Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Harro van Lente

Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute ofSustainable Development, Utrecht University

ICIS, Maastricht University

The Netherlands

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Background

• Study of the WRR Scientific Council for Governmental Policy– reflecting on how foresight

relates to policy practices

• www.toekomstverkennen.nl– lists 240 Dutch foresight

projects (2000-2010)

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Introduction

• The phenomenon– FTA is future-oriented – like any other practice!

• general sociological lesson: human action is geared towards the future (Weber, Mead, Schutz)

• individual, group, society

– Future oriented technology assessments happen everywhere, continuously and informally

• firms, researchers, policy circles, society at large

– …as if FTA is embedded in a ‘sea’ of expectations

• The question– How to characterize this condition? – Implication of this condition for FTA practices?

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Method

• Literature review• sociology of expectations

» science and technology:future oriented par excellence

» progress made in the last 20 years

• strategic management and technology roadmapping

• Participating in WRR project (2008-2010)• Observations from FTA in NanoNed

• Dutch research consortium 2005-2010• universities, research institute, firms• more than 200 PhD projects• about 10 projects on Technology Assessment (CTA)• intended interactions of CTA and other projects

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

study of expectations

• Definition: expectations are circulating representations of the future

• statements, images,, graphs, terms• within firms, research groups, policy, society• collective expectations• heterogeneous ingredients

• Starting point: the circulation of expectations has consequences

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Types and levels of expectations

• Expectations are about:• materials• firms strategies• consumer behaviour• policy shifts

• Expectations are collective in different ways:• individual, groups, organisations, society• more or less shared

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Sociology of expectations

• Expectations have consequences– performativity: statements that do something

– statements can be descriptive, normative or performative– extreme case: self fulfilling prophecies (Merton)– performativity depends on social position (‘uncertainty trough’)

– what expectations do:– legitimate decisions (such as funding projects)– guide search activities (like heuristics)– coordinate (positioning one’s work in the envisioned overall task

– overall dynamics: from promise to requirement– technology does not start with problems but with promises– which can be taken up on in agendas (groups, firms, policy)– and lead to requirements – and protection to continue– with a next round.

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

study of expectations

“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true. […] Such are the perversities of social logic”.

Merton 1948

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

study of expectations

"If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences“

William Isaac Thomas (1863 - 1947)

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Sociology of expectations

• Expectations have consequences– performativity: statements that do something

– statements can be descriptive, normative or performative– extreme case: self fulfilling prophecies (Merton)– performativity depends on social position (‘uncertainty trough’)

– what expectations do:– legitimate decisions (such as funding projects)– guide search activities (like heuristics)– coordinate (positioning one’s work in the envisioned overall task

– overall dynamics: from promise to requirement– technology does not start with problems but with promises– which can be taken up on in agendas (groups, firms, policy)– and lead to requirements – and protection to continue– with a next round.

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Explicit steering with expectations

• Encompassing visions or ‘Leitbilder’– electronic superhighway, hydrogen economy

• Niches– protected space to foster a promise

• Yet, inherent ambivalence: promises should not become too specific

– example: CUTE project in UK employing hydrogen (Eames e.a. 2006):

“.[Projecleaders are] living in a fool’s paradise to think that this is safe. When we were in grammar school laboratories, we were taught to treat hydrogen with respect.”

“ What I resent is the pressure from Europe to force one country to adopt this very dangerous technology

Financial Times, 27 September 2003, cited in Eames ea. 2006).

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Formal and informal FTA

• FTA exercise can now be defined as a formal articulation of possible futures

... embedded in or inundated by...

• an enormous set of informal articulations of futures

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Example: technology roadmapping

• Since the 1980s• Motorola• Lockheed-Martin

• Three levels:• markets• products• technology

• A tool to produce of expectations• Intended for internal learning of firms

• making informal expectations formal

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Two modes of dealing with expectations

‘realist’• expectations are right or

wrong• decide whether they are

justified • expectations as

psychological driver• asymmetry analyst and

actors (e.g. hype)

‘constructivist’• expectations are

accepted or abandoned• decide whether they are

robust• as sociological /

rhetorical force• symmetry analyst and

actors

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Dealing with hype: second order imitation

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Interaction formal and informal FTA

• Strategic positioning before• Formal FTA tapping the repertoire

of informal FTA• Formal FTA adding to the

repertoire of informal FTA• Positioning after adds to the

dynamics• self fulfilling • self denying

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Interaction formal and informal FTA

• Limits to formal FTA • circulating images in informal FTA• concepts of informal FTA• causal chains available in informal FTA

• Enhancement of FTA• due to recognition of images and terms• due to confirmation of assumptions

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Conclusion

• FTA is enabled and constrained by ongoing expectations dynamics

• FTA is inherently strategic, due the performativity of expectations

• FTA is inherently vulnerable, due to the relationship between formal and informal

• loose relationship: when a formal FTA is surprising it is vulnerable since it is disconnected from the repertoires of the future that legitimize, steer and coordinate

• tight relationship: when a formal FTA is not surprising (repeating the repertoires) it is vulnerable because not seen as adding much value

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

Outlook

• How to navigate FTA in the sea of expectations?

• at least: be aware of the performativity of expectations (reflexive)

• at least: be aware of the political aims (FTA is not just instrumental)

• SO, needed: clear sight and a compass

Navigating FTA in a sea of expectations

References

• Van Asselt (ed.) (2010), Uit zicht: toekomstverkennen met beleid, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.

• Van Lente, H. and S. Bakker (2010), ‘Competing expectations: the case of hydrogen storage technologies’, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. Vol 22 (6), 693-709.

• Bakker, S, H. van Lente and M. Meeus (2011), ‘Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 78(1), 152-162.

• Van Lente, H. (2010) ‘Supporting and evaluating emerging technologies: a review of approaches’, Int. J. Technology, Policy and Management, Vol. 10, No. 1/2, pp.104-115.