Naman Sharma and Dan Lane School of Management, University of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5

Naman Sharmaand

Dan LaneSchool of Management, University of Ottawa

Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5

Thursday, April 20, 2023 SLIDE # 1OMRN CONFERENCE

What concerns?Need for reconciliation of the approaches for

culmination to effective management strategy.Decline criterion approach of COSEWIC.Reference point approach of DFO.

An integrated system approach based on Multicriteria decision analysis for complete perspectives of Fisheries System.


•Significant population declines

•The lack of rebuilding of the stocks results in drastic management measures - short-term and long-term moratoria on commercial fishing.

•Government recognizes the need to maximize the effectiveness of stock rebuilding efforts.

•Government also recognizes the need for feedback on effectiveness of measures taken.


Variation of Spawning Stock Biomass for Atlantic Cod

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Year

SSB (

tonn

es)

4T

4XW

2J3KL

3Pn4RS

3Ps

2J3KLNorthern cod

3PsSouthNfld cod

4V, 4WXMaritimes cod

3Pn4RSNorthGulf cod

4T SouthGulf cod

COSEWIC Threshold Approach DECLINE CRITERIA ENDANGERED THREATENED

TOTAL POPULATION

70% WITH THREATS CEASED;

i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALSSPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE

50% WITH THREATS CEASED;

50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONSUPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)

50% WITH THREATS CONTINOUS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONSUPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)

GEOGRAPHIC RANGE

i) EXTENT OF OCCURRENCE < 5,000 SQ KM < 20,000 SQ KM

ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE < 500 SQ KM < 2,000 SQ KM

iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 ≤ 10

iv) EXTREME FLUCTUATIONS > 1 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE > 1 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE

SMALL TOTAL POPULATION

i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 2500 MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 10,000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS

ii) RATE OF DECLINE

20% 10%

(IN 5 YEARS OR 2 GENERATIONS (IN 10 YEARS OR 3 GENERATIONS

UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS) UPTO MAXIMUM OF 100 YEARS)

VERY SMALL POPULATION

i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 250 MATURE INDIVIDUALS < 1000 MATURE INDIVIDUALS

ii) AREA OF OCCURRENCE < 20 SQ KM < 20 SQ KM

iii) NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ≤ 5 ≤ 5

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

i) PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION 20% IN 20 YEARS OR 5 GENERATIONS 10% IN 100 YEARS

SOURCE : http://www.cosewic.gc.ca/Thursday, April 20, 2023 SLIDE # 5OMRN CONFERENCE

COSEWIC SPECIES AGGREGATION STATUS ASSESSMENT

CRITERIACOD STOCKAGGREGATION

COSEWIC OBSERVATIONS (2003)

COSEWIC INTERPRETATION

TOTAL POPULATION

i) NUMBER OF MATURE INDIVIDUALS 2GHJ, 3KLNO 97% (1968-2001) ENDANGERED

SPAWNERS - 3X RATE OF DECLINE 3Ps, 3Pn4RS 81% (1974-2001) THREATENED

4T, 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X, 5ej,m 14% (1974-1997) SPECIAL CONCERN


DFO Reference Point ApproachBased on Precautionary framework defined by

Limit Reference PointsInclude the concept of Stock Status Zones to

determine Management measures.Stock Status Zones are

Critical Zone (Conservation Objective)Cautious Zone (Conservation and Socio-Economic) Healthy Zone (Conservation objective attained and

Socio-Economic objective optimized)


DFO vs. COSEWIC : Major Concerns

•Decline criterion and marine fish stocks•Special concern category•Stock aggregation•DFO Moratorium declaration•COSEWIC designations and SARA listing•Socio-economic consideration


Fisheries System Analysis

Current approaches do not deal with all aspects of the fishery system;

Federal Regulatory Policy (1999) requires analysis of all costs and benefits;

Fisheries Act of Canada (2006) requires sustainable Fishery for economic benefits of all Canadians.

Need for a system evaluation; consideration of multiple objectives and multiple components.

Application of principles of TQM to setting targets for multiple components.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a comprehensive approach to Fisheries as a system based on structured MCDM approach for the exploration and evaluation of different policy alternatives under different scenarios to understand fish stock status.


Model Name: 4TVN AHP DATAGRID

Treeview

Goal: Evaluation of management policy in the 4TVn fishery system

Biological: (L: .535)

Stock Biomass Target 3+ (L: .168)

Stock Biomass Target SSB 5+ (L: .370)

Fishing Mortality (L: .107)

Total Stock Abundance 3+ (L: .119)

Stock Recruitment (Age 3) (L: .235)

Economic: (L: .270)

Mobile Gear Fleet <45' (L: .211)

Mobile Gear ITQ Fleet <65' (L: .411)

Fixed Gear Fleet <65' (L: .174)

Fixed and Mobile Gear Fleet 65-100+' (L: .090)

Group Vessels Fleet (L: .115)

Social: (L: .120)

Employment (L: .500)

Labour Earnings (L: .500)

Administrative: (L: .075)

Personnel (L: .500)

Costs (L: .500)

* Distributive mode

Page 1 of 13/19/2007 8:30:03 AM

,


Table 5. 4TVn Cod Fishery System Objectives Dimension Indicator 4TVn Cod Target

Value Sources

1 Total Biomass (ages 3+) over 200,000 t (see also Figure 3)

2 Spawning Stock Biomass (ages 5+ proxy)

over 100,000 t (see also Figure 3)

3 Fishing Mortality under 0.30

4 Total Abundance (ages 3+) over 300,000 fish (see also Figure 1)

I. Biological

5 Recruitment (age 3) over 150,000 fish

Chouinard et al (2006-2001), Canada (2005a), FRCC (2003)

1 MG < 45’ Fleet NOI over $8,000 per yr

2 FG < 65’ Fleet NOI over $10,000 per yr

3 MG ITQ < 65’ Fleet NOI over $20,000 per yr

4 FG + MG 65-100+’ Fleet NOI over $50,000 per yr

II. Economic

5 Group Vessels Fleet NOI over $15,000 per yr

Canada (2007), Canada (2006a), Canada (2005a),

1 Employment (Annual FTEs) over 300 FTEs per yr III. Social

2 Labour Earnings over $15,000,000 per yr

Canada (2007), OECD (2000)

1 Personnel (Annual PYs) under 35 PYs IV. Administrative 2 Management Costs under $3,000,000

Canada (2003b), OECD (2000)


4TVn Strategic Analyses1. Historical review, 2001-20052. 2007 Policy Alternatives

Policy Description 2006 and 2007 Catches and Fs

Status Quo Low level of exploitation; average of 2004 and 2005

2300t; F=0.075

Moratorium No fishing 0t; F=0.0 Increased Catch High relative level of exploitation 5900t; F=0.2


Radar Graph of Biological Dimensions by Utility Measure

-0.050

0.050

0.150

0.250

0.350

Population abundance

Recruitment

Fishing mortalityPopulation biomass

SSB (proxy)

Weighted Target

Weighted Tolerance

Weighted Limit Value

2001 Weighted Utility






Radar Graph of 2007 Scenarios

System Dimensions by Utility Measure

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25Biological

Economic

Social

Administrative

Weighted Target

Weighted Tolerance

Weighted Limit Value

2007Mor

2007SQ

2007Catch


Table 10. Weighted Multicriteria Rankings for 2007 Policy Alternatives Fishery System Dimensions 1 2 3 4 Overall Biological Economic Social Administrative Weighted Values Green Weighted Target 0.535 0.27 0.12 0.075 1 Yellow Tolerance 0.401 0.203 0.090 0.056 Red Limit Value 0.268 0.135 0.060 0.038

Scenario 2007SQ Weighted Utility 0.198 0.005 0.010 0.067 0.280 2007Mor Weighted Utility 0.208 0.000 0.000 0.067 0.276 2007Catch Weighted Utility 0.182 0.038 0.023 0.067 0.309


•Production and Operations Management• Fisheries Management

•Stock status indicators•Quality control charts•Prespecified management actions


4TVn Cod2000-2006 VPA Annual 3+ Abundance Estimates from 1990

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Ag

es 3

+ A

bu

nd

an

ce (

000s f

ish

)

2000

2001

2002

2005

20062003

Healthy Zone: Ages 3+ Target

Critical Zone: Ages 3+ Limit

Cautious Zone: Ages 3+ Status Quo

4TVn CodMean Weights at Age 6 Calculated from VPA

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Mean

Weig

hts

at

Ag

e 6

Age 6 Target Weight

Age 6 Limit Weight


CONCLUSIONSFisheries as a comprehensive system Overall policy accountability and

performance measurement by performanceNeed for a strategic perspective based on

multicriteria (AHP)Need for an operational management

approach based on process control (TQM)


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Naman Sharma and Dan Lane School of Management, University of Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5

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