National Weather Service National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Houston/Galveston

Lance WoodLance WoodScience and Operations OfficerScience and Operations Officer

Assessing the Impact of SPoRT DatasetsAssessing the Impact of SPoRT Datasets

Utilizing a local WRF Utilizing a local WRF

HGX Local WRF (Winter 2009-2010)HGX Local WRF (Winter 2009-2010)Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsWorkstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsIntel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)RAM: 4 GBRAM: 4 GBOS: RHEL 5.4OS: RHEL 5.4

Model: WRF EMS v.3.0.1 beta2Model: WRF EMS v.3.0.1 beta2Dimension: 129 X 129Dimension: 129 X 129Spacing: 4 KMSpacing: 4 KMLevels: 35 Levels: 35 Length: 30 HRLength: 30 HRTimestep: 24 secondsTimestep: 24 secondsInitialized with: NAM218Initialized with: NAM218

2 runs every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC)2 runs every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC)First run utilizes MODIS SSTFirst run utilizes MODIS SSTSecond run utilizes RTG SST HR Second run utilizes RTG SST HR

Only testing MODIS SSTOnly testing MODIS SST

HGX Local WRF (July-August 2011)HGX Local WRF (July-August 2011)Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsWorkstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsIntel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)RAM: 4 GBRAM: 4 GBOS: RHEL 5.4OS: RHEL 5.4

Model: Model: WRF EMS v.3.1.1.5.1WRF EMS v.3.1.1.5.1Dimension: Dimension: 150150 X 150 (larger)X 150 (larger)Spacing: 4 KMSpacing: 4 KMLevels: 35 Levels: 35 Length: Length: 36 HR (6 hours longer)36 HR (6 hours longer)Timestep: 24 secondsTimestep: 24 secondsInitialized with: NAM218Initialized with: NAM218

2 runs every 2 runs every 12 hours (00,12 UTC) (fewer runs)12 hours (00,12 UTC) (fewer runs)First run utilizes SPoRT Composite SST, First run utilizes SPoRT Composite SST, NASA LISNASA LISSecond run utilizes RTG SST HR, Second run utilizes RTG SST HR, NAM PTILENAM PTILE

Testing SPoRT Composite SST, NASA LISTesting SPoRT Composite SST, NASA LIS

HGX Local WRF (November 2011 - Present)HGX Local WRF (November 2011 - Present)Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsWorkstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 WorkstationsIntel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs)RAM: 4 GBRAM: 4 GBOS: RHEL 5.4OS: RHEL 5.4

Model: WRF EMS v.3.1.1.5.1Model: WRF EMS v.3.1.1.5.1Dimension: Dimension: 98 X 133 (smaller)98 X 133 (smaller)Spacing: Spacing: 3 KM3 KMLevels: Levels: 4040 Length: Length: 24 HR (12 hours shorter)24 HR (12 hours shorter)Timestep: Timestep: 50 seconds50 secondsInitialized with: Initialized with: GFSGFS

4 runs every 6 hours (00, 06,12, 18 UTC) 4 runs every 6 hours (00, 06,12, 18 UTC) HGX/MOB run utilizes HGX/MOB run utilizes SPoRT SST, LIS, GVFSPoRT SST, LIS, GVFSPoRT provides control run (6Z) ! SPoRT provides control run (6Z) !

Testing SST, LIS, GVF and at two sites (HGX, MOB)Testing SST, LIS, GVF and at two sites (HGX, MOB)

WFO Houston/Galveston Forecast AreaMost of Southeast Texas

Winter 2009-2010: Winter 2009-2010:

• Focused on the seabreeze and convection in general. Focused on the seabreeze and convection in general. • Examined surface dew point, winds, temperatures.Examined surface dew point, winds, temperatures.• Examined WRF forecast reflectivity and compared to Examined WRF forecast reflectivity and compared to

the observed reflectivity.the observed reflectivity.

• Focused at different flow regimes (onshore - WAA, Focused at different flow regimes (onshore - WAA, offshore- CAA, near coast surface low development ). offshore- CAA, near coast surface low development ).

• Examined surface temps and winds. Examined surface temps and winds.

Summer July-August 2011: Summer July-August 2011:

• Orientation/timing similar across coastal Orientation/timing similar across coastal zones. zones.

• The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was slightly The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was slightly faster moving the boundary well inland, and faster moving the boundary well inland, and appeared to be more accurate.appeared to be more accurate.

• Can have affect on convection developing well Can have affect on convection developing well inland in the vicinity of the northward inland in the vicinity of the northward advancing boundary. advancing boundary.

Seabreeze

August 12 8 PMAugust 12 8 PM

SPoRT WRFControl WRF

August 12 9 PMAugust 12 9 PM

August 12 10 PMAugust 12 10 PM

• In general, both versions of the WRF models In general, both versions of the WRF models tended to over develop convection on non-tended to over develop convection on non-active days, especially in west/southwest areas active days, especially in west/southwest areas that were often strongly capped.that were often strongly capped.

• Both versions had some timing issues, but in Both versions had some timing issues, but in general, provide useful guidance to forecasters, general, provide useful guidance to forecasters, particularly on the possible degree of coverage. particularly on the possible degree of coverage.

• The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was better The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was better on most active convective days.on most active convective days.

Convection

Some convective examples….Some convective examples….

August 10August 10thth 1 PM 1 PM August 10August 10th th 5 PM 5 PM

SPoRT WRFSPoRT WRFControl WRFControl WRF

August 12August 12thth 5 PM 5 PM

Control WRFControl WRFSPoRT WRFSPoRT WRF

August 12August 12thth 6 PM 6 PM

August 12August 12thth 7 PM 7 PM

Summer 2011 - It was HOT !!Summer 2011 - It was HOT !!

Southern Region Modeling CollaborationSouthern Region Modeling Collaboration(SPoRT, WFO Mobile, WFO Houston/Galveston)(SPoRT, WFO Mobile, WFO Houston/Galveston)

Develop a methodology for an organized, modeling collaboration effort Develop a methodology for an organized, modeling collaboration effort that can expand to other WFOs. that can expand to other WFOs.

Targeting two primary forecast challenges of interest: Targeting two primary forecast challenges of interest: heavyheavy precipitation, precipitation, andand convective initiation convective initiation..

Produce experimental (with SPoRT data) and control forecasts (no Produce experimental (with SPoRT data) and control forecasts (no SPoRT data) that are similar in dynamical core, initialization, and SPoRT data) that are similar in dynamical core, initialization, and physics. Real-time control run provided by SPoRT, as well as hard physics. Real-time control run provided by SPoRT, as well as hard drive for local WRF archive. drive for local WRF archive.

SPoRT assists with model sensitivity comparisons by examining other SPoRT assists with model sensitivity comparisons by examining other physics packages for specific events related to the forecast physics packages for specific events related to the forecast challenges.challenges.

SPoRT provides expertise with MET (Model Evaluation Tools) package SPoRT provides expertise with MET (Model Evaluation Tools) package for quantitative evaluation. for quantitative evaluation.

First case with SR Modeing Collaboration configuration in placeFirst case with SR Modeing Collaboration configuration in place

November 8November 8thth 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case - 11AM 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case - 11AM

SPoRT WRFSPoRT WRF

November 8November 8thth 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 1 PM 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 1 PM

EF1 Tornado occurred at Kingwood, Texas at 137 PMEF1 Tornado occurred at Kingwood, Texas at 137 PM

Developing Developing supercell supercell from SPoRT from SPoRT WRF lining WRF lining up with up with reality! reality!

November 8November 8thth 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 2 PM 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 2 PM

Questions ?Questions ?

Thanks for support from:Thanks for support from:Mark Keehn, Scott Overpeck (WFO HGX)Mark Keehn, Scott Overpeck (WFO HGX)

Brad Zavodsky, Jonathan Case, Andrew Molthan (SPoRT) Brad Zavodsky, Jonathan Case, Andrew Molthan (SPoRT) Jeffrey Medlin (WFO MOB) Jeffrey Medlin (WFO MOB)