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Navigating the Challenges
Nancy Saracino
Vice President, General Counsel & Chief Administrative Officer
California Independent System Operator
Independent Energy Producers Assoc.29th Annual MeetingSeptember 22-24, 2010
The winds of change driving our sector
State RPS and renewable energy standard
AB 32 & once through cooling regulations
Local environmental restrictions
Federal policies
Legislative policy shifts
Changes in executive leadership
Viability and financing of new renewable development
Technological changes
Uncertainty about rate impacts and consequences
Slide 3
Slide 5
Represents over a year in focused coordination and planning
Presents our only feasible opportunityto advance the state’s ambitious environmental and energy goals
Achieves collaboration, transparency and accountability across all representative areas of focus
Collaborating with state agencies, we developed a plan for California’s clean energy future.
Slide 6
Initial phase included the development of the vision for California’s Clean Energy Future
The planning phase consisted of developing the plan towards achieving the vision
The final (and current) phase includes managing and evaluating progress against goals and activities
The collaboration among the energy agencies and ISO will guide the next decade of coordinated strategic planning for the state.
Metrics and activity management
(under development)
Slide 7
Maps demand, supply, transmission, distribution and operations, and other areas like cap and trade policy
Provides a comprehensive planning tool to generate greater consistency and transparency
The roadmap provides a 10-year plan of activities while identifying key decision points, inter-dependencies and milestones.
Joint Agencies – Once Through Cooling (OTC) PlanS5
ISO – Renewable integration operational studiesS7
D1,2,12,13S4,5,9,12
T9
D1,2,12,13S6,7,9,12,14T2-5,7,9 P6
CEC – 2011 Strategic Transmission Investment Plan (STIP)T1S8,14
T2-4,6,8,15
CEC – 2011 Integrated Energy Policy ReportD2 D1,S5,7,
T1
CEC – Demand Forecast and Incremental EE ScenariosD1
D4,5,6,9,14,15
The ISO has been active in pursuing changes needed to manage the electric grid.
Studies to inform new market products and tools
Policy development to account for changes
Accelerated action and waivers to accommodate immediate needs
Slide 8
ISO study of renewable integration at 20% RPS
Slide 9
• Published August 31, 2010
• First detailed operational study of its kind to consider both wind and solar resources at high RPS
• Available at www.caiso.com
The combination of wind and solar affects the morning and evening ramps: July 25, 2012 at 20% RPS
Slide 10
Study did not find significant constraints in the upward direction but did find shortages of downward ramp capability: 5-minute load-following capability, May 28, 2012
Slide 11-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
12 AM 6 AM 12 PM 6 PM
5-m
in R
am
p C
ap
ab
ilit
y (
MW
)
Ramp Up Capability
Ramp Down Capability
Key findings at 20% RPS
Load-following up and down ramp rate and duration requirements will increase substantially in some hours, putting stress on the real-time economic dispatch
However, there is no clear evidence that a new load-following reserve is needed to support real-time dispatch by the 20% RPS
More regulation up and down will be needed, in aggregate up to 30-40% more than is currently procured
Slide 12
Key findings at 20% RPS (cont.)
Self-scheduling is a significant barrier to operational flexibility and must be addressed to successfully integrate 20% renewable energy
Concurrent with the need for additional operational flexibility, energy market revenues could be declining more rapidly than previously anticipated due to the effect of wind and solar displacing gas across the day
Overgeneration conditions are likely to occur more frequently and be of greater magnitude by 2012; the ISO and stakeholders need to explore options to address such conditions
Slide 13