Navajo Reservoir OperationsCRFS Technical CommitteeNovember 16, 2010Fall Technical Meeting

San Juan RiverCritical Habitat

Gaging Stations

5985

5990

5995

6000

6005

6010

6015

6020

6025

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6085

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

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4,000

6,000

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10,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Dai

ly W

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leva

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ft)

Dai

ly In

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w, R

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Ch

ang

e-in

-Sto

rag

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fs)

Water Year 2010

NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS

Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation

Chasing the Target Baseflow

• Base releases remained at 500 cfs until June 24th

• Tributary inflow + Navajo Releases keep the river within Target Base Flow range

• Increased release to 850 cfs on June 24th, up to 1100 cfs on July 16th

• Release returned to 500 cfs on October 19th, and should remain unchanged until next spring

0

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10/1/2009 12/1/2009 2/1/2010 4/1/2010 6/1/2010 8/1/2010

Mea

n D

aily

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Str

eam

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s (C

FS)

USGS Mean Daily Streamflow San Juan River Stations

SJ Archuleta SJ Farmington SJ Shiprock SJ Four Corners SJ Bluff Animas @ Farmington 7-Day Moving Mean

Navajo Current Conditions(as of 11/9/2010)

Elevation = 6063.2 (102% of Average)

Storage = 1,388,376 af (82% Full)

Inflow = 250 cfs

Release = 500 cfs

NIIP = Not Diverting

San Juan-Chama Diversion = Not Diverting

5985

5990

5995

6000

6005

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6015

6020

6025

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6045

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6065

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6085

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

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2,000

Oct Nov

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ly W

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ft)

Dai

ly In

flo

w, R

elea

se &

Ch

ang

e-in

-Sto

rag

e (c

fs)

Water Year 2011

NAVAJO RESERVOIR OPERATIONS

Change-in-Storage (cfs) Total Release (cfs) Inflow (cfs) River Release (cfs) WS Elevation

Update SNOTEL!!!

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

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35.0

1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug

Sno

w W

ate

r Eq

uiv

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nt

(In

che

s)Navajo Reservoir SNOTEL SWE from 2001-2011

2001

2002

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2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Average

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1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug

Sno

w W

ate

r Eq

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(In

che

s)

Animas @ Durango SNOTEL SWE from 2001-2011

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Average

2011 Forecasted April-July Inflow& Spring Peak Release

Most Probable (50% Ex.) - 685,000 af (91% of Avg)Peak Release = 172,000 af (2 weeks@ 5000 cfs)

Minimum Probable (90% Ex.) - 233,170 af (31% of Avg)Peak Release = 118,000 af (1 week@5000 cfs – if perturbation yr)

Maximum Probable (10% Ex.) - 1,171,470 af (155% Avg)Peak Release = 926,000 af (Full Hydrograph+ – 73 days @ 5000 cfs, 33 days @ 4000 cfs)

Peak Release centered over Animas at Farmington peakBase release of 500 cfs for remainder of water year (~362K af)

Put Hydrographs and downstream flow projection data here from 2011

Navajo Release Scenarios

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Flo

ws (C

FS

)San Juan Flows based on Most Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River &

Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

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Flo

ws (C

FS

) San Juan Flows based on Minimum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

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Flo

ws (C

FS

)

San Juan Flows based on Maximum Probable Forecasts for Navajo and the Animas River & Corresponding Navajo Operations based on that forecast

San Juan at Farmington San Juan at Shiprock San Juan at Four Corners San Juan at Bluf f San Juan at Archuleta 7DMM

WY2011 Estimated Inflows into Lake Powell from the San Juan

(based on SJ @ Bluff modeled flows)

Most Probable (50% Ex.) - 1,022,000 acre-feet(73% of Average WY1981-2010)

Minimum Probable (90% Ex.) - 520,000 acre-feet(37% of Average WY1981-2010)

Maximum Probable (10% Ex.) - 2,845,654 acre-feet(202% of Average WY1981-2010)

Western Colorado Area Office Contacts:

Pat Page970-385-6560, ppage@usbr.gov

Ryan Christianson970-385-6590, rchristianson@usbr.gov