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Necessary Policies
Per Pinstrup-Andersen
Celebrating 100 Years of Dr.
Norman Borlaug
Obregon, Mexico, 25-28 March 2014
12
Future yield increases will come from
1/3 Breeding
1/3 Agronomy
1/3 Policy
Future yield increases will come from
1/3 Breeding
1/3 Agronomy
1/3 Policy
Hans Braun’s Assessment
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
Reasonable incomes for farmers
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
Reasonable incomes for farmers
Reasonable prices for consumers
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
Reasonable incomes for farmers
Reasonable prices for consumers
Meeting Non-food Demands
What do we want from food and agricultural systems?
Food Security and good nutrition
Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
Reasonable incomes for farmers
Reasonable prices for consumers
Meeting Non-food Demands
Support of general economic growth
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
Adaptation to climate change
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
Adaptation to climate change
Reduced poverty and malnutrition
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
Adaptation to climate change
Reduced poverty and malnutrition
Appropriate response to diet transition
What do we want from agricultural research?
More food and non-food per unit of land,
water, labor and capital
Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
Adaptation to climate change
Reduced poverty and malnutrition
Appropriate response to diet transition
Stability in production and prices
Annual Average Population Growth Rate, %
Billions of Middle Class Asians and Percent of the
Global Middle Class 2009-2030
Year Billions Percent
2009 0.5 28
2020 1.7 54
2030 3.2 66
Source: Kharas 2010
The Asian Middle Class’ Purchasing Power (Billions 2005 PPP Dollars) and Percent of the World’s Middle
Class’ Total Purchasing Power
Year Billions Percent
2009 5.0 23
2020 14.8 42
2030 32.6 59
Source: Kharas 2010
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Feeder roads
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Feeder roads
Appropriate institutions
Farmer associations
Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Feeder roads
Appropriate institutions
Farmer associations
Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)
Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Feeder roads
Appropriate institutions
Farmer associations
Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)
Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
Water management infrastructure
Suggested Policy Priority 1
Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
Feeder roads
Appropriate institutions
Farmer associations
Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)
Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
Water management infrastructure
Primary education, health care and improved sanitation
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
Public goods investments, including research
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
Public goods investments, including research
Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
Public goods investments, including research
Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
Establish competitive funds for technology development
Suggested Policy Priority 2
Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
Public goods investments, including research
Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
Establish competitive funds for technology development
Assure incentives for private sector innovation
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Regulation of Land Grabbing
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Regulation of Land Grabbing
Clarity on water and land tenure
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Regulation of Land Grabbing
Clarity on water and land tenure
Reduce food waste and losses
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Regulation of Land Grabbing
Clarity on water and land tenure
Reduce food waste and losses
Move towards full costing
Suggested Policy Priority 3
Remove international trade distortions (both
import and export restrictions)
Regulation of Land Grabbing
Clarity on water and land tenure
Reduce food waste and losses
Move towards full costing
Pursue multiple-win solutions
The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy
Keeping food prices low
The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy
Keeping food prices low
Price stabilization
Price Volatility
Source: Minot, N. (2013). How Volatile Are African Food Prices?
IFPRI Research Brief 19, IFPRI, Washington, DC.
World Market Selected African Countries
The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy
Keeping food prices low
Price stabilization
Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy
Keeping food prices low
Price stabilization
Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
Protecting food in an eco-economy
The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy
Keeping food prices low
Price stabilization
Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
Protecting food in an eco-economy
Fiscal costs, supply response and surpluses
Thai Rice Mountains
Source: AFP Photo/Pornchai Kittiwongsakul
India – Grain Stock 2005/06 – 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011 2012
80
Millioner
Tons
65
54
25
15
Surplus Grain in India 2012
Maize Stocks in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke
Rotting Maize in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke
Up Close: Maize in Zambia 2012
Photo courtesy William J. Burke
Annual Maize Production in Zambia, 2005/08 and 2010/2011
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005-08 2010-11
2.8
Million
Tons
1.4
Source: Jayne et al., 2011
Rhetoric
Declarations
Plans
Targets
Action
http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe