Estimating, reporting and accounting
Natural Disturbances
Zoltan Somogyi
National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre
Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary
JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014
Natural disturbances (2/CMP.7, Annex para 1a)
„non-anthropogenic events or non- anthropogenic circumstances …
that cause significant emissions in forests and are beyond the control of, and not
materially influenced by, a Party” …
2/CMP.7 Annex, paras 33-36:
• A Party may exclude from the accounting emissions from natural disturbances
• provided that a number of conditions are met
Issues to answer
• Why exclude?
• Under what conditions?
• How to exclude?
• How to develop the background level and margin?
(+ examples)
Why exclude?
NIR EU, 2013: „the inter-annual variability in removals is significantly affected by:
- forest fires (e.g. Portugal in 1990, 2003 and 2005; Italy in 2007) … Spain reports areas burnt ranging between 20 – 250 kha annually;
- windstorms (e.g. France in 1999 and 2010, and Denmark in 2000, Sweden in 2005)”
No one knows future
The Dendroctonus ponderosae story
1999
0
2
4
6
8
10
Infe
cte
d a
rea
in
BC
(Ca
na
da
, m
illi
on
ha
)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2004
2006
2007 Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009
1930
The Dendroctonus ponderosae story
Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009
The Dendroctonus ponderosae story
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
n (
Mt
C /
yr)
Without beetle With beetle With beetle + salvage cutting
Kurz et al. 2008, Nature
The Dendroctonus ponderosae story ca
rbo
n b
alan
ce (
MtC
/ y
r)
~ total annual emissions
of Hungary
Emissions may be excluded (provided that certain conditions are met):
• either annually or at the end of the second commitment period
• separately for AR and FM
• in any single year
• when total emissions from all events, including legacy emissions, exceed a background level plus a margin
To exclude emissions, report in NIR of 2015:
• intention to apply the provision to FM, AR or both
• country-specific information on
– a FM background level (BL) of emissions that have been included in FMRL
– an AR BL
– how BL has been estimated (separately for FM and AR)
– how to avoid the expectation of net credits or net debits during the CP, including through the use of a margin, where a margin is needed (separately for FM and AR)
To exclude emissions, demonstrate:
• all affected lands are identified, including their georeferenced location
• by year and types of disturbances
• how annual emissions and the subsequent removals are estimated
• emissions associated with salvage logging were not excluded from accounting
• no land-use change has occurred on lands for which the provisions are applied
• methods and criteria for identifying any future land-use changes during the CP
• occurrences were beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, the Party in the CP
• practicable efforts to prevent, manage or control the NDs that led to the application of the provisions
• efforts taken to rehabilitate land where practicable
To exclude emissions, demonstrate:
Exclusion of removals on affected land
• assess and report them,
• regardless of whether forest is re-established by rehabilitation or from the natural re-growth
• ensure that the removals are not captured by another assessment system
• check/correct consistency with FMRL
• exclude from accounting removals that are additional to those included in the FMRL
Information on efforts taken to rehabilitate the land
• area rehabilitated
• area not rehabilitated, and why (e.g. due to lava)
• timeframe of rehabilitation
• efforts taken or planned
• expected results (e.g., species, growth, C balance)
How to identify & report on land
• apply Reporting Method 1 or 2
• identify the type of ND
• identify the year in which the ND occurred
• check if „normal” forest inventory density provides sufficiently accurate information
If „normal” forest inventory density is not enough:
„to make the estimated uncertainty comparable with the uncertainty in the overall estimation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 forest-related emissions”:
• intensify sampling
• identify the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions, and assess the need for compl-ementary ancillary and/or ground truth data
How to estimate emissions & removals
• use IPCC 2006
• use a Tier/method that is consistent with, and/or complementary to, the method and Tier level applied to each of the pools
• use Tier 2/3 especially if FM or AR (=L-FL) are a key category
How to estimate emissions & removals
• all pools (including DOM, but excluding HWP) must be estimated (except if they can be demonstrated not to be a source)
• separately estimate emissions due to salvage logging in the year when they occur
• these should include emissions from wood removed from the area, dead wood discarded and damage to soil, and non-CO2 emissions
How to estimate emissions & removals
• estimate and report areas and emissions in the year when ND occurs
• continue monitoring and reporting emissions and removals in subsequent years
stratification, activity data, emissions/removal factors and other parameters must reflect the spatial and temporal dynamics
• estimate legacy emissions in the year when they occur
How to estimate emissions & removals
• show that emissions accounted for under the ND provision are unambiguously attributable to NDs and do not contain or double count emissions from regular management activities, including salvage logging
• if land use change occurs, report all emissions under D
• consistency with FMRL and BL is key
Jocke Berglund, 2005
Rules of exclusion:
of all annual ND emissions …
BL Es („background group”) are excluded due to FMRL Es above the BL may be excluded in years with Es above BL + Margin („outliers”)
To estimate BLs and Ms (separately for FM and AR):
STEP 1
• define in 2015
• the types of NDs
• that the Party wishes to exclude from accounting
(can include sub-divisions and rare events)
STEP 2a Establish a consistent and initially complete time series for the calibration period (= period with historical data)
for each disturbance type, and their sum
kt
STEP 2a
• fill in gaps in time series (do not use interpolation)
• if no direct time series is available, proxies and other methods may be used (e.g., AR time series from FM time series)
• exclude emissions from salvage logging from the time series
Because the area can change for both FM …
… and AR …
STEP 2b … report:
• total annual emissions
• total annual area by category
• area specific annual emissions
STEP 2b
FM/AR, t
STEP 3 Develop the BL
• separately for FM and AR
• select and apply default or alternative method
• if necessary:
– use area-specific values to develop area-specific background level = bl
– multiply bl by the actual area under FM/AR during the time period accounted for (year or the average area during the commitment period)
STEP 3 Projected mean area for the CP: FM
STEP 3 Projected mean area for the CP: AR
STEP 3-a iterative process of the default method
(using area-specific data)
1. calculate mean for all years with data in the background group
2. calculate standard deviation (STD)
3. exclude emissions > mean + 2*STD
4. repeat 1-3 until there are no more outliers
5. bl = lastly calculated mean
6. BL = bl * projected area
STEP 4 Margin: default method
Margin = 2*lastly calculated STD
(practically ensures zero credit/debit)
frequency
emissions
STEP 3-b BL: alternative method
frequency
STEP 3-b for BL to be appropriate …
BL
emissions
frequency
STEP 3-b .. the sum of all emissions below BL …
BL
emissions
frequency
STEP 3-b … must equal to the sum of all emissions
between BL and BL+Margin
BL Margin
outlier emissions
emissions
BL Margin
frequency
emissions
STEP 3-b BL can be smaller than the „average”, the
minimum historical (projected) emission, or 0 …
outlier emissions
BL Margin
frequency
emissions
STEP 4 Margin, alternative method:
must be set accordingly, 0 or 0 (respectively)
outlier emissions
For all methods: Background group: emissions <= BL + margin
STEP 5 Ensure there is no expectation of
credits/debits by checking:
• data sources, assumptions, estimation methodologies
• items (1) – (4) in Box 2.3.6
– no disregarded trend
– BL is the mean of emissions in the background group
– BL is tested for all years in the calibration period
– only emissions > BL are excluded,
– and only when they are > BL + Margin
FINAL STEPS
• Ensure consistency with FMRL by applying Technical Correction if necessary (relative to the FMRL reported earlier)
• Report transparently all methodological elements
Photo: Ipolyerdő Zrt.
although emissions from NDs have been low historically
for many countries, the question is not whether
NDs of large emissions will occur or not, rather, when
