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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This...

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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M) Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22% Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%
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Page 1: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS

2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000

Up 24% from 2011

This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22%

Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%

Page 2: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

CORE LOGIC

IN 2012:

• Total Homes Sales Increased 6%

• Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11%

• REO Sales Declined 20%

(3rd consecutive decline)

• Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9%

• Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)

Page 3: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

GLAR MLS 2012• Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive

Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)

Houses Sold on MLS

‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12 vs.’11

15,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9%

Median Sales Price

‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12 vs.’11

138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0 134.1 140.0 +4.3%

• Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in ’12 vs. ‘11

Page 4: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Residential Building Permits 2012

2012 2011 ’12 vs ’11Jefferson 1003 671 +49.4Oldham 156 112 39.3Shelby 136 73 86.3Spencer 47 46 2.2Bullitt 292 213 37.137.1

1634 1115 +46.5%

Clark 349 227 +53.7Floyd 169 98 72.4Harrison 96 64 50.0

614 389 +57.8%

8-County Total 2,248 1504 +49.5%

Note: Nelson 114 122 -6.6% Hardin 254 210 +21%

Source: The Market Edge

Page 5: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Residential Building Permit 2012Market Comparison

%CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs. 2011

Louisville KY 42.5%Lexington KY 33.1%Evansville IN 24.3%Asheville NC 21.5%Charlotte NC 30.4%Fayetteville NC -------Hickory NC 12.3%Triad NC 3.2%Triangle NC 31.8%Upstate NC 32.1%Chattanooga TN 27.7%Knoxville TN 23.9%Tri-Cities TN -4.5%

Source: The Market Edge

Page 6: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 7: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 8: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 9: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 10: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 11: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 12: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 13: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 14: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Page 15: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Pe

rmit

s

4225

4790

5015

5137

4348

5294

3749

3297

Page 16: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Pe

rmit

s

4225

4790

5015

5137

4348

5294

3749

3297

Page 17: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

Source: local government permitting departments

J‘11

F M A M J J A S O N D J‘12

F M A M J J A S O N D

-27.7%

-18%

-11.7%

-22.5%

-2.4%

59.6%

34.2%

13.2%

-1.2%

97.5%

49.5% 48.8%

29.9%

38.6%

52.6%


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