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National Energy Roadmaps for Islands (infographic...

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Million Barbados Dollars/year 0 100 150 200 250 350 50 300 400 2030 EV ambitious, daytime charging 2030 Low Oil Price Battery Storage Utility scale Wind Utility scale PV Sugarcane bagasse New fossil fuel generators Fossil fuels O&M 2030 EE 2014 Baseline 2030 Reference LOW OIL PRICE ENERGY EFFICIENCY ELECTRIC VEHICLES REFERENCE SCENARIO 2014 BASELINE RE share in 2030 RE share in 2030 RE share in 2030 RE share in 2030 68% 80% 75% 76% Annual generation consolidated (TWh) Biomass Imports CSP Distributed PV Centralized PV Wind Natural Gas Diesel HFO 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2030: Max RE 2030: Min RE 2013 Generation cost (USD/MWh) RE share 172 6.5% Generation cost (USD/MWh) RE share 120 25.6% Generation cost (USD/MWh) RE share 110 40.0% GWh 0 5 10 15 25 Diesel PV 20 2016 RE share 8% 22 2 2025 RE share 35 % 10.7 5.7 Load (MW) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 12 15 18 23 19 20 21 22 24 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 11 13 14 16 17 Electricity demand PV output curtailed PV output dispatched 0 0 1000 -1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of hours of the year Load Duration Curve in 2030 Load Duration Curve in 2015 Residual Load Duaration Curve in 2030 Power (MW) Peak Demand Peak Residual Demand Wind + Solar PV Dispatchable plants Min Demand 2030 Min Residual Demand 2030 Curtailment at 55% instant penetration limit Curtailment at 75% instant penetration limit Not shown on map: 119 MW small hydro 1 174 MW large hydro 9 MW biogas 102 MW off-grid solar systems Solar PV Wind onshore Bioenergy power 480 MW 576 MW 60 MW (landfill gas) 342 MW (DG) 538 MW (utility) 342 MW (DG) 538 MW (utility) 480 MW 423 MW 70 MW (co-firing) 40 MW (landfill gas) 24 MW (bagasse) 120 MW (landfill gas) 153 MW 192 MW 54 MW (bagasse) 70 MW (bagasse) Requires Investment Meet demand when RE is not available Stored electricity can: Support electricity system's frequency and voltage The key value proposition for batteries is to provide operating reserves to compensate for forecast errors, as well as for rapid changes in solar and wind output Meet peak demand without the need to commit additional ther- mal generation units - + Capacity expansion Dispatching ROADMAP PROCESS ROADMAP ANALYSIS ROADMAP INSIGHTS ROADMAP REQUEST • Letter from Member country to IRENA's Director General • Defines rationale for roadmaps TODAY'S ENERGY SYSTEM SMALL ISLANDS • Capacity expansion and dispatching analysis can be combined to deliver an optimal system • Limited total investment: Optimal system can be installed as a single project replacing the existing electricity system BIG ISLANDS • Optimal generation mix too costly for one project • Analysis provides project time-line of inves- tments to meet demand over period of ro- admap • Dispatching investigates the impact of each project to ensure optimal evolution of power system FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM • Identifies the least-cost, technically sound energy mix to meets government’s policy priorities • For most islands focuses on electricity generation, the sector where renewables can have the greatest impact • Delivers quantitative insights from detailed modeling of power system capacity expansion and dispatching SCOPE OF WORK • Defines analysis and deliverables based on: • Government priorities • Available data ROADMAP ANALYSIS • Determines least-cost future energy system • Provides specific policy recommendations WORKSHOP • Analysis results discussed with government and stakeholder • Workshop insights incorporated into final report REPORT • Delivered for government endorsement • Gives full analysis details and recommendations • Additional deliverables can include: • Models developed • Communications materials Roadmaps support an Island's transition to renewable energy by providing clear pathways for the deployment of renewables that cover the necessary technical, economic and policy elements. The roadmap analysis is usually centred on identifying the least-cost power system for the future, with additional assessments of how this system would be optimally dispatched. This analysis can be supported by an examination of the potential for renewables in end-uses and other sectors such as: heating, cooling and transportation. The roadmap also contains specific policy recommendations to enable its implementation. NATIONAL ENERGY ROADMAPS FOR ISLANDS Government Energy sector stakeholders IRENA International / regional partners Capacity expansion Dispatching model Roadmap quantitative insights Roadmap policy recommendations Grid integration study • Examines power sector investment options and operational costs • Determines least-cost system to meet long term demand (10 to 20+ years) • Least-cost power system is dispatched with high time resolution • Identifies operational constraints and cost impacts • Complementary analysis based on roadmap insights • Very high time resolution • Identifies specific measures that address operational constraints • Quantitative insights used to develop policy recommendations • Typically address transitioning from a power system where costs are driven by fuel consumption to a renewables system where costs are driven by upfront investments • The roadmap included six scenarios to provide insight on the impact of key energy sector decisions including: • Deploying an undersea electrical cable • The potential for natural gas generation • Renewables played a key role in all scenarios covering 26 to 40 percent of 2030 demand • The roadmap included analysis on integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) covering: • Recommendations on VRE forecasting • Options for VRE to provide grid support services Roadmap gives detailed insight on how renewables can reduce power sector costs. Roadmap identifies options to support battery storage deployment. Capacity expansion model shows that renewables can reduce generation costs. Roadmaps optimized 2025 system grealy expands PV generation. REmap analysis provides insight on integrating higher shares of PV and wind. Dominican Republic REmap 2030 analsys shows significant renewables capacity expansion is possible. Roadmap shows that PV curtailment is a potential issue and identifies specific measures to boost RE share. Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030 Production cost modelling of 2014 and 2030 scenarios Capacity expansion Dispatching Capacity expansion Dispatching Capacity expansion Dispatching BARBADOS Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030 EU JRC performed production cost modelling of 2030 scenarios CYPRUS Least-cost system design and modular deployment 2015-2025 for two main islands Optimized dispatch of 2014 and 2025 least-cost system for two main islands KIRIBATI REmap analysis identified the potential for RE in the energy mix by 2030 VRE penetration and transmission bottlenecks estimated based on projected VRE generation and duration curves DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ROADMAP Renewables integration measures
Transcript
Page 1: National Energy Roadmaps for Islands (infographic poster)us-cdn.creamermedia.co.za/...irena_island_roadmap... · ROADMAP PROCESS ROADMAP ANALYSIS ROADMAP INSIGHTS ROADMAP REQUEST

MillionBarbados Dollars/year 0

100

150

200

250

350

50

300

400

2030 EV ambitious,daytime charging 2030 Low Oil Price

Battery Storage

Utility scale Wind

Utility scale PV

Sugarcane bagasse

New fossil fuelgeneratorsFossil fuels

O&M

2030 EE2014 Baseline 2030 Reference

LOW OILPRICE

ENERGYEFFICIENCY

ELECTRICVEHICLES

REFERENCESCENARIO

2014BASELINE

RE sharein 2030

RE sharein 2030

RE sharein 2030

RE sharein 2030

68%80% 75%76%

Annual generation consolidated (TWh)

Biomass ImportsCSPDistributed PVCentralized PVWindNatural GasDieselHFO

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2030: Max RE2030: Min RE2013

Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share

1726.5%

Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share

12025.6%

Generation cost (USD/MWh)RE share

11040.0%

GWh

0

5

10

15

25

Diesel PV

20

2016

RE share

8%

22

2

2025

RE share

35%

10.7

5.7

Load (MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 12 15 18 2319 20 21 22 2410987654321 11 13 14 16 17

Electricity demandPV output curtailedPV output dispatched

0

0

1000

-1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

20 40 60 80 100 Percent of hoursof the year

Load Duration Curve in 2030 Load Duration Curve in 2015Residual Load Duaration Curve in 2030

Power (MW)

Peak Demand

Peak Residual Demand

Wind + Solar PV

Dispatchable plantsMin Demand2030

Min ResidualDemand 2030

Curtailment at 55%instant penetration limit

Curtailment at 75%instant penetration limit

Not shown on map:

119 MW small hydro

1 174 MW large hydro

9 MW biogas

102 MW o�-grid solar systems

Solar PVWind onshoreBioenergy power

480 MW 576 MW

60 MW(landfill gas)

342 MW (DG)538 MW (utility)

342 MW (DG)538 MW (utility)

480 MW

423 MW

70 MW(co-firing)

40 MW(landfill gas)24 MW

(bagasse)

120 MW(landfill gas)

153 MW

192 MW

54 MW (bagasse)

70 MW (bagasse)

Requires Investment

Meet demand when RE is not available

Stored electricity can:

Support electricity system's frequency and voltage

The key value proposition for batteries is to provide operating reserves to compensate for forecast errors, as well as for rapid changes in solar and wind output

Meet peak demand without the need to commit additional ther-mal generation units

-

+

Capacity expansion

Dispatching

ROADMAP PROCESS

ROADMAP ANALYSIS ROADMAP INSIGHTS

ROADMAP REQUEST• Letter from Member country to

IRENA's Director General

• Defines rationale for roadmaps

TODAY'S ENERGY SYSTEM

SMALL ISLANDS

• Capacity expansion and dispatching analysis can be combined to deliver an optimal system

• Limited total investment: Optimal system can be installed as a single project

replacing the existing electricity system

BIG ISLANDS

• Optimal generation mix too costly for one project

• Analysis provides project time-line of inves-tments to meet demand over period of ro-admap

• Dispatching investigates the impact of each project to ensure optimal evolution of power system

FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM

• Identifies the least-cost, technically sound energy mix to meets government’s policy priorities• For most islands focuses on electricity generation, the sector where renewables can have the greatest impact• Delivers quantitative insights from detailed modeling of power system capacity expansion and dispatching

SCOPE OF WORK• Defines analysis and deliverables based on: • Government priorities • Available data

ROADMAP ANALYSIS• Determines least-cost future energy system • Provides specific policy recommendations

WORKSHOP• Analysis results discussed with government and stakeholder• Workshop insights incorporated into final report

REPORT• Delivered for government endorsement• Gives full analysis details and recommendations• Additional deliverables can include: • Models developed • Communications materials

Roadmaps support an Island's transition to renewable energy by providing clear pathways for the deployment of renewables that cover the necessary technical, economic and policy elements. The roadmap analysis is usually centred on identifying the least-cost power system for the future, with additional assessments of how this system would be optimally dispatched. This analysis can be supported by an examination of the potential for renewables in end-uses and other sectors such as: heating, cooling and transportation.The roadmap also contains specific policy recommendations to enable its implementation.

NATIONAL ENERGY ROADMAPS FOR ISLANDS

Government

Energy sector stakeholders IRENA

International /regionalpartners

Capacity expansion

Optimal future

generation mix

Dispatching model

Roadmap quantitative insights

Roadmap policy recommendations

Grid integration study• Examines power sector investment options and operational costs• Determines least-cost system to meet long term demand (10 to 20+ years)

• Least-cost power system is dispatched with high time resolution• Identifies operational constraints and cost impacts

• Complementary analysis based on roadmap insights• Very high time resolution • Identifies specific measures that address operational constraints

• Quantitative insights used to develop policy recommendations• Typically address transitioning from a power system where costs are

driven by fuel consumption to a renewables system where costs are driven by upfront investments

• The roadmap included six scenarios to provide insighton the impact of key energy sector decisions including:

• Deploying an undersea electrical cable • The potential for natural gas generation

• Renewables played a key role in all scenarios covering 26 to 40 percent of 2030 demand

• The roadmap included analysis on integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) covering:

• Recommendations on VRE forecasting • Options for VRE to provide grid support services

Roadmap gives detailed insight on how renewables can reduce power sector costs. Roadmap identifies options to support battery storage deployment.

Capacity expansion model shows that renewables can reduce generation costs.

Roadmaps optimized 2025 system grealy expands PV generation.

REmap analysis provides insight on integrating higher shares of PV and wind.Dominican Republic REmap 2030 analsys shows significant renewables capacity expansion is possible.

Roadmap shows that PV curtailment is a potential issueand identifies specific measures to boost RE share.

Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030

Production cost modelling of 2014 and 2030 scenarios

Capacity expansion

Dispatching

Capacity expansion

Dispatching

Capacity expansion

Dispatching

BARBADOS

Least-cost capacity expansion plan 2015-2030

EU JRC performed production cost modelling of 2030 scenarios

CYPRUS

Least-cost system design and modular deployment 2015-2025 for two main islands

Optimized dispatch of 2014 and 2025 least-cost system for two main islands

KIRIBATI

REmap analysis identified the potential for RE in the energy mix by 2030

VRE penetration and transmission bottlenecks estimated based on projected VRE generation and duration curves

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ROADMAP

Renewablesintegrationmeasures

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