World Climate:Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement
Agenda1. Introduction and schedule
2. Assign Roles
3. The World Climate
Negotiation
4. Debrief and your feedback
Climate Change: Carbon
Cycle
3
Climate Change: Greenhouse
Gases
4
Emissions exceed IPCC Worst-case Scenario:
CO
2E
mis
sio
ns f
rom
Fo
ssil
Fu
els
(GtC
/year)
Actual CO2 Emissions vs. IPCC Assumptions
US Global Change Research Program: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf
2008-2009 data: Manning et al. (2010), Nature Geoscience. Vol. 3; June, 376-377. 2010:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
6
7
8
9
IPCC Emissions
Scenarios
IPCC
Worst
Case
(A1FI)
Actual Emissions
2010:
9.14
GtC
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Atmospheric CO2
2011: 392 ppm
40% above
pre-industrial
Ramifications of
Increased Atmospheric CO2 Rising atmospheric temperatures
Rising sea levels (more H2O, warm H2O expands
Shoreline destabilization
More extreme weather patterns/fluctuations
Feedback loops – i.e sea ice, permafrost
Ocean acidification and current changes
Biological changes – ranges, timing
7
What can we do?? Mitigation: efforts to reduce and/or prevent Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Adaptation: Adjustments that society/environment
makes to limit negative effects of climate change
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
COP: Conference of the Parties
8
What is the UNFCCC/COP?
9
UNFCCC Conference of the Parties – the decision making body of the Convention
COP Conference – Annual, formal meeting of the Convention to assess progress and make decisions
What is a World Climate
Simulation?
https:/www.climateinteractive.org/world-climate-project/
10
Purpose of World Climate Simulation
To improve understanding of important climate dynamics
To help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science
Process Introduce yourselves to members of your delegation
Read Briefing Memo for your nation or bloc
15 minutes—Speed Research! Look up participating countries, involvement in climate change mitigation, role in global policy
Are these terms familiar? 2 Degrees
350.org/350 ppm
14
0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C
1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F0 °FIP
CC
AR
4
1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F0 °F
0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C
3.5 °C
6.3 ° F
5.3 °C
9.5 °F7.4 °C
13.3 °F
MIT Joint Program
on Global Change
(Sokolov et al. 2009,
Journal of Climate)
Projected mean temp
increase by 2100
under BAU
10.8 °F
6.0 °C
Welcome Delegates
UN Climate Summit
Our Global Task
Manage the Unavoidable
and
Avoid the Unmanageable
Consider this:
Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize GHG levels by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels.
Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation fund to aid less developed nations.
Process: Part II
Begin to formulate your negotiating strategy What are your vital interests? What is politically
feasible in your nation/bloc?
What do you need from the other nations/blocs? What can you offer them?
20
Task 1: Emissions Each delegation will set its own fossil fuel emissions
targets. You will set:
– In what year will GHG emissions in your bloc stop
growing (if any)?
– In what year (if desired), will your GHG emissions
begin to fall?
– If emissions will fall, at what rate (% per year)?
REDD policies:
Deforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 1 continues BAU deforestation path, 0
gradually eliminates deforestation over coming decades.
Afforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 0 = no new area set aside for afforestation;
1 = maximum feasible afforestation area.
Task 2: Burden Sharing
We are creating the “UN Global Fund for Mitigation and Adaptation” for
Disaster relief
Food and water
Immigration and refugees
Mitigation — Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals
Total cost is $100 Billion per year (ramping up to that level by 2020)
How much will you contribute?
How much should others contribute?
Terms?
Proposal Form
Region: ____________
CO2 Emissions growth stop year: _______
CO2 Emissions decline start year: _______
Fractional rate of decline (%/year): ______
REDD+ (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation and land Degradation)_______
India, Other Developed, Other Developing only:(1 = no reduction from BAU; 0 = max reduction)
Afforestation (net new forest area) _______ All nations/regions: (0 = no new afforestation area; 1 = maximum feasible)
Your region’s contribution to fund for mitigation and adaptation ($B/year): _______
After you prepare your proposal
2 minute plenary presentation by
representative of each delegation
describing their emissions proposal,
their Fund commitment and why.
Designate a representative to give
your Bloc’s speech.
Proposal Summary
Emissions
Growth
Stop Year
Emissions
Reduction
Start Year
Annual
Emissions
Reduction(%/year)
REDD
(1 = BAU;
0 = zero
emissions)
New
Afforestation
Area
(0-1 [max
feasible])
Contribution
to (or Draw
on) Fund
($ Billion/yr)
Developed
Countries NA
Developing
Countries
Less
Developed
Example 2075 2085 1.0%/year 0.8 0.1 $10 B/yr
Debrief Round 1
Lobbying Session Take 15 minutes outside the plenary hall – mingling
among groups
Discuss ways to meet needs/fulfill global obligations
30
Round 2
Debrief Round 2
Policymaker Mental Models
“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation
process, the concrete environmental
consequences of the various positions
are not clear to all of us.
There is a dangerous void of
understanding of the short and long
term impacts of the espoused
…unwillingness to act on behalf of the
Parties.”
– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator
for Costa Rica, Sept 2008
(Named to lead UNFCCC, May 2010)
Impact of 1 Meter SLR
1 Meter
Head of State Meeting, Copenhagen, Dec
2009
“Let us suppose 100 percent reduction,
that is, no CO2 in the developed countries
anymore. Even then, with the [target of]
two degrees, you have to reduce carbon
emissions in the developing countries.
That is the truth.”
— Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“People tend to forget where it is from. In
the past 200 years of industrialization
developed countries contributed more
than 80 percent of emissions. Whoever
created this problem is responsible for the
catastrophe we are facing.”— Chinese deputy foreign minister He
Yafei
“If there is no sense of mutuality in this
process, it is going to be difficult for us to
ever move forward in a significant way.”
—President Barack Obama
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,692861,00.html
A Sense of Urgency… UNFCCC timeline
Future of COP/UNFCCC
COP21
40
UNFCCC
Created
Kyoto Protocol adopted;
Annex I vs. Non-Annex I
put into practice
Copenhagen fails to replace Kyoto
Protocol
New mandate to
write agreement by 2015 for 2020 (ADP)
Parties decide to
submit their own
contributions during 2015
(INDCs)
Rio 1992 COP3 1997 COP15 2009
HOW WE GOT HERE
COP17 2011 COP19 2013
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Debrief Now that you have experienced this level of global
negotiation, what do you feel called to do?
What were your assumptions at the beginning and how
were they changed as the simulation went on?
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Role of World Climate
Simulation in the Classroom:
What potential benefits/downsides
do you see with this classroom
activity?
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Thank you!
For more information:
climateinteractive.org