National Economic Trends
RealGDPGrowth
ConsumerPriceIndex
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-1
1
2
3
4
6
Q12014 Q12016Q12015 Q12017
RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)
Comp
ound
edAnn
ualR
ateo
fCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchange
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItems
Perce
ntCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Economy at a Glance 1
National Economic Trends
IndustrialProduction
InterestRates
Percentchange
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
IndustrialProductionIndex
Perce
ntCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1940 1960 1980 2000
0.0
2.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
3-MonthTreasuryBill:SecondaryMarketRate10-YearTreasuryConstantMaturityRate
Perce
nt
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Economy at a Glance 2
National Economic Trends
ChangeinNonfarmPayrolls
UnemploymentRate
Thousands
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrolls
Chan
ge,T
housan
dsof
Perso
ns
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentoflaborforce
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
4.0
5.0
6.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
CivilianUnemploymentRate
Perce
nt
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Economy at a Glance 3
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
RealGrossDomesticProduct
IndustrialProductionandInstituteforSupplyManagement(ISM)Indexes
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5
0
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)
Perce
ntCha
ngefrom
YearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromayearago
Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1940 1960 1980 2000
0
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
60.0
45.0
48.0
51.0
54.0
57.0
63.0
66.0
IndustrialProductionIndex(left)ISMManufacturing:PMICompositeIndex©
Perce
ntCha
ngefrom
YearAgo
Index2012=100
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 4
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
AggregatePrivateNonfarmHours
RealChangeinPrivateInventories
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
IndexofAggregateWeeklyHours:ProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:TotalPrivateIndustries
Perce
ntCha
ngefrom
YearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentofGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
ChangeinPrivateInventories
(Perce
ntof
GDP
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 5
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
RealFinalSalesandGDP
RealGDPRevisions
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)RealFinalSalesofDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)
Comp
ound
edAnn
ualR
ateo
fCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
Q12017Q32016 Q42016 Q22017 Q32017
20101995 2000 2005 2015
0.0
2.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
Advance Second Third AnnualRevision
Comp
ound
edAnn
ualR
ateo
fCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 6
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
IndustrialProductionandISMIndex
NominalGrossDomesticProduct
Percentchange
Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
60.0
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
62.5
IndustrialProductionIndex(left)ISMManufacturing:PMICompositeIndex©
Perce
ntCha
nge Index2012=100
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
1
2
3
4
6
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
GrossDomesticProduct
Comp
ound
edAnn
ualR
ateo
fCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 7
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
AggregatePrivateNonfarmHours
AverageWeeklyPrivateNonfarmHours
Percentchange
Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
IndexofAggregateWeeklyHours:ProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:TotalPrivateIndustries
Perce
ntCha
nge
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Hours
Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
33.45
33.50
33.55
33.60
33.65
33.70
33.75
33.80
33.85
AverageWeeklyHoursofProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:Totalprivate
Hours
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 8
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
RealChangeinPrivateInventories
Inventory-SalesRatio
Billionsof2009dollars
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
40
80
120
20
60
100
140
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
ChangeinRealPrivateInventories(DISCONTINUED)Billion
sofC
hained20
09D
ollars
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Manufacturingandtrade
Jan2016Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1.35
1.40
1.31
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.36
1.37
1.38
1.39
1.41
1.42
1.43
TotalBusiness:InventoriestoSalesRatio
Ratio
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 9
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
CoutributiouofCompoueutstoRealGDPGrowth
CoutributiouofCompoueutstoRealGDPGrowth2015 2016 20173rd 4th 1st 2ud 3rd 4th 1st 2ud
FiualSales 1.86 1.17 1.23 2.94 2.63 0.69 2.73 2.95Cousumptiou 1.23 2.57 1.92 1.99 1.32 2.24 1.49 2.58
FixedIuvestmeut -0.05 0.22 0.25 0.28 1.27 0.53 0.40 1.27Nonresidential -0.52 0.41 0.42 0.02 0.86 0.82 0.58 0.84Residential 0.47 -0.18 -0.18 0.26 0.41 -0.30 -0.18 0.42Goverumeut 0.32 -0.16 0.09 0.03 -0.11 -0.03 0.12 0.50
Federal -0.10 -0.06 0.11 -0.03 -0.16 0.13 0.09 0.23StateandLocal 0.42 -0.11 -0.02 0.06 0.05 -0.16 0.03 0.28NetExports -0.28 0.28 0.36 -1.61 0.22 0.21 0.36 -1.13
Exports -0.33 0.32 0.74 -0.47 0.85 0.42 0.25 0.82Imports 0.04 -0.04 -0.37 -1.14 -0.63 -0.22 0.11 -1.96
ChaugesiuIuveutory -0.64 -0.67 0.16 1.06 -1.46 0.12 0.79 -0.67Residual 0.053 0.106 -0.06 -0.048 0.131 -0.019 -0.099 -0.101
RealGDPGrowth 1.63 0.49 0.58 2.24 2.78 1.76 1.24 3.06
Percentagepointscompoundedannualrates
Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42016 Q12017 Q22017 Q32017 Q42017
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
Iuveutories Cousumptiou Iuvestmeut Goverumeut Exports Imports
Perc
enta
gePo
intsa
tAnn
ualR
ate
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Contributions of Components to GDP Growth 10
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
InterestRates
TreasuryYieldCurve
Percent
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1940 1960 1980 2000
0
5
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
10-YearTreasuryConstantMaturityRate3-MonthTreasuryBill:SecondaryMarketRate
Percen
t
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y
Weeklydata January2018 January2017
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 12
National Economic Trends - Output and Growth
StandardandPoor's500TotalReturnIndex
TheS&PDowJonesIndicesLLCseriesareCopyright©2014,S&PDowJonesIndicesLLC.Allrightsreserved.
Percentchangefromayearago
Jan2010 Jan2011 Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2015 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
S&P500
Perc
entC
hang
efrom
Year
Ago
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 13
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
NIPAChainPriceIndexes
ConsumerPriceIndex
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
GrossDomesticProduct:Chain-typePriceIndexGrossDomesticPurchases:Chain-typePriceIndex
Perce
ntC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsLessFoodandEnergy
Perce
ntC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 14
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
ProducerPriceIndex,NewandOldMethodology
*DataPriortoNov.2010hastransitionedfromStageofProcessingtotheFinalDemand-IntermediateDemandaggregationsystem
EmploymentCostIndexandCompensationperHour
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
-7.5
-2.5
2.5
7.5
ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinishedGoods(DISCONTINUED)ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinishedGoodsLessFoodandEnergy(DISCONTINUED)ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemandProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemand:GoodslessFoodsandEnergy
Perce
ntC
hang
efrom
YearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-1
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
EmploymentCostIndex:Compensation:PrivateIndustryWorkersNonfarmBusinessSector:CompensationPerHour
Perce
ntC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 15
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
NIPAChainPriceIndexes
Oil&NaturalGasPrices:Spot&Futures
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
2.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
GrossDomesticProduct:Chain-typePriceIndexGrossDomesticPurchases:Chain-typePriceIndex
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Dollarsperbarrel
2015-01-01
2016-01-01
2018-01-01
2014-07-01
2015-07-01
2016-07-01
2017-01-01
2017-07-01
2018-07-01
2019-01-01
2012-07-01
2013-01-01
2013-07-01
2014-01-01
1990 2000 20101995 2005 2015
40
60
80
100
30
50
70
90
110
6.00
1.50
2.25
3.00
3.75
4.50
5.25
6.75
7.50
CrudeOilPrices:WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)-Cushing,Oklahoma(left)HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice(right)OilFutures(left)GasFutures(right)
Dolla
rspe
rBar
rel,
Perce
nt
DollarsperMillionBTU,Percent
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 16
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
ConsumerPriceIndex
ConsumptionChainPriceIndex
Compoundedannualratesofchange
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
2.5
5.0
7.5
ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsLessFoodandEnergy
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5.0
0.0
5.0
-2.5
2.5
7.5PersonalConsumptionExpenditures:Chain-typePriceIndexPersonalConsumptionExpendituresExcludingFoodandEnergy(Chain-TypePriceIndex)
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 17
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
ProducerPrceIndex,FinalDemand
UnitLaborCost
Compoundedannualratesofchange
Jan2015 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 May2017 Sep2017
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemandProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemand:GoodslessFoodsandEnergy
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-10
0
10
-15
-5
5
15
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
ManufacturingSector:UnitLaborCostNonfarmBusinessSector:UnitLaborCost
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 18
National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices
EmploymentCostIndex
CompensationperHour
Percentchangefromayearago
Q12013 Q12014 Q12015 Q12016 Q12017Q32012 Q32013 Q32014 Q32015 Q32016 Q32017
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1.0
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
EmploymentCostIndex:Compensation:PrivateIndustryWorkersEmploymentCostIndex:WagesandSalaries:PrivateIndustryWorkersEmploymentCostIndex:Benefits:PrivateIndustryWorkers
Perce
ntC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5
0
5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
NonfarmBusinessSector:CompensationPerHour
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 19
National Economic Trends - Labor Markets
Employment
Unemployment,LaborForceParticipation,andEmploymentRates
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrollsCivilianEmploymentLevel
Perce
ntCha
ngefrom
YearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentoflaborforce
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
57.0
58.5
60.0
61.5
63.0
64.5
66.0
67.5
69.0
CivilianUnemploymentRate(left)CivilianEmployment-PopulationRatio(right)CivilianLaborForceParticipationRate(right)
Perce
nt
Percent
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 20
National Economic Trends - Labor Markets
DurationofUnemploymentPercentoflaborforce
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
20
4
8
12
16
24
28
MedianDurationofUnemployment(rightscale)Unemployed>15Weeks(leftscale)Unemployed<5Weeks(leftscale)
(Perce
ntof
labo
rfor
ce)
(Weeks)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 21
National Economic Trends - Labor Markets
ChangeinNonfarmPayrolls
ChangeinManufacturingPayrolls
Thousands
Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrolls
Chan
ge,T
housan
dsof
Perso
ns
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Thousands
Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
AllEmployees:Manufacturing
Chan
ge,T
housan
dsof
Perso
ns
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 22
National Economic Trends - Labor Markets
ChangeinHouseholdEmployment
LaborForceandPopulation
Thousands
Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-400
0
400
800
-600
-200
200
600
1,000
CivilianEmploymentLevel
Chan
ge,T
housan
dsof
Perso
ns
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromayearago
Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
-0.5
0.5
1.5
CivilianLaborForceCivilianNoninstitutionalPopulation
Perce
ntCha
ngefrom
YearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 23
National Economic Trends - Labor Markets
AvailableLaborSupplyandComponents
UnemploymentRate&JobOpeningsRate
P ercentoflaborforce
Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
5
10
3
4
6
7
8
9
11
12
13
WanttoWorkUnemployedAvaliableLaborSupply
iPerce
ntof
laborforce)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
4
5
6
7
8
9
3.0
2.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
JobOpeningsRate(rightscale)UnemploymentRate(leftscale)
(Perce
nt) (Percent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 24
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
RealDisposablePersonalIncome
RealConsumption
Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlydata
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
7
RealDisposablePersonalIncome
(Per
cent
chan
gefro
may
eara
go)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlydata
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1960 1980 2000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0
6
-4
-2
2
4
8
Total(rightscale)Durables(leftscale)
(Per
cent)
(Percent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 25
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
RetailandFoodServicesSales
DatafromJan.1992tothepresentareonaNAICSbasis;datapriortoJan.1992areonanSICbasisandarenotstrictlycomparable(seeEndNote).
DebtServicePaymentsandHouseholdDebtOutstanding
Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlyaverage
Break
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
AdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServices,TotalRetailSales(DISCONTINUED);QuarterlyBreak
Perc
entC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1960 1980 2000
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-2.5
2.5
7.5
12.5
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
-6.0
-2.0
2.0
6.0
HouseholdDebtOutstanding(leftscale)DebtServicePayments(rightscale)
(Per
cent
chan
gefro
mye
arag
o,qu
arte
rlyda
ta)
(Percent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 26
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
RealDisposablePersonalIncome
PersonalSavingRate
Percentchange
May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
RealDisposablePersonalIncome
PercentChange
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
5
10
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
11
12
PersonalSavingRate
Percent
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 27
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
RealConsumption
RealConsumption
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
RealPersonalConsumptionExpendituresCompoundedAnnualRateofChange
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchange
Jan2016May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.0
0.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
RealPersonalConsumptionExpenditures
PercentChange
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 28
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
Retail&FoodServices
RealDurablesConsumption&VehicleSales
Percentchange
Jan2016 Jan2018May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0.0
2.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
AdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServices,TotalAdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServicesExcludingMotorVehiclesandPartsDealers
PercentChange
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchange
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1980 1990 2000 2010
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
28.0
LightWeightVehicleSales:AutosandLightTrucks(right)
PercentChange MillionsofUnits
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 29
National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending
ConsumerSentiment(U.ofMichigan)
RealDurablesConsumption
Index(6-MonthLag)
Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
70
80
90
100
75
85
95
105
UniversityofMichigan:ConsumerSentiment
Index1966:Q1=100
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.0
10.0
-2.5
2.5
5.0
7.5
12.5
15.0
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
RealPersonalConsumptionExpenditures:DurableGoods
CompoundedAnnualRateofChange
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 30
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
Investmeut
PrivateFixedIuvestmeut
PercentofnominalGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
TotalPrivate
(Perce
ntofnom
inalGD
P)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromyearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-20
-10
0
10
-25
-15
-5
5
15
RealPrivateFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)FixedPrivateIuvestmeut
Perce
ntChangefromYearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 30
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
RealNouresideutialFixedaudEquipmeutIuvestmeut
RealResideutialFixedIuvestmeut
Percentchangefromyearago
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
RealGrossPrivateDomesticIuvestmeut:FixedIuvestmeut:Nouresideutial:EquipmeutRealPrivateNouresideutialFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)
Perce
ntChangefromYearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromyearago
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
RealPrivateResideutialFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)
Perce
ntChangefromYearAgo
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Long-Run View 31
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
GrossSavingRatesandBalanceonCurrentAccount(NIPA)
RealPrivateFixedInvestment
PercentofGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GrossGovt.SavingGrossPrivate.SavingBOCA
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.0
10.0
-2.5
2.5
5.0
7.5
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
RealPrivateFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 32
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
NondefenseCapitalGoodsOrders
RealEquipmentInvestment
Percentchangefromyearago,excludingaircraft
Q12014 Q12016Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-10
0
10
20
-5
5
15
EquipmentInvestmentOrders
Perce
ntC
hang
efro
mYe
arA
go
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
2000 20102005 2015
-10
0
10
-15
-5
5
15
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
RealEquipmentInvestment
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 33
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
RealNonresidentialFixedInvestment
RealResidentialFixedInvestment
Compoundedannualratesofchange
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
2.5
5.0
7.5
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
RealPrivateNonresidentialFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
-10
0
10
-5
5
15
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
RealPrivateResidentialFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 34
National Economic Trends - Investment Spending
HousingStartsandNewHomeSalesMillions,annualrate
Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.60
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.65
0.70
HousingStarts(leftscale)NewHomeStarts(rightscale)
Mil
lion
s,
annu
alra
te Millions,annualrate
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Short-Run View 35
National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt
Govt.ConsumptionandInvestment
Govt.CurrentReceiptsandExpenditures
GovernmentBudgets
NationalIncomeAccountsCalendarYears
UnifiedBudgetFiscalYears
StateandLocal Federal Federal
Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)
Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)
Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)
2000 1,303.1 1,417.9 9.9 2,068.2 2,017.4 156.5 1,991.1 1,862.8 128.22001 1,352.6 1,509.4 -65.3 2,031.8 2,141.1 14.5 1,853.1 2,010.9 -157.82002 1,388.4 1,596.0 -120.9 1,870.6 2,297.9 -270.5 1,782.3 2,159.9 -377.62003 1,474.6 1,683.4 -121.4 1,895.1 2,426.6 -402.9 1,880.1 2,292.8 -412.72004 1,575.1 1,775.4 -108.4 2,027.4 2,608.2 -399.2 2,153.6 2,472.0 -318.32005 1,708.8 1,850.3 -66.6 2,303.5 2,764.8 -304.7 2,406.9 2,655.1 -248.22006 1,810.9 1,973.3 -39.4 2,537.7 2,932.8 -227.0 2,568.0 2,728.7 -160.72007 1,900.6 2,074.1 -72.7 2,667.2 3,213.5 -265.7 2,524.0 2,982.5 -458.62008 1,909.1 2,191.2 -165.1 2,579.5 3,487.2 -634.0 2,105.0 3,517.7 -1,412.72009 1,919.2 2,235.8 -271.9 2,238.4 3,772.0 -1,248.8 2,162.7 3,457.1 -1,294.42010 1,998.5 2,246.4 -237.3 2,443.3 3,818.3 -1,328.7 2,303.5 3,603.1 -1,299.62011 2,030.5 2,277.9 -215.9 2,574.1 3,789.1 -1,244.1 2,450.0 3,536.9 -1,087.0
Billionsof2009dollars
2000 20101995 2005 2015
1960 1980 2000
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
TotalState&LocalFederal
Billio
nsof
Cha
ined2
009D
ollars
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentofGDP
2000 20101995 2005 2015
1960 1980 2000
15
20
25
30
35
40
TotalExpendituresTotalReceiptsFed.ExpendituresFed.Receipts
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
BillionsofDollars
Receipts and Outlays 35
National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt
2012 2,057.2 2,327.3 -220.8 2,699.1 3,782.2 -1,090.1 2,775.1 3,454.6 -679.52013 2,136.8 2,405.6 -190.5 3,138.4 3,901.4 -643.8 3,021.5 3,506.1 -484.62014 2,236.7 2,497.0 -168.9 3,291.2 4,028.0 -610.2 3,249.9 3,688.4 -438.52015 2,350.7 2,583.7 -146.4 3,441.4 4,149.4 -586.7 3,268.0 3,852.6 -584.72016 2,416.3 2,668.7 -167.4 3,452.1 4,252.4 -697.3 3,314.9 3,980.6 -665.7
2016Q1 2,379.3 2,539.9 -160.6 3,400.9 4,108.5 -707.5 765.6 979.5 -213.92016Q2 2,388.9 2,573.8 -184.9 3,441.7 4,130.3 -688.5 710.6 956.1 -245.52016Q3 2,438.7 2,600.9 -162.2 3,486.3 4,165.3 -679.1 992.6 932.4 60.22016Q4 2,458.2 2,620.1 -161.9 3,479.4 4,193.3 -714.0 797.9 984.4 -186.52017Q1 2,465.2 2,645.1 -179.8 3,589.2 4,242.0 -652.8 740.8 950.6 -209.82017Q2 2,446.1 2,651.3 -205.2 3,556.4 4,198.3 -641.9 732.4 1049.4 -317.02017Q3 2,502.6 2,677.4 -174.8 3,604.2 4,235.5 -631.3 1034.7 1030.9 3.82016Q1 2,701.1 4,333.9 807.1 949.7 -142.6
Receipts and Outlays 36
National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt
FederalDebt
FederalSurplus(+)/Deficit(-)
NIPA:Netgovernmentsaving.
ChangeinFederalDebt
PercentofGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
20001950 1975
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
TotalHeldbyPublic
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentofGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1975 2000
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
-7.5
-2.5
2.5
UnifiedBudgetNIPA
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentofGDP
Debt and Budgets 37
National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt
FederalSurplus(+)/(-),UnifiedBasis
FederalGovernmentDebtHeldbyPublic HeldbyPrivateInvestors
TotalPublicDebt
HeldbyAgenciesandTrusts
TotalFederalReserveBanks
TotalForeign
andInternational
2014 17,824.1 5,039.3 12,784.8 2,767.3 10,333.2 6,069.22015 18,150.6 5,026.9 13,123.8 2,802.1 10,661.9 6,105.92016 19,573.4 5,395.7 14,177.8 2,830.1 11,709.9 6,158.12017 20,244.9 5,563.1 14,681.8 2,867.6 12,208.0 6,323.52014 March 17,601.2 4,982.0 12,643.2 2,614.6 10,299.7 5,948.3
June 17,632.6 5,060.6 12,572.0 2,705.9 10,171.6 6,018.7September 17,824.1 5,039.3 12,784.8 2,767.3 10,333.2 6,069.2December 18,141.4 5,117.6 13,023.8 2,793.4 10,562.6 6,157.7
2015 March 18,152.1 5,061.9 13,090.2 2,797.5 10,630.8 6,172.6June 18,152.0 5,077.0 13,075.0 2,798.5 10,615.5 6,163.1
September 18,150.6 5,026.9 13,123.8 2,802.1 10,661.9 6,105.9December 18,922.2 5,222.3 13,699.9 2,810.1 11,211.0 6,146.2
2016 March 19,264.9 5,335.2 13,929.8 2,815.3 11,463.6 6,286.5June 19,381.6 5,444.3 13,937.3 2,819.1 11,470.4 6,281.1
September 19,573.4 5,395.7 14,177.8 2,830.1 11,709.9 6,158.1December 19,976.8 5,537.5 14,439.3 2,843.7 11,971.3 6,006.3
2017 March 19,846.4 5,472.0 14,374.5 2,859.1 11,905.3 6,079.0June 19,844.6 5,473.7 14,370.9 2,864.1 11,901.1 6,171.6
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1960 1980 2000
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-2.5
2.5
7.5
12.5
TotalHeldbyPublic
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Billionsofdollars,fiscalyears
20001995 2005 2010 2015
1925 1950 1975 2000
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600TotalExcludingInterestPayments
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Billionsofdollars,endofmonthorfiscalyearExcludesAgency-issueddebt
Debt and Budgets 38
National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt
September 20,244.9 5,563.1 14,681.8 2,867.6 12,208.0 6,323.5
Debt and Budgets 39
National Economic Trends - International Trade
C�rreutAccouut,TradeaudIuvestmeutIucomeBalauces
ExchaugeRates
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2000 20102005 2015
-200
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
IuvestmeutIucome(leftscale)GoodsaudServices(leftscale)CurreutAccouut(rightscale)
(Billionsofdollars,quarterlyrate)
(PercentofGDP)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
1980 1990 2000 2010
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
80
120
160
60
100
140
180
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Yeu(rightscale)Ecu(rightscale)Euro(rightscale)MajorCurreucyIudex(leftscale)
(Index,March1973=100)
(Yen/US$,100x(EcuorEuro/US$0)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Exchange Rates and Trade 40
National Economic Trends - International Trade
GoodsExportShares,2014
GoodsImportShares,2014
UuitedKiugom:3.80%UuitedKiugom:3.80%
Mexico:15.78%Mexico:15.78%
Chiua:7.94%Chiua:7.94%
Japau:4.34%Japau:4.34%
Germauy:3.39%Germauy:3.39%
Cauada:18.33%Cauada:18.33%
OtherOECD:16.17%OtherOECD:16.17%
Frauce:2.14%Frauce:2.14%
AllOther:28.11%AllOther:28.11%
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
UuitedKiugom:2.46%UuitedKiugom:2.46%
Mexico:13.32%Mexico:13.32%
Chiua:20.95%Chiua:20.95%
Japau:5.98%Japau:5.98%
Germauy:5.17%Germauy:5.17%Cauada:12.58%Cauada:12.58%
OtherOECD:14.77%OtherOECD:14.77%
Frauce:2.12%Frauce:2.12%
AllOther:22.66%AllOther:22.66%
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Exchange Rates and Trade 41
National Economic Trends - International Trade
TradeBalance
GoodsTrade
Billionsofd ollars
Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-70
-60
-50
-40
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
GoodsandServicesGoods
(Billion
sofD
ollars)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentChangefromayearago
Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-10
0
10
-15
-5
5
15
ExportsImports
(PercentChangefromayearago)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 42
National Economic Trends - International Trade
CurrentAccountBalance
ServicesTrade
Billionsofdollars
2000 20102005 2015
-120
-100
-125
-115
-110
-105
Q12016 Q12017
(Billion
sofdollars)
CurrentAccountBalance
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentChangefromayearago
Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
5
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
ExportsImports
(Percentch
angefrom
ayearago)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 43
National Economic Trends - International Trade
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:UnitedKingdom
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Germany
Compoundannualratesofchange
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
UnitedKingdom
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundannualratesofchange
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
Germany
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 44
National Economic Trends - International Trade
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Canada
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:France
Compoundannualratesofchange
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-1
1
2
3
4
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
Canada
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundannualratesofchange
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
France
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 45
National Economic Trends - International Trade
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Japan
RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Mexico
Compoundannualratesofchange
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
Japan
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundannualratesofchange
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
5
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
Q12016 Q12017
(Percent)
Mexico
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 46
National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits
OutputperHourandCapacityUtilization,Manufacturing
NonfarmCompensationperHour
Percentchangefromayearago(Right)/Percent(Left)
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1980 1990 2000 2010
60
90
66
72
78
84
96
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0UtilizationRate(level)(rightscale)Output/Hour(leftscale)
PercentofCapacity
(Perce
ntch
angefr
oma
yearag
o)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0RealNominal
(Perce
ntch
angefr
oma
yearag
o)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 46
National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits
OutputperHour,NonfarmBuisnessandNonfinancialCorporationsPercentchangefromayearago
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
NonfarmBuisnessSectorNomfinancialCorporations
(Perce
ntch
angefr
oma
yearag
o)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 47
National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits
NoufarmOuputPerHour
ManufacturingOutputperHour
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
Q12016Q12015 Q12017
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
NonfarmOuputperhour
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Compoundedannualratesofchange
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Q12015 Q12016 Q12017
Comp
ound
edA
nnua
lRat
eofC
hang
e
ManufacturingOuputperHour
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 48
National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits
SelectedComponentSharesofNationalIncome
CorporateProfits(withIVAandCCAdj)
Percent
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1960 1980 2000
10
15
7
8
9
11
12
13
14
60
62
64
66
68
61
63
65
67
Proprietors'Income(leftscale)CorporateProfits(leftscale)
Compensation(rightscale)
(Perce
nt) (Percent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
PercentofGDP
2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13Profits(AfterTax)Profits(BeforeTax)
(Perce
ntof
GDP
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 49
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
ChangeinRealGDP(Q4/Q4)
UnemploymentRate(Q4)
Percent
Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20191.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsfortheGrowthRateofRealGrossDomesticProduct,Range,MidpointGrossDomesticProduct
LongRun
(Percent
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2011 Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20193
4
5
6
7
8
9
FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsfortheCivilianUnemploymentRate,Range,MidpointUnemploymentRate
LongRun
(Percent
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Feb 2018 Projections 50
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
ChangeinPCEPriceIndex(Q4/Q4)
ChangeinPCEPriceIndexExludingFoodandEnergyPrices(Q4/Q4)
Percent
Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20190.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsforthePersonalConsumptionExpendituresInflationRate,Range,MidpointPCE
LongRun
(Percent
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20191.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsforthePersonalConsumptionExpenditureslessFoodandEnergyInflationRate,Range,MidpointPCECore
(Percent
)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Feb 2018 Projections 51
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
ChangeinRealGDPfor2016
ChangeinRealGDPfor2017
Percent
9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Median
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Median
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 52
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
UnemploymentRatefor2016(Q4)
UnemploymentRatefor2017(Q4)
Percent
9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
Median
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
Median
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 53
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
ChangeinPCEPriceIndexfor2016
ChangeinPCEPriceIndexfor2017
Percent
9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Median
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Median
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 54
National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections
ChangeinPCECorePriceIndexfor2016
ChangeinPCECorePriceIndexfor2017
Percent
9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Median
(Per
cent)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Percent
9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017
Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
Median
(Perce
nt)
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 55
National Economic Trends - Real GDP Nowcast©
St.LouisFedEconomicNewsIndex:RealGDPNowcast©
St.LouisFed’sEconomicNewsIndex(ENI)useseconomiccontentfromkeymonthlyeconomicdatareleasestoforecastthegrowthofrealGDPduringthatquarter.Ingeneral,themost-currentobservationisrevisedmultipletimesthroughoutthequarter.Thefinalforecastedvalue(beforetheBEA’sreleaseoftheadvanceestimateofGDP)isthestatic,historicalvalueforthatquarter.Formoreinformation,see,Grover,SeanP.;Kliesen,KevinL.;andMcCracken,
MichaelW.“AMacroeconomicNewsIndexforConstructingNowcastsofU.S.RealGrossDomesticProductGrowth",
RevisedWeeklyPredictionsfortheFourthQuarter,1969
1:00:00.000
1.0
2.0
1.5
Inde
x
FourthQuarter,1969Forecasts
ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org
Real GDP Nowcast© 56
National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables
NominalGDP RealGDP FinalSalesChangein
PrivateInventoriesPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange Billionsof2009$
Billionsof$
Annualrate
Yearago
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago Lastqtr Year/yearago
2014 17427.6 4.4 16013.283 2.6 15932.905 2.7 67.7772015 18120.7 4.0 16471.516 2.9 16354.301 2.6 100.5492016 18624.5 2.8 16716.164 1.5 16664.085 1.9 33.3652017 19386.8 4.1 0.000 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0002014 1 17031.3 0.7 3.4 15757.570 -0.9 1.7 15707.413 0.8 1.8 38.720 75.980
2 17320.9 7.0 4.7 15935.825 4.6 2.7 15852.340 3.7 2.5 69.897 80.3073 17622.3 7.1 5.2 16139.513 5.2 3.2 16040.283 4.8 3.4 85.584 74.4494 17735.9 2.6 4.3 16220.222 2.0 2.7 16131.585 2.3 2.9 76.905 67.777
2015 1 17874.7 3.2 5.0 16349.970 3.2 3.8 16202.291 1.8 3.2 132.216 91.1512 18093.2 5.0 4.5 16460.889 2.7 3.3 16338.632 3.4 3.1 105.559 100.0663 18227.7 3.0 3.4 16527.587 1.6 2.4 16414.142 1.9 2.3 96.212 102.7234 18287.2 1.3 3.1 16547.619 0.5 2.0 16462.138 1.2 2.0 68.208 100.549
2016 1 18325.2 0.8 2.5 16571.573 0.6 1.4 16512.674 1.2 1.9 40.601 77.6452 18538.0 4.7 2.5 16663.516 2.2 1.2 16632.600 2.9 1.8 12.202 54.3063 18729.1 4.2 2.8 16778.148 2.8 1.5 16741.079 2.6 2.0 17.597 34.6524 18905.5 3.8 3.4 16851.420 1.8 1.8 16769.987 0.7 1.9 63.059 33.365
2017 1 19057.7 3.3 4.0 16903.240 1.2 2.0 16883.467 2.7 2.2 1.172 23.5082 19250.0 4.1 3.8 17031.085 3.1 2.2 17006.646 3.0 2.2 5.498 21.8323 19500.6 5.3 4.14 19738.9 5.0 4.4
Consumption DurablesConsumption PrivateFixedInvestment
ChangeinNon-ResidentialFixedInvestment
PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChangeBillions
of$Annual
rateYearago
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago
2014 10868.4 2.9 1403.087 6.9 2677.274 6.2 2172.679 6.92015 11264.3 3.6 1511.824 7.7 2782.739 3.9 2223.533 2.32016 11572.1 2.7 1595.081 5.5 2803.446 0.7 2210.419 -0.62017 11888.9 2.7 1702.139 6.7 0.000 0.0 0.000 0.02014 1 10713.4 1.9 2.0 1350.926 5.5 4.1 2599.376 5.1 4.7 2112.552 7.2 5.3
2 10805.1 3.5 2.7 1393.556 13.2 6.9 2663.000 10.2 6.1 2160.631 9.4 7.03 10909.9 3.9 3.2 1419.647 7.7 7.8 2722.479 9.2 7.7 2215.096 10.5 9.14 11045.2 5.1 3.6 1448.219 8.3 8.7 2724.240 0.3 6.1 2202.437 -2.3 6.1
2015 1 11145.3 3.7 4.0 1475.573 7.8 9.2 2751.522 4.1 5.9 2214.696 2.2 4.82 11227.9 3.0 3.9 1506.305 8.6 8.1 2783.390 4.7 4.5 2230.697 2.9 3.23 11304.6 2.8 3.6 1524.853 5.0 7.4 2806.596 3.4 3.1 2238.798 1.5 1.14 11379.3 2.7 3.0 1540.563 4.2 6.4 2789.447 -2.4 2.4 2209.941 -5.1 0.3
2016 1 11430.5 1.8 2.6 1544.395 1.0 4.7 2787.837 -0.2 1.3 2187.499 -4.0 -1.22 11537.7 3.8 2.8 1576.170 8.5 4.6 2797.464 1.4 0.5 2205.321 3.3 -1.13 11618.1 2.8 2.8 1611.891 9.4 5.7 2808.150 1.5 0.1 2223.993 3.4 -0.74 11702.1 2.9 2.8 1647.868 9.2 7.0 2820.331 1.7 1.1 2224.864 0.2 0.7
2017 1 11758.0 1.9 2.9 1647.313 -0.1 6.7 2875.663 8.1 3.2 2263.637 7.2 3.52 11853.0 3.3 2.7 1677.793 7.6 6.4 2898.459 3.2 3.6 2300.598 6.7 4.33 11916.6 2.2 2.6 1712.859 8.6 6.34 12028.1 3.8 2.8 1770.591 14.2 7.4
GDP, Final Sales, Private Inventories, Consumption, and Investment 57
National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables
GDPChainPriceIndex
EmploymentCostIndex ECI:Wages ECI:Benefits
PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange
Index Annualrate
Yearago Index Annual
rateYearago Index Annual
rateYearago Index Annual
rateYearago
2014 108.839 1.8 121.2 2.0 120.6 2.0 122.7 2.32015 110.012 1.1 123.8 2.1 123.3 2.2 124.7 1.62016 111.419 1.3 126.4 2.1 126.2 2.4 126.7 1.62017 113.427 1.8 129.5 2.5 129.5 2.6 129.5 2.22014 1 108.103 1.6 1.7 119.9 1.0 1.7 119.4 1.0 1.7 121.3 1.7 1.8
2 108.694 2.2 2.0 120.9 3.4 2.0 120.2 2.7 1.9 122.6 4.4 2.43 109.200 1.9 1.9 121.7 2.7 2.3 121.1 3.0 2.3 123.2 2.0 2.44 109.359 0.6 1.6 122.3 2.0 2.3 121.7 2.0 2.2 123.8 2.0 2.5
2015 1 109.322 -0.1 1.1 123.2 3.0 2.8 122.6 3.0 2.7 124.5 2.3 2.62 109.921 2.2 1.1 123.2 0.0 1.9 122.8 0.7 2.2 124.2 -1.0 1.33 110.298 1.4 1.0 124.0 2.6 1.9 123.6 2.6 2.1 124.8 1.9 1.34 110.507 0.8 1.0 124.6 1.9 1.9 124.3 2.3 2.1 125.3 1.6 1.2
2016 1 110.588 0.3 1.2 125.4 2.6 1.8 125.1 2.6 2.0 125.9 1.9 1.12 111.257 2.4 1.2 126.1 2.3 2.4 126.0 2.9 2.6 126.4 1.6 1.83 111.641 1.4 1.2 126.7 1.9 2.2 126.6 1.9 2.4 127.0 1.9 1.84 112.190 2.0 1.5 127.3 1.9 2.2 127.2 1.9 2.3 127.5 1.6 1.8
2017 1 112.752 2.0 2.0 128.3 3.2 2.3 128.3 3.5 2.6 128.3 2.5 1.92 113.037 1.0 1.6 129.0 2.2 2.3 129.0 2.2 2.4 129.1 2.5 2.13 113.626 2.1 1.8 130.0 3.1 2.6 129.9 2.8 2.6 130.0 2.8 2.44 114.291 2.4 1.9 130.6 1.9 2.6 130.7 2.5 2.8 130.5 1.5 2.4
Exports ImportsNonfarm
OutputperHourNonfarm
CompensationperHourPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange
Billionsof2009$
Annualrate
Yearago
Billionsof2005$
Annualrate
Yearago Index Annual
rateYearago Index Annual
rateYearago
2014 2118.37 4.3 2546.054 4.5 105.682 1.0 111.253 2.92015 2127.05 0.4 2672.350 5.0 106.997 1.2 114.711 3.12016 2120.06 -0.3 2706.309 1.3 106.995 -0.0 115.988 1.12017 0.00 0.0 0.000 0.0 108.327 1.2 117.669 1.42014 1 2075.76 -2.4 4.3 2486.757 5.0 3.4 104.774 -3.4 0.5 110.986 6.8 4.0
2 2121.80 9.2 5.3 2547.962 10.2 4.6 105.386 2.4 1.2 110.297 -2.5 1.93 2125.11 0.6 4.6 2541.770 -1.0 3.9 106.530 4.4 1.9 111.166 3.2 2.44 2150.80 4.9 3.0 2607.725 10.8 6.2 106.037 -1.8 0.3 112.563 5.1 3.1
2015 1 2126.38 -4.5 2.4 2650.521 6.7 6.6 106.748 2.7 1.9 113.490 3.3 2.32 2145.78 3.7 1.1 2671.995 3.3 4.9 107.081 1.3 1.6 114.485 3.6 3.83 2124.13 -4.0 -0.0 2683.435 1.7 5.6 107.426 1.3 0.8 114.805 1.1 3.34 2111.93 -2.3 -1.8 2683.450 0.0 2.9 106.732 -2.6 0.7 116.062 4.5 3.1
2016 1 2098.08 -2.6 -1.3 2682.298 -0.2 1.2 106.417 -1.2 -0.3 114.945 -3.8 1.32 2112.50 2.8 -1.6 2684.905 0.4 0.5 106.638 0.8 -0.4 116.294 4.8 1.63 2145.28 6.4 1.0 2702.569 2.7 0.7 107.295 2.5 -0.1 117.026 2.5 1.94 2124.38 -3.8 0.6 2755.464 8.1 2.7 107.630 1.3 0.8 115.685 -4.5 -0.3
2017 1 2162.30 7.3 3.1 2784.515 4.3 3.8 107.664 0.1 1.2 117.080 4.9 1.92 2181.15 3.5 3.2 2794.781 1.5 4.1 108.069 1.5 1.3 117.169 0.3 0.8
2014 1 108.803 2.7 1.4 117.943 2.7 0.82 108.772 -0.1 1.1 118.482 1.8 2.4
GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Trade, Productivity, and Compensation 59
National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables
Ho�seholdSnrveryEmployment NonfarmPayrollEmployment NonfarmAggregateHonrsPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange
Thousands Change Annualrate
Yearago Thousands Change Annual
rateYearago Index Monthly
rateAnnualrate
Yearago
2013 143941 1466 1.0 136369 2197 1.6 106.1 1.82014 146317 2376 1.7 138937 2568 1.9 108.5 2.32015 148845 2528 1.7 141819 2882 2.1 110.9 2.22016 151440 2595 1.7 144349 2530 1.8 112.6 1.52017 153337 1897 1.3 146623 2274 1.6 114.9 2.02015 1 148129 663 1.8 1.9 140796 685 2.0 2.2 110.1 0.4 1.5 2.9
2 148700 571 1.6 1.9 141500 704 2.0 2.1 110.4 0.3 1.1 1.93 148925 225 0.6 1.6 142131 631 1.8 2.0 111.1 0.6 2.6 1.84 149625 700 1.9 1.5 142849 718 2.0 2.0 111.8 0.6 2.5 1.9
2016 1 150937 1312 3.6 1.9 143446 597 1.7 1.9 112.1 0.3 1.1 1.82 151063 126 0.3 1.6 143980 534 1.5 1.8 112.3 0.2 0.7 1.73 151662 599 1.6 1.8 144711 731 2.0 1.8 112.7 0.4 1.4 1.44 152099 437 1.2 1.7 145260 549 1.5 1.7 113.4 0.6 2.5 1.4
2017 1 152550 451 1.2 1.1 145854 594 1.6 1.7 114.0 0.5 2.1 1.72 153101 551 1.5 1.3 146327 473 1.3 1.6 114.7 0.6 2.5 2.13 153769 668 1.8 1.4 146880 553 1.5 1.5 115.0 0.3 1.1 2.04 153928 159 0.4 1.2 147431 551 1.5 1.5 115.8 0.7 2.8 2.1
2018 1 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02016 Jan 150576 441 3.6 1.7 143196 103 0.9 1.9 112.4 0.1 1.1 2.3
Feb 151005 429 3.5 2.0 143453 257 2.2 1.8 111.9 -0.4 -5.2 1.6Mar 151229 224 1.8 2.1 143688 235 2.0 2.0 112.1 0.2 2.2 1.7Apr 150978 -251 -2.0 1.7 143862 174 1.5 1.9 112.2 0.1 1.1 1.9May 151048 70 0.6 1.5 143896 34 0.3 1.7 112.2 0.0 0.0 1.6Jun 151164 116 0.9 1.6 144181 285 2.4 1.7 112.4 0.2 2.2 1.4Jul 151484 320 2.6 1.8 144506 325 2.7 1.8 112.7 0.3 3.3 1.5Aug 151687 203 1.6 1.7 144681 175 1.5 1.8 112.5 -0.2 -2.1 1.3Sep 151815 128 1.0 2.0 144945 264 2.2 1.9 113.0 0.4 5.5 1.5Oct 151939 124 1.0 1.8 145085 140 1.2 1.7 113.2 0.2 2.1 1.5Nov 152126 187 1.5 1.8 145257 172 1.4 1.7 113.3 0.1 1.1 1.4Dec 152233 107 0.8 1.4 145437 180 1.5 1.6 113.6 0.3 3.2 1.2
2017 Jan 152076 -157 -1.2 1.0 145696 259 2.2 1.7 113.8 0.2 2.1 1.2Feb 152511 435 3.5 1.0 145896 200 1.7 1.7 114.0 0.2 2.1 1.9Mar 153064 553 4.4 1.2 145969 73 0.6 1.6 114.1 0.1 1.1 1.8Apr 153161 97 0.8 1.4 146144 175 1.4 1.6 114.6 0.4 5.4 2.1May 152892 -269 -2.1 1.2 146299 155 1.3 1.7 114.4 -0.2 -2.1 2.0Jun 153250 358 2.8 1.4 146538 239 2.0 1.6 115.0 0.5 6.5 2.3Jul 153511 261 2.1 1.3 146728 190 1.6 1.5 115.1 0.1 1.0 2.1Aug 153471 -40 -0.3 1.2 146949 221 1.8 1.6 115.0 -0.1 -1.0 2.2Sep 154324 853 6.9 1.7 146963 14 0.1 1.4 115.0 0.0 0.0 1.8Oct 153846 -478 -3.7 1.3 147234 271 2.2 1.5 115.6 0.5 6.4 2.1Nov 153917 71 0.6 1.2 147450 216 1.8 1.5 115.8 0.2 2.1 2.2Dec 154021 104 0.8 1.2 147610 160 1.3 1.5 115.9 0.1 1.0 2.0
2018 Jan 154430 409 3.2 1.5 147810 200 1.6 1.5 115.8 -0.1 -1.0 1.8
Employment and Nonfarm Aggregate Hours 61
National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables
Unempl.Rate RetailandFoodServicesSales IndustrialProduction
TreasuryYields
PercentChange PercentChange (Percent)Billions
ofDollarsMonthly/quarterly
Annualrate
Yearago Index Monthly/
quarterlyAnnual
rateYearago 3-mo 10-yr
2013 7.4 5002.211 3.8 101.9753 2.0 0.06 2.352014 6.2 5211.494 4.2 105.1294 3.1 0.03 2.542015 5.3 5347.338 2.6 104.3840 -0.7 0.05 2.142016 4.9 5504.773 2.9 103.1058 -1.2 0.32 1.842017 4.4 5759.405 4.6 105.1315 2.0 0.93 2.332016 1 4.9 1350.654 -0.1 -0.4 2.9 103.0923 -0.3 -1.3 -2.2 0.29 1.92
2 4.9 1370.547 1.5 6.0 2.7 102.9166 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 0.26 1.753 4.9 1382.987 0.9 3.7 2.6 103.1177 0.2 0.8 -1.2 0.30 1.564 4.7 1400.585 1.3 5.2 3.6 103.2965 0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.43 2.13
2017 1 4.7 1420.196 1.4 5.7 5.1 103.6924 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.59 2.442 4.3 1423.795 0.3 1.0 3.9 105.1225 1.4 5.6 2.1 0.89 2.263 4.3 1439.478 1.1 4.5 4.1 104.7962 -0.3 -1.2 1.6 1.04 2.244 4.1 1475.936 2.5 10.5 5.4 106.9150 2.0 8.3 3.5 1.21 2.37
2018 1 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.002015 Dec 5.0 448.171 -1.0 -11.5 2.8 103.4822 0.5 6.8 -2.0 0.26 2.092016 Jan 4.9 451.209 0.7 8.4 3.9 103.2685 -0.2 -2.5 -2.1 0.31 1.78
Feb 4.9 451.274 0.0 0.2 2.0 102.5263 -0.7 -8.3 -2.4 0.29 1.89Mar 5.0 454.231 0.7 8.2 2.7 102.8697 0.3 4.1 -1.7 0.23 1.81Apr 5.0 455.753 0.3 4.1 2.1 102.7552 -0.1 -1.3 -1.5 0.27 1.81May 4.7 460.563 1.1 13.4 3.2 103.1249 0.4 4.4 -0.8 0.27 1.64Jun 4.9 459.744 -0.2 -2.1 2.3 103.2173 0.1 1.1 -1.2 0.30 1.50Jul 4.9 460.198 0.1 1.2 2.4 103.1459 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.30 1.56Aug 4.9 463.045 0.6 7.7 3.0 102.9898 -0.2 -1.8 -1.2 0.29 1.63Sep 5.0 465.977 0.6 7.9 3.9 103.1742 0.2 2.2 -0.8 0.33 1.76Oct 4.9 465.668 -0.1 -0.8 3.4 102.9478 -0.2 -2.6 -0.4 0.45 2.14Nov 4.6 468.94 0.7 8.8 3.6 103.7675 0.8 10.0 0.8 0.51 2.49Dec 4.7 474.692 1.2 15.8 5.9 103.4572 -0.3 -3.5 -0.0 0.51 2.43
2017 Jan 4.8 472.513 -0.5 -5.4 4.7 103.7038 0.2 2.9 0.4 0.52 2.42Feb 4.7 472.991 0.1 1.2 4.8 103.9162 0.2 2.5 1.4 0.74 2.48Mar 4.5 474.547 0.3 4.0 4.5 105.0468 1.1 13.9 2.1 0.80 2.30Apr 4.4 474.76 0.0 0.5 4.2 105.0682 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.89 2.30May 4.3 474.488 -0.1 -0.7 3.0 105.2526 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.98 2.19Jun 4.3 476.752 0.5 5.9 3.7 105.0086 -0.2 -2.7 1.7 1.07 2.32Jul 4.3 476.513 -0.1 -0.6 3.5 104.5605 -0.4 -5.0 1.4 1.01 2.21Aug 4.4 486.213 2.0 27.4 5.0 104.8195 0.2 3.0 1.8 1.03 2.20Sep 4.2 489.468 0.7 8.3 5.0 106.5818 1.7 22.1 3.3 1.07 2.36Oct 4.1 493.168 0.8 9.5 5.9 106.8643 0.3 3.2 3.8 1.23 2.35Nov 4.1 493.3 0.0 0.3 5.2 107.2989 0.4 5.0 3.4 1.32 2.40Dec 4.1 492.003 -0.3 -3.1 3.6 107.2433 -0.1 -0.6 3.7 1.41 2.58
2018 Jan 4.1 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00
Unemployment Rate, Retail and Food Services Sales, Industrial Production, and Treasury Yields 63
National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables
Co�s�merPriceIndexConsumerPriceIndexlessFoodandEnergy
ProducerPriceIndexFinalDemand
PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange
Index Monthly/quarterly
Annualrate
Yearago Index Monthly/
quarterlyAnnualrate
Yearago Index Monthly/
quarterlyAnnualrate
Yearago
2014 236.707 1.6 237.901 1.7 110.9 1.62015 236.993 0.1 242.252 1.8 109.9 -0.92016 240.006 1.3 247.607 2.2 110.4 0.52017 245.139 2.1 252.173 1.8 113.0 2.42016 1 237.848 -0.0 -0.1 1.1 245.609 0.6 2.3 2.2 109.8 0.2 0.7 0.0
2 239.452 0.7 2.7 1.1 246.985 0.6 2.3 2.2 110.2 0.4 1.5 0.23 240.548 0.5 1.8 1.1 248.309 0.5 2.2 2.2 110.5 0.3 1.1 0.34 242.177 0.7 2.7 1.8 249.526 0.5 2.0 2.2 111.1 0.5 2.2 1.4
2017 1 243.949 0.7 3.0 2.6 250.884 0.5 2.2 2.1 112.0 0.8 3.3 2.02 244.010 0.0 0.1 1.9 251.382 0.2 0.8 1.8 112.6 0.5 2.2 2.23 245.297 0.5 2.1 2.0 252.534 0.5 1.8 1.7 113.1 0.4 1.8 2.44 247.301 0.8 3.3 2.1 253.891 0.5 2.2 1.7 114.3 1.1 4.3 2.9
2018 1 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02016 Jan 237.990 0.1 0.8 1.3 245.134 0.2 2.7 2.2 110.0 0.5 5.6 -0.1
Feb 237.532 -0.2 -2.3 1.0 245.689 0.2 2.8 2.3 109.7 -0.3 -3.2 0.1Mar 238.022 0.2 2.5 0.9 246.004 0.1 1.5 2.2 109.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1Apr 238.843 0.3 4.2 1.1 246.487 0.2 2.4 2.1 109.8 0.2 2.2 0.2May 239.439 0.2 3.0 1.0 247.031 0.2 2.7 2.2 110.1 0.3 3.3 0.0Jun 240.074 0.3 3.2 1.0 247.436 0.2 2.0 2.2 110.6 0.5 5.6 0.2Jul 240.058 -0.0 -0.1 0.9 247.812 0.2 1.8 2.2 110.6 0.0 0.0 0.1Aug 240.569 0.2 2.6 1.1 248.400 0.2 2.9 2.3 110.3 -0.3 -3.2 0.0Sep 241.017 0.2 2.3 1.5 248.716 0.1 1.5 2.2 110.6 0.3 3.3 0.7Oct 241.667 0.3 3.3 1.6 249.064 0.1 1.7 2.2 110.9 0.3 3.3 1.2Nov 242.081 0.2 2.1 1.7 249.519 0.2 2.2 2.1 111.0 0.1 1.1 1.2Dec 242.784 0.3 3.5 2.1 249.996 0.2 2.3 2.2 111.4 0.4 4.4 1.7
2017 Jan 244.028 0.5 6.3 2.5 250.661 0.3 3.2 2.3 112.0 0.5 6.7 1.8Feb 244.102 0.0 0.4 2.8 251.088 0.2 2.1 2.2 111.9 -0.1 -1.1 2.0Mar 243.717 -0.2 -1.9 2.4 250.904 -0.1 -0.9 2.0 112.0 0.1 1.1 2.2Apr 244.087 0.2 1.8 2.2 251.125 0.1 1.1 1.9 112.5 0.4 5.5 2.5May 243.911 -0.1 -0.9 1.9 251.331 0.1 1.0 1.7 112.6 0.1 1.1 2.3Jun 244.032 0.0 0.6 1.6 251.690 0.1 1.7 1.7 112.7 0.1 1.1 1.9Jul 244.236 0.1 1.0 1.7 252.050 0.1 1.7 1.7 112.8 0.1 1.1 2.0Aug 245.262 0.4 5.2 2.0 252.610 0.2 2.7 1.7 113.1 0.3 3.2 2.5Sep 246.392 0.5 5.7 2.2 252.943 0.1 1.6 1.7 113.4 0.3 3.2 2.5Oct 246.583 0.1 0.9 2.0 253.484 0.2 2.6 1.8 114.0 0.5 6.5 2.8Nov 247.411 0.3 4.1 2.2 253.791 0.1 1.5 1.7 114.4 0.4 4.3 3.1Dec 247.910 0.2 2.4 2.1 254.398 0.2 2.9 1.8 114.4 0.0 0.0 2.7
2018 Jan 249.245 0.5 6.7 2.1 255.287 0.3 4.3 1.8 114.9 0.4 5.4 2.6
CPI and PPI 65