Near Earth ObjectsOverview of the NEO Observation Program

Lindley JohnsonPlanetary Science Division

NASA HQ21 June 2012

US component to International Spaceguard Survey effortHas provided 99% of new detections of NEOs since

1998

Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May, 1998– Averaged ~$4M/year Research funding 2002-2010– 400% plus-up to $20M in President’s 2012 budget submittal

Scientific Objective: Discover 90% of NEOs larger than 1 kilometer in size within 10 years (1998 – 2008)

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction)“…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020].

NEO Observation Program

2

NASA’s NEO Search Program(Current Systems)

LINEAR

MIT/LL Soccoro, NM

Catalina SkySurvey

UofAZArizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC)• IAU sanctioned• Int’l observation database• Initial orbit determinationwww.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html NEO Program Office @ JPL• Program

coordination • Precision orbit

determination • Automated

SENTRY http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Pan-STARRS

Uof HIHaleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPLSun-synch LEO

3

End ofOperationsFeb 2011,AnalysisOf Data

Continues

Known Near Earth Asteriod Population

Start of NASA NEO

Program

Known Near Earth Asteroid Population

5

Spaceguard Survey Catalog ProgramCurrent Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process

Survey,Detect,

& Report

Correlate, DetermineRough Orbit

PossibleNew PHO?

RoutineProcessing

PublishResults

Yes

PotentialImpact?

ResolveResult

Differences

PublishResults

No

Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations

Impact Still

Possible?

Observations andUpdate Orbit

Publish/UpdateResults

No

No

Yes

Yes

Iterate

Survey Systems

Minor Planet Center

JPL NEO Office*

* In parallel with NEODyS

RadarAlerts to NASA HQ

• MPC - PHO of interest

• MPC -possible close approach

• JPL - reports potential for impact

• JPL -publishes probability of impact

6

NASA’s NEO Search Program(Current Systems)

LINEAR

MIT/LL Soccoro, NM

Catalina SkySurvey

UofAZArizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC)• IAU sanctioned• Int’l observation database• Initial orbit determinationwww.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html NEO Program Office @ JPL• Program

coordination • Precision orbit

determination • Automated

SENTRY http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Pan-STARRS

Uof HIHaleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPLSun-synch LEO

7

End ofOperationsFeb 2011,AnalysisOf Data

ContinuesNot Shown – “Follow-up” Projects:

• Several Professional Observatories provide critical data to secure orbits

• Numerous Amateur Astronomers worldwide provide high-precision observations to fill critical gaps

Radar Studies

8

Observations on the limited accessible objects– 20 to 30 NEOs/year from Goldstone and Arecibo– Required for timely precision orbit determination– Characterization with sufficient signal strength

• Shape, spin-state, surface structure

• Satellites (an then derived mass)

Shape, Size of6489 Golevka

Study of Shape, Size, Motion and Mass of 66391 (1999 KW4)

2005 YU55 Approach to Earth Nov. 8, 2011

C-type asteroidDiameter ~400 metersEarth & Moon close approach

Extensive radar, visual and infrared observations were obtained.

Radar Rotation Study of 2005 YU55

Arecibo Observes Newly Discovered 2012 LZ

2012 LZ1 was discovered 10 June 2012 by Siding Spring Observatory in Australia. Classified as a potentially hazardous by the Minor Planet Center because its orbit brings it close to Earth (within 20 lunar distances). Arecibo observed this asteroid on 19 June 2012 to measure its orbit more precisely, and to determine its size, rotation rate and shape.

2012 LZ1 is twice as large as originally estimated based on its brightness, large enough to have serious global consequences if it were to hit the Earth. However, the new orbit solution based on radar measurements shows that this object does not have any chance of hitting the Earth for at least the next 750 years.

2012 LZ1 was found to be about 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) in its largest dimension. It must be quite dark, reflecting only 2-4% of the light that hits it. The image shows that it is fairly spherical and rotates in about 10-15 hours. Image was taken when the asteroid was 10 million kilometers (6 million miles) away, and the resolution is 7.5 m (25 feet).

FY2012 Budget Allocation

Future Survey Capabilities

Space SurveillanceTelescope

14

• DARPA funded project• Designed and built by MIT/LL

• Same division as LINEAR• Located Atom Peak, WSMR, NM • 3.6 meter primary mirror• First Light was Feb 2011• Started 1 year of checkout• Eventual operations by AFSPC• First of 3 to 4 worldwide sites• Serendipitous detection of NEOs in

background mode to space surveillance

Near Term Impact Warning

Proposed ATLAS telescope design

Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System –ATLAS*: A project to patrol the entire night sky every night in search of incoming asteroids

A geographically dispersed network (> 6 sites) of small coupled telescopes observing “shallow but wide” to provide more complete sky coverage for warning of near-term impact threats

*Courtesy University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

6.4-m effective diameter 10 sq deg field of viewugrizy optical filters18,000 square degrees ++2x15s exposures + 2 more within 60 minutesSurvey entire visible sky every 3-4 days in 2 filters for 10 years

16Initial Operations 2019?

A National Science Foundation Project

Various NEO Survey Telescope Concepts

• A NEO survey telescope will discover highly accessible NEO targets suitable for human exploration in a timely manner.– Optimized for detection of objects in Earth-like orbits within two

years of launch– Launch ready in 4 to 5 years with low risk

• The survey will include follow-up of all detected objects, plus characterization (size, rotation rate) of selected objects.

Study Description Survey Type

Picture Cost

NEOCam/JPL•Sun-Earth L1 orbit•Mid-IR•50cm aperture

Sweet Spot< $500 M (excluding launch)

NEOStar/BATC•Trailing Venus orbit•Mid-IR•50cm aperture

Opposition~ $500 M (excluding launch)

NEST – L2/APL•Sun-Earth L2 orbit•Visible•90cm aperture

Sweet Spot< $500 M (excluding launch)

NEST - Venus/APL

•Trailing Venus orbit•Mid-IR•90cm aperture

Opposition~ $500 M (excluding launch)

Space-based “Sentinel” Concept

Kepler “Sentinel”

≈

19

X

Spitzer

NASA has signed a Space Act Agreement to support B612 Project Sentinel