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Nangai (Ray) Yang

Office of Institutional Research

University of Northern Iowa

The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West External conditions

Demographic

Economic

Educational

Environmental

Political

Social

Technological

The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West External

Demographic

Global

The U. S.

Arizona

Metropolitan Phoenix

The university community

The Environmental Scan Study @ Arizona State University West Internal conditions

Planning

Enrollment

Budget

Faculty and staff

Faculty scholarship

Ray’s Learning Project Table of contents:

Introduction to UNI and environmental scanning

Demographics

Economic performance indicators

State support of higher education

Political landscape

UNI and its peer institutions

Environmental Scanning Definition: “A kind of radar to scan the world

systematically and signal the new, the unexpected, the major and the minor" (Brown & Weiner, 1985, p. ix)

Purpose: To enable decision makers to understand the external environment and the interconnections of its various sectors and to translate this understanding into the institution's planning and decision making processes (Aguilar, 1967)

Environmental Scanning Objectives for environmental scanning (Coates,

1985): Detecting scientific, technical, economic, social,

and political trends and events important to the institution

Defining the potential threats, opportunities, or changes for the institution implied by those trends and events

Promoting a future orientation in the thinking of management and staff

Alerting management and staff to trends that are converging, diverging, speeding up, slowing down, or interacting

Demographic Historical data about population, age groups,

gender, and ethnicity as well as population projections and estimates at the national level

Population composition and projections for Iowa and its neighboring states

Iowa’s county rankings in terms of current total population and population increase

49.3%50.7%

Sex Composition 2005

Male Female

Population – United States

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

14%

86%

Ethnic Composition 2005

Hispanic Non-Hispanic



7%

18%

63%

12%

Selected Age Cohorts 2005

Persons Under 5 Persons 6-18 Persons 19-64 Persons 65 and Over



County Number County Number

Polk 408,888 Cerro Gordo 44,384

Linn 201,853 Warren 43,926

Scott 162,621 Muscatine 42,883

Black Hawk 126,106 Des Moines 40,885

Johnson 118,038 Marshall 39,555

Woodbury 102,972 Webster 38,960

Dubuque 92,384 Jasper 37,409

Pottawattamie 90,218 Lee 36,338

Story 80,145 Wapello 36,010

Dallas 54,525 Marion 32,987

Clinton 49,782 Sioux 32,525

Iowa's Top 22 Counties by Population 2006

Population – Counties of Iowa

Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs

County % County %

Dallas 33.80 Dubuque 3.63

Madison 10.90 Dickinson 3.04

Polk 9.15 Iowa 2.99

Warren 8.00 Sioux 2.96

Mills 7.20 Marion 2.92

Benton 6.53 Pottawattamie 2.87

Johnson 6.33 Muscatine 2.78

Linn 5.30 Scott 2.49

Washington 4.16 Bremer 2.19

Iowa's Top 18 Counties by % Population Increase 2006

Population – Counties of Iowa

Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs

Economic Performance Indicators Real GDP growth in current dollars, Iowa and

neighboring states’ ranking in terms of real GDP growth

Personal income growth rate for the United States, Iowa, and its neighboring states

Top ranking Iowa counties in terms of personal income growth

Consumer price index variations Dow Jones industrial index fluctuations Job prospects for the nation, Iowa, and its

neighboring states

0.0%

0.9%

1.8%

2.7%

3.6%

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Real GDP Growth Rate 1997 - 2004, 2005

% Growth 97-04 % Growth 2005

GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

0

10

20

30

40

50

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Real GDP Growth Rate Ranking 1997 - 2004, 2005

Growth Rate Ranking 97-04 Growth Rate Ranking 2005

GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States

*Iowa ranks the lowest among its neighboring states in real GDP growth in 2005


$0

$300

$600

South Dakota

Nebraska Iowa Missouri Wisconsin Minnesota Illinois

Bill

ion

sPersonal Income Growth: Iowa and Its Neighboring States

2006: I - 2007: I

2006: I 2006: II 2006: III 2006: IV 2007: I

Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States


0

25

50

South Dakota

Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin Minnesota Missouri Illinois

Personal Income Growth Rate Ranking: Iowa and Its Neighboring States 2006: I - 2007: I

ranking

Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States


*Rankings among the 50 states, where the higher the ranking number, the lower the personal income growth rate is. Therefore, South Dakota and Iowa have very low personal income growth rate.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Polk Linn Dallas Scott Mills Johnson Dickinson Wright Iowa Muscatine

Top 10 Counties in Iowa by Per Capita Personal Income Growth: 2005

Ranking

*Polk County has the fastest personal income growth

Per Capita Personal Income Growth – Iowa

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

0

70

140

210

1983 1986 1996 2006

Selected Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers US City Average All items 1982 - 1984 = 100

Annual Average

Consumer Price Index – United States

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Compound Annual Rate: 3-Mos Ended, May 07

Unadjusted 12-Mos. Ended May '07

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percent Changes in CPI for Urban Consumers 3-Mos Ended and12-Mos Ended Special Indices, May 2007

All Items Food Energy All Items Less Than Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index – United States


Dow Jones Industrial Index2000-2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

Start of Year High Close Low Close Year's Close

Stock Market – Dow Jones Industrial Index

Source: Dow Jones Averages Statistics

0% 20% 40% 60%

Home Health Aides

Network Systems and Data …

Medical Assistants

Physician Assistants

Computer Software Engineers, …

Physical Therapist Assistants

Dental Hygienists

Computer Software Engineers, System …

Dental Assistants

Personal and Home Care Aides

10 Occupations with the Fastest Growth Rate: 2004 - 2014

Percent

Jobs – United States


10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment, 2004 - 2014

Pharmacists

Physicians and surgeons

Chiropractors

Optometrists

Veterinarians

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists

Postsecondary teachers

Computer and information scientists, research

Biochemists and biophysicists

Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists



0% 20% 40% 60%

Network systems & data communications …

Physician assistants (B)

Computer software engineers, applications (B)

Computer software engineers, systems software (B)

Network and computer systems administrators (B)

Database administrators (B)

Physical therapists (M)

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists (D)

Occupational therapists (M)

Postsecondary teachers (D)

10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014

Percent



0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100

Postsecondary teachers (D)General and operations managers (B)

Elementary school teachers, except special ed (B)Accountants and auditors (B)

Secondary school teachers, except special & voc. …Computer software engineers, applications (B)

Middle school teachers, except special & voc. ed (B)Physicians and surgeons (FP)

Computer systems analysts (B)Lawyers (FP)

Thousands

10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014

Employment 2004 Job Openings



5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's Degree Holders,

2004 - 2014

Elementary school teachers, except special education

Accountants and auditors

Computer software engineers, applications

Computer systems analysts

Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education



5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Master's Degree Holders, 2004

- 2014

Physical therapists

Clergy

Educational, vocational, and school counselors

Instructional coordinators

Rehabilitation counselors



5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Increases in Employment for First Professional Degree Holders,

2004 - 2014

Physicians and surgeons

Lawyers

Pharmacists

Dentists

Chiropractors



5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Doctoral Degree Holders,

2004 - 2014


Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists

Computer and information scientists, research

Biochemists and biophysicists



5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's or Higher Degree

Holders, Plus Work Experience, 2004 - 2014

General and operations managers

Management analysts

Financial managers

Computer and information systems managers

Sales managers



-60%

-40%

-20%

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…10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Job Decline by

Percent: 2004 - 2014



0% 20% 40% 60%

Computer software engineers, applications

Computer software engineers, systems software

Network systems and data communications analysts

Biomedical engineers

Physician assistants

Network and computer systems administrators

Database administrators


Industrial engineers

Vocational education teachers, middle school

Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014

Growing Percent

Jobs – Iowa

Source: http://www.acinet.org

Jobs – Iowa

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Elementary school teachers, except special education

Secondary school teachers, except special and …

General and operations managers


Accountants and auditors

Middle school teachers, except special and vocational …


Financial managers

Insurance sales agents

Medical and health services managers

Iowa's 10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher 2004 - 2014

Employment 2004 Job Openings

Source: http://www.acinet.org

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Farmers and Ranchers

Retail Salespersons

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-…

Cashiers, except Gaming

Office clerks, General

Registered Nurses

Team Assemblers

Janitors and Cleaners, except Maids …

Waiters and Waitresses

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and …

Iowa's 10 Occupations with the Largest Number of Employment: 2004

Number for 2004

Source: The careeronestop website

Jobs – Iowa

0%

20%

40%

60%

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Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations: 2004 - 2014

Jobs – Iowa

Source: The careeronestop website

Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Nonfarm Employment: May 06 - May 07

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing

Insurance Carriers and Related Activities

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Computer and Electronic Product

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing

Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods

Transportation and Warehousing

Transportation and Utilities

Construction

Educational Services

Percent

Jobs – Iowa

Source: Iowa Workforce Development

State Support of Higher Education State appropriations to higher education over

different time periods in Iowa and neighboring states

State appropriations as percentages of revenue in Iowa and neighboring states

State appropriations for operating expenses of higher education in Iowa and neighboring states

0%

20%

40%

60%

Iow

a

Mis

sou

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Wis

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ska

So

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Iowa & Neighboring States' 10-Year % Change in State Appropriations for Higher Education 1997 - 2007

% Change

State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Mis

sou

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Iow

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Illino

is

Wis

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Iowa & Neighboring States' % Change in State Appropriations for Higher Ed between 2000 & 2006

% Change

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Illino

is

Neb

raska

Wis

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sin

Mis

sou

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Min

ne

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Iow

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So

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Dako

ta

Iowa & Neighboring States' State, Local, and Net Tuition Revenue for Higher Education FY 2006

State Source Local Tax Appropriations Net Tuition

Source: Population and tax revenues data from U.S. Census Bureau


Political Landscape Data on political representation in the Iowa

legislature: Democrat seats vs. Republican seats in the state house and senate

0

20

40

60

80

20

07

-20

08

20

05

-20

06

20

03

-20

04

20

01

-20

02

19

99

-20

00

19

97

-19

98

19

95

-19

96

Iowa State House of Representatives by Party 1995 - 2008

Republicans Democrats

Political Landscape – Iowa House of Representatives

Source: The Iowa Legislature General Assembly website

UNI and Peer Institutions Carnegie classification (levels of program, size and

setting)

Enrollment

High school graduates

Graduation rates

Scholarship (revenue and financial aid)

Faculty and staff

Institution Name

Carnegie

Classification 2005

University of Northern Iowa (UNI) 13

Northern Arizona University (NAU) 13

California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno) 11

Illinois State University (Ill State) 14

Indiana State University (Ind. State) 13

Central Michigan University (Central Mich) 13

University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth) 10

University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro) 11

Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main) 14

University of North Texas (U of N Texas) 11

University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire) 10

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Undergrad. Programs)

Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

10 Balanced Arts & Sciences/Professions, Some Graduate Existence 11 Balance Arts & Sciences/Professions, High Graduate Existence12 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, No Graduate Existence 13 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, Some Graduate Existence14 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, High Graduate Existence

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Grad. Programs)

Institution Name

Carnegie

Classification 2005



Indiana State University (Ind State) 18










4 Postbacclaureate Comprehensive 8 Postbacclaureate with Some Arts & Sciences, Other Dominant Fields12 Single Doctoral (Education) 14 Comprehensive Doctoral with Medical/Veterinary15 Comprehensive Doctoral (No Medical/Veterinary) 18 Doctoral, Professional Dominant

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Size & Settings)

Institution Name

Carnegie

Classification 2005









Indiana State University (Ind State) 13



13 Medium Four-Year, Primarily Residential 15 Large Four-Year, Primarily Nonresidential

16 Large Four-Year, Primarily Residential


0%

20%

40%

60%

Cal S

tate

Fre

sn

o

Ce

ntra

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h

UN

C G

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oro

UW

Ea

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NA

U

Ind

Sta

te

Ill Sta

te

U o

f N T

exa

s

Oh

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Main

U o

f Min

n D

ulu

th

UN

IUNI & Peer Institutions' Student Enrollment 2005

Enrollment of Students Applied Enrollment of Students Admitted

UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Enrollment


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

UNI's Top 10 Sources of Enrollment in Iowa 2002-2006

Fall 2006 Fall 2005 Fall 2004 Fall 2003 Fall 2002

UNI and Its Peer Institutions - UNI’s Sources of Enrollment in Iowa

0

50

100

150

So

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Dako

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Neb

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Iow

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Mis

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Min

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Wis

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Illino

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Th

ou

sa

nd

sIowa & Neighboring States' High School Graduates Projection

2003-04 Proj. 04-05 Proj. 09-10 Proj. 14-15

High School Graduates – Iowa and Its Neighboring States

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

U o

f N T

exa

s

Ind

Sta

te

U o

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ulu

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UN

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NA

U

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sn

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Cen

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ich

UW

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UN

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Oh

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Main

UNI & Peer Institutions' Total and White Graduation Rates 2004

Total White

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Graduation Rates


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NA

U

Cen

tral M

ich

Cal S

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Fre

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U o

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Ind

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UW

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UN

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UN

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Oh

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Main

UNI & Peer Institutions' Tenured Faculty 2005

Tenured and on Tenure Track

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff


0%

25%

50%

Ill Sta

te

U o

f N T

exa

s

Ind

Sta

te

Oh

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Main

UN

I

Cen

tral M

ich

Cal S

tate

Fre

sn

o

UW

Ea

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laire

U o

f Min

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ulu

th

UN

C G

ree

nsb

oro

NA

UUNI & Peer Institutions' Instructional and Executive Staff 2005

Instruction Exec/Manag

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff


0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Top 10 UNI Faculty's Bachelors Degree Alma Mater Institutions 2007- 2008

UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty

0

20

40

60

Top 20 Feeder Institutions for UNI Doctoral Degree Holding Faculty 2007- 2008

UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty

$0

$60

$120

$180

Ind

Sta

te

UW

Ea

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laire

UN

I

Cal S

tate

Fre

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UN

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th

NA

U

Ill Sta

te

U o

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exa

s

Cen

tral M

ich

Oh

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Main

Mill

ion

sUNI & Peer Institutions' Tuition and Fees after Deduction, State Appropriations,

and Total Other Revenues and Additions 2003 - 2004

Tuition and fees, after deducting discounts and allowances

State appropriations

Total other revenues and additions

UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Revenues


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

UW

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NA

U

Oh

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Main

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teUNI & Peer Institutions' Average Amount of Institutional Grant Aid

Students Received 2003 - 2004

Average Grant Aid Amount Students Received

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

UW

Ea

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UN

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NA

UUNI & Peer Institutions' % of Students Receiving Institutional

Grant Aid 2003 - 2004

Percentage of Students Receiving Institutional Grant Aid

UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid


Implications Generic, not tied to any specific initiative

Questions?

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