National’s view on evidence-based assessment of the Sendai Indicators‒ Norway (Mia Ebeltoft,...

www.financenorway.com

Evidence-based assessment of the Sendai

Indicators Oct 26-28 EC-OECD-PLACARD

By Mia Ebeltoft, Finance Norway

Association for the norwegian banks and

insurance companies

www.financenorway.com 2

Suggested global indicators

Target A Target B Target C Target D

A1- Number of deaths and

missing due to hazardous

events per 100,000 B1- Number of affected people per 100,000

C1- Direct economic loss due to hazardous events in relation to global gross domestic

product D1- Damage to critical infrastructure due to hazardous

events

(A-2 + A-3) (sum of B-2 to B-6) (sum of C-2 to C-7) (sum of D-2 to D-5)

A-2

Nu

mb

er

of

de

ath

s

A-3

Nu

mb

er

of

mis

sin

g

B-2

- In

jure

d o

r ill

B-3

a –

Num

be

r o

f e

va

cu

ate

d

B-3

b-

Num

be

r o

f re

loca

ted

B-4

- N

um

be

r o

f p

eo

ple

wh

ose

ho

use

s

we

re d

am

ag

ed

B-5

- N

um

be

r o

f p

eo

ple

wh

ose

ho

use

s

we

re d

estr

oye

d

B-6

- N

um

be

r o

f p

eo

ple

wh

o r

ece

ive

d fo

od

relie

f a

id C-2

-D

ire

ct a

gri

cu

ltu

ral lo

ss

C-

3 -

Dir

ect e

co

no

mic

lo

ss d

ue

to

ind

ustr

ial fa

cilitie

s d

am

ag

ed

or

de

str

oye

d

C-4

- D

ire

ct e

co

no

mic

lo

ss d

ue

to

co

mm

erc

ial

facilitie

s d

am

ag

ed

or

de

str

oye

d

C-5

- D

ire

ct e

co

no

mic

lo

ss d

ue

to

ho

use

s

da

ma

ge

d

C-6

-Dir

ect e

co

no

mic

lo

ss d

ue

to

ho

use

s

de

str

oye

d

C-7

- D

ire

ct e

co

no

mic

lo

ss d

ue

to

da

ma

ge

to c

ritica

l in

fra

str

uctu

re c

au

se

d b

y

ha

za

rdo

us e

ve

nts

D-2

-Num

be

r o

f h

ea

lth

fa

cilitie

s d

estr

oye

d

or

da

ma

ge

d

D-3

-Num

be

r o

f e

du

ca

tio

na

l fa

cilitie

s

de

str

oye

d o

r d

am

ag

ed

D-4

-Num

be

r o

f tr

an

sp

ort

atio

n

infr

astr

uctu

res d

estr

oye

d o

r d

am

ag

ed

D-5

- N

um

be

r o

f tim

e b

asic

se

rvic

es h

ave

be

en

dis

rup

ted

Mapping

Public Authority

Norwegian Institute of

Public Health, Cause

of Death Registry,

International

Classifikaction of

Diseases (ICD)

Norwegian

Directorat of

Health,

Norwegian

Patient Registry

Norwegian

National Fund

for Natural

Damage

Assistance

Academic & Research

Institutes

Private Sector Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway Finance Norway

Data

Recording

[National, Regional,

Municipality, Asset]

National

National,

recordning from

specialised

services only

Asset Asset National Asset Asset Asset Asset

Asset,

recordning from

primary health

care only

Asset,

recordning from

municipal level

only

Format

[database, shp,...] Oracle/SQL SQL SAS/SQL SAS/SQL Unknown SAS/SQL SAS/SQL SAS/SQL SAS/SQL SAS/SQL SAS/SQL

B4 and B5 C3, C4 C5 and C6

Indicators and

Insurance

loss data


Insurance loss data

Target B: affected people and

Target C: Direct economic loss

• B-4- Number of people whose houses were damaged

• B-5- Number of people whose houses were destroyed

• C- 3 -Direct economic loss due to industrial facilities damaged or destroyed

• C-4- Direct economic loss due to commercial facilities damaged or destroyed

• C-5- Direct economic loss due to houses damaged and C-5 b loss of administrative building

• C-6- Direct economic loss due to houses destroyed

• Around 99 % of the (228) municipalities by private property insurance

• Finance Norway (insurance association) collects loss data on a municipality level

• Indirect insurance loss data due to Natcat hazards / events or urban flooding: – business interruption, motor vehicle, electricity disruption, personal accidents

3


Questions from JRC

Question no 1 • “How National loss databases can support the implementation of Sendai Indicators at

Global and National scale?”

• Observations and answer:

– National database will give a totally different and better holistic risk picture

• Today neither the local, regional or national Government have the total risk picture, the cause of the disaster or the costs the disasters

• Will be needed to fulfill the “build back better” - goal

– A national database must also be “multi-beneficial” on DRR and CC adaptation

• Not only used as an «reporting-upwards» -system (for the national coordinator/ the Civil Protection)

Important: loss data on a municipal / city level will NOT help the local Government fulfill Sendai.

They need to know WHERE exactly the losses are (the address).

4


Questions nr 2 • “How targeted collaboration between Scientific Experts and Public Authorities can

improve the implementation of loss databases, according to the Sendai Framework?”

• Observations:

The research projects: – are extremely many and complex, but not coordinated or possible to get an overview of – so, where are the

synergies?

– are almost impossible to track or find, or to understand or use for local (and partly national) decision makers

• They don´t give the decision makers – particularly on local level – the tools or useful «instruments» they need for preventive measures / fulfilling the Sendai goals.

– are too much based on, or defined by the researchers themselves, not the practitioners

– need to bring the decision makers on all levels into the projects (not only the signature/name or funding)

5


Question 3

• Which are the benefits from an effective national implementation of the Sendai

Indicators in terms of loss accounting, risk modelling, loss compensation and

disaster forensic?

• Observations/answer – Holistic picture; understanding the «real» picture and trends and how it hits the economical budgets

– Will create different political and technical decisions

– Will (hopefully) make the public stakeholdes see the need of cross – border engage the other i

stakeholders – cooperation

6


Question no 4

7

• What is the roadmap for the National implementation of Sendai Indicators?

– National agencies established a national platform with multi – agencies /stakeholders from the

authorities

– Finance Norway (insurance) will probably be included

• Already set up three projects – where loss data is one

– National White Paper (road map) before end of 2016

Otherwise:

– Follows Japan suggestion (less indicators)


Holistic risk picture: You need

collaboration cross sectors

The value of

collaboration

Governments Private

Sector

Local

Authorities Public Agencies

Insurance Industry

• Risk management

• Assessment

• Quantify & Calculate

• Risk transfer

products

• Collects local disaster

loss data

• Compensate, don’t mitigate

www.financenorway.com Kilde: Geneva

Association


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Dam

ag

es -

mill N

OK

Total "water-related" damages incl urban flooding vs land /river-flooding

Total water damage

Land flooding

Other Natural Perils


Urban flooding: 70 % of “natcat” (disaster)

insurance loss

11

Average insurance pay outs last 10

years

River

floodin

g

Urban

flooding

/ storm

water

Landslide Stormsurge

Urban

flooding

/ sewer

back up 2/3 of Europeans live in cities


“National’s view on evidence-based assessment”

• PPP by Finance Norway

– Finance Norway started in 2010 to invite municipalities and relevant national agencies and ministries into

(smaller) discussion forum and workshops (“PPP local and national platform”)

– Based on this cross-over dialogue, connections and workshops, Finance Norway initiated, or participated from 2011 and following years - 4 projects directly related to transfer of insurance loss data:

1. Private - public - project (PPP): local insurance loss data to make the cities understand risk zones and take better, more resilient decision and investments + “build back better”

2. Geovisualization tool – based on PP 1: a ‘data display’ of all natcat compensations on municipality level (Climres)

3. Collected critical risk management information for agencies (river flooding) through insurance loss adjusters – changed flood models and better prioritizing of local flood maps

4. PPP-platform; 8- years national research program together with national agencies, municipalities, researchers and business - http://www.klima2050.no/

12

http://www.klima2050.no/


How local insurance lossdata can fulfill

Sendai goals

13

Private – Public Project:

Using insurance loss data to

strengthen municipalities’ efforts

to prevent climate-related natural

hazards

Collaboration project between Finance Norway

Western Norway Research Institute

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Number 1

PPP


What helped to kick off the project

“In order to improve adaptation, and to be able to prioritize, and to

take the right, optimal decisions, you need to understand what is

at risk and where are the “risk zones” (vulnerable areas). “

The report NOU2010:10 recommended to (and by that challenges

the insurance industry):

”Establish a nastional database for public use and research using

aggregate, anonymised data on climate-related damage from the insurance

companies and the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool”».

National

Green

Paper


First «public-private-project» in Europe

in its kind

• Initiated by Finance Norway in close dialogue with

municipalities and national agencies (flood agency

and civil protection agency)

• Financed by:

– Finance Norway/ insurance industry and

– Norwegian Government (Ministry of Climate and Environment)

• Ten different “pilot” municipalities/cities

• Reference group: five different agencies and

meteorological inst.

• Project period: Sept 2013 to Feb 2015


Main goals

• Can insurance loss data help climate - resilient and

disaster risk reduction work in the municipalities?

• Will these loss data strengthen municipalities’

knowledge base for preventing for natcat and urban

flooding-related natural hazards?

• Will the insurance loss data help secure and preserve

the insurance willingness to (still) offer covered?

– Avoid repetitive damages and diminish the increasing

number of damages

– Avoid “unaffordable” insurance premium or withdrawal of

insurance coverage


• Generally – Increase collaboration within the municipalities (planning og technical)

– Got new insights into risks previously unknown and vulnerable areas (hot spots)

– Improved understanding of how climate change affects society (did not show on the budget!)

• Land-use planning – Improved knowledge base to

• select areas with the lowest possible risk of natural hazards

• prioritize security measures

• Construction and maintenance of water and sanitation – Improved knowledge base for

• prioritizing management, maintenance, rehabilitation, and reinvestment

• collaboration between municipal water/sanitation and planning units

• Preparedness – Improved knowledge base for risk and vulnerability analyses (ROS-analyses required by law)

17

Main conclusion

This PP-project kicked of many other research projects using local insurance loss data

We are now looking into combining insurance loss data (vulnerable areas) and local weather

(meteorological institute)


Oslo capital – the city’s own loss data


Oslo – after transfer of insurance loss data from

private, business and municipality buildings


www.climres.no/ Number 2

PPP


Insurance loss data on municipal level:

Geovisualization tools showing insurance compensation due to various natcat (river flooding, strom,

storm surge, landslide) and storm water and sewage backup (urban flooding) from 1980 - 2014

http://setebos.svt.ntnu.no/climres/


Collected critical risk management information for agencies (river flooding)

through insurance loss adjusters – changed flood models and better

prioritizing of local flood maps

Extra table with parameters related to the flood. To be able to link this information to the rest of

the survey, the following information was requested: surveyor name, survey no., insurance

company, location and municipality no.

Flood parameters included in registration form used by insurance surveyors

Number 3

PPP

Building no. ID or type of building

Water level cm +/- relative to ground floor level

Basement? yes/no

Erosion, under-mining of

building? yes/no

Mass deposition outside

of the building? yes/no - thickness

Damage due to floating objects etc. hitting

the building? yes/no

Supplementary information

Date post:	07-Feb-2017
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National’s view on evidence-based assessment of the Sendai Indicators‒ Norway (Mia Ebeltoft,...

Government & Nonprofit