National Weather Service To Give Hurricanes Full NamesMay4, 2006 | the ONION: Issue 42•09SILVER SPRING, MD—

The National Weather Service announced Friday that, in response to the increasing number of hurricanes, it is revising its naming system. "The hundreds of hurricanes we expect in the North Atlantic in 2006 will receive both proper and surnames," Max Mayfield of the weather service said. "In fact, tropical storms Alberto Fergus, Beverly Stenwick-Brown, and Chris Stubbs Jr. have already received names under the new system." After all possible first and last names are exhausted, storms will be given titles, beginning with Hurricane Assistant Accounts Manager Alexander Epps, CPA.

NOAA Press Release: Immediate Distribution2006 hurricane season

Surface Temperature Variability

Volcano

Ozone

Sulfate

Solar

There is no known natural forcing mechanism that can explain the surface temperature increases since 1960 (Meehl et al 2004, 2006)

Notice the warm 1940-50 period in the “natural cycle”

Changes in hurricane statistics in the North Atlantic Ocean

Strong apparent relationship between

Atlantic storms and sea-surface

temperature (1910-2005)

Hurricane season SST in tropical ocean basins

• North Atlantic Ocean (ATL)

• East Pacific Ocean (EPAC)

• West Pacific Ocean (WPAC)

• North Indian Ocean (NIO)

• Southwest Pacific (SPAC)

• South Indian Ocean (SIO)

All tropical ocean basins show monotonic increase of SST

Global number of storms and storm days

No statistically significant change in number of storms.

Number of hurricanes in tropical basins

• Largest decreases occur in WPAC and southern hemisphere.

• North Atlantic shows monotonic increase

Change in storm intensity globally

Between 1970-1985 and 1985-2005, the number of category 4 and 5 storms has doubled

Change in intensity occurs in severe

(3+4+5) as well as in categories (4+5)

Increase in intensity is global

Time that a hurricane remains as a

category 3, 4 or 5 has increases by

1/2 day across last three decades

Gulledge et al., Science, submitted

N. Atlantic tropical storm season length has increased 4.8 days/decade for past 100 yearsSeason Length

184518651885190519251945196519852005758595105115125135145155

What do these global changes in hurricane intensity mean for the Gulf and Southeastern states of the US?

o High probability that the last decade characteristics will become the base of a new hurricane distribution

o 1995-2005 will not the “100-year” decade

o Gulf storms such as Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma may become more the norm

Katrina/Rita/Dennis/ Emily/Rita/Wilma

2005

Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma 5 category 4-5 hurricanes in the Gulf

Why should wind speed be important?

Damage by winds goes as:

Cat 3 does 170% more damage than Cat 2

Cat 4 does 270% more damage than Cat 2

Cat 5 does 400% more damage than Cat 2

€

V 3

http://weatherunderground.com/tropical

2005 season

Five Gulf Category 4-5 storms

Consequences of the formation of more storms in the 10-20N region (Cape Verde storms)

During the last decade, an increasing number of storms have developed from atmospheric

waves from Africa

Increasing sea-surface temperature and long-term changes in their patterns in the equatorial North Atlantic mean that more hurricanes form in the 8-20N latitude band

These are important for the Gulf and the SE US for the following reasons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 10 20 30 40 50

Genesis Latitude

Category

Equatorial90%

92%

81%

55%

36%

42%

(Data 1945-2004)

o >85% of all Major hurricanes develop from African waves!!!

o Hurricanes developing close to in the equatorial Atlantic impact the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf and the Gulf states

o > 50% of all major hurricanes develop south of 20N

-4

-2

0

2

4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Storms by Month

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

SST Anomaly (C)

Subtropical

Equatorial

SST

Where and how much the SST increases explains shift in characteristics

SST variations explain 69% of the variance in equatorial (easterly wave) developments.

9-y Mean

Consequences of more Gulf of Mexico storms

Impacts of more Gulf storms

Demographic changes towards south and the coast have increased vulnerability of larger percentage of population

Energy industry increasingly vulnerable

Coastal bathymetry conducive to large storm surge

More storm landfalling and moving into southern states

EXAMPLES OF KATRINA’S WATER DAMAGE

Hurricane

Wilma

Visible

Infrared

Charley 2004

Charley 2004

Charley 2004

Nov. 17, 1970: Tropical cyclone crossed coast of Bangladesh. High tide and 4-5 m (12-15 ft) storm surge at high tide drowned 300,000 people, 280,000 cattle and destroyed 90,000 boats

But not all tropical cyclones are benign But not all tropical cyclones are benign

Consequences of more Gulf of Mexico land-falling hurricanes for the SE, mid-west and Eastern USA

Impacts of Gulf land-falling hurricanes

o Gulf coastal storm surges

o Wind damage in coastal regions

o Large-scale and intensity precipitation over land often causing severe flooding

o Consequences for agriculture (crop damage, water pollution from overflow of feed lot lagoons)

o Tornadoes that may be remote to landfalling location

Six-Hour Accumulated Rainfall: Hurricane

Katrina

Katrina

The possibility and consequences of a major land-falling hurricane in coastal Georgia

Legend:Cat 5 -Cat 4 -Cat 3 -Cat 2 -Cat 1 -

1995-2005 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes

The Gulf

Estimated Impacted Area for Cats 4 through 1

44% of U.S. landfallinghurricanes hit FL

Land-falling hurricanes on Georgia coast extremely rare

o No hurricane for over 100 years but a series of devastating landfalling hurricanes created storm surges drowning 1000’s of residents.

o Hurricanes were not of high category but extensive shoaling continental shelf allows extensive storm surges.

o Georgia coast is considered by FEMA as especially vulnerable to storm surges

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

100 mph 120 mph

140 mph160 mph

100 mph

140 mph

What can be done?

o Plan for at least a continuation of the active period of 1995-2005

o In risk analysis, take into account high probability of considerable greater activity in coming decades

o Consider long-term spending (including relocation) to mitigate problems in vulnerable areas. Better to spend $10B/year and lose no lives than $200B every year or so with many deaths cleaning up after future Katrinas.

o Better seasonal forecasts and learn how to use them (there is hope!)

Tropical Storms

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

15 10.38.8 13.327.4 26.23 2.9

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size =225Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMet Office Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

20.4 11.67.8 12.516.6 21.22.5 2.5

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

ECMWF Met Office

Meteo-France

Obs 1st May-mid Nov.

W-Pac E-Pac ATL

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

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40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

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140°W 120°W

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100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

18 11.68.8 12.520.1 21.22.4 2.5

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size =120,climate size =165Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast

Significance level is 90%JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

Multimodel

WNP ENP ATL0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Number of tropical storms

20051993-2004

Courtesy Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

Tropical StormsSeasonal Forecasts: Meteo-France

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

14.5 9.610.7 12.612.3 18.31.4 1.7

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/04/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

MJJAS

FORECAST CLIMATE

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

21 11.84.5 14.116.1 20.71.5 1.7

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/05/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

JJASO

FORECAST CLIMATE

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

20.4 11.67.8 12.516.6 21.22.5 2.5

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

17.2 10.55.9 9.515.5 182.7 3

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/07/2005

Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%

ASOND

FORECAST CLIMATE

Forecast starting 1st April: MJJAS

Forecast starting 1st May: JJASO

Forecast starting 1st June: JASON Forecast starting 1st July:

ASOND

Courtesy Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)