National Tribal Forum on Air Quality National Tribal Forum on Air Quality June, 2011June, 2011

Climate Change:Climate Change:

Adaptation to ImplementationAdaptation to Implementation

Ed Knight, AICP, Senior PlannerEd Knight, AICP, Senior Planner

Swinomish Indian Tribal CommunitySwinomish Indian Tribal Community

Understanding the challengesof climate change

Changes will happen regardless of action; how best to adapt

Changes not the same everywhere, vary locally and regionally

Changes will continue long term; thinking across generations

Uncertainty in data and projections, change may occur faster than projected

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

IEA 2011: GHG emissions higher than ever, still increasing

Some terms and references:

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations)

Mitigation: Actions to try to reduce the causes of climate change

Adaptation: Actions to respond to the unavoidable effects of climate change, either actual or projected

Adaptive capacity: ability to respond to or accommodate changes

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

What Is Adaptation Planning?

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

A process for evaluating and responding to the potential risks to the community from a range of projected impacts.

Fundamentals of adaptation planning:underlying questions

What are the important elements of the community? (what needs to be protected)

What are existing conditions (not all changes are climate change), and what changes can be observed? (what is happening now)

What community values are important to response? (adaptation goals)

What is the level of awareness in the community of changes occurring? (outreach and communication)

What challenges/constraints exist in the community for response? (implementation)

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Getting Started on Adaptation

Preliminary scoping of issues, disciplines

Assess organizational capacity, needs

Organizational education and buy-in

Define approach, methodology

Identify funding, partners

Community outreach

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Location of Swinomish Indian Reservation

Fidalgo Island

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Swinomish Indian Reservation

SWINOMISHINDIAN

RESERVATION

ISLANDFIDALGO

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Potential sea level rise, WA state

(CIG 2006)

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Sea level rise scenarios, low-lying areas

Sea Level Rise(conservative)

Sea Level Rise(accelerated)

New High Tide(conservative)

New High Tide(accelerated)

Local Response to Climate Change: Swinomish Case Study

MHHW

MLLW

Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation

Chilberg Ave.

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Swinomish Climate Change Initiative

Two-year, $400,000 project

80% federal funding (ANA), 20% Tribal

Univ. of WA Climate Impacts Group (CIG), science advisors

Advisory Partners: Town of LaConner, Skagit County, Shelter Bay Community

Year 1: Impact assessment, outreach, strategy scoping

Year 2: Develop recommendations, action plan

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Preliminary impact assessment matrix

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

TribalElders

Tribal

Leaders

TribalYouth

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Community Engagement

Impact Assessment (Guidance: CIG/King County guidebook)

Impact Analysis: at-risk areas (zones), range/probability of impacts

Vulnerability Assessment: inventory risk zones, sensitivity/adaptive capacity

Risk Analysis: value of at-risk assets; vulnerability X probability = risk

Technical Report (2009)

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Impact Assessment Report Impact Assessment Report

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Review of climate dataReview of climate dataBroad impact analysisBroad impact analysisMany Many disciplines/sectorsdisciplines/sectorsRisk zone mappingRisk zone mappingInventory of at-risk Inventory of at-risk assetsassetsVulnerability Vulnerability assessmentassessmentRisk analysisRisk analysisBasis for Action PlanBasis for Action Plan

Inundation Risk Zones –Sea Level Rise, Tidal Surge

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Vulnerability Assessment of Wildfire Risk Zone,Swinomish Indian Reservation

Structures

Property Type Number AcresApproximate

Value

Residential 1,368 1,995 $ 493,688,000

Non-Residential 9 143 $ 4,806,000

Buildable Lots 183 80 $ 19,918,000

TOTAL 1,560 2,218 $ 518,412,000

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Impacts on tribal traditions

Fishing

Cultural sitesShellfish harvestingNative plants

Beach seining

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Strategy and Response Planning

Goals for adaptation planning

Strategy evaluation & priorities

Community input

Action recommendations

Coordination, funding needs

Implementation issuesAction Plan Recommendations

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Adaptation Strategy Toolbox

Incentives/non-regulatory

Regulatory options and controls

Practical/engineering solutions

Risk prevention planning

Emergency preparedness

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Strategy evaluation criteriaComprehensiveness: Addresses range of impacts and risk

Sustainability: Long-term solution, not band-aid fix

Dynamic approach: Responds to changing facts, circumstances

Fiscal impact/feasibility: Considers financial commitments, term

Community goals: Aligns with desires/needs of the community

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Community Engagement

Events:School Science Fair

Annual Tribal Clam Bake

Earth Day Activities

Communications:

Tribal Newsletter

Community Meetings

Individual Interviews

Institutionalize across disciplines, sectors

Look for “no regrets” opportunities

Political barriers and constraints

Relevancy to real world issues

Partnerships: shared interests/burdens

Funding: options and sources

Toward Implementation:Mainstreaming Adaptation

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Land use planning

Natural resource planning

Transportation planning

Infrastructure planning

Financial planning

Emergency planning

Institutionalizing adaptation

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Coastal zone measures($$$)Dike management authority($$$$$)Regional access preservation($$$$$$$)Wildfire control (Firewise)($)Local emergency planning($)

Implementing Action Plan Priorities

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Evaluating response: how to define and measure success

Ongoing monitoring: tracking science, data, conditions, and progress

Reality check: adaptation goals

Pacing response: incremental steps to deal with inertia, costs

Dealing with the unexpected: adaptive flexibility in planning

Maintaining momentum

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

The Ultimate Beneficiaries: Working for future generations

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

Results of our efforts may not be seen in our lifetime, but it’s up to

us to start.

Swinomish Climate Change Initiative supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Administration for Native Americans.

Washington Department of Ecology (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of Risks and Opportunities, Publication No. 07-01-010, November, 2006.

Snover AK, Whitely Binder LC, Lopez J, Willmott E, Kay J, Howell D, Simmonds J (2007) Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI, Oakland, CA.

IPCC Working Group I (2007). Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York.

Photos: Channel Town Press (Doug Cole), Feb. 2006; Swinomish Indian Tribal Community.

Presentation preparation/contact: Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, LaConner, WA, 360-466-7304, eknight@swinomish.nsn.us. More information and complete copies of reports available on the Swinomish Climate Change web site,

www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/project/reports.html

Credits & References

Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation