CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HIGHWAY SYSTEM: IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION APPROACHESNCHRP PROJECT 20-83 (05)
AN ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE
Mr. Michael Flood, AICP, Senior Planner, Parsons BrinckerhoffDr. Michael D. Meyer, PE, Frederick R. Dickerson Professor, School of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyMr. Jake Keller, M.ASCE, National Technical Director of Civil Engineering,
Parsons Brinckerhoff
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TOPICS
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TOPICS
What about climate change to engineers need to be concerned about?
NCHRP project summary Research findings Expected climate change Recommended approach Benefit/Costs and risk Implementation challenges The engineering challenge
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CONCERNS
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WHAT DO WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT?
Generally, a warming planet and changing precipitation patterns
An increase in frequency and intensity of storms
An increase in atmospheric temperature• Sea level rise and storm surge
• Flooding, drainage
• Structural integrity
WHAT DO WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT?
Climate Change will always be a future undefined risk, but traditional approaches are often based on past events. This contrast is the crux of the issue facing the engineering community.
NCHRP PROJECT SUMMARY
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NCHRP PROJECT SUMMARY
NAS project considering climate adaptation needs and solutions for the U.S. highway system
Project objectives…• Synthesize likely climate change impacts to the U.S.
highway system through 2050• Recommend approaches, strategies, and tools DOTs can
use to avoid these impacts• Prepare guidance documents outlining how to adapt U.S.
highways to climate change• Identify future research needs and activities
2.5 year project (2010-2012)
RESEARCH FINDINGS
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SOME OF THE RESEARCH FINDINGS
Majority of U.S. highway agencies are not focused on threats of climate change
Lack of detailed relevant climate data is an impediment to action
National leadership will be critical to consistent actions across DOTs
Most agencies begin their adaptation work with qualitative risk analyses of existing assets
Few examples yet of adaptation deliberately being included in project design or planning
Selective adaptation seems more common
Sea level rise, storm surge, and increased intense precipitation events could be the biggest climate threats to the highway system
EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGES 2010-2050 (IMAGES FROM REPORT) Country divided into regions
Expectations for annual increases in temperature across the country, with more pronounced changes in Alaska and the upper mid-west
Expectations for changing summer precipitation patterns with a wetter Alaska and northeast and drier conditions elsewhere in the county
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AN APPROACH
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A RECOMMENDED APPROACH – DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK)
BENEFIT/COST ASSESSMENT METHODS
Includes probability methodology• Statistics and subjective probability
Completed in draft, will require review by panel prior to issuance
CHALLENGES
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CHALLENGES TO IMPLEMENTATION – POLITICAL AND SCIENTIFIC
“I think we're seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists that are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change” Texas Governor Rick Perry
“Adaptation requires best available actionable science, not simply best available science. There is a huge body of scientific literature about climate science. However, users require some translation and a reasonable process to move from science outputs to adaptation planning and implementation” USACEClimate Change Adaptation Plan and Report 2011
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY Determine reasonable methods to address risks
in lieu of actionable science
Incorporate climate risk at the project level and share/debate approaches and outcomes
Develop flexible design options on projects with a range of unknowns
Design without precluding future risk mitigation measures: Adaptive Design
THE RESEARCH TEAM
Parsons Brinckerhoff Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Stratus, Inc. Resource Systems Group, Inc. Applied Research Associates, Inc. M2 Resource Consulting, Inc.
Jake KellerNational Technical Director of Civil Engineering
Norfolk, [email protected]
QUESTIONS & COMMENTS
PARSONSBRINCKERHOFF
