NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, TRENDS
&CHALLENGES
OFSRI LANKA
By
Major General Udaya Perera RWP RSP USP USAWC psc M.Sc(IND) M.Sc(USA) NDU-CT(USA)
INTRODUCTION
CHINA
INDIA
PAKISTANIRAN
MONGOLIA
Sri Lanka
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
AFGHANISTANIRAQ
Maldives Island
BANGLADESH
NEPAL BHUTAN
BATTICALOA
KANDY
VAVUNIYA
COLOMBO
GALLE
JAFFNA
HAMBANTHOTA
ANURADHAPURA
TRINCOMALEE
MULAITHIVUKILINOCHCHI MULLAITTIVU
MANNAR
His Excellency Mahinda Rajapaksa The President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of
Sri Lanka
THEN NOW
THEN NOW
THEN NOW
KILINOCHCHIWater Supply System Destroyed by the LTTE
BATTICALOA
HAMBANTOTA
COLOMBOKANDY
JAFFNA
TRINCOMALEE
KILINOCHCHI
Tamilnadu Factor
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Economy
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC• TGTE• GTF ( Global Tamil Forum)• HQ GP• ICET (Intl. Council of Eelam Tamils)• BTF (British Tamil Forum)• TCF (Tamil Centre France)
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
SlackersAggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
EU
Arab Spring
• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
“Nations have No Permanent Friends or Foes, they only have Permanent
Interests”- Lord Palmerston
(VUCA)
Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous
1. Common Global Threatsand Challenges
2. New Trends, Challenges and Concerns on National Security of Sri Lanka in Post Conflict Context
COMMON GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
Tsunami 2011
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
(NEET)
Not in Education, Employment or Training
Robberies
Unethical Hacking
Sleep During the Day
Man in the Middle Attacks
Child Abuse
Arms Smuggling
Drug Trafficking
Counterfeiting
Active During the NightNEETs
Net Intrusions
PremeditatedCrimes
Anti Social Activities
vV
``V ` `
V ` `
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Organized Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
26. Art Theft27. Cable Piracy28. Video Game Piracy29. Counterfeit Sporting Goods30. Counterfeit Pesticides31. Alcohol Smuggling32. Mobile Entertainment Piracy33. Counterfeit Cosmetics34. Movie Piracy35. Metals and Minerals Smuggling36. Counterfeit Aircraft Parts37. Counterfeit Weapons38. Kidnap and Ransom39. International Adoptions40. Fake Diplomas and Degrees41. Prostitution 42. Counterfeit Watches43. Book Piracy44. Counterfeit Money45. Nuclear Smuggling46. Counterfeit IDs and Passports47. Organ Trafficking48. Counterfeit Purses49. Counterfeit Lighters50. Counterfeit Batteries
1. Drug Trade2. Arms Smuggling 3. Human Traffckling 4. Marijuana 5. Illegal Gambling 6. Cocaine 7. Prescription Drugs 8. Heroin 9. Software Piracy 10. Oil Theft 11. Cigarette Smuggling 12. Counterfeit Foods 13. Counterfeit Auto Parts 14. Counterfeit Toys 15. Counterfeit Electronics16. Illegal Logging 17. Methamphetamine 18. Illegal Fishing 19. Human Smuggling 20. Wildlife Trafficking 21. Ecstasy 22. Music Piracy 23. Counterfeit Shoes 24. Counterfeit Clothing 25. Waste Dumping
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
“All terrorists share one common denominator; they “live” in the future, and
are convinced that they will defeat their enemies and achieve their political goals”
- Bruce Hoffman
THREAT SEVERITYHIGH
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
STRA
TEGI
C E
NVI
RON
MEN
T
AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA
FINANCE
TRADES/VENTURES
ARMS SMUGGLING
SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS
INT PROPAGANDA
ASSASSINATIONSSABOTAGE
DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM
DE-STAB ECONOMY
CHILD REC
TERRORISM
TERR ATTACKS
EXTORTIONS
LOW
EXTORTIONS
DRUG TRAFFICKING
HUMAN SMUGGLING
TAMIL NET
WORLD TAMIL MOV
PSY OPS
DE-STAB ECONOMY
COUNTER STATE MECHANISM
LTTE NETWORK
VIOLATING HR
FORCED RECRUITMENTS
LOCAL
SOUTH
EAST
NORTH
LTTE
STRATEGY
KADALPURA - SHIPPING
TRO
VIOLATING HR
FORCED LABOUR
BTA TCC TGTE BTF
GTF
TCFICET
LTTE
STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING
David C. Rapoport
FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)
FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)
FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)
In “INSURGENCY” - Terrorism is a Method In “TERRORISM” - Terrorism is a Logic
Dr. Tom Marks
MINNERIYA
KILINOCHCHI
MUHAMALAI
MAHAOYA
AMPARA
PULMODDAI
KANDY
NEGAMBO
OMANTHAI
HABARANA
VAVUNIYA
HOROWPOTHANA
COLOMBO
GALLE
JAFFNA
NUWARAELIYA
HAMBANTHOTA
ANURADHAPURA
DAMBULLA
TRINCOMALEE
BATTICALOA
VAKARAI
SAMPOORMAVILARU
KARADIYANARU
WELIOYAMANNAR
ARIPPUSILAWATTURAI
KUMANA
MULAITHIVU
STRENGTHENING ETHNIC ENCLAVES
ILLEGAL TAXATION AND BANKING
SMUGGLING ARMS/AMMO
CONVENTIONAL FORM OF DEFENCES
CONSCRIPTION ILLEGAL COURTS ILLEGAL POLICE ILLEGAL STAMPS & POSTAL
VIRTUAL COUNTER STATE 13,000 Km2
COUNTER STATE MECHANISM
BUILT NUMBER OF AIR STRIPS – LINKING THE WORLD
FORMING OF LAND, NAVAL & AIR WINGS
DEMANDED EELAM TERRITORY – 19,000 Km2 COMMUNICATION NETWORK
ETHNIC CLEANSINGKILINOCHCHI
BATTICALOA
TRINCOMALEE
THREAT SEVERITYHIGH
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
STRA
TEGI
C E
NVI
RON
MEN
T
AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA
FINANCE
TRADES/VENTURES
ARMS SMUGGLING
SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS
INT PROPAGANDA
ASSASSINATIONSSABOTAGE
DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM
DE-STAB ECONOMY
CHILD REC
TERRORISM
TERR ATTACKS
EXTORTIONS
LOW
EXTORTIONS
DRUG TRAFFICKING
HUMAN SMUGGLING
TAMIL NET
WORLD TAMIL MOV
PSY OPS
DE-STAB ECONOMY
COUNTER STATE MECHANISM
LTTE NETWORK
VIOLATING HR
FORCED RECRUITMENTS
LOCAL
SOUTH
EAST
NORTH
LTTE
STRATEGY
•Unorganized •Localized•Non-sponsored
• ISOLATED
KADALPURA - SHIPPING
TRO
VIOLATING HR
FORCED LABOUR
DEFEAT OF
THE LTTE
BTA TCC TGTE BTF
GTF
TCFICET
LTTE
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) 5TH - ?
• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Challenges and Security Threats due
to Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters
NEW TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND CONCERNS ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF SRI LANKA
IN POST CONFLICT CONTEXT
• Ideological
• Constituting Ethnic Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
• Ideological Threat and International Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
Tamilnadu Factor
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• Political Parties
with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology• Extremist
Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC • TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
SlackersAggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
EU
Arab Spring
Economy
• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
TGTE - Transactional Government of Tamil EelamBTF - British Tamil ForumMTF - Malaysian Tamil ForumHQ GP - Headquarter GroupTCC - Tamil Coordinating Committee
GTF - Global Tamil Forum
TGTE
V RUDRAKUMARAN PRIME MINISTER
GTF
DR. S. J. EMMANUEL PRESIDENT
TCC
PERINBANAYAGAM SIVAPARAN
@ NEDIYAWANLEADER
HQ GROUP
SEKARAPILLAI VINAGAMOORTHI @ VINAYAGAM @ ARIVALAGANSENIOR INTELLIGENCE LEADER
PRESENT LTTE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK
BTF
TCFMTF
Tamilnadu Factor
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
Aggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
EU
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Arab Spring
Slackers `Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
Economy
Economic Refugees
• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF
• Ideological Threat and International Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
Tamilnadu Factor
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Economy
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
Slackers Aggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
EU
Arab Spring
Ethnic Enclave
• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF
• Ideological Threat and International Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
Violent
Non Violent
Non State Actors
Tamilnadu Factor
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Economy
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
Slackers Aggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
EU
Arab Spring
Ethnic Enclave
• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF
TREATY OF WESTPHALIA
1648
PRINCIPLE OF TREATY OF WESTPHALIA
• Sovereignty• Equality• Internationally Binding Treaties• Non Intervention of Internal Affairs
• Ideological Threat and International Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
Tamilnadu Factor
Tamil PopNorth & East
1,611,036
Sri Lankan Refugees
• NGO / INGO• TNA (Tamil National Alliance)•Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements
Tamil Population65 Millions
UNHRC
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
SOUTH
NORTH &
EAST
CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
• Anti LTTE Media
• National Political Parties
• Other Minority Communities
• Business
Media
Global Tamil
Population74 Million
SlackersAggressors
• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
TAMIL DIASPORA
• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Internationalization of Local Political Issues
• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
• Pro Govt Political Elements
• Bureaucracy
NAT
ION
AL
• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil
• Neutral Nations
Media
Media
Media
NGO / INGO
Tamil pop 3 Million
South – 46%North – 54%
UN / INGO
Enablers
Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org
EU
Arab Spring
Economy• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police
GoSL
• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF
CONCLUSION
MEANS WAYS (6R) ENDS
Elements of
National Power
Reconstituting the Government authority over LTTE controlled areas through Humanitarian Operation
PEACE Conflict
5RReconstructionResettlementRehabilitationReintegrationReconciliation
Sustainable PEACE
&DEVELOPMENT
Post Conflict
THANK YOU