Need quantitative data and analysis:
1) What is Earth’s population & what are the trends?
2) What forces cause the population to rise?
3) What is Earth’s carrying capacity?
4) What are the social, economic and environmental consequences of high population & rapid population growth?
POPULATION GROWTH
WORLD POPULATION
2/3/17 7,369,450,000
2/1/17 7,369,025,000
1/18/17 7,366,049,000
2000 6,096,300,000 1960 3,027,000,000
US Census
WORLD POPULATION
2/3/17 7,369,450,000
2/1/17 7,369,025,000
1/18/17 7,366,049,000
2000 6,096,300,000 1960 3,027,000,000
US Census
+1,488,000/wk
Forces Driving Population Upward * Food availability
* High Fertility Rate * Death rate decline: Improved public health, sanitation, medical advance, declining infant mortality. * Difference between birth & death rate Birth rates and death rates/1000 are both declining, but the far higher birth rate forces population to rise. 2016 World Birth Rate = 18.5/1000 Death Rate = 7.8/1000
=> Difference = 1.07 %
0
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4
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10
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16
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
WORLD POPULATION
Popu
lation
in B
illion
s
Year AD
Doomsday
Exponential
US Census Bureau est.
LogisticOvershoot
& Collapse
2017
EARTH’S POPULATION WILL Level off ? Where & When ? at 12 B? 40 B? Undergo Overshoot & Collapse? due to delays in response Clearly, the outcome will depend on the growth rate, which is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. No current political dialogue
-10
0
10
20
30
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Deca
dal
Grow
th R
ate
%
YEAR
US Census est.
Doomsday
Logistic
Exponential
Overshoot & Collapse
+_
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
World R
ate/
1000
YEAR
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Growth Rate
Data Source: UN "medium variant"
Benarde 1989
2008 2015
Concept:
Replacement level: 2 kids/female = 1 for 1 replacement rate*
Actual fertility ~ 2.1 for replacement
Fertility Rate
SOCIETAL IMPACT OF LOW FERTILITY
?
SOCIETAL IMPACT OF LOW FERTILITY Population Decline High median age: Elderly burden Barrel-shaped Age-Sex pyramid
Economic stress?
SOCIETAL IMPACT OF HIGH FERTILITY
?
SOCIETAL IMPACT OF HIGH FERTILITY Rapid Population Growth High IMR Low life expectancy Disease/ lack of sanitation Low contraceptive use Low literacy Low per capita GNP Low median age Broad Age-Sex pyramid
Political Instability
Country Rate Inc.% Median Age Fertility IMR POP, M Uganda: 3.2 15.3 6.5 77 31 Niger 3.5 16.0 7.2 111 13 Mali 3.0 16.1 6.5 129 12 Guinea-Bissau 3.0 16.1 7.1 113 2 Burkina Faso 2.9 17.0 6.0 104 15 Dem Rep Congo 3.2 16.2 6.7 114 67 Malawi 3.0 16.1 7.1 113 14 Chad 2.9 16.9 6.2 119 10 Congo 2.1 18.9 4.5 70 4 Liberia 4.5 16.3 6.8 133 4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China 0.6 33.7 1.7 23 1330 India 1.6 24.4 2.8 55 1148 USA 0.9 36.3 2.1 6 305 Indonesia 1.2 27.4 2.2 27 238 Brazil 1.2 27.7 2.3 24 196 Pakistan 2.0 21.2 3.5 68 173 Bangladesh 1.8 22.9 2.8 53 154 Nigeria 2.2 17.8 5.3 110 146 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=32008
M
ost-p
opul
ous C
ount
ries
|
Hig
h F
ertil
ity
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
UN 2004Gr
owth
Rat
e, %
Fertility, #
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
UN 2004Av
erag
e Li
fe E
xpec
tanc
y, y
r
Fertility, #
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
UN 2004
Lite
racy
, %
Fertility, %
0
1 104
2 104
3 104
4 104
5 104
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
UN 2002, 2004
Per
Capi
ta G
DP,
$
Fertility, #
YoungestCountries Rate Inc.% Median Age Literacy% $ Per Cap POP (millions)Botswana: 3.4 14.2 59 880 1.2Kenya 4.1 14.3 59 230 24.1Liberia 3.2 15.8 20 310 2.5Malawi 3.3 15.9 25 170 8.7Syria 3.8 16.0 55 1970 12.1Nigeria 2.9 16.1 30 520 115.6Zimbabwe 3.6 16.1 77 540 10.1Algeria 3.2 16.3 80 2600 24.9Ghana 3.1 16.4 45 380 14.6Libya 3.5 16.7 50 5410 4.0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Societal Consequences, from Individual to Global scale
Lower quality of life
Deteriorating quality of Human Interactions- Crowding / STRESS
Changing distribution of population Progressive Urbanization Progressive Industrialization India China Nigeria Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia
Faster Pace- Governments can’t respond quickly enough- inertia
Increasing disparity between the “Haves” and the “Have Nots” Most Industrial growth occurs in developed world
Most population growth occurs in developing world The rich get richer & the poor get children
Increased likelihood of Overshoot & Collapse
Craig et al 2001
1 China 1,343,239,936 1,361,513,000 (0.4%; 1.6)2 India 1,205,073,664 1,251,700,000 (1.2%; 2.5)3 United States 313,847,456 321,363,000 (0.8%; 2.0)4 Indonesia 248,645,008 255,994,000 (0.9%; 2.2)5 Brazil 199,321,408 204,260,000 (0.8%; 1.8)6 Pakistan 190,291,136 199,086,000 (1.5%; 2.8)7 Nigeria 170,123,740 181,562,000 (2.5%; 5.2)8 Bangladesh 161,083,808 168,958,000 (1.6%; 2.4)9 Russia 142,520,000 142,424,000 (0.0%; 1.6)10 Japan 127,368,088 126,920,000 (-0.2%; 1.4)
Most Populous Countries
CIA World Factbook
2012 2015
Concepts:
Replacement level: 2 kids/female = 1 for 1 replacement rate But population will still grow- “momentum” in system Momentum is reduced if increase mother’s age at childbirth => Prolong female education!
Age sex pyramid = Graph of population levels vs. age Developed nations: columnar or barrel shape
Increased life expectancy in USA => Social Security Problem
Developing nations: pyramid shape. Population will greatly increase even @ 1:1 replacement level
http://www.census.gov
USA 2015 321 M 0.8% 2.0
An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury, according to projections released today. Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 % minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children. In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million). World population is projected to reach 7 billion in 2012.
US Census Bureau News Release 8/14/08
An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury, according to projections released today. Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 % minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children. In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million). World population is projected to reach 8 billion in 2025.
US Census Bureau News Release 8/14/08
http://www.census.gov
USA 2015 321 M 0.8% 2.0
Nigeria 2015 181 M 2.5% 5.2
http://www.census.gov
USA 2015 321 M 0.8% 2.0
Japan 2015 127 M -0.2% 1.4
http://www.census.gov
China 2015 1,361M 0.4% 1.6 Male Female
India 2015 1,252M 1.2% 2.5 Male Female
USA 2015 321M 0.8% 2.0 Male Female
Indonesia 2015 256M 0.9% 2.2 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Nigeria 2008 146 M 2.0% Male Female
Brazil 2015 204M 0.8% 1.8 Male Female
Pakistan 2015 199M 1.5% 2.8 Male Female
Bangladesh 2015 169M 1.6% 2.4 Male Female
Nigeria 2015 182M 2.5% 5.2 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Russia 2015 142M -0.0% 1.6 Male Female
Japan 2015 127M -0.2% 1.4 Male Female
Mexico 2015 122M 1.2% 2.3 Male Female
Philippines 2015 110M 1.8% 3.0 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Iraq 2015 33M 2.2% 3.3 Male Female
Iran 2015 82M 1.2% 1.8 Male Female
Saudi Arabia 2015 28M 1.5% 2.1 Male Female
Venezuela 2015 29M 1.4% 2.3 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Germany 2015 81M - 0.2% 1.4 Male Female
Australia 2015 23M 1.1% 1.8 Male Female
UK 2015 64M 0.5% 1.9 Male Female
Canada 2015 35M 0.8% 1.6 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Somalia 2015 11M 1.8% 6.0 Male Female
Sudan 2015 36M 1.7% 3.8 Male Female
Congo 2015 79M 2.5% 4.7 Male Female
South Sudan 2015 12M 4.0% 5.3 Male Female
http://www.census.gov
Central African Rep. 2015 5M 2.1% 4.4 Male Female
Gaza Strip 2015 2M 2.8% 4.1 Male Female
Afghanistan 2015 33M 2.3% 5.3 Male Female
Yemen 2015 27M 2.5% 3.9 Male Female
0
0.5
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1.5
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2.5
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Growth Rate of World Population
Gro
wth
Rat
e, %
YEAR
data source: US Census Bureau
2016
Concepts:
Replacement level: 2 kids/female = 1 for 1 replacement rate But population can still grow- “momentum” in system Momentum is reduced if inc. mother’s age @ birth; e.g., prolong female education
Age sex pyramid = Graph of pop levels vs. age & gender Developed nations: columnar or barrel shape Developing nations: pyramid. Pop will greatly inc. even @ 1:1 replacement level!
Increased life expectancy in USA => Social Security Problem
Demographic transition Hi B&D rates => Hi B, Low D rate => Low B & D rates Low growth rate => Hi growth rate => Low growth rate Transition can take >100 y England 1800-1900AD (London 1750, 3/4 children died before age 5) Mexico in transition now but has little time!
What is possible?
John Stuart Mill (1857) “A stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the Art of Living and much more likelihood of its being improved.” Meadows et al. (1972) “A society based on equality and justice is far more likely to evolve in a state of global equilibrium than it is in the state of (rapid) growth….”
