NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS
2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000
Up 24% from 2011
This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22%
Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%
CORE LOGIC
IN 2012:
• Total Homes Sales Increased 6%
• Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11%
• REO Sales Declined 20%(3rd consecutive decline)
• Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9%
• Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)
GLAR MLS 2012• Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive
Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)
Houses Sold on MLS ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12
vs.’1115,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9%
Median Sales Price ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12
vs.’11138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0 134.1 140.0 +4.3%
• Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in ’12 vs. ‘11
PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSANational
MSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yrBirmingham, AL 222 -1.3% -0.2 -8.8%Charlotte, NC 201 -0.8% 0.4 -12.9%Cincinnati, OH 213 -1.0% -0.5 -8.3%Cleveland, OH 265 -2.2% - -13.3%Columbus, OH 186 -0.3% -0.3 -6.9%Dayton, OH 212 -1.0% 0.1 -9.9%Houston, TX 30 3.4% 0.9 5.5%Indianapolis, IN 149 0.3% 0.2 -3.9%Knoxville, TN 156 0.1% 0.6 -5.5%Memphis, TN 206 -1.0% -0.1 -12.1%
Louisville, KY 133 0.6% 0.4 -2.8%
Oklahoma City 64 2.0% 0.7 2.2%Portland, OR 66 2.0% 1.8 -21.0%Raleigh, NC 181 -0.2% - -6.6%Richmond, VA 230 -1.5% - -18.1%Seattle, WA 63 2.0% 1.4 -23.1%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
TOP 20 MSA LARGEST5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES
Las Vegas, NV -54.3%Vallejo, CA -45.6%Stockton, CA -44.9%Daytona Beach, FL -44.3%Reno, NV -44.0%Orlando, FL -42.8%Ocala, FL -42.7%Salvias, CA -41.7%Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -41.6%Riverside – San Bernadine, CA -41.3%Port St. Lucie, FL -40.9%Yuba City, CA -40.7%Naples – Marco Island, FL -40.1%Visalia, CA -39.8%Ft. Lauderdale, FL -39.0%Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL -38.8%Fresno, CA -38.5%Phoenix, AZ -38.4%Bradenton – Sarasota, FL -38.0%West Palm Beach, FL -37.8%Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL -37.8%
Louisville, KY -2.8%Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Residential Building Permits 20122012 2011 ’12 vs ’11
Jefferson 1003 671 +49.4Oldham 156 112 39.3Shelby 136 73 86.3Spencer 47 46 2.2Bullitt 292 213 37.137.1
1634 1115 +46.5%
Clark 349 227 +53.7Floyd 169 98 72.4Harrison 96 64 50.0
614 389 +57.8%8-County Total 2,248 1504 +49.5%
Note: Nelson 114 122 -6.6% Hardin 254 210 +21%
Source: The Market Edge
Residential Building Permit 2012Market Comparison
%CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs. 2011
Louisville KY 42.5%
Lexington KY 33.1%Evansville IN 24.3%
Asheville NC 21.5%Charlotte NC 30.4%Fayetteville NC -------Hickory NC 12.3%Triad NC 3.2%Raleigh NC 31.8%Upstate NC 32.1%Chattanooga TN 27.7%Knoxville TN 23.9%Tri-Cities TN -4.5%
Source: The Market Edge
Improving Markets Index
1223
3041
76
98 99 101 100
80 84 8099
103
125
201
242
259
Perm
its
4225
4790
5015
5137
4348
5294
3749
3297
Perm
its
4225
4790
5015
5137
4348
5294
3749
3297
Source: local government permitting departments
J11
F M A M J J A S O N D J12
F M A M J J A S O N D J13
F
-27.7%
-18%
-11.7%
-22.5%
-2.4%
59.6%
34.2%
13.2%
-1.2%
97.5%
49.5%48.8%
29.9%
38.6%
52.6%
NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTSWHAT HOME BUYERS
REALLY WANT
The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers
47% want three bedrooms32% want four bedrooms
57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home31% prefer two stories
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement
48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2nd floor70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1st floor
Buyers focus on “Quality & Appearance” where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc.
while…When looking at appliances, the focus is on “Quality & Brand”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• In the Kitchen:A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers
• In the Bathroom:An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• When Rating Windows:67% want energy star rated
windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass
• Decorative Features:88% Want ceiling fans60% Want built-in shelving and
ceiling crown moldingSource: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Laundry Room:57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it
36% Find it desirable
• Garage Storage:32% Rate it essential54% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features:90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable83% Patio80% Front porch
• Master Bath Location:45% Essential36% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities
• 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today
• 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Location of choice for new home buyers:Central City – 8 %Close-in Suburbs – 30%Outlying Suburb – 38%Rural Area – 27 %
and small towns
• Community features to seriously influence the buying decision:
Walking/Jogging Trails – 60%Park Area - 54%Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50%
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors
‒ “More Professional & Credible”‒ “Provide better quality work and
craftmanship”‒ “Provide better service levels”‒ “More Reliable”
Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor:1. “Reputation for quality construction”2. “Reputation for completing projects on budget”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Type of Home Preferred(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
31% 54%
36% 49%
32% 54%
48% 40%
35% 54%
39% 51%
41% 49%
53% 37%
28% 63%
57% 36%
36% 58%
Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
6% 27%
6% 31%
21% 39%
17% 45%
21% 51%
22% 55%
29% 49%
26% 54%
27% 56%
41% 49%
Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
2004 2007 2012
A full bath on the main level 75 74 81
Non-slip floor surfaces 62 53 63
An entrance without steps 42 38 50
Bathroom aids, such as grab bars
or seating in shower
40 35 46
Accessibility Features - History(Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012
and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers toChoose a Community
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
2004 2007 2012
Walking/jogging trails 51 49 60
Park area 52 43 54
Outdoor swimming pool 36 36 50
Lake 32 33 45
Exercise room 30 27 39
Convenience Store n/a 28 32
Drug Store n/a 28 32
Playgrounds 26 22 31
Public transportation 34 24 29
Clubhouse 21 21 26
Security guard at gate 30 17 25
Card-operated gate, no guard 16 14 19
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History
(Percent of Respondents )
2004 2007 2012
Tennis courts 10 10 17
Arts and Crafts n/a 7 14
Basketball courts 9 8 13
Business center 17 8 13
Billiard room 9 6 12
Daycare center 9 8 9
Baseball/ softball field 8 6 9
Soccer field 5 4 6
Racquetball courts 4 3 6
Equestrian facilities n/a 3 5
Other 11 13 6
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont.
(Percent of Respondents )
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY
61% Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants
78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work important in choosing where to live.
88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house.
Important Choice Decisions77% Sidewalks and places to take a walk75% High quality public schools
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Importance of Community Characteristics
Preferred Versus Actual Community Type
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
22%16%
14%18%
19%12%
26%28%
19%11%
5%8%
Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey