National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin6 November 2012

OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate

ConsortiumCurrent drought status and how we got here – Pam

Knox, University of Georgia & Victor Murphy, NWSStreamflows and groundwater – Todd Hamill, SERFCReservoirs’ status and projections – Bailey Crane, US

ACESeasonal outlooks – Pam Knox, UGAStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast

Center, NOAASummary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

7-Day Accumulated Precipitation ending on 11/5/2012

Cumulative Percent of Normal

Past 30 days

Since Jan. 1

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Departure from normal for 24-month accumulated precipitation, Sep 2012

2-year precipitation ending in September

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater Status

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

USACE – ACF Operations

10/12/12

10/13/12

10/14/12

10/15/12

10/16/12

10/17/12

10/18/12

10/19/12

10/20/12

10/21/12

10/22/12

10/23/12

10/24/12

10/25/12

10/26/12

10/27/12

10/28/12

10/29/12

10/30/12

10/31/12

11/01/12

11/02/12

11/03/12

11/04/12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOWVERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW

ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW

AVER

AGE

INFL

OW

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

Lake Lanier

West Point

W.F. George

Woodruff

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

During a neutral phase, the likelihood of a severe freeze is much greater than during either an El Niño or a La Niña event.

Fall Rainfall Climatology

1-3 Month Temperature Outlook

1- and 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Tropical Outlook

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

November 5th – December 5th

2012

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

November 5th 2012 – February 4th 2013

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

37%

42%

21%

68%

23%9%

60%32%

8%

71%20%

9%

76%

19%5%

Summary• Rains during the previous week have been less

than 0.5 inches and drought continues throughout the basin except the Florida panhandle

• 30-day rainfall totals are less than 20% of normal and rainfall to date this year is 50-80% of normal

• The two-year rainfall total is 10 to 30 in below normal in the basin, with the 2-year rainfall total for Sep 2012 being the lowest since 1900

Summary• Inflows to Lake Lanier have dropped sharply and

streamflows and ground water remain near historic lows in southern GA and AL

• Full basin inflows have dropped below 2000 cfs, well below the 5000 cfs needed to meet minimum flows for the Apalachicola

• Composite storage for the basin is in the middle of conservation zone 3 and is expected to continue to track downward for the near future

• Less than 0.5 inch of rainfall is forecast I the basin for the next 5 days

Summary• ENSO Neutral conditions continue, which means that we

can expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in the ACF for each of the months of November and December

• The 3-month outlook calls for relief of drought through most of the basin

• Nonetheless, streamflow forecasts for the next 1 month show the greatest probability of below normal streamflows throughout the basin

• Streamflows for the next 3 months also have the greatest probability of being below normal, except for Lake Lanier, which is has a 42% probability of being normal, but also has a 37% probability of being below normal

ReferencesSpeakers

Pam Knox, UGAVictor Murphy, NWSTodd Hamill, SERFCBailey Crane, USACEJeff Dobur, SERFC

ModeratorKeith Ingram, SECC

Additional informationGeneral drought information

http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank you!

Next briefing20 November 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/acfrb/acfrb-home

Please send comments and suggestions to:ktingram@ufl.edu