the end of the third quarter of 2014 all the way up to 90 percent of normal by the end of 2016, Crowe said. Examining the recovery on a state level, by the end of 2016, the top 40 percent of states will be [close] to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 75 percent.

Where are All the New Households?David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said the number of new household formations was far fewer in the current eco-nomic expansion than in previous recoveries.

“Give the job growth we’ve seen in 2014, there should have been better household forma-tions,” he said, adding that the slower pace may be because “the real acceleration in job growth has occurred in the last six months.”

As the economy and job growth continue to strengthen in 2015, Berson said this will be a “significant factor to encourage people who have doubled up to move out on their own.”

Moreover, he noted that the real slowdown in household formations has come from the Millennials, who have suffered disproportionately from stagnant wage growth and student debt. However, he added that this key demographic is getting older and ready to set down roots. “The leading edge are now in their young

30s,” said Berson. “Homeownership desire is much higher for those who are in their 30s than those in their 20s.”

A Rising Economy lifts HousingFreddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft also foresees a good year for housing.

“We’re projecting 3 percent economic growth in 2015, which would only be the second year in the last decade that we’ve seen growth at that lev-el,” said Nothaft. “A stronger economy supports a rise in household formation and home buying.”

Not quite as bullish as NAHB, Nothaft ex-pects that housing starts will rise about 15 per-cent in 2015, and that home sales will be up 4 percent, which would be the best year for home sales since 2007. He added that nationwide home prices this year should increase about 3.5 percent to 4 percent above last year’s level.

With 30-year mortgages currently running at about 3.75 percent, Nothaft called them “dirt cheap” and said he expects rates to rise this year but remain at affordable levels.

“If we see economic growth running at 3 percent at an annualized, rate, the Federal Re-serve should begin to push up short-term in-terest rates by the second half of 2015,” said

Nothaft. “We see mortgage rates going up to 4.5 percent on the high side at the end of this year, going from dirt cheap to cheap. Overall, affordability for buyers in most markets will be well maintained in the context of strong job and income growth.” n


1 2 3 4 5Sales & Marketing Council meeting

6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17Dickson County Chapter

meeting

18Remodelers

Council meeting

19 202015 HOME SHOW

Nashville Fairgrounds

212015 HOME SHOW


222015 HOME SHOW


23 24 25 26 27 28

1 2 3 4 5Sales & Marketing Council meeting

6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

fEBRUARY CALENdAR

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

CHAPTERS

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.Next meeting: Tuesday, February 17.Topic: “Legislative Update.” Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTERMaury County Chapter details are currently being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTERChapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: FRIDAY, February 20. Topic: “Home Show at the Fairgrounds.” Builders Free pending sponsorshipPrice: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTERNext meeting: to be announced.Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTERThe Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: to be announced.Builders Free pending sponsorship.Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTERThe Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309

COUNCILS

GREEN BUILDING COUNCILCouncil President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.Next meeting: to be announced.Topic: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCILCouncil President - Ricky Scott.The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.Next meeting: Wednesday, February 18.Location: to be announced. Topic: to be announced.Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCILThe Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.Next meeting: to be announced.Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCILCouncil President - Derenda Sircy.The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Thursday, February 5.Topic: “Dodd Franks impacts for sales agents.”SMC members FREE with RSVP thanks to THDA; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVPCouncil RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

CHAPTERs & CoUNCILs



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