National - Property Data Reports & Analytics Online · National-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Dec-89 Dec-96...

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.

Housing market update

January 2018

1

National


Number of dwellings9.9 million

Outstanding mortgage debt$1.71 trillion

Household wealth held in housing

52.2%

Total sales p.a.471,917

Gross value of sales p.a.

$298.3 billion

The value of Australian housing sits at $7.5 trillion

2Source: CoreLogic, RBA, ASX, ABS, APRA

Residential Real Estate

$7.5 TrillionAustralian Superannuation$2.5 TrillionAustralian Listed Stocks$1.8 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate$0.948 Trillion


-2.1%

0.9%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

3.1%

-2.9%

1.0%

-0.5%

0.5%

-0.3%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Dec-89 Dec-96 Dec-03 Dec-10 Dec-17

Combined capitals Combined regionals

Capital city dwelling values posted their first quarterly fall since April 2016 while regional values edged higher over the Dec-17 quarter

3Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Dec-17


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dec-82 Dec-89 Dec-96 Dec-03 Dec-10 Dec-17


3.1%

8.9%

2.4%

3.0%

-2.3%

12.3%

-6.5%

4.9%

4.3%

3.8%

4.2%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Only Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra recorded a lower annual value change in 2017 than in 2016

4Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Dec-17


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


5Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -2.1%

over the final quarter of 2017 however, they are

3.1% higher over the past year. Over the last

12 months, house values are 2.1% higher and unit values are up

5.4%.

Sydney

Combinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


6Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values have increased by 0.9% over

the three months to December 2017 in

Melbourne. Over the past year dwelling

values are 8.9% higher with house values

rising 9.1% and unit values 8.4% higher.

Melbourne

Combinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


7Source: CoreLogic


Brisbane home values increased by 0.3%

over the three months to December 2017 and are 2.4% higher over the past year. House

values have increased by 3.1% over the past year while unit values have fallen by -1.2%.

BrisbaneCombinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


8Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in Adelaide increased by 0.3% over the fourth quarter of 2017 and are 3.0% higher over the past year. Over

the year, house values have increased by

3.3% and unit values have increased by

0.5%.

Adelaide

Combinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


9Source: CoreLogic


Perth dwelling values increased by 0.1%

over the three months to December 2017 however, they are

-2.3% lower over the past year. In 2017 house values have fallen by -2.6% and

unit values have fallen by -0.9%.

Perth

Combinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


10Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in Hobart rose 3.1% over

the three months to December 2017 and

are 12.3% higher over the past year. House

values have increased by 12.9% over the

past 12 months and unit values have

increased by 9.1%.

Hobart

Combinedcapitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


11Source: CoreLogic


Darwin dwelling values fell by -2.9%

over the three months to December 2017 and are -6.5% lower over the past year. At the

end of December 2017, dwelling values in Darwin were -21.5%

lower than their historic peak.

DarwinCombined

capitals


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


12Source: CoreLogic


Dwelling values in Canberra increased 1.0% over the final quarter of 2017 and they are 4.9% higherover the past year. House values have increased by 5.8%over the year while unit values are 2.1%

higher.

Canberra

Combinedcapitals


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17 -5.6%

-11.2%

-8.2%

-0.1%

1.5%

3.2%

2.5%

-6.3%

-6.4%

-2.2%

-4.8%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago due to fewer settled sales in the largest capital cities

13Source: CoreLogic

Number of settled sales, combined capitals Year on year change in annual sales


3.0%

4.3%

0.2%

3.1%

-2.5%

9.4%

-1.5%

4.9%

2.6%

3.0%

2.7%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%



The annual rate of rental growth is higher than a year ago in most capital cities however, it has started to slow recently

14Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents Annual change in dwelling rents to Dec-17


3%

4%

5%

6%



3.1%

2.9%

4.3%

4.2%

3.9%

5.0%

5.9%

4.4%

3.3%

4.9%

3.6%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

Gross rental yields are starting to trend higher as rental growth outpaces value growth in many cities

15Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields Gross rental yields as at Dec-17


2931

3536

4755

5890

39

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

HobartMelbourne

CanberraSydney

AdelaideBrisbane

PerthDarwin

Combined caps

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15 Nov 170

20406080

100

Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 Nov 15 Nov 17

Average days on market, Combined capitals

Although homes are still selling rapidly, the days on market figure for Sydney and Melbourne has risen over recent months

16Source: CoreLogic

Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals

-11.4%-7.9%

-5.7%-5.6%-5.4%

-5.2%-4.3%

-3.3%-5.6%

-12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%

DarwinPerth

AdelaideHobart

BrisbaneSydney

MelbourneCanberra

Combined caps


Capital city No of new listings

12 mth change (%)

No of total listings

12 mth change (%)

Sydney 2,001 -7.1% 19,953 26.5%Melbourne 2,656 -9.2% 25,152 4.2%Brisbane 2,158 -1.6% 18,263 -1.7%Adelaide 986 -4.2% 7,615 3.9%Perth 2,021 -5.6% 18,866 -6.4%Hobart 277 -13.4% 1,011 -40.3%Darwin 74 19.4% 1,444 -1.0%Canberra 200 -2.9% 1,675 4.6%Combined capitals 10,373 -6.0% 93,979 3.6%

State No of new listings

12 mth change (%)


12 mth change (%)

NSW 5,531 -8.8% 41,811 4.5%Vic 4,861 -13.7% 43,898 -9.4%Qld 6,020 -0.9% 59,466 -5.9%SA 1,735 -4.5% 17,054 -2.2%WA 3,268 -6.7% 32,237 -6.1%Tas 794 -16.9% 5,457 -26.9%NT 110 25.0% 1,983 -1.2%ACT 205 -3.3% 1,748 5.2%National 22,524 -7.5% 203,654 -5.1%

Capital city No of new listings

12 mth change (%)


12 mth change (%)

Sydney 2,001 -7.1% 19,953 26.5%Melbourne 2,656 -9.2% 25,152 4.2%Brisbane 2,158 -1.6% 18,263 -1.7%Adelaide 986 -4.2% 7,615 3.9%Perth 2,021 -5.6% 18,866 -6.4%Hobart 277 -13.4% 1,011 -40.3%Darwin 74 19.4% 1,444 -1.0%Canberra 200 -2.9% 1,675 4.6%Combined capitals 10,373 -6.0% 93,979 3.6%

Nationally there are fewer properties advertised for sale than a year ago but across individual capital cities the trends vary substantially

17Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 31 December 2017


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Num

ber o

f auc

tions

Clea

ranc

e ra

teAuction clearance rates have eased since early in 2017 while volumes have been relatively high

18Source: CoreLogic

Combined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-1720,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

Jun-82 Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17

1.6%2.3%

1.6%0.6%

0.8%0.6%

0.1%1.7%

1.6%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

NSWVIC

QLDSA

WATASNT

ACTAUST

Housing demand: overseas migration continues to trend much higher

19Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Oct-87 Oct-92 Oct-97 Oct-02 Oct-07 Oct-12 Oct-17

Houses Units

Although dwelling approvals are down from their record high levels they have increased each of the past three months


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average


$0.0$2.0$4.0$6.0$8.0

$10.0$12.0$14.0$16.0$18.0

Oct-97 Oct-01 Oct-05 Oct-09 Oct-13 Oct-17

($b)

Owner occupier FHBOwner occupier non-FHBOwner occupier refinanceInvestors

Demand for finance from first home buyers has grown significantly over recent months, largely due to stamp duty concessions in NSW and Vic


Value of housing finance commitments by borrower type


-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17Owner occupier housing Investment housing

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

45.6%

16.9%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Sep-

08

Sep-

09

Sep-

10

Sep-

11

Sep-

12

Sep-

13

Sep-

14

Sep-

15

Sep-

16

Sep-

17

22

APRA 10% speed limit

Regulatory changes and higher mortgage rates, have impacted on investment demand and interest-only demand has shrunk significantly

Annual change in housing credit

% of mortgages originated on interest only terms

Source: CoreLogic, APRA

Monthly change in housing creditAPRA 30% origination target


-0.05%

0.05%

0.10%

0.30%

0.35%

0.30%

Variable, standard

Variable, discounted

Variable, 3-year fixed

Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occu

pier

Inve

stor

Change in avg mortgage rate since low point, Dec 2017

5.20%

4.50%

4.10%

5.80%

5.10%

4.45%

Variable, standard



Variable, standard



Ow

ner

occu

pier

Inve

stor

Avg mortgage rate by product type, Dec 2017

4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

Dec-57 Dec-62 Dec-67 Dec-72 Dec-77 Dec-82 Dec-87 Dec-92 Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17

Mortgage rates remain around historic lowsfor owner occupiers but have edged higher for investors

23Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Standard variable mortgage rates over time

©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 24

About Us

CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory andproprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.

With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au

CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market conditions at a granulargeographic level. Granular data is often used for portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility andmarket sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and insights for decision making and strategy formationwithin the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.

Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au


Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise brand level across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these new areas of interest.

Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented across houses, units and land. The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as average selling time and vendor discounting rates.

CoreLogic Indices: The suite of CoreLogic Indices range from simple market measurements such asmedian prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic Hedonic index has been specifically designed to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of housing market performance.

Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the most up to date and detailed view of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic Hedonic indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and median prices.

Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high investor concentrations are typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned.

Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing marketactivity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage markettrend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.

Granular Data and Analytics


DisclaimerIn compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland DataBased on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines)2017. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.South Australian DataThis information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. Copyright in that data belongs to the South Australian Government. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.New South Wales DataContains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.Victorian DataThe State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian DataBased on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2017) trading as Landgate.Australian Capital Territory DataThe Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.Tasmanian DataThis product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; andb) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

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