NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA 1 - CEI POPA ppt.pdfNATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA 4 2.1 5.7 5.1 5.2 8.5 4.2 7.9...

NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIANATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA1


Conditions & Policy Response through mid-2008

• Romania exhibited high annual growth rates between 2002-2008: catching-up, increased capital inflows due to improved risk perception (EU accession, NATO membership), consumption smoothing, substantial credit flows

• After 2005-6, increasing signs of overheating: widening external deficits, persistent core inflation

• NBR response: –– implementation of IT focused on ensuring compliance with sustainimplementation of IT focused on ensuring compliance with sustainable progress of able progress of

disinflation along mediumdisinflation along medium--term path described by announced annual inflation targets, whileterm path described by announced annual inflation targets, whileremaining mindful of not exacerbating existing macroeconomic vulremaining mindful of not exacerbating existing macroeconomic vulnerabilities or creating nerabilities or creating financial stability problems whose effects might compromise durafinancial stability problems whose effects might compromise durability of secured disinflation bility of secured disinflation gains: gains: ‘‘macroeconomic riskmacroeconomic risk--management perspectivemanagement perspective’’, with primacy of price stability , with primacy of price stability considerationsconsiderations

–– continuous focus on slowing down speed of growth of foreigncontinuous focus on slowing down speed of growth of foreign--exchange credit (for macro as exchange credit (for macro as well as financial stability reasons, due to increasing assetwell as financial stability reasons, due to increasing asset--liability mismatches), using all liability mismatches), using all available policy tools (reserve requirements, LTV, loanavailable policy tools (reserve requirements, LTV, loan--toto--income limits for households, income limits for households, exposure limits to unhedged borrowers, higher coefficients in stexposure limits to unhedged borrowers, higher coefficients in stress tests for exposures to ress tests for exposures to nonnon--euro credit)euro credit)

–– permanent message on need for maintaining consistency of the macpermanent message on need for maintaining consistency of the macroeconomic policy mix roeconomic policy mix (particularly avoiding procyclicality of fiscal and wage policie(particularly avoiding procyclicality of fiscal and wage policies) s)


Policy Response since end-2008• Monetary policy geared towards twin objectives of price stability & financial stability, aim

to maintain prudent broad monetary conditions at all times with regard to evolving economic environment

– policy rate decreased in 2009 from 10.25% to 8% on background of disinflation persistence: inflation reacting with a lag to substantial economic contraction

– gradual decrease in minimum reserve requirements: from 20% to 15% for domestic currency liabilities, from 40% to 30% for foreign-exchange denominated liabilities (both w. residual maturities of up to two years)

– liquidity management important policy tool in its own right, on background of NBR move to net creditor position: enhances transmission of policy signals, firm management ensures adequate functioning of financial markets w/o negative spillovers into other areas

• With external deficit adjusting sharply (from 12.3% of GDP in 2008 to under 5% of GDP in 2009), main perceived vulnerability of economy leading to exchange rate volatility alleviating from fundamentals perspective

• Despite significant economic contraction (around -8% expected in 2009), lack of degrees of freedom in easing fiscal, wage policies: need for firm consolidation in 2010 – 2011

• Enhanced supervision & permanent dialogue w. banks on regulatory issues; maintaining adequate solvency levels (10% minimum)

• Multilateral financing agreement w. EU, IMF, World Bank, other IFIs (besides reserve buildup,): restoring confidence, functioning as “crisis management program”, enhancing stability of foreign bank exposure to Romania & maintaining capital adequacy


2.1

5.75.1 5.2

8.5

4.2

7.9

6.27.1

-7.7

0.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f

Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis

annual percentage change

Real GDP

2009 H1: -7.6%

f) forecast


Gross Fixed Capital Formationand Final Private Consumption

(GDP component)

8.4

2.02.0

-11.0

19.3

29.0

19.9

15.3

11.08.88.99.9

5.5

8.5

5.2

8.4

13.0

9.611.6 9.8

0.2

-12.7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f

Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis

gross fixed capital formation

final private consumption


gross fixed capital formation: -16.7% in 2009 H1final private consumption: -11.9% in 2009 H1

f) forecast


Economic Growth in Peer Countries

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

202

00

5

20

06

20

07

20

08

200

9 Q

1

200

9 Q

2

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

200

9 Q

1

200

9 Q

2

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

200

9 Q

1

200

9 Q

2

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

200

9 Q

1

200

9 Q

2

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

net exportsgross capital formation*

final consumptionGDP (rhs)


Source: Eurostat

Czech Rep. Poland RomaniaHungary

contribution to annual change, pp

* including statistical discrepancy


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Bulgaria CzechRepublic*

Hungary* Poland Romania EA16

Sept.2009/Sept.2008

Sept.2009/Dec.2008

Source: Eurostat

percentage change; seasonally adjusted data

Manufacturing Output: Volume Index

* Aug.2009/Sept.2008; Aug.2009/Dec.2008


-3.1

9.310.3

2.7

-8.5

2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan.-Sept. 2009

Source: National Institute of Statistics

Industrial Output

annual percentage change, gross data

Sept.09/Sept.08: -3.1%; Sept.09/Aug. 09: 1.3% (sa)

Note: Data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.

Ja


%, date ajustate sezonier

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

I/08 II III IV I/09 II III

gross fixed capital formationequipment (incl. transport means)

new buildingscapital repairs in construction

real annual percentage change


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100


equipment loans

real estate loans

real annual percentage change, stock data

Source: National Bank of Romania

Investment Demand and LoansInvestment Demand and Loans


Consumer Demand: Main Categories and Drivers

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


purchases ofgoods andservicestrade turnover:durables

trade turnover:non-durables

real annual percentage change

Source: NIS, NBR calculations

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

I/08 II III IV I/09 II III-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10consumer credit – newbusinessdisposable income*

consumer confidenceindicator** (rhs)

* last value: Jul-Aug'09; ** last value: Jul-Oct '09

Source: NIS, EC-DG ECFIN, MPF, NBR

% balance of answers, %

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan

.08

Ma

y.08

Sep

.08

Jan

.09

Ma

y.09

Sep

.09

timedeposits(RON)*

householdtimedeposits(euro)**

flow, annual percentage change

Source: NBR, Eurostat

* real change (CPI) ** real change (IAPC)


Headline Inflation and CORE Inflation

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10D

ec.

05

Fe

b.0

6

Ap

r.0

6

Jun.

06

Au

g.0

6

Oc

t.06

De

c.0

6

Fe

b.0

7

Ap

r.0

7

Jun.

07

Au

g.0

7

Oc

t.07

De

c.0

7

Fe

b.0

8

Ap

r.0

8

Jun.

08

Au

g.0

8

Oc

t.08

De

c.0

8

Fe

b.0

9

Ap

r.0

9

Jun.

09

Au

g.0

9

Oc

t.09


CPI (total)

CORE1 (CPI – administered prices)

CORE2 (CORE1 – volatile prices*)

adjusted CORE2**

Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations

*) products with volatile prices: vegetables, fruit, eggs, fuels

**) excluding tobacco and alcoholic beverages


Inflation Forecast

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

I2009

II III IV I2010

II III IV I2011

II III

uncertainty interval

variation band*

4-quarter inflation rate

target


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

I2009

II III IV I2010

II III IV I2011

II III

variation band*

target

4-quarter inflation rate


Inflation targets (Dec./Dec.) 2009: 3.5% 2010: 3.5% 2011: 3.0%

*) ±1 percentage point around the central targetSource: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations


Inflation Rate and Interest Rates

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32Ja

n.0

4M

ay.0

4S

ep

.04

Jan

.05

May

.05

Se

p.0

5Ja

n.0

6M

ay.0

6S

ep

.06

Jan

.07

May

.07

Se

p.0

7Ja

n.0

8M

ay.0

8S

ep

.08

Jan

.09

May

.09

Se

p.0

9

Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics

percent

inflation rate (percentage change against the same year-earlier period)

interest rate on monetary policy operations(stock; % p.a.)

NBR policy rate (% p.a.)

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

Jan

.04

Ma

y.0

4S

ep.0

4J

an.0

5M

ay.

05

Sep

.05

Jan

.06

Ma

y.0

6S

ep.0

6J

an.0

7M

ay.

07

Sep

.07

Jan

.08

Ma

y.0

8S

ep.0

8J

an.0

9M

ay.

09

Sep

.09

percent

inflation rate (percentage change against the same year-earlier period)

average interest rate on lei-denominated loans to non-financial corporations and households (% p.a.)

average interest rate on lei-denominated time deposits fromnon-financial corporations and households (% p.a.)

NBR policy rate: 8.0% starting with September 30, 2009


Widening Spread between Interbank Rates and Policy Rate

0

5

10

15

20

25J

an.0

7

Apr

.07

Jul.0

7

Oct

.07

Jan

.08

Apr

.08

Jul.0

8

Oct

.08

Jan

.09

Apr

.09

Jul.0

9

Oct

.09


policy rate

average interbank rate (excl. NBR)

monthly average, % p.a.


Domestic Demand and Current Account Deficit

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

I/08 II III IV I/09 II

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

CAD (rhs)

domestic demand

GDP

real annual percentage change % in GDP, rolling basis

Source: National Institut of Statistics, National Bank of Romania


-3.7

-5.5

-3.3

-5.8

-8.4 -8.6

-10.4

-13.5

-12.3

-4.6 -4.8

2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004* 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009f* 2010f*

Current Account Balancepercent of GDP

*) including reinvested earnings

Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis f) forecast

Jan.-Aug. 2009: EUR 2.4 bn., down 78.6% yoy


Current Account Deficit Financing via FDI

-16.7(13.5% GDP)

-16.9 (12.3% GDP)

7.0(5.7% GDP)

9.3 (6.8% GDP)

0.7(0.6% GDP)

0.6(0.4% GDP)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2007 2008

capital transfersforeign direct investmentcurrent account balance

EUR bn.

Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers) amounted to 58.4% in 2008 vs 46.5% in 2007. In 2008, net FDI increased 31.6% yoy.

-11.4

-2.4

6.8

3.1

0.3

0.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jan.-Aug. 2008 Jan.-Aug. 2009

capital transfers

foreign direct investment

current account balance

Current account financing via FDI (including capital transfers) amounted to 134.1% in Jan.-Aug. 2009 vs 62.6% in Jan.-Aug. 2008. In Jan.-Aug. 2009, net FDI decreased 55.2% yoy.

EUR bn.


*) Jan.- Jul.

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6J

an.0

6

Ma

y.0

6

Sep

.06

Jan

.07

Ma

y.0

7

Sep

.07

Jan

.08

Ma

y.0

8

Sep

.08

Jan

.09

Ma

y.0

9

Sep

.09

trade balance exports fob

imports fob

EUR bn.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

.06

Ma

y.0

6

Sep

.06

Jan

.07

Ma

y.0

7

Sep

.07

Jan

.08

Ma

y.0

8

Sep

.08

Jan

.09

Ma

y.0

9

Sep

.09

exports fobimports fobtrade balance

index, as against the same period of previous year

Trade Balance(monthly data)


In Jan.-Sept. 2009, yoy decrease of exports and imports was 18.3% and 36.0% respectively.


Nominal Exchange Rate

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

Jan

.02

Ma

y.0

2

Se

p.0

2

Jan

.03

Ma

y.0

3

Se

p.0

3

Jan

.04

Ma

y.0

4

Se

p.0

4

Jan

.05

Ma

y.0

5

Se

p.0

5

Jan

.06

Ma

y.0

6

Se

p.0

6

Jan

.07

Ma

y.0

7

Se

p.0

7

Jan

.08

Ma

y.0

8

Se

p.0

8

Jan

.09

Ma

y.0

9

Se

p.0

9


RON/EUR (daily data)

NBR's decision to pursue a more flexible exchange rate


Real Exchange Rate of the RON against the EUR

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260Ja

n.0

1

Ma

y.0

1

Se

p.0

1

Jan.

02

Ma

y.0

2

Se

p.0

2

Jan.

03

Ma

y.0

3

Se

p.0

3

Jan.

04

Ma

y.0

4

Se

p.0

4

Jan.

05

Ma

y.0

5

Se

p.0

5

Jan.

06

Ma

y.0

6

Se

p.0

6

Jan.

07

Ma

y.0

7

Se

p.0

7

Jan.

08

Ma

y.0

8

Se

p.0

8

Jan.

09

Ma

y.0

9

Se

p.0

9

index, 2000 = 100, monthly averages

based on CPI differential between Romania and Euro area

based on PPI differential between Romania and Euro area

based on ULC in industry

Source: National Bank of Romania calculations, National Institute of Statistics, IMF - International Financial Statistics

Note: For PPI and ULC, data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.


100

105

110

115

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania calculations

previous year =100

labour productivity gross real wage (based on PPI)

Real Wage and Labour Productivity in Industry

*) Jan.-Aug.

Note: Data recalculated according to NACE Rev.2 and to the change in the base year (2005 instead of 2000) and weighting system.


Gross International Reserves

02468

1012141618202224262830323436

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


banks' foreign exchangereservesNBR foreign exchangereservesgold

EUR billion

Gross Official Reserves

024681012141618202224262830323436

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

NBR foreign exchange reserves

gold

EUR billion

200

9O

ct.

2009

Sep

.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Oct.

fx off. reserves - months of imports*

off. reserves- months of imports*

private debt - months of exports*

months

Note: for 2009, calculations based on prospective imports

Sept

embe

r

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009***0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (resid. maturity)

fx off. reserves/ST ext. debt (orig. maturity)

fx off. reserves (t)/MLT debt service (t+1)**

fx off. reserves/CAD (rhs)

** For 2008, calculations based on estimated debt service for 2009*** August for reserves and ST external debt stock; 2009 estimate for CAD; Sep.09 - Aug.10 estimate for MLT debt service

percent

Reserves and Debt Indicators

Source: National Bank of Romania; National Institute of Statistics; National Commission of Prognosis * goods and services

percent



MLT External Debt

0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 3.2 5.5

7.2

5.6 6.0 7.912.4

17.0

25.3

35.2

37.3

9.2 9.710.0

11.310.7

10.2

10.7

12.8

6.60.2 0

5

10

1520

2530

35

40

4550

55

60

65

70

7580

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

200

9*

public and publicly guaranteed debt

private debt

deposits of non-residents

IMF loans

EUR billionTotal External Debt

15.0 15.9 18.324.6

28.6

38.7

51.4

62.9

1.2 2.03.2

6.3

12.5

19.8

20.6

15.3

05

10

1520

25

30

35

40

4550

5560

65

70

75

80

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

20

09*

ST debt(majority private debt)

MLT debt

EUR billion

*) September


Public Debt

15.7 16.1

6.99.9

5.8

15.4

11.1 9.8 8.7 7.8

16.213.5

6.1

4.7

2.6 4.0

8.8

5.3

21.022.6

26.025.0

21.5

15.8

12.4 12.713.6

18.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f

Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics

domestic public debt/GDP

foreign public debt/GDP

percent of GDP(according to ESA 95 methodology)

f) EDP Notification, October 2009

Note: Government securities in MFIs portfolio as share of GDP in Dec.07=1.7%, Dec.08=2.2% and Aug.09=7%


-4.4

-3.5

-2.0-1.5

-1.2 -1.2

-2.2-2.6

-5.5

-7.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f

Source: Ministry of Public Finance, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis

General Government Deficit

percent of GDP(according to ESA 95 methodology)

f) EDP Notification, October 2009


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan

.08

Fe

b.0

8

Ma

r.0

8

Ap

r.08

Ma

y.08

Jun

.08

Jul.0

8

Au

g.0

8

Sep

.08

Oct

.08

No

v.08

De

c.0

8

Jan

.09

Fe

b.0

9

Ma

r.0

9

Ap

r.09

Ma

y.09

Jun

.09

Jul.0

9

Au

g.0

9

Sep

.09

Oct

.09

No

v.09

Romania (BB+) Czech Rep. (A)

Bulgaria (BBB-) Hungary (BBB)

Latvia (BB+) Poland (A-)

Lithuania (BBB)

Source: Bloomberg

Eurobond Spreads

basis points

Note: The spread is calculated as against the yields on German Bunds maturing in 2012 Bond maturity: 2011 for Hungary; 2012 for Poland, Romania and Lithuania; 2013 for Bulgaria; ' ' 2014 for Czech Republic and Latvia () Composite rating (Moody's, S&P, Fitch)


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400Ja

n.0

8

Fe

b.0

8

Ma

r.08

Ap

r.0

8

May

.08

Jun

.08

Jul.0

8

Aug

.08

Se

p.0

8

Oct

.08

Nov

.08

De

c.08

Jan

.09

Fe

b.0

9

Ma

r.09

Ap

r.0

9

May

.09

Jun

.09

Jul.0

9

Aug

.09

Se

p.0

9

Oct

.09

Nov

.09

Latvia Czech Rep. Lithuania Poland

Hungary Bulgaria Romania

Spreads of Five-year CDS for Emerging Economiesin Central and Eastern Europe

Source: Bloomberg

basis points


Financial Intermediation*

9.414.1

16.4 16.6

11.3

12.7

19.522.7

4.87.4

11.4

19.711.8

13.3

15.4

18.6

19.6

6.3

10.317.3

41.0

16.6

20.7

26.8

35.9

39.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

percent

loans to non-financial corporations a.o.

loans to households

foreign-exchange-denominated loans

lei-denominated loans

*) loans to the private sector / GDP f) forecast

f

- Stocks -

Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis


Debtors

15.214.6

12.7

21.1

25.326.8

19.9

22.724.623.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1

Q2

loans to households

loans to non-financial corporations a.o.

percent

Currency

23.4 24.622.7

19.9

25.3

21.1

12.714.6 15.2

26.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1

Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1

Q2



percent

*) percent in quarterly GDP

Financial Intermediation*- Flows -

Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania


Loans to the Private Sector


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140D

ec.

05

Ma

r.0

6Ju

n.0

6S

ep

.06

De

c.0

6M

ar.

07

Jun

.07

Se

p.0

7D

ec.

07

Ma

r.0

8Ju

n.0

8S

ep

.08

De

c.0

8M

ar.

09

Jun

.09

Se

p.0

9


total


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

De

c.0

5M

ar.

06

Jun

.06

Se

p.0

6D

ec.

06

Ma

r.0

7Ju

n.0

7S

ep.

07

De

c.0

7M

ar.

08

Jun

.08

Se

p.0

8D

ec.

08

Ma

r.0

9Ju

n.0

9S

ep.

09

households

total

non-financial corporations & financialcorporations other than MFIs

real annual percentage change*

*) based on CPI

real annual percentage change*


Private Sector Deposits


(in real terms)

lei-denominated deposits

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Dec

.05

Ma

r.0

6Ju

n.0

6S

ep.0

6D

ec.0

6M

ar.

07

Jun

.07

Sep

.07

Dec

.07

Ma

r.0

8Ju

n.0

8S

ep.0

8D

ec.0

8M

ar.

09

Jun

.09

Sep

.09

lei billion

corporations*

households

(de

flate

d b

y C

PI,

Sep

. 20

09=

10

0)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

De

c.0

5M

ar.0

6Ju

n.0

6S

ep

.06

De

c.0

6M

ar.0

7Ju

n.0

7S

ep

.07

De

c.0

7M

ar.0

8Ju

n.0

8S

ep

.08

De

c.0

8M

ar.0

9Ju

n.0

9S

ep

.09

lei billion

corporations*

households

foreign-exchange-denominated deposits

*) non-financial corporations and financial corporations other than MFIs


1.23

1.03

0.66

0.32

0.220.200.260.28

3.220.64

-2.90

12.66

15.62

10.24 9.43

17.04

0.280.05

-0.251.561.011.281.601.98

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

De

c.0

4

De

c.0

5

De

c.0

6

De

c.0

7

De

c.0

8

Ma

r.0

9

Jun

.09

Se

p.0

9


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

overdue and doubtful loans /total loans portfolio (net value)

ROE (net income / total equity); rhs

ROA (net income / total assets); rhs

percent percent

Analysis Ratios for the Banking System (1)


13.7

20.6 21.1

18.1

13.8 13.8 13.2 13.5

2.39

1.63

2.13

2.312.28

2.592.47

2.31

10

15

20

25

30D

ec.0

4

Dec

.05

Dec

.06

Dec

.07

Dec

.08

Ma

r.0

9

Jun

.09

Sep

.09


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

solvency ratio liquidity ratio (rhs)

percent

Analysis Ratios for the Banking System (2)percent

At present, no credit institution has a solvency ratio below the 10 percent threshold.


percent

Dec.07 Mar.08 Jun.08 Sep.08 Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09

1 13.78 12.99 12.78 11.85 13.76 13.16 13.51 13.73

2 7.32 7.20 7.30 7.10 8.13 6.81 6.92 7.04

3 59.09 62.06 63.47 65.04 62.50 60.00 59.11 60.34

4 29.98 27.54 26.09 24.79 26.01 24.98 23.91 21.91

5 0.22 0.22 0.30 0.24 0.32 0.67 1.03 1.27

6 0.77 0.83 0.95 1.07 1.37 2.16 2.68 3.13

7 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.22 0.29 0.52 0.75 0.928

9 1.01 1.51 1.44 1.77 1.56 -0.25 0.05 0.28

10 9.43 16.45 15.82 19.41 17.04 -2.90 0.64 3.22

11 38.70 34.98 33.23 31.74 34.43 33.05 33.62 34.08

12 2.13 2.29 2.30 2.45 2.47 2.31 2.39 1.63

13 108.7 116.1 119.6 124.7 122.0 124.7 119.2 117.6Note:(1) Indicators calculated based on accounting prudential reports.

BANKING INDICATORS (Banks, Foreign Bank Branches and CREDITCOOP)

87.785.4 90.5

x = i t is not the case

Loans to clients / Deposits from clients

ROA (Net profit /Total assets, average)


(2) Indicators calculated based on loan classification reports (pursuant to Regulation 5/2002, as subsequently amended and supplemented). Loan exposures are classified by credit institutions in line with debt servicing, the debtor’s financial standing and

91.0 89.7

ROE (Net profit / Own capital, average)

Liquidity

Profitability

Cash ratio

Liquidity ratio (effective liquidity / required liquidity)

88.5Provisioning for risk-weighted exposure of banks to non-bank loans and interbank placements and related interest classified under "substandard", "doubtful" and "loss" (2)

Loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)

Interbank placements and loans (gross value) / Total assets (gross value) (1)

86.2 89.6

Indicators

Leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital /Total assets, average)

Asset quality

Capital adequacy

Solvency ratio (>8%)

Past-due and doubtful loans / Total loan portfolio (net value) (1)

Past-due and doubtful claims / Total assets (net value) (1)

Past-due and doubtful loans/Total loan portfolio (gross value)

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