NASA Earth Science Enterprise

Overview

NASA Earth Science Enterprise

Overview

NASA’s Earth Science EnterpriseNASA’s Earth Science Enterprise

Ronald J. BirkSpecial Assistant to Associate Administrator

version 2.0

Ronald J. BirkSpecial Assistant to Associate Administrator

version 2.0

Research Strategy

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Applications Strategy

Strategy Hierarchy

www.earth.nasa.gov

Science

Applications

Earth Science Enterprise

Technology & Missions

Mission: Focus on weather, climate, & natural hazards

ApplicationsResearch

Validation &Verification

ApplicationsDemonstration

Transition

Natural Hazards

NRC NaturalHazards Roundtable

SESWG

National Hazards Center

Operational Imperatives

Federal

State

Tribal

Local

Industry

Global Change

USGCRPIPCC

NRC

AdvancedWeather

Prediction

EarthScience

Knowledge

Predictions

Petabytes

Terabytes

Gigabytes Megabytes

Autonomous, In-spaceCalibration and Data

Reduction

Interaction BetweenModeling/Forecasting

and ObservationSystems

InteractiveDissemination

Multi-platform, multi-parameter, high

spatial and temporal resolution, remote &

in-situ sensing

Advanced Sensors Processing Webs

DRY

DRY

DRY

WARM

VERY WET

WET

WET

WET

VERYDRY

COLD

COLD

Access to KnowledgeInformationSynthesis

Roadmap from Data to Decision Support - Knowing what crops to grow next summer

NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Pioneers Scientific Observation of the Earth

Our Mission:

Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations

Our Mission:

Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations

Science Views Earth as a Dynamic System

Forces acting on the Earth systemForces acting on the Earth system

Earth system responseEarth system response IMPACTS

Feedback

Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as

increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as

increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

Science Questions

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes?

• What are the consequences of changes in the Earth system for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes to the Earth system?

Requires both systematic & exploratory satellites

Requires systematic satellite observations

Requires exploratory satellite observations

Requires pre-operational and/or systematic/expl

Use available/new observations in better models 12/20/00

Variability

Precipitation, evaporation &

cycling of water changing?

Precipitation, evaporation &

cycling of water changing?

Global ocean circulation varying?

Global ocean circulation varying?

Global ecosystems changing?

Global ecosystems changing?

Stratospheric ozone changing?

Stratospheric ozone changing?

Ice cover mass changing?

Ice cover mass changing?

Motions of Earth & interior

processes?

Motions of Earth & interior

processes?

Forcing

Atmospheric constituents & solar

radiation on climate?

Atmospheric constituents & solar

radiation on climate?

Changes in land cover & land use?

Changes in land cover & land use?

Surface transformation?

Surface transformation?

Response

Clouds & surface hydrological

processes on climate?

Clouds & surface hydrological

processes on climate?

Ecosystem responses & affects

on global carbon cycle?

Ecosystem responses & affects

on global carbon cycle?

Changes in global ocean circulation?

Changes in global ocean circulation?

Stratospheric trace constituent responses?

Stratospheric trace constituent responses?

Sea level affected by climate

change?

Sea level affected by climate

change?

Pollution effects?Pollution effects?

Consequence

Weather variation related to climate variation?

Weather variation related to climate variation?

Consequences in land cover & land use?

Consequences in land cover & land use?

Coastal region change?

Coastal region change?

Prediction

Weather forecasting improvement?

Weather forecasting improvement?

Transient climate variations?

Transient climate variations?

Trends in long-term climate?

Trends in long-term climate?

Future atmospheric chemical impacts?

Future atmospheric chemical impacts?

Future concentrations of

carbon dioxide and methane?

Future concentrations of

carbon dioxide and methane?

Measurement Requirements for NASA Earth Science Research Strategy

Exploratory - Exploration of Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstration of Technologies

Exploratory - Exploration of Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstration of Technologies

GRACE

CALIPSO

Cloudsat

EO-1

SRTM

Triana

GIFTS

Systematic Missions - Observation of Key Earth System InteractionsSystematic Missions - Observation of Key Earth System Interactions

Terra AuraAquaLandsat 7

QuikSCAT ICEsat Jason-1

ESE Spaceborne Missions

SeaWinds

Land, Oceans, Atmosphere

• NPOESS Preparatory Project (2005/06)

• Landsat Data Continuity Mission (2005)

• Global Precipitation Mission (2007)

• Ocean Topography Mission (2006)

• Ocean Surface Winds (2006)

• Total Column Ozone/Aerosols (2008)

• Solar Irradiance (2006)

Terra, Aqua

Landsat 7

TRMM

TOPEX, Jason

QuikSCAT, SeaWinds

TOMS, OMI

ACRIMsat, SORCE

Terra, Aqua

Landsat 7

TRMM

TOPEX, Jason

QuikSCAT, SeaWinds

TOMS, OMI

ACRIMsat, SORCE

EOS EraEOS Era

How are global precipitation, evaporation, and the cycling of water changing? (V1)

What are the motions of the Earth and Earth’s interior? (V6)

What trends in atmospheric constituents and solar radiation are driving global climate? (F1)

How is the Earth’s surface being transformed…? (F2)

What are the effects of clouds and surface hydrological processes on climate change? (R1)

How do ecosystems respond to and affect global environmental change and the global carbon cycle? (R2)

How can climate variations induce changes in global ocean circulation? (R3)

How do stratospheric trace constituents respond to change in climate and chemical composition? (R4)

How is global sea level affected by climate change? (R5)

What are the effects of regional pollution on the global atmosphere…? (R6)

Soil moisture

Gravity field (GRACE)

Stratospheric aerosols (CALIPSO)

Land surface topography/deformation

Cloud particle properties (Cloudsat)

Snow cover/Freeze-thaw transition

Biomass changes (VCL)

Carbon sources & sinks

Ocean salinity

Sea ice thickness

Atmospheric properties in tropopause region

Ice sheet velocity fields

Tropospheric ozone & precursors

Exploratory Measurement Needs

Remote Sensing Data Types

Multispectral Hyperspectral

Synthetic Aperture RadarLidar Scatterometer

Thermal

Private Sector RS Systems

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2

SPOT 4

EROS A1Orbview 3

Airborne RS Systems

•Positive Systems ADAR• ESSI Probe •WEI LaserMap •Daedalus TMS•ITRES CASI •TerraSystems DMSV•Intermap STAR-3i•EarthData Lidar•Emerge MSI•Eaglescan Lidar•Calgis GEOSAR•ERIM Air Lidar

...To enable timely and affordable delivery of Earth Science data and information to users

Technology Emphasis Areas

ComputingGeospatial

Earth System Science in the future will leverage three ongoing technology revolutions:

Communications

2000 2007 2015

Time

Incre

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ap

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300 mJ @ 355 nm1 m ø telescope

25% eff. det.

1 J @ 3553 m ø telescope

35% eff. Det.holographic scanning

3 J @ 355 nm10 m ø telescope

50% eff det.

Doppler Winds (Direct Detection)

500mJ, 10Hz.5 m optics

NPOESS1 J, 12.5 Hz.75 - 1 m

optics

Doppler Winds (Coherent Detection)ICESAT

100mJ, 40Hz.8 m optics

X2 lifetime>efficiency<mass, cost

LASER Altimetry

0.1 - 0.5 mhgt. res.

VCL<1m hgt. res.

Atmospheric Chemistry,Clouds/Aerosols

P-Cclouds & aerosolsH/V res.

250 m/30 m

UV DIAL O3 & trace

gases

Direct CO2 Multi-kHz microlaser

altimeter~cm 3D res.

Scanning H2O DIAL

LIDAR Roadmap

OpticalOpticalCrosslinkCrosslink

PassivePassiveOpticalOptical

• Interoperating Interoperating Measurement Measurement Systems (Air / Systems (Air / Spacecraft / In-situ)Spacecraft / In-situ)

• Flexible Flexible Measurement Measurement

Network Network ArchitectureArchitecture

• Direct Distribution Direct Distribution of of Derived ProductsDerived Products

• Network Computing-Network Computing-in-the-Skyin-the-Sky

Ka CrosslinkKa Crosslink

In-situ UserIn-situ UserPC Based GSPC Based GSComm Comm

GatewayGateway MetadataMetadataWarehouseWarehouse

Reconfigurable CommunicationsDistributed Information-System-in-the-Sky

CommercialCommercialCommunication Communication

NetworkNetwork

Active Active OpticalOptical

Data Mining/Data Mining/Date Fusion SitesDate Fusion Sites

KaKa

Optical CrosslinkOptical Crosslink

KaKa

KaKa

Internal NASA Use Only

10

10

10

10

10

10

9

10

11

12

13

14

10

10

15

16

1010 10 10 1010 10 10

Data

Siz

e,

Byte

s

2001

TeraFLOPSGigaFLO PS PetaFLOPS

109 1410 11 12 13 15 16 17 18

ExaFLOPS

Real Demonstrated Performance doing useful Science

10Compute Speed, FLOPS

2020

Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Computational Modeling in Two Stages;Driving Evolution & Enabling RevolutionDriving Evolution & Enabling Revolution

EvolutionaryEvolutionary

RevolutionaryRevolutionary

2010

2 x 2 resolution;synoptic scales

2005

.25 x .25 resolution;hurricanes, storm fronts

.25 x .25 resolution;add cloud, chemistry,& radiat ion effects

Fully interactive (biology,chemistry, physics)

ensemble simulations inan operational mode

2015

Nanotechnology

InformationPower Grid

HeterogeneousCluster

HomogeneousCluster

Interactivephysics, biology,chemistry;

assimilat ion ofsatellite data

Computational Climate Modeling

EO-1: Successful Hyperspectral MissionQuickTime™ and aSorenson Video decompressorare needed to see this picture.

EO-1, Landsat 7, and Terra demonstrate Formation Flying

QuickTime™ and aVideo decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

EOSDIS

Flight Operations,Data Capture,Initial Processing,Backup Archive

DataTransportto DAACs

Science DataProcessing,Info Mgmt, DataArchive, & Distribution

Distribution,Access,

Interoperability,Reuse

EOSSpacecraft

NASAIntegrated

ServicesNetwork(NISN)MissionServices

NASAInternet

Value-AddedProviders

InteragencyData

Centers

Int’l Partners& DataCenters

Data Acquisition

White SandsComplex(WSC)

Tracking& Data

Relay Satellite(TDRS)

ResearchUsers

EducationUsers

DistributedActive

ArchiveCenters

InstrumentTeams

Data Processing

&MissionControl

EOS Polar Ground Stations

Land

GTECBIOME-BGCCENTURYBIOME3TEM

Oceans

ROMSHOPEOCCAMPOM

Atmosphere

MM5AGCMGISSHadley Center

Earth System ModellingEarth System Modelling

Ocean Circulation

Weather

TODAY Goals for 2010

3-Day forecast at 93%*

7 Day forecast at 62%*

3 day rainfall forecast not achievable

Hurricane landfall +/-400Km at 2-3 days

Air quality day by day

6-12 month seasonal prediction experimental; achieved an understanding of El Nino mechanics

Decadal climate prediction with coarse models and significant uncertainties in forcing and response factors

Demonstrate centimeter-level measurement of land deformation

Accurate characterization of long-term tectonic motions, but no short-term earthquake forecast capability

Accurate characterization of volcanic activity, but no long-term prediction accuracy

5-Day forecast at >90%*

7-10 Day forecast at 75%*

3 day rainfall forecast routine

Hurricane landfall +/-100Km at 2-3 days

Air quality forecast at 2 days

6-12 month seasonal prediction routine;12-24 months experimental

10 year climate forecasts experimental; moderate to high confidence in forcing & response factors

Continuous monitoring of surface deformation in vulnerable regions with millimeter accuracy

Improved temporal dimension of earthquake & volcanic eruption forecasts

Improve post-eruption hazard assessment

Climate

Natural Hazards

* Accuracy refers to sea level pressure forecasts over Northern Hemisphere during winter.

Science Goals

Evolution of Earth Science at NASA

• 1960s to 1980s: Exploring the Possibilities – Birth and early development of satellite remote sensing– Technology demonstration was the driver

• 1990 to 2000: Surveying the Earth System– Birth and evolution of the Earth System Science concept– Focus on providing a broad suite of observations to observe, document

and understand Earth system change

• 2000 to 2020: Focus on National Needs– Answer high-priority science questions with profound

national/international economic and policy relevance– End-to-end science, technology & applications approach

• 2020 and Beyond: Enabling Ubiquitous Use of the View From Space– Information delivery from space to decision-makers’ desktops in a timely

and affordable manner

Applications Imperative

Putting (ESE) knowledge to work (NRC 2001):

Ensure an “intimate connection” to extend research and technologies being developed by the Enterprise through partnerships with Federal Agencies, Academia, and the Private Sector on operational activities to baseline solutions for decision support systems to serve the national interest

Precision Agriculture

Weather Prediction Aviation Safety

Intelligent Transportation Systems

ESE and Applications Missions

The NASA Earth Science Enterprise mission is to:

• “Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations.”

The Enterprise Applications Program mission is to:

• “Expand and accelerate the realization of economic and societal benefits from Earth science, information, and technology.” (ESE, Strategic Plan 2001)

Theme Areas

• Resource ManagementManagement of renewable and nonrenewable natural resources including: Agriculture, Forestry, Rangeland, Fisheries, Fossil Fuel, Extraction, Renewable Energy.

• Disaster ManagementNatural hazards applied research and applications development, manmade disasters:Earthquakes, Volcanic Eruptions, Landslides, Wildfires, Floods, Severe Storms, Tsunamis, Coastal Change, and Land subsidence.

• Community Growth and InfrastructureTransportation, Infrastructure and Utilities, Urban Planning, and Conservation/Preservation, and Human Impacts on land use.

• Environmental AssessmentAssessment of Air, Water, and Land environments, and Ecosystems, and the effect of natural and human-made changes on these environments.

Implementation Priority Criteria

Priority Criteria

Program Prioritization Criteria

Socioeconomic Value

Application Feasibility

Mandated Program

Appropriate for NASA

Partnership Opportunity*

Science & Technology Readiness

Program Balance

Cost / Budget Context* Includes potential for handoff

to operational systems

Socioeconomic Value

Weather & Energy

• The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1B if the accuracy of 30 hour weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Earth Science & Aviation

• The projected annual savings of operating aircraft using advanced Synthetic Vision Systems at just 10 airports in the U.S. in one year is over $2B.

Vision for 2025 and Beyond

• Enabling Ubiquitous Use of the View From Space

– Information delivery from space to decision-makers’ desktops in a timely and affordable manner

UniversitiesUniversities

Federal AgenciesFederal Agencies

StateGovernme

ntsState

Governments

ScientistsScientistsNASA

CentersNASA

Centers

LocalGovernme

ntsLocal

Governments

International Partners

International Partners

Agreements

• USDA Ag 20/20 Precision Agriculture

• FEMA Flood Map Modernization Program

• USGS National Map Program

• NOAA Coastal Land Use & Land Cover Mapping

• NIMA Homeland Security

• DOT Intelligent Transportation Systems

• FGDC National Spatial Data Infrastructure

• USAID Vulnerability Assessments

• CCAD Biological Corridor Analysis

• NIH Early Warning for Vector borne diseases

PrivatePublic

Spatial Information Cycle

Decision SupportSystems

DataSources/

Measurements

DataDistribution/Management

Standards-based

Products

• EvaluationEvaluation

• VerificationVerification

• ValidationValidation

• DemonstrationDemonstration

TaskingTasking

ProcessingProcessing ExploitationExploitation

DistributionDistribution

NASA ESENASA ESE

EOS,ESSPNMP

EOS,ESSPNMP

EOSDIS,ESIP

EOSDIS,ESIP

24 Measurement Sets24 Measurement Sets

Prediction ModelsPrediction Models

Program Outputs

Verification and Validation Reports

• Benchmark approach and results of analysis

Application Prototypes and Guidelines

• Documented prototypes and guidelines (procedures) that can serve as benchmarks for potential operational implementation

Assessment for Commercial Implementation

• Analyses of limitations of solutions based on currently available technologies

Guidance for Next Generation R&D

• Recommendations for next generation investments in earth science and technology research and development

Improving Efficiency of Agriculture

An applications research project with the University of Kansas has led to it’s spinning off a new business in crop yield forecasting

An applications research project with the University of Kansas has led to it’s spinning off a new business in crop yield forecasting

A partnership with USDA and four growers associations representing

100,000 US farmers is demonstrating new techniques for precision agriculture

A partnership with USDA and four growers associations representing

100,000 US farmers is demonstrating new techniques for precision agriculture

Managing Wildfires

The US Forest Service has established two direct broadcast receiving installations to acquire Terra satellite data, and enable daily, near real-time distribution

and decision making on allocation of fire fighting assets.

The US Forest Service has established two direct broadcast receiving installations to acquire Terra satellite data, and enable daily, near real-time distribution

and decision making on allocation of fire fighting assets.

Informing Aviation

•Digital Atmospheric Data

•Digital Terrain Data

RTCA Aviation Terrain Database Specs

HorizontalAccuracy

Data Integrity

VerticalAccuracy

VerticalResolution

PublicationTimeliness

Post Spacing

AREA 1The World

AREA 2Terminal

50 m 2.5 m5 m

Routine (10-3) Essential (10-5)

30 m 1.0 m3 m

1.0 m 0.1 m0.1 m

90% 90% 90%

As required As required As required

3.0 arc sec(100m)

0.3 arc sec(10m)

1.0 arc sec(30m)

AREA 3Aerodrome

Essential (10-5)

Confidence level

LE90

Source SRTM IFSAR Lidar

ESE Results for Aviation Roadmap

Applications Research

Validation & Verification

Applications Demonstration

2002 2003 2005-2006 2008-2010

NOAA

Operations

NASA

SCIENCE

TECHNOLOGY

APPLICATIONS

Research

AviationWeather

InformationProd. Dev. Phase - 1

Prod. Dev.Phase - 2

Prod. DevPhase - 3

FAA Integrated Product Development Team

Meteorology

PAVE

GAP

GIFTS DEMO

GOES-R (5)

NAST-I(ER-2)

AIRES (AQUA)CrIS (NPP)

GIFTS

Application Scenarios

• Weather and Aviation

• Weather, Climate and Agriculture/Forestry

• Weather, Climate, Natural Hazards and Community Disaster Preparedness

• Weather, Climate and Human Health

• Weather, Climate and Energy

• Weather, Hazards and Homeland Security

Partnerships

• Public Sector

• Academic Sector

• Research Sector

• Private Sector

• Centers of Excellence

Public Sector Partners

USGS

Research Sector Partners

NASA Centers

+

+

+

NASA Langley Research Center

Goddard Space Flight Center

Goddard Space Flight Center

Larry/programs/resacs/resacs_map_w_text.ppt

Regional Earth Science Applications Centers

Affiliated Research CentersAffiliated Research Centers

Private Sector Partnerships

Summary

• ESE focuses on extending the use of Earth science and remote sensing technologies through applications for nationally important areas of decision support.

• ESE provides systems engineering and verification and validation within a framework of the elements of data sources, data products, data distribution, and decision support systems associated with geospatial information.

• ESE works in partnerships with information community.

• Our challenge and opportunity is to identify, and realize the potential for, earth science and remote sensing technology solutions to contribute spatial information products to serve decision support system objectives that are in the national interest.

Applications

Advanced Products & Technology Development

Community Growth and InfrastructureTransportation, Infrastructure and Utilities, Urban Planning, and Conservation / Preservation, and Human Impacts on land use.

Resource ManagementManagement of renewable and nonrenewable natural resources including: Agriculture, Forestry, Rangeland, Fisheries, Fossil Fuel, Extraction, Renewable Energy

Disaster ManagementNatural hazards applied research and applications development, manmade disasters:Earthquakes, Volcanic Eruptions, Landslides, Wildfires, Floods, Severe Storms, Tsunamis, Coastal Change, and Land subsidence.

Environmental AssessmentAssessment of Air, Water, and Land environments, and Ecosystems, and the effect of natural and human-made changes on these environments.

Exploratory

Multi-ThemeLand use/Land cover; Weather & Climate

Thank you