National Early Warning Systems: A Regional Perspective
Eugene PoolmanChief Forecaster: DRR
South African Weather Service
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Consider Tropical Cyclones Eline (2000) and Favio (2007)
(Taken from SREX Chapter 9)
• TC Eline 2000 Mozambique:– 700 deaths, 4.5 million affected – Mozambique was not prepared from a DRR
perspective– Massive international rescue and support
• TC Favio 2007 Mozambique:– 29 deaths, 285000 affected– Warnings issued days in advance– Disaster management infrastructure mobilized– Communities prepared in prior training were
successfully evacuated within 2 days
• How did EWS contribute to this success story?
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Effective National Early Warning SystemsThree essential requirements• State-of-the-art hazard monitoring and dissemination
capabilities and procedures• Excellent coordination between all role players:
Met Services, DMCs, Media, Local Communities• Communities at risk must receive, understand and
appropriately react to warnings
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Risk Knowledge
Monitoring & Warning Disseminate Response
Four Elements of EWS
Challenging the technological gap of Developing Countries
• Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past decades
• Increasing gap in developing countries of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings
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Challenging the technological gap of Developing Countries
• Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past decades
• Increasing gap in developing countries of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings
• There is a need to support developing countries to close this gap
• WMO’s Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)
SWFDP Framework for “Cascading of Information”
since 2006
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• Global Centres– Provide specialized forecast products
• Regional centre (RSMC Pretoria)– Provide these products to NMSs through
a dedicated web page– Provide guidance forecasts of potential
severe weather for next 5 days, every day• 16 National Meteorological Services
– Assess the products and guidance– Issue national warnings with up to 5 days
lead time• Underpinned by regular training• No complex technology required
Enhanced National Early Warning Systems
• NMS evaluate model products supported by RSMC guidance products
• Issue warnings if needed against their own in-country criteria for severe weather
• Collaborate with Disaster Management in JOCs prior and during events
• Media Liaison• Community outreach
programmes
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Example of SWFDP support to National EWS Tropical Cyclone Favio Feb 2007
• TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe
• The model forecasts supported guidance to NMCs on potential landfall and movement 5 days in advance
• Allowed disaster management in Mozambique and Zimbabwe to issue alerts 2-3 days in advance to provinces
• Enhanced EWS through SWFDP essential part of a wider DRR effort that prepared Mozambique (and Zimbabwe) for Flavio
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Conclusion• Development of EWS is important element of adaptation
against adverse impacts of the changing climate and socioeconomic background
• Regional collaboration is an essential element to support developing countries with modern technology
• The greatest challenge is reaching vulnerable communities with effective warnings
• SWFDP is a practical example of successful action at regional level in Southern Africa having operational impact at national and local level
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