National Council for Voluntary Organisations Third Sector Foresight Look out: the future of the...

National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Third Sector Foresight

Look out: the future of the relationship between the third sector and local governmentSarah Coombes



Make better decisions – www.3s4.org.uk

Our mission

NCVO Third Sector Foresight helps organisations to understand how the world is changing around them and use this knowledge to make better strategic decisions




Objectives and outcomes of today• To undertake an analysis of drivers in

the external environment which may impact on the future of the relationship between the VCS and local government

• To explore the implications of these drivers to support local infrastructure organisations to….




Objectives and outcomes….

• Stay relevant• Improve sustainability• Become more risk aware• Increase innovation




The external environment. What?Drivers…

…are trends or forces outside of your organisation which could have a positive or negative impact on your organisation’s future




What?

These could be political, social, economic, technical, legal and beyond….

– Funding - commissioning and procurement– Policy - localism agenda– Social attitudes - toward immigrants– Demography – an ageing population– Technology – web based networks




The external environment. Why?

Changes in the external environment have an influence on the voluntary and community sector




Why?

A good analysis of the potential impact of change helps organisations to make clear strategic choices and plan ahead. This supports organisations to;




Why?

• Stay relevant• Improve sustainability• Become more risk aware• Increase innovation




The external environment. How?

Strategic Analysis: from scanning to planning…




Strategic analysis, of the external environment, is about…

…understanding how the world is changing around your organisation and using this knowledge to make better strategic decisions




A strategic planning cycleGetting the direction right

Evaluation

Implementation

Strategic analysis

Options and choices

Planning




Key steps of strategic analysis – scanning to planning…..

ONE Mapping the drivers - identifying and recording the major trends or forces that could positively or negatively shape or influence the future of the organisation

TWO Sorting the drivers into the vital, the important and the interesting

THREE Carrying out further research into the drivers that matter to the organisation

FOUR Considering the implications of these drivers for the organisation and as a result, generating opportunities and options

FIVE Taking strategic action – making decisions as to how the organisation will respond




Key steps of strategic analysis

Today will focus on…

ONE Mapping the drivers

TWO Sorting the drivers

FOUR Considering the implications of these drivers and generating opportunities and options




How?The three key questions…

• What? - the key drivers that may affect your organisation and its beneficiaries in the future

• So What? – what might this mean?• Now what? – what should you do about

it?




Exercise 1: Getting into a future focussed frame of mind!

Headlines

• 2013

• 2019

• 2024




Anticipating future events for the next five years and beyond…

• What is your organisations’ purpose?

• Who are the important ‘stakeholders’ for your organisation?




STEP ONE – Mapping the drivers

The first step in strategic analysis is to open up thinking about the external environment and the numerous drivers.

PEST is a useful tool to help organisations do this…

• Political• Economic• Social• Technological factors in the external environment

PESTEL or STEEPLE could also be used

• Environmental/Ethical• Legal




PEST….for examplePolitical

•Continued shift from grants to contracts•Individual budgets•Fast changing localism agenda•Next election change of government?

Economic•Economic downturn squeezing funding•Increasing competition for less funding•Efficiency and value for money•Changes to how infrastructure is funded

Social

•Ageing population•New migrant populations•Inequality between local areas

Technological

•Growth of online communities•Empowered consumers/information society




STEP TWO – Sifting and sorting the drivers into the vital, the important and the interesting

When deciding which drivers really matter to your organisation it helps to think about their level of…

• IMPACT - from certain and uncertain

• PREDICTABILITY - from high to low




STEP TWO – Sifting and sorting

You may want to prioritise those with a potentially high impact that are predictable. It is often these drivers that need to be part of strategic plan.

Unpredictable drivers, where you are not clear about the drivers and/or their likely implications, are often those with the greatest potential impact because you are less likely to be able to prepare.




Drivers wall• Do these drivers reflect the potential challenges and

opportunities faced by local infrastructure organisations?

• Are there any drivers that are missing?

• Which of these drivers do you see as most important to your organisation?

• Which drivers do you feel will have the biggest impact on your organisations?

• Which drivers do you think are most likely to happen?




Exercise 2 - PESTEL

In your groups, start to jot down the main drivers in your external environment you see as influencing the future of the relationship between the VCS and local government.

• Green - high impact and predictable• Pink – low impact and unpredictable




Exercise 3 – Sift and Sort

For the future of the relationship between the VCS and local government this will help us identify…..

• The drivers you see as most important • The drivers you feel will have the biggest

impact • The drivers you think are most likely to

happen




STEP TWO – Sifting and sorting – using the information

PlanDevelop

scenarios

Develop tactics and

policies Review

HIGH IMPACT

LOWER IMPACT

UN

PR

ED

ICTA

BL

E

PR

ED

ICTA

BLE




STEP FOUR

Considering the implications of these drivers for the organisation and as a result, generating opportunities and options




STEP FOUR….

What?

So what?Now what?




STEP FOUR - Considering the implications

• What? = scanning the external environment to identify and prioritise the drivers

• So what? = considering the implications for the organisation and key stakeholders spotting opportunities and threats and risks

• Now what? = considering the next steps the organisation might want to take:

• honing the opportunities down• creating some strategic options• making decisions about future plans




The Impact Assessment Grid

Helps you to identify……

So what might be the impact on the organisation?

What new challenges, threats and risks might emerge?

What opportunities might there be for improving effectiveness and impact?




Exercise 4 – Impact Assessment

What are the opportunities and challenges for….

• Users• Relationships• Workforce• Skills




STEP FIVE - Taking strategic action – making decisions about how your organisation will respond

This step in the process is about linking ‘so what?’ and ‘now what?’ Making sure your organisation has…

• considered a healthy range of opportunities/threats• developed a range of possible responses• considered responses and decided which are the most

appropriate

Perhaps you could use the Improve, Innovate, Improvise idea….




STEP FIVE - Taking strategic action

Narrowing down responses…

What are the strengths and weakness of your proposed responses to the drivers and implications you have identified?

On balance, which option/s work best for your organisation?




Narrowing down responses

• Key opportunity template…




Matrix ranking of options

Extending the evaluation of options thinking…




Taking strategic action

Perhaps your organisation could think about….

• What is realistic and achievable in the next five years?• Are there quick wins that could be made in the next year?• Are there ideas to capture but to be taken forward in a

more gradual way or agreed to revisit at some later point?




STEP FIVE - Taking strategic action

With your strategic analysis of the external environment…

Populate your strategic plan and implement your strategy!




Some tips on Strategic Analysis• Remember that the future is uncertain – you can only

anticipate what might happen you can’t predict the future

• Strategic analysis cannot forecast precisely what is going to happen but it can help you to keep an eye on emerging developments and where necessary, adapt to changes in your external environment

• Don’t discount the power of intuition, luck and gut instinct but channel these into a clear process of checking and analysing what you believe to be relevant or true




Tips…• Strategic analysis is a continuous process

not a one off event or activity

• It’s not always linear

• Be careful not to go off on a tangent, which is easy to do when you are finding lots of interesting and seemingly useful information. Remember your Mission – what you are there to do




Third Sector Foresight Website

• Use information on drivers• Tailor the drivers yourself to make

them relevant and specific• Share views and news with the

sector• Sign up to the bulletin










Contact details and thank you!

Sarah CoombesThird Sector Foresight [email protected] 7520 2437www.3s4.org.uk




‘For tomorrow belongs to the

people who prepare for it today’

African proverb

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