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National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts - a view of the crisis
UCC 9 March 2011
Michael Connolly
Integration and Large Cases Division, National Accounts
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 2
A Visual Guide to the Financial Crisis by Jess Bachman
Jess from WallStats put this together for the Mint blog. I'm pretty sure they have him on retainer.
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 3
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 4
GDP – GNPGap widening
European ComparisonsGDP Seasonally Adjusted, Chain Linked
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 5
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 6
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Expenditure components of GDP (2009)
GDP = C + I + G + X - M
= GDP
Consumption
52%
Government
15.8%
Investment
11.8%
Exports
97%
Imports
76.6%
+ + + -
Exports & Imports of Goods and Services as % GDP - 2006
23 November 2010 Globalisation –Impact3
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 8
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 9
= GDP
GDP by Sector of Origin (2009)
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 10
Proportions of GDP by Activity - Value Added Type 2002 - 2010
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 11
GDP by Sector of Origin/Expenditure Based – Bread Economy
Baker buys flour and makes bread sells bread at €4 to shop
Farmer grows wheat sells to miller @ €1 per bag
Miller buys wheat makes flour sells flour to baker for €2 per bag
Shop buys bread and sells it to customers at €6.00
GDP by Sector of Origin : Sum of value added :Farmer (€1) +Miller (€1) +Baker €2+Shopkeeper €2) = €6.00 = GDP Bread Economy
Expenditure Based GDP Estimate :Total sales of Bread to Households = €6.00 = GDP Expenditure
How Do We Calculate Constant Prices?
Several methods
deflation of current price data
using CPI for example
extrapolation using volume index
using Industrial Production Index or RSI
double deflation
separately deflate outputs and inputs
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 12
Chain Linking - Rationale
Previously used a fixed base year (1995).
Each year’s GVA calculated to a base of previous year.
Benefit of more up-to-date weights than with fixed base calculations.
Year-on-year changes then linked together and GVA expressed in prices of reference year.
Components do not add to total GDP, as GDP is chain-linked separately using sum of components’ GVA’s at previous year prices.
Statistical discrepancy cannot be calculated.
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 13
Creating a Chain Linked Series of GDP
referenced to 2008
Year Current PricesPrevious Year Prices Growth rate Chain Linked
2002 130,464 124,804 144,876
2003 140,008 136,219 4.4% 151,267
2004 149,344 146,446 4.6% 158,223
2005 162,314 158,329 6.0% 167,742
2006 177,343 170,952 5.3% 176,669
2007 189,374 187,321 5.6% 186,609
2008 179,989 182,655 -3.5% 179,989
2009 159,646 166,345 -7.6% 166,345
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 14
For 2003 Growth rate = 136,219/ 130,464 = 4.4% . Chain link 2003 to 2004 158,223/1.044 = 151,267
Inputs into National Accounts
Macro Balance of Payments Industry and Services
statistics Prices data Labour Market Administrative data -
Corp Tax etc. Trade
FISIM
Micro – Large Cases Unit Consistency of LCU data
across survey areas
Consistency of Prices data
Consistency of administrative data - Corporation Tax and Trade Data
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 15
Globalisation in the Irish Economy
Irish economy has developed into a highly Globalised Economy
For MNCs in Ireland top 10 account for 34% of value of exports and 33% of imports
23 November 2010 Globalisation –Impact
16
Exports %GDP Imports %GDP
Goods 44 30
Services 38 40
Total 82 70
Large Cases & Consistency Network
23 November 201012
Large Cases Unit &Consistency
Employment in Industry 1985-2005
23 November 2010Globalisation –Impact
Industry Output - by ownership 1985 - 2005
Numbers Employed and Output per Head
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 20
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 21
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 22
Central Statistics Office, Ireland 23
Summary and Conclusions
The quarterly National Accounts give a comprehensive picture of where the economy is positioned
Benefits from Chain linking of constant price data compared to fixed base year indexation
Extensive data sources obtained both within and outside of CSO
Strategy for dealing with MNC statistics through Consistency Unit
Distortions to Macro economic variables
GDP
Productivity
23 November 2010 Globalisation –Impact