National or local National or local matter? matter? D D emographic emographic challenges in Hungary challenges in Hungary Dr. Péter Szaló Dr. Péter Szaló Deputy State Secretary Deputy State Secretary Ministry of Internal Affairs Ministry of Internal Affairs Effects of demographic change on urban structures Effects of demographic change on urban structures EUKN Annual Conference EUKN Annual Conference Budapest, 13-14 September 2010. Budapest, 13-14 September 2010.
Transcript
National or local National or local matter? matter? DDemographicemographicchallenges in Hungarychallenges in Hungary
Dr. Péter SzalóDr. Péter SzalóDeputy State SecretaryDeputy State SecretaryMinistry of Internal AffairsMinistry of Internal Affairs
Effects of demographic change on urban Effects of demographic change on urban structures structures EUKN Annual Conference EUKN Annual Conference Budapest, 13-14 September 2010.Budapest, 13-14 September 2010.
Structure of the Structure of the presentationpresentation
1.1. Demographic trends in HungaryDemographic trends in Hungary
2.2. Prognosis and policy recommendationsPrognosis and policy recommendations
3.3. Priorities and programs of the Hungarian Priorities and programs of the Hungarian
EU PresidencyEU Presidency - - concerning urban concerning urban demographydemography
Demographic trends in Demographic trends in HungaryHungary
• After the WW2 ‘Ratkó-era’ - prohibition of abortion After the WW2 ‘Ratkó-era’ - prohibition of abortion - natural population increase- natural population increase
• In the 1960 HU among the lowest fertility ratesIn the 1960 HU among the lowest fertility rates• In the 1970s a supportive social policy pack and In the 1970s a supportive social policy pack and
the productivity of the Ratkó-children generated the productivity of the Ratkó-children generated natural increasenatural increase
• From the 1980s population declineFrom the 1980s population decline• After 1990 immigration diminshed natural After 1990 immigration diminshed natural
population decrease, but still a negative balancepopulation decrease, but still a negative balance• After 1990 metropolises effected by urban sprawl After 1990 metropolises effected by urban sprawl
and suburbanisation, but the funcional urban areas and suburbanisation, but the funcional urban areas are still stagnating or increasingare still stagnating or increasing
Population change in Population change in Hungary between 1910-Hungary between 1910-20092009
Natural increase Natural increase /decrease 1990-2007, by /decrease 1990-2007, by settlement sizesettlement size
Average age of the mother, Average age of the mother, when she gives birth for the when she gives birth for the first time 2001. and 2008.first time 2001. and 2008.
Proportion of families Proportion of families with 3 or more with 3 or more
children, by children, by settlement size, 2001.settlement size, 2001.
A három vagy több gyermeket nevelő családok aránya a települések nagysága szerint (2001)
• Increasing segregation – Roma populationIncreasing segregation – Roma population
• Provision of public and social services Provision of public and social services
adaptively to the demographic changeadaptively to the demographic change
What can be expected?What can be expected?
Population change Population change 2021/2007, forecast2021/2007, forecast
Change of the proportion Change of the proportion of 60< 2007-2021, of 60< 2007-2021, forecastforecast
Challenges and Challenges and recommendationsrecommendations
• Strengthening integrative and inclusive Strengthening integrative and inclusive policies to ‘replace’ population decline by policies to ‘replace’ population decline by internal immigrationinternal immigration
• Family- and child-friendly social policies to Family- and child-friendly social policies to encourage natural population increaseencourage natural population increase
• Rise of economic productivity, a more Rise of economic productivity, a more flexible employment of womenflexible employment of women
• Integrative spatial development policies Integrative spatial development policies and finance system to avoid territorial and finance system to avoid territorial polarisation, and social marginalisation of polarisation, and social marginalisation of peripheral, disadvantaged status areasperipheral, disadvantaged status areas
Priorities and programs Priorities and programs of the Hungarian of the Hungarian
EU PresidencyEU Presidency
Priorities of the HU Priorities of the HU PRES PRES 1.1. Urban dimension Urban dimension
of combating of combating climate changeclimate change
2.2. Urban aspects of Urban aspects of demographic demographic change/migrationchange/migration
1. Urban dimension of 1. Urban dimension of combating climate combating climate changechangeThe Hungarian Presidency willThe Hungarian Presidency will
issue a issue a practical handbook practical handbook („Climate-friendly cities and („Climate-friendly cities and towns”)towns”)
present in present in UDG meetingUDG meeting in in February and in February and in DG meeting DG meeting in April in April
2. Urban aspects of 2. Urban aspects of demographic demographic change/migrationchange/migrationThe Hungarian The Hungarian PresidencyPresidency will will
prepare a prepare a background reportbackground report on on different policy reactions on different policy reactions on demographic changes by urban and demographic changes by urban and regional governmentsregional governments
organize a organize a one-day high-level one-day high-level seminarseminar to discuss the possibilities and to discuss the possibilities and constraints of urban policies related to constraints of urban policies related to the expected demographic shock the expected demographic shock
About the bAbout the background ackground reportreport
Analysis of the three major trends in Europe:Analysis of the three major trends in Europe: Decrease of fertility ratesDecrease of fertility rates Ageing of the populationAgeing of the population Increase of migrationIncrease of migration
Migration (especially migrants from third Migration (especially migrants from third countries) can only alleviate population loss, not countries) can only alleviate population loss, not fully compensate itfully compensate it
The present welfare systems in most countries The present welfare systems in most countries will face unprecedented fiscal shock and are will face unprecedented fiscal shock and are unsustainableunsustainable
The economic gap between the western and The economic gap between the western and eastern parts of Europe will be deepened by the eastern parts of Europe will be deepened by the demographic gapdemographic gap
About the About the high-level high-level seminar seminar main target:main target: to show differences and to show differences and
variations of urban policies related to variations of urban policies related to the demographic and economic position the demographic and economic position of the cities (or/and regions)of the cities (or/and regions)
potentially potentially small workshop small workshop inin No Novembervember 2010 2010 ((with the participation of with the participation of researchers dealing with regional/urban researchers dealing with regional/urban responses to the demographic responses to the demographic challengeschallenges))
other ideas: other ideas: an an ‘‘Advisory BoardAdvisory Board’’ couldcould be set upbe set up– meetingmeeting could be could be in early 2011, to discuss in early 2011, to discuss
the background report and the planned the background report and the planned programprogram, , exact topics, speakers etc.exact topics, speakers etc. of the of the seminar seminar
Planned timetablePlanned timetable
Background study Meetings
Concept paper (June 18 2010)
Collection of case studies (June 18 - October 15 2010)
Typology of urban policies (November 1 2010)
Workshop for researchers (middle of November 2010)
Finalisation of background study(December 15 2010)
Meeting of ‘Advisory Board’ (January or February 2011)
One-day High Level Seminar(April 2011)
PleasePlease provide us provide us information aboutinformation about
carried out by local or regionalcarried out by local or regional governments/municipalities governments/municipalities related to related to the aspects of demographic change.the aspects of demographic change.
CContact person ontact person at Metropolitan Research at Metropolitan Research Institute:Institute: Mr Mr.. Iván Tosics Iván Tosics (([email protected]@mri.hu+36-1-217-9041/115+36-1-217-9041/115)) - - bbeforeefore the the middle of Octobermiddle of October
Thank you for your Thank you for your attention!attention!
